Report: NFL believes Tom Brady will accept a shorter suspension

[PatriotReign37]

If it were the Jets, they would have been fined $100,000. 

 

Then reduced to 0 if Geno starts all 16 games.

[PatriotReign37]

I am a scientist as well, actually a physicist and the flaws with the paper were obvious from day one.  I could talk about the lack of detailed error analysis and some technical data analysis details, but I won't.  In fact I will assume the paper is correct.  The real problem wasn't the science, but the scientific logic of the paper.  At every opportunity they take numerical values that most implicates the Patriots.  

Thats not how you do statistical analysis and reads like a cherry picked conclusion set.  In fact simply doing the opposite and taking the values of the Wells report that most benefits the Patriots leads to the opposite conclusion, namely that there was no crime in the first place.  The problem, is that it is precisely this value that they must defend in a court of law with the presumption of innocence.  Indeed thats why you have Nobel Laureates calling out the science.

 

You see it doesn't matter if there is more evidence than not that there was in fact deflation that took place (and I think there is), what you have to show is some measure of statistics that rules out any other PLAUSIBLE alternative scenario, and there own paper shows that there is such a thing with enough generosity in the give/take of psi and measurement errors.  Basically you have to show a 2 sigma confidence bar that such a hypothesis is ruled out, and you simply don't get that in the paper.

 

This might be good enough for a commissioners ruling, but it won't stand up in a court of law with a much higher burden of proof.

 

How much would you like to wager that this season when they check ball pressure after every game that it ranges all over the place depending on conditions and how long each team used their balls on offense?

[southparkcpa]

How much would you like to wager that this season when they check ball pressure after every game that it ranges all over the place depending on conditions and how long each team used their balls on offense?

Dont look now but Goodell is wiping Brady off his chin.  

[PatriotReign37]

Dont look now but Goodell is wiping Brady off his chin.  

 Goodell is going to be looking for another job after Brady is found innocent next year when he drags Goodell into court.

 

 This seasons ball pressure data will exonerate Brady 100%.

[RutgersJetFan]

I am also a scientist and my scientific conclusion is it's the Patriots. **** 'em.

[Jet Fan RI]

I am a scientist as well, actually a physicist and the flaws with the paper were obvious from day one.  I could talk about the lack of detailed error analysis and some technical data analysis details, but I won't.  In fact I will assume the paper is correct.  The real problem wasn't the science, but the scientific logic of the paper.  At every opportunity they take numerical values that most implicates the Patriots.  

Thats not how you do statistical analysis and reads like a cherry picked conclusion set.  In fact simply doing the opposite and taking the values of the Wells report that most benefits the Patriots leads to the opposite conclusion, namely that there was no crime in the first place.  The problem, is that it is precisely this value that they must defend in a court of law with the presumption of innocence.  Indeed thats why you have Nobel Laureates calling out the science.

 

You see it doesn't matter if there is more evidence than not that there was in fact deflation that took place (and I think there is), what you have to show is some measure of statistics that rules out any other PLAUSIBLE alternative scenario, and there own paper shows that there is such a thing with enough generosity in the give/take of psi and measurement errors.  Basically you have to show a 2 sigma confidence bar that such a hypothesis is ruled out, and you simply don't get that in the paper.

 

This might be good enough for a commissioners ruling, but it won't stand up in a court of law with a much higher burden of proof.

 

As it turns out, I am a physicist as well, Ph.D level. I can't believe you read the same report as I did. I see zero evidence of cherry picking of facts in that report. And statistical analysis was done, at a fairly detailed level for this kind of testing, and it is specifically stated that the confidence level revealed by the analysis is not sufficiently high to draw an absolute conclusion. But an absolute conclusion was not required. The standard was "more likely than not," and that's exactly how it was stated.

 

And what are you talking about with respect to a lack of statistical analysis? Did you fail to notice the multi-page statistical model developed in the appendix to Exponent's technical report? From what you say, I am wondering whether you bothered to read the tech report at all.

 

As far as nobel laureates questioning the result, I haven't seen any. Care to provide some links? 

[drdetroit]

The Colts should be suspended for ratting out the pats. Dirty rats.

[BurnleyJet]

I'd just subpoena the two Bozo's who deflated the footballs, and their phone records, along with Tom's, let them see if they want to purge themselves in court. "Did you or did you not ,receive txts and calls from MR Brady to deflate the footballs?" 

Call his bluff, the Jerk thinks he's untouchable. I just hope Suh loses his mind, when the Fin's play Brady, and he gets all Dirty like he does.

.

[The Crusher]

Wouldn't anybody being punished pretty much accept a shorter sentence?

[Il Mostro]

Oh Yeah.

 

The Wells report would never hold up in court. Its 4 million dollar toilet paper.

 

 

You don't get it.  If it goes to court it is not about the fact that Brady cheated -- he did, big ******* surprise.  The legal issue will revolve around the league's ability to hand out and enforce punishment as it sees fit.  What good is the CBA if pussies like Brady act like petulant children and threaten to file a legal action any time things don't go their way.  It has absolutely nothing to do with the Wells report at that stage.  Cheat with impunity -- the Patriot way.

[Il Mostro]

Wouldn't anybody being punished pretty much accept a shorter sentence?

 

 

Depends on the food in the slammer.

[Ex-Rex]

One of the sticking points in the settlement talks so far is that league doesn't want to agree to a deal unless there's an "admission of guilt by Brady on some level," according to NFL.com. How do you solve that problem? According to Cole, Brady would likely sign off on a deal that suspends him for not cooperating with the league during the Ted Wells investigation, but in the potential deal, Brady wouldn't admit to any wrongdoing as Deflategate. Basically, Brady would say, "I didn't cooperate with the league investigation, I understand why I'm being punished," but he wouldn't admit to guilt as far as deflating footballs.

We all know better Tommy boy, but if it makes you feel better about your fu^king self then don't admit it. But we ALL KNOW you did it, even the most ardent Patriots fans KNOWS YOU DID IT. Even though THEY won't admit it either. The Jets may not win at the level of the Patriots but I would rather be what we are and know we do things by the rules than win a dozen Lombardi Trophy's by cheating. THAT is your "legacy" Tommy Boy.  

[Ex-Rex]

 Goodell is going to be looking for another job after Brady is found innocent next year when he drags Goodell into court.

 

 This seasons ball pressure data will exonerate Brady 100%.

You don't get found "innocent" in ANY court of law. Simply NOT GUILTY, but we ALL know he is guilty. These two equipment guys would never DARE f8ck with Tommy Boy's footballs unless he told them too. Belichick is STILL trying to figure in mathematical terms how air pressure and humidity can conspire to deflate the football. He'll get there eventually.

[Ex-Rex]

How much would you like to wager that this season when they check ball pressure after every game that it ranges all over the place depending on conditions and how long each team used their balls on offense?

Of course they will, especially in New England.

[Ex-Rex]

Oh Yeah.

 

The Wells report would never hold up in court. Its 4 million dollar toilet paper.

Yeah but the testimony of the two fired equipment guys would go a long, long way. That is what Tommy Boy is afraid of.

[JohnnyLV]

I am a scientist as well, actually a physicist and the flaws with the paper were obvious from day one.  I could talk about the lack of detailed error analysis and some technical data analysis details, but I won't.  In fact I will assume the paper is correct.  The real problem wasn't the science, but the scientific logic of the paper.  At every opportunity they take numerical values that most implicates the Patriots.  

Thats not how you do statistical analysis and reads like a cherry picked conclusion set.  In fact simply doing the opposite and taking the values of the Wells report that most benefits the Patriots leads to the opposite conclusion, namely that there was no crime in the first place.  The problem, is that it is precisely this value that they must defend in a court of law with the presumption of innocence.  Indeed thats why you have Nobel Laureates calling out the science.

 

You see it doesn't matter if there is more evidence than not that there was in fact deflation that took place (and I think there is), what you have to show is some measure of statistics that rules out any other PLAUSIBLE alternative scenario, and there own paper shows that there is such a thing with enough generosity in the give/take of psi and measurement errors.  Basically you have to show a 2 sigma confidence bar that such a hypothesis is ruled out, and you simply don't get that in the paper.

 

This might be good enough for a commissioners ruling, but it won't stand up in a court of law with a much higher burden of proof.

 

I think the science is completely irrelevant. Completely. The texts are a smoking gun as the Patriots cannot prevent the equipment people from testifying in open court, and let's remember, Brady IS guilty. And when the equipment guys testify, Brady will be hung. .Plus, the burden of proof in this case is not "beyond a reasonable doubt" but "preponderance" of evidence which the NFL has. Also, the NFLPA has no leg to stand on saying Goodell cannot delegate the initial punishment , they would lose that in court..  

 

However, Interesting note here is that the fact that the NFL can completely hang the Pats and Brady in court might make them MORE willing to settle, because in a court case not only would it come out that Brady cheated, but that the cheating was  systematic and long term and that might cause more harm to the NFL than the backlash of reducing the suspension or making it just a fine.This is probably why the NFLPA is pressing the litigation angle as it has a mutually assured destruction element to it.

[The Crusher]

Depends on the food in the slammer.

 

Anybody in jail eating the best food they had belongs there. 

[Thor99]

I am also a scientist and my scientific conclusion is it's the Patriots. **** 'em.

You've obviously never gone to science school.

[JetsFanatic]

What a joke! Maybe Richardson can negotiate his penalty also?

[EM31]

Brady and the Pats want a court case the way they want a hole in the head but he also needs a fig leaf for cover after all of the talking his side has been doing.

 

If he can get a reduction in the penalty then he can skate by with a "for good for the team and for the league to put this behind us" type explanation.  If not then it is a court case with discovery and sworn testimony and that is a horrible prospect for the Patriots if you believe as I do that they have been cheating for years.

 

If nothing else has come out of this it should be clear at this point that Robert Kraft and the New England Patriots are pretty much the furthest thing from "influential" as some of the resident Patriots fans have been trying to sell for the past little while.

 

RObert Kraft is like the favorite chauffeur who has been tolerated in their private club for years and who has even done some decent work (Chauffeuring folks around = working on the Media contracts) but there is a huge difference between fondness for an employee and letting that guy deflower and give an STD to your 18 year old daughter which is how the "full 32" consider the years of rampant cheating that the Patriots have given us.

 

Robert Kraft was put firmly in his place at the owners meeting and I do not expect that to be a one time lesson.

[AFCEastFan]

Brady and the Pats want a court case the way they want a hole in the head but he also needs a fig leaf for cover after all of the talking his side has been doing.

 

If he can get a reduction in the penalty then he can skate by with a "for good for the team and for the league to put this behind us" type explanation.  If not then it is a court case with discovery and sworn testimony and that is a horrible prospect for the Patriots if you believe as I do that they have been cheating for years.

 

If nothing else has come out of this it should be clear at this point that Robert Kraft and the New England Patriots are pretty much the furthest thing from "influential" as some of the resident Patriots fans have been trying to sell for the past little while.

 

RObert Kraft is like the favorite chauffeur who has been tolerated in their private club for years and who has even done some decent work (Chauffeuring folks around = working on the Media contracts) but there is a huge difference between fondness for an employee and letting that guy deflower and give an STD to your 18 year old daughter which is how the "full 32" consider the years of rampant cheating that the Patriots have given us.

 

Robert Kraft was put firmly in his place at the owners meeting and I do not expect that to be a one time lesso

 

Tom Brady and the Patriots franchise are not one and the same.  His argument is that the penalty against him is unfair, excessive, disproportionate to other similar infractions, and based on insufficient proof.  If it comes out in court that Brady's punishment is really an attempt to settle old cheating scores against the team, then that proves Brady's point and he will accept whatever cheating evidence comes out about the team generally as collateral damage.  This is all about Brady personally and Brady's "brand".  

[Savage69]

Tom Brady and the Patriots franchise are not one and the same.  His argument is that the penalty against him is unfair, excessive, disproportionate to other similar infractions, and based on insufficient proof.  If it comes out in court that Brady's punishment is really an attempt to settle old cheating scores against the team, then that proves Brady's point and he will accept whatever cheating evidence comes out about the team generally as collateral damage.  This is all about Brady personally and Brady's "brand".  

It would mean nothing to me if we beat the Pats without Brady no matter what the footballs were inflated at..LOL Of course even if he was out for 4 games(It will probably be 2 if that) he will be playing when the Jets play them at the end of Oct..

[AFCEastFan]

It would mean nothing to me if we beat the Pats without Brady no matter what the footballs were inflated at..LOL Of course even if he was out for 4 games(It will probably be 2 if that) he will be playing when the Jets play them at the end of Oct..

 

I am one of those blind homers who believe that Jimmy G. is close to an average NFL starter right now with a chance to be solidly above average with some experience and development.  If the Jets happen to beat Jimmy G, in my eyes that is a quality win -- I promise you will not hear any "yeah, buts" from me for any game the Pats lose with Jimmy G. as the starter.   

[EM31]

Tom Brady and the Patriots franchise are not one and the same.  His argument is that the penalty against him is unfair, excessive, disproportionate to other similar infractions, and based on insufficient proof.  If it comes out in court that Brady's punishment is really an attempt to settle old cheating scores against the team, then that proves Brady's point and he will accept whatever cheating evidence comes out about the team generally as collateral damage.  This is all about Brady personally and Brady's "brand".  

 

I agree.  Brady may benefit from a court case but I do not think that the Patriots would benefit. 

 

At the end of the day even if this was a strategy dreamed up by the team it is hard to make the case that Brady knew nothing about it.

[BaumerJet]

I agree. Brady may benefit from a court case but I do not think that the Patriots would benefit.

At the end of the day even if this was a strategy dreamed up by the team it is hard to make the case that Brady knew nothing about it.

Actually he might not. and in this week's si article, it was revealed that the NFL could file an appeal against that decision.should they win that during the actual NFL season, he could be suspended for the last four games of the season.

very much like what's happening right now with Adrian Peterson situation so Peterson can practice and play in the regular season, he can only do so until the new appeal has been processed and reviewed. should his appeal be overturned, he would have to abide by the NFL's original decision.

reading might win the battle but more than likely will lose the war.

[EM31]

I also feel that there are a significant number of very powerful billionaires out there who would like to be able to get revenge on a franchise who they feel has been stealing from them over a very long period of time.  I cannot believe that none of them has hired someone with hacking skills to find out what is in those texts from Tom Brady's phone.

 

This is why I believe that Kraft got crushed at the last owners meeting.  The "full 32" already know what the phone records will show even if they cannot currently use that information in a court of law.