Fitzpatrick isnt better than Geno, he just fails more preferably- Football Outsiders

[Matt39]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2015/film-room-ryan-fitzpatrick

 

Film Room: Ryan Fitzpatrick 

by Cian Fahey

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a mirage.

The veteran quarterback is entering his 11th season in the NFL, after signing for his sixth team during the offseason. Fitzpatrick was signed to be Geno Smith's backup for the New York Jets, reuniting with former offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. An untimely injury to Geno Smiththen inserted Fitzpatrick into the starting lineup. Generally when a team goes from its decided-upon starter to a newly acquired backup who has been in the league for more a decade, it is seen as a major negative. Because of Geno Smith's slow start to his career and Fitzpatrick's relatively strong standing for a backup, that is not the case here.

There were widespread examples of pieces suggesting that Fitzpatrick would be an improvement over Smith after the young quarterback broke his jaw. Most of that optimism was based around the idea that Fitzpatrick is a competent, established player while Smith has already proven to be too flawed to start at this level. This despite Smith being just 24 years of age while Fitzpatrick is on the wrong side of 30. Fitzpatrick's statistical output over his career is unspectacular, but it doesn't raise alarm bells about his quality. He has completed 60.2 percent of his passes while averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is an acceptable 123:101, while he has added 11 rushing touchdowns with 54 total fumbles. In comparison, Smith has completed just 57.5 percent of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt with 32 total touchdowns and 34 interceptions, plus 16 fumbles.

(Ed. Note: I should add Football Outsiders to the list of websites suggesting that going from Smith to Fitzpatrick would be a small improvement. In FOA 2015, we projected Smith with -15.8% passing DVOA this season, and Fitzpatrick with -8.7% passing DVOA: still below average, but an improvement. -- Aaron Schatz)

Statistically, Smith is worse than Fitzpatrick. Yet, their play on the field hasn't been that different. Smith is still at an early stage of his career and has played with awful supporting casts to this point. Fitzpatrick is past his prime and has played with various levels of support over his career. Last season was statistically his most impressive. He completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt, both career highs. His touchdown-to-interception ratio was better than ever before as he threw 17 touchdowns with just eight interceptions. Those numbers suggest that Fitzpatrick was the game-managing option the Houston Texans hoped he would be when they named him their starting quarterback. Unfortunately, those numbers only help to paint the mirage that Fitzpatrick has become.

 

Fitzpatrick only played in 12 games for the Texans last year. He was injured late in the year, but had been benched previously for poor performance. Fitzpatrick's numbers remained impressive, but largely for reasons out of his control. 

The Texans had a run-first offense based around the talents of Arian Foster. Therefore, Fitzpatrick only threw 312 passes in 12 games. Just eight of those 312 passes were caught by an opposing defender in bounds, but Fitzpatrick could have thrown many more interceptions. Football Outsiders game charting lists Fitzpatrick with 13 adjusted interceptions thanks to five possible picks dropped by defenders. My own Interceptable Passes project, an even more detailed charting of possible picks (with less strict definitions for "possible interceptions"), assigned 18 interceptions to Fitzpatrick last season, with just two of his caught interceptions being deemed someone else's fault. Some of those were caught, but most weren't. The Interceptable Passes project was designed to isolate the actions of the quarterback and recognize opportunities when he threw passes that were likely to be intercepted because of his actions. It wasn't because of anything Fitzpatrick did that defenders kept dropping or misreading the flight of bad passes he threw, nor should he be forgiven when his two dominant talents at wide receiver -- DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson -- pull inaccurate passes away from waiting defenders.

The Texans starter finished as one of the worst players tracked in that project. He shared a tier with Andy Dalton and Derek Carr, ranking above just four of the 31 charted quarterbacks. Geno Smith ranked five spots higher than Fitzpatrick and was dramatically better over the second half of his season than he was the first. 

Fitzpatrick was the same turnover-prone player he has been throughout his career; luck and a talented supporting cast simply conspired to keep his official interception tally low.

Despite what his reputation suggests, Fitzpatrick is one of the least intelligent quarterbacks to have seen the field during the regular season over recent years. His Harvard education, though often pointed to, carries little applicable value. Not until Harvard revamps its class structure to let students knock each other out while trying to read a blackboard with NFL coverages on it from 20 yards away will any form of that academic education become relevant to being an effective quarterback. What is relevant is what Fitzpatrick has repeatedly done throughout his career: make bad decisions on the field.

Fitzpatrick predetermines decisions and has major problems with timing. He lacks poise in the pocket, so he doesn't understand when to get rid of the ball against pressure or when he needs to hold it in a clean pocket. He can't effectively read a progression on a regular basis. He does move his eyes from receiver to receiver on occasion, but he doesn't actually see the field well. He looks for receivers without recognizing that they are open or about to come open. Often he just cycles through his targets before checking the ball down or forcing it into a receiver who isn't open.

These issues are all prevalent on his interceptions and interceptable passes, particularly those that deal with reacting to pressure. However, they also permeate through the rest of his play.

Take the above play for example. It's third-and-9 on the Pittsburgh Steelers' 28-yard line. The Steelers essentially rush just three players because their fourth rusher coming from the top of the screen is caught in traffic initially. Fitzpatrick has as much time as he could want in the pocket. He looks to the right initially, before frenetically bringing his eyes back to the middle of the field and bouncing them back into the right flat to find Arian Foster. He checks down to Foster, who is well covered just 2 yards downfield. Fitzpatrick had a huge amount of time in the pocket to survey the defense without even resetting his feet. He could have manipulated the defense to create space for one of his receivers or simply let the receiver's routes develop before dropping his eyes to Foster.

The route combinations to the top of the screen could have resulted in a touchdown or a first down if given the chance to develop, while there was a tight end running towards the seam close to where Foster had drawn a linebacker into the flat. Fitzpatrick didn't use the time afforded to him to locate or work an opening in the defense. He immediately gave up on any potential first down to settle for a field goal.

Although this play doesn't stand out as obviously awful like a bad turnover does, it's the kind of play that can destroy an offense when it's repeated so often. Fitzpatrick offered another example of his inability to function effectively from the pocket against the Atlanta Falcons last week.

 

 

It was third-and-9 inside Jets territory. Fitzpatrick had plenty of time and space when he got to the top of his drop. His eyes had immediately focused on the right side of the field, where Brandon Marshall was running a deep curl route from the slot and Bilal Powell was running underneath him from the outside on an in route. At this point of the play, it is blatantly obvious that Marshall won't be open at any point. He has three defenders who have been drawn towards him, leaving Powell alone underneath. Throwing short of the first-down marker on third down isn't always advisable, but in this situation an accurate, simple throw would give Powell a chance to run to the space over the middle of the field and possibly get a first down.

Waiting for Marshall to come open invited pressure upfront, which then forced Fitzpatrick to drop his eyes and scramble. He ran for 3 yards and never had a chance of even getting close to the first-down marker. The offense was forced to punt the ball away.

This is what makes Fitzpatrick a mirage. He avoids the big mistake often enough to make him seem appealing, but all the time he is systematically destroying your offense by not executing simple reads. He is essentially a worse version of Alex Smith, another quarterback who doesn't understand the need to be more adventurous with the ball for his offense to function properly.

Fitzpatrick's lack of timing and field awareness is compounded by his porous arm talent.

 

 

This chart tracks every pass Fitzpatrick threw last season that wasn't intentionally thrown away or tipped at the line of scrimmage. His completion percentage last year was 63.1 percent, but his accuracy percentage was 66.9 percent, as there are 207 accurate passes and 102 inaccurate passes on the above chart. Fitzpatrick obviously had accurate throws that were dropped by his receivers, but the difference between his actual completion percentage and his accuracy percentage suggest that his receivers were routinely bailing him out on inaccurate throws. No receiver did that more than DeAndre Hopkins, a receiver who established himself as one of the very best in the NFL last season. 

Hopkins only had 76 receptions for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns, but it doesn't take long watching him to realize he could have had huge numbers if given even average service from his quarterback. At 6-foot-1 and 218 pounds, Hopkins isn't huge when compared to other top NFL receivers. He does offer his quarterback a huge catch radius though, one that extends around his whole body and is fluid enough to quickly adjust to poorly placed passes. Hopkins has exceptional strength in his grip to not only catch the ball away from his body, but do so against tight coverage before absorbing any hits or knocks to maintain possession of the ball to the ground. On numerous occasions last year, Fitzpatrick could essentially just throw the ball up for grabs and expect Hopkins to dominate the defensive back covering him to come down with the ball. Hopkins offered Fitzpatrick a huge margin for error on back-shoulder throws in particular.

As the above play shows, Fitzpatrick sometimes tested just how far he could stretch that margin for error. This throw against the Philadelphia Eagles favored the cornerback much more than the receiver. The cornerback never got an opportunity to play the ball because he couldn't turn his head while playing aggressive coverage against Hopkins. Even though Hopkins was expecting to reach back for the ball, he instead had to reach through the defensive back to pull the ball in from above his head. This pass was catchable, but inaccurate. It's the type of throw that Fitzpatrick makes to every level of the field with incredible consistency.

Hopkins' exceptional ability to play the ball downfield was repeatedly shown off last year. Fitzpatrick's completion percentage on 20-plus-yard throws was the highest in the NFL, but nine of his 17 completions came on just 13 attempts to Hopkins.

 

 

Hopkins created huge passing windows on back-shoulder throws, plucked the ball out of the air when defensive backs had more favorable positions, and even ran outstanding routes to put himself in vast amounts of space, all of which elevated Fitzpatrick's production despite the quarterback's constant poor ball placement on downfield throws. Throwing downfield to other receivers on the roster was a major challenge. That was even so for Andre Johnson who struggled to win at the catch point because of Fitzpatrick's lack of timing and ball placement. 

Hopkins and Johnson are both amongst the best accuracy-boosting receivers in the NFL. Both players have exceptional strength, fluidity, and awareness at the catch point to dominate defensive backs, but they can also create separation and run precise routes to always be open when they're supposed to be open. In Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, the Jets have one player with that kind of talent who is on the back end of his career, and one player who is too rigid in his skill set to be that effective.

Poor ball placement downfield puts a huge amount of stress on receivers, but poor ball placement on shorter throws is even worse.

Most offenses don't call downfield shots that often, so the passing game is primarily built on short and intermediate throws. Chan Gailey isn't likely to ask Fitzpatrick to push the ball downfield a huge amount in New York this season. Fitzpatrick's issue is that his ball placement is a constant problem, not just a result of his lack of arm strength on deeper passes. The Texans ranked 28th in the NFL in yards after the catch last year. Fitzpatrick's inability to place the ball correctly even on throws as simple as screen passes played a huge role in that low ranking. The above gif is a great example of how his inaccuracy cost his receivers opportunities.

Fitzpatrick continues to get opportunities in the NFL, even if just as a backup, because of how he fails. How you fail as a quarterback in the NFL is very important to coaches. If you stick to the design of the play and play from the pocket but simply can't execute the way you need to, you are much more likely to hang around a team over a player who stands out more as an individual but relies more on his creativity than the coach's creativity. Furthermore, if you have consistent subtle failures instead of less regular major failures, you will be viewed more favorably from a distance. That is where Fitzpatrick falls.

While Geno Smith isn't a high bar to clear, he was still a developing young quarterback who had finished both of his seasons in the NFL playing with consistency and precision. Fitzpatrick is the opposite of that. He has long since proven who he is at this level. There aren't 32 quality quarterbacks to start in today's NFL and he's not one of the exceptions.

No matter how much you can make him look like one.

[Beerfish]

"While Geno Smith isn't a high bar to clear, he was still a developing young quarterback who had finished both of his seasons in the NFL playing with consistency and precision. Fitzpatrick is the opposite of that. He has long since proven who he is at this level. There aren't 32 quality quarterbacks to start in today's NFL and he's not one of the exceptions."

 

The agenda is clear with this line near the end of the article.

 

If both Qb's play stupid, commit turnovers and are careless with the ball then Geno is the better guy because he has an arm.  We won't know about Fitzgerald on this team until he plays several games.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Pretty much. Fitzpatrick is aged hot garbage without the chance of improving, Geno was young hot garbage with an outside shot of improving, that's the big difference. A good season was relying on that outside shot. 

[Villain The Foe]

"While Geno Smith isn't a high bar to clear, he was still a developing young quarterback who had finished both of his seasons in the NFL playing with consistency and precision. Fitzpatrick is the opposite of that. He has long since proven who he is at this level. There aren't 32 quality quarterbacks to start in today's NFL and he's not one of the exceptions."

 

The agenda is clear with this line near the end of the article.

 

If both Qb's play stupid, commit turnovers and are careless with the ball then Geno is the better guy because he has an arm.  We won't know about Fitzgerald on this team until he plays several games.

The only agenda is he one that says we wont know about Fitzpatrick until he plays several games. He's a 10 year vet. How are we so confident that a 3rd year Geno is a bust yet a 10 year vet past his prime with consistent results for 5 other teams we simply cannot know about until game 4 in a Jets uniform? 

[AFJF]

"While Geno Smith isn't a high bar to clear, he was still a developing young quarterback who had finished both of his seasons in the NFL playing with consistency and precision. Fitzpatrick is the opposite of that. He has long since proven who he is at this level. There aren't 32 quality quarterbacks to start in today's NFL and he's not one of the exceptions."

 

The agenda is clear with this line near the end of the article.

 

If both Qb's play stupid, commit turnovers and are careless with the ball then Geno is the better guy because he has an arm.  We won't know about Fitzgerald on this team until he plays several games.

That's horrible...it looks like a lot of work went in to that article, but that one line pretty much gives the reader no reason to continue.  If you want to say you hope Geno comes around, higher ceiling, etc...then that's fine.  But to describe him in that manner shows there is very little objectivity.

[Jetman55]

How about this...less words even - they both suck....

[AFJF]

Valid points on the deep stuff though...that's something the Jets should only show often enough to loosen up defenses.  Fitz's arm strength is probably below average at this point.  Tons if short/intermediate stuff with enough deep shots to keep DB's honest.  Basically, what Hackett refused to do for years with Pennington who had a worse arm than Fitz.

[bostonmajet]

The jets situation is both funny and sad at the same time....

I think Mac did a great job in one year, if next off-season and draft are half as good, we will be in good shape.

I think Bowles may struggle early (as he learns) but is doing an admirable job so far and hope he will be great in a few years.

I think we either need Petty to become the real deal (top 15 QB or we need to find a way to get one - trade, draft, both) or we will never be a great team.

[dbatesman]

F**K YEAH DROPPED INTERCEPTIONS

[Matt39]

F**K YEAH DROPPED INTERCEPTIONS

article seems pretty fugazi and conjecture based for FO. 

[Beerfish]

The only agenda is he one that says we wont know about Fitzpatrick until he plays several games. He's a 10 year vet. How are we so confident that a 3rd year Geno is a bust yet a 10 year vet past his prime with consistent results for 5 other teams we simply cannot know about until game 4 in a Jets uniform? 

Because one has a tougher time predicting when a guy is going to fall off the face of the earth due to age.  It's all about turnovers.  If a vet QB, in a QB friendly scheme with a poor arm is smart enough to not turn the ball over I'll take that at this point over the guy with the good arm, suspect football sense and who has been careless.

 

In the end all of us have our preconceived ideas as to who is the best of a bad lot of jet qbs'.  I truly believe that neither one of these guys is going to be the starter come this time next year.

[dbatesman]

article seems pretty fugazi and conjecture based for FO. 

Fahey's a big Geno stan, IIRC. The little interjection from Schatz undercuts his whole argument, which is kind of funny.

[New York Mick]

That was fun to scroll through on a phone. You can pretty much some it up in one sentence. They both suck. 

[Villain The Foe]

Because one has a tougher time predicting when a guy is going to fall off the face of the earth due to age.  It's all about turnovers.  If a vet QB, in a QB friendly scheme with a poor arm is smart enough to not turn the ball over I'll take that at this point over the guy with the good arm, suspect football sense and who has been careless.

 

In the end all of us have our preconceived ideas as to who is the best of a bad lot of jet qbs'.  I truly believe that neither one of these guys is going to be the starter come this time next year.

This entire article exposed Fitz "football sense" . And also, its about production. This isn't just about a QB friendly system, the entire NFL is geared to the QB. And what do you mean not turn the ball over. The last two years with the Bills (his prime) he threw 39 INT's and fumbled 10 times. 

[NJ]

"While Geno Smith isn't a high bar to clear, he was still a developing young quarterback who had finished both of his seasons in the NFL playing with consistency and precision. Fitzpatrick is the opposite of that. He has long since proven who he is at this level. There aren't 32 quality quarterbacks to start in today's NFL and he's not one of the exceptions."

The agenda is clear with this line near the end of the article.

 

 

Fact.

Doesn't make Fitzpatrick any better of a QB but this dude is smoking out of the Geno's just young and inexperienced pipe.

We all have our own opinions on the subject, but I just took another toke off the Geno's a highly character defective POS and that doesn't translate well to on-field acceptability bong.

 

[slats]

Valid points on the deep stuff though...that's something the Jets should only show often enough to loosen up defenses.  Fitz's arm strength is probably below average at this point.  Tons if short/intermediate stuff with enough deep shots to keep DB's honest.  Basically, what Hackett refused to do for years with Pennington who had a worse arm than Fitz.

Fitz' arm strength is decidedly below average at this point. Probably worse than Pennington's. And this article says something I've said before, that Fitz may be smart, but he hasn't proven himself to be football smart.

[JetBlue]

Fact.

Doesn't make Fitzpatrick any better of a QB but this dude is smoking out of the Geno's just young and inexperienced pipe.

We all have our own opinions on the subject, but I just took another toke off the Geno's a highly character defective POS and that doesn't translate well to on-field acceptability bong.

 

The only agenda is you have a young quarterback entering his third year with more weapons then he has ever had and a more quarterback friendly system and OC.  It only makes sense to see if he can develop into a decent starting qb before turning the reigns over to a 10 year veteran back up, and that is just what Bowles was doing up until the fight.   

[Augustiniak]

fitz's arm is not worse than chad's after the surgeries.  no way.  

[#27TheDominator]

I understand the "dropped interceptions" angle, but this guy is claiming "interceptable passes" that were broken up or caught because of the talent of the WRs?  Seems like that is what a QB is supposed to do.  Take advantage of your WR's ability.  The little blurb everyone is bitching about has a major flaw.  He finished both of his seasons with consistency and precision?  Then wouldn't the fact that the end of 2013 did not carry over to 2014 be concerning?

[BroadwayJoe12]

Fitz' arm strength is decidedly below average at this point. Probably worse than Pennington's. And this article says something I've said before, that Fitz may be smart, but he hasn't proven himself to be football smart.

Yes. I'm beyond tired of hearing that because he's from Harvard he's a smart football player. It's nonsense. He's done nothing to show that. The majority of ivy-league athletes (football, basketball...) are there because of their athletic ability and above average intelligence, nothing more.  Regardless, he could have an IQ of 180+, but his performance on the field does not display that.   Still want him to succeed, obviously, but have seen this story play out for the last ten years or so.

[Villain The Foe]

fitz's arm is not worse than chad's after the surgeries.  no way.  

It may just be. Remember, though Pennington lost velocity on his passes he was always an accurate passer. Fitz may have slightly better velocity but he's nowhere near as accurate. He might as well not even throw the pass.

[Augustiniak]

It may just be. Remember, though Pennington lost velocity on his passes he was always an accurate passer. Fitz may have slightly better velocity but he's nowhere near as accurate. He might as well not even throw the pass.

i guess i was thinking just the velocity.  fitz is not as accurate, yet he still completed 63% last season and i think we'd all sign up for that.  i think a guy who is going to be a much bigger part of the offense than advertised is bilal powell.  he can block and catch, and dump offs will move the chains as fitz gets more comfortable with the wrs.  

[NJ]

The only agenda is you have a young quarterback entering his third year with more weapons then he has ever had and a more quarterback friendly system and OC.  It only makes sense to see if he can develop into a decent starting qb before turning the reigns over to a 10 year veteran back up, and that is just what Bowles was doing up until the fight.   

Couldn't agree more. And I was hoping - along with most others - that Smith would mature a bit and we could benefit from his physical attributes.  

Wasn't holding a lot of hope but there was certainly some.

Don't have much of any today.

[JetBlue]

Couldn't agree more. And I was hoping - along with most others - that Smith would mature a bit and we could benefit from his physical attributes.  

Wasn't holding a lot of hope but there was certainly some.

Don't have much of any today.

I hear you.  I do still have a little hope because it is a long, hard season and injuries happen.  Geno may get another chance; what he does with it is up to him. 

[The Crusher]

Fitz' arm strength is decidedly below average at this point. Probably worse than Pennington's. And this article says something I've said before, that Fitz may be smart, but he hasn't proven himself to be football smart.

I never paid too much attention to the guy.  After looking at his throwing motion I am honestly shocked.  He looks like he is trying to pitch a whiffle ball as hard as he can.

[Augustiniak]

I hear you.  I do still have a little hope because it is a long, hard season and injuries happen.  Geno may get another chance; what he does with it is up to him. 

if he does get another chance, it won't be a big one.  fitz will get before the bye to solidify the job.  if he does, geno gets no shot.  if he sucks, geno may get a shot, but if game 9 or 10 rolls around and they're out of contention, they may bring in petty.  geno needs fitz to get hurt, and for the team to be in contention, to get another shot.  and even if that happens, he better look good, b/c at this point he's not on the roster next year.

[SayNoToDMC]

F**K YEAH DROPPED INTERCEPTIONS

 

I saw the other day Andrew Luck actually sucks cause people be dropping INT's......... If football outsiders was a person I'd ******* punch them and I didn't even read this crap, too long for my attention span. I'm just tired of people telling me sh*t like Kyle Wilson is good when I have eyes.

[JetBlue]

if he does get another chance, it won't be a big one.  fitz will get before the bye to solidify the job.  if he does, geno gets no shot.  if he sucks, geno may get a shot, but if game 9 or 10 rolls around and they're out of contention, they may bring in petty.  geno needs fitz to get hurt, and for the team to be in contention, to get another shot.  and even if that happens, he better look good, b/c at this point he's not on the roster next year.

I agree with you. 

[RutgersJetFan]

Furthermore, if you have consistent subtle failures instead of less regular major failures, you will be viewed more favorably from a distance.

 

[Jet9]

'13 adjusted interceptions'

And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle

Kindly **** right off. 

[Augustiniak]

wonder how many geno had.

[NJ]

I hear you.  I do still have a little hope because it is a long, hard season and injuries happen.  Geno may get another chance; what he does with it is up to him. 

The writers assertion that Geno had turned some kind of corner and with the additional weapons and Gailey we might have been looking good was the pipe smoking in my opinion.

He sounds like he's pissed off that got taken away and now we're stuck with a pus arm that doesn't really make great decisions.

I'm pissed off too - I wish Geno would have had a spiritual awakening and started to act like a leader instead of an entitled sphincter -  and further that all translated to him being a middle of the pack or better NFL QB.

The only difference is I believe the writer gave that I much greater chance of happening than I ever did.  

[Jet9]

wonder how many geno had.

No way of knowing. There's no 9ft tall DBs. 

[faba]

Geno will still get another chance eventually to show he has learned and can be  a leader- show me the results and I will believe it though

[dbatesman]

'13 adjusted interceptions'

And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle

Kindly **** right off. 

BOOYA