Jets offense PPG w/ Fitz at QB predictions

[nyjunc]

Right...but his career numbers show that he has been a very good QB when playing in a tie game or with a lead.  If the defense plays up to its potential, he should be in those types of situations on a fairly regular basis as it won't take much to get the lead.

If the defense plays the way it did while he was in Buffalo, then yes, I think he will have another terrible season with lots of garbage time stats.

let's look up close games(w/in a score) in 4th qtrs. for Fitz:

games he has started:

2005 w/ SL:

led 16-10 entering 4th vs. Philly(philly was on TD drive as 3rd ended), led O to zero pts.  lost 17-16.  by the way, Fitz INt set up GW TD drive for Philly.

0-1

 

2008 w/ Cin:

led 6-3 entering 4th vs. Cle. led O to 6 pts, lost 20-12.  got ball back w/ plenty of tiem down 17-12 and fumbled

0-2

trailed NYJ by 6 entering 4th(thanks to defensive score), leads O to zero pts. loses 26-14

0-3

trailed pitt by TD entering 4th, leads O to zero pts, loses 38-10

0-4

led 13-10 entering 4th vs. philly, led O to zero pts in 4tha nd OT. tied game at 13.

0-4-1

led 17-10 entering 4th vs. Wash. win 20-13

1-4-1

2009 w/ Buf:

led Car 7-2 entering 4th, won 20-9

2-4-1

led 10-9 vs. Hou entering 4th, led O to zero pts, lost 31-10

2-5-1

led 15-10 entering 4th vs. Jax. led O to zero pts, lost 18-15. threw INt in jax territory w/ 1 TO remaining to end game.

2-6-1

trailing Miami 14-7 entering 4th, win 31-14

3-6-1

trail NYJ 16-10 entering 4th, lose 19-13

3-7-1

lead KC 13-10 entering 4th, 1in 16-10

4-7-1

trail NE 17-10 in 4th, lose 17-10

4-8-1

2010 w/ Buf:

trail NE 31-23 entering 4th.  lost 38-31

4-9-1

trail Jax 27-20 entering 4th, lose 36-26

4-10-1

trail bal by 3 in 4th, gets game to OT. lose in OT

4-11-1

trail KC 10-3 entering 4th, lose 13-10 in OT. threw INT in KC territory w/ 2 TOs left on final drive of regulation.

4-12-1

trail Chi 14-13 entering 4th, lose 22-19. GW TD set up by Fitz INT, had 2 drives to tie and failed

4-13-1

trail Cin 31-28 entering 4thm, won 49-31

5-13-1

trailed 13-7 vs. Pitt, lost 19-16 in OT

5-14-1

led Cle 10-6, won 13-6

6-14-1

2011 w/ Buf:

led Cle 17-14, won 24-14

7-14-1

led Ari 16-13, won 19-16 in OT

8-14-1

led 34-28 vs. ten, lost 35-34.  INT set up GW drive for ten

8-15-1

trailed 14-9 to Hou, lost 21-9

8-16-1

trailed 31-2 to NE, lost 37-31

8-17-1

led 12-7 vs. SL, lost 15-12

8-18-1

2013 w/ Ten:

trailed 13-10 vs. KC, lost 26-17. INts set up last 2 FGs for KC

8-19-1

10-10 at Sea, lost 20-13. INT set up last Sea TD

8-20-1

trailed 23-17 vs. Indy, lost 30-27

8-21-1

led Oak 13-12, won 23-19

9-21-1

trailed 15-14 to Indy, lost 22-14. threw late INT 1st and 10 at Ind 33

9-22-1

trailed Den 34-28, lost 51-28

9-23-1

trailed Ari 20-17, lost 37-34 in OT. threw INT for TD in 4th, in OT threw INT to set up GW FG

9-24-1

trailed 16-13 to jax, won 20-16

10-24-1

led Hou 13-7, won 16-10

11-24-1

2014 w/ hou:

trailed NYG 17-10, lost 30-17(w/ big TD pass in final 2 mins!)

11-25-1

led Buf 17-10, won 23-17

12-25-1

trailed 10-7 vs. Dal, lost 20-17 in OT.

12-26-1

trailed Philly 24-21, lost 31-21

12-27-1

led jax 17-13, won 27-13

13-27-1

 

 

Impressive

 

 

[AFJF]

let's look up close games(w/in a score) in 4th qtrs. for Fitz:

games he has started:

2005 w/ SL:

led 16-10 entering 4th vs. Philly(philly was on TD drive as 3rd ended), led O to zero pts.  lost 17-16.  by the way, Fitz INt set up GW TD drive for Philly.

0-1

 

2008 w/ Cin:

led 6-3 entering 4th vs. Cle. led O to 6 pts, lost 20-12.  got ball back w/ plenty of tiem down 17-12 and fumbled

0-2

trailed NYJ by 6 entering 4th(thanks to defensive score), leads O to zero pts. loses 26-14

0-3

trailed pitt by TD entering 4th, leads O to zero pts, loses 38-10

0-4

led 13-10 entering 4th vs. philly, led O to zero pts in 4tha nd OT. tied game at 13.

0-4-1

led 17-10 entering 4th vs. Wash. win 20-13

1-4-1

2009 w/ Buf:

led Car 7-2 entering 4th, won 20-9

2-4-1

led 10-9 vs. Hou entering 4th, led O to zero pts, lost 31-10

2-5-1

led 15-10 entering 4th vs. Jax. led O to zero pts, lost 18-15. threw INt in jax territory w/ 1 TO remaining to end game.

2-6-1

trailing Miami 14-7 entering 4th, win 31-14

3-6-1

trail NYJ 16-10 entering 4th, lose 19-13

3-7-1

lead KC 13-10 entering 4th, 1in 16-10

4-7-1

trail NE 17-10 in 4th, lose 17-10

4-8-1

2010 w/ Buf:

trail NE 31-23 entering 4th.  lost 38-31

4-9-1

trail Jax 27-20 entering 4th, lose 36-26

4-10-1

trail bal by 3 in 4th, gets game to OT. lose in OT

4-11-1

trail KC 10-3 entering 4th, lose 13-10 in OT. threw INT in KC territory w/ 2 TOs left on final drive of regulation.

4-12-1

trail Chi 14-13 entering 4th, lose 22-19. GW TD set up by Fitz INT, had 2 drives to tie and failed

4-13-1

trail Cin 31-28 entering 4thm, won 49-31

5-13-1

trailed 13-7 vs. Pitt, lost 19-16 in OT

5-14-1

led Cle 10-6, won 13-6

6-14-1

2011 w/ Buf:

led Cle 17-14, won 24-14

7-14-1

led Ari 16-13, won 19-16 in OT

8-14-1

led 34-28 vs. ten, lost 35-34.  INT set up GW drive for ten

8-15-1

trailed 14-9 to Hou, lost 21-9

8-16-1

trailed 31-2 to NE, lost 37-31

8-17-1

led 12-7 vs. SL, lost 15-12

8-18-1

2013 w/ Ten:

trailed 13-10 vs. KC, lost 26-17. INts set up last 2 FGs for KC

8-19-1

10-10 at Sea, lost 20-13. INT set up last Sea TD

8-20-1

trailed 23-17 vs. Indy, lost 30-27

8-21-1

led Oak 13-12, won 23-19

9-21-1

trailed 15-14 to Indy, lost 22-14. threw late INT 1st and 10 at Ind 33

9-22-1

trailed Den 34-28, lost 51-28

9-23-1

trailed Ari 20-17, lost 37-34 in OT. threw INT for TD in 4th, in OT threw INT to set up GW FG

9-24-1

trailed 16-13 to jax, won 20-16

10-24-1

led Hou 13-7, won 16-10

11-24-1

2014 w/ hou:

trailed NYG 17-10, lost 30-17(w/ big TD pass in final 2 mins!)

11-25-1

led Buf 17-10, won 23-17

12-25-1

trailed 10-7 vs. Dal, lost 20-17 in OT.

12-26-1

trailed Philly 24-21, lost 31-21

12-27-1

led jax 17-13, won 27-13

13-27-1

 

 

Impressive

 

 

So what was your prediction again?  0-7 PPG or 8-17?

[nyjunc]

So what was your prediction again?  0-7 PPG or 8-17?

I don't care about PPg unless they are helping us win.. I'd rather win 10-7 than lose 30-24

[AFJF]

I don't care about PPg unless they are helping us win.. I'd rather win 10-7 than lose 30-24

That's a completely different discussion.  Any fan is going to want a win at the end of the day no matter what the score.  Just figured it would be interesting to discuss/predict some specifics.

In all reality, every single reply to every single thread could easily be "I don't care as long as we win" but I don't think it would be much fun.

[munchmemory]

I don't care about PPg unless they are helping us win.. I'd rather win 10-7 than lose 30-24

Yup.  At least on paper, with our defense being so potentially dominating, we might end up like the Ravens when they won with Dilfer.  As long as Fitz doesn't.....

[JetFreak89]

let's look up close games(w/in a score) in 4th qtrs. for Fitz:

games he has started:

2005 w/ SL:

led 16-10 entering 4th vs. Philly(philly was on TD drive as 3rd ended), led O to zero pts.  lost 17-16.  by the way, Fitz INt set up GW TD drive for Philly.

0-1

 

2008 w/ Cin:

led 6-3 entering 4th vs. Cle. led O to 6 pts, lost 20-12.  got ball back w/ plenty of tiem down 17-12 and fumbled

0-2

trailed NYJ by 6 entering 4th(thanks to defensive score), leads O to zero pts. loses 26-14

0-3

trailed pitt by TD entering 4th, leads O to zero pts, loses 38-10

0-4

led 13-10 entering 4th vs. philly, led O to zero pts in 4tha nd OT. tied game at 13.

0-4-1

led 17-10 entering 4th vs. Wash. win 20-13

1-4-1

2009 w/ Buf:

led Car 7-2 entering 4th, won 20-9

2-4-1

led 10-9 vs. Hou entering 4th, led O to zero pts, lost 31-10

2-5-1

led 15-10 entering 4th vs. Jax. led O to zero pts, lost 18-15. threw INt in jax territory w/ 1 TO remaining to end game.

2-6-1

trailing Miami 14-7 entering 4th, win 31-14

3-6-1

trail NYJ 16-10 entering 4th, lose 19-13

3-7-1

lead KC 13-10 entering 4th, 1in 16-10

4-7-1

trail NE 17-10 in 4th, lose 17-10

4-8-1

2010 w/ Buf:

trail NE 31-23 entering 4th.  lost 38-31

4-9-1

trail Jax 27-20 entering 4th, lose 36-26

4-10-1

trail bal by 3 in 4th, gets game to OT. lose in OT

4-11-1

trail KC 10-3 entering 4th, lose 13-10 in OT. threw INT in KC territory w/ 2 TOs left on final drive of regulation.

4-12-1

trail Chi 14-13 entering 4th, lose 22-19. GW TD set up by Fitz INT, had 2 drives to tie and failed

4-13-1

trail Cin 31-28 entering 4thm, won 49-31

5-13-1

trailed 13-7 vs. Pitt, lost 19-16 in OT

5-14-1

led Cle 10-6, won 13-6

6-14-1

2011 w/ Buf:

led Cle 17-14, won 24-14

7-14-1

led Ari 16-13, won 19-16 in OT

8-14-1

led 34-28 vs. ten, lost 35-34.  INT set up GW drive for ten

8-15-1

trailed 14-9 to Hou, lost 21-9

8-16-1

trailed 31-2 to NE, lost 37-31

8-17-1

led 12-7 vs. SL, lost 15-12

8-18-1

2013 w/ Ten:

trailed 13-10 vs. KC, lost 26-17. INts set up last 2 FGs for KC

8-19-1

10-10 at Sea, lost 20-13. INT set up last Sea TD

8-20-1

trailed 23-17 vs. Indy, lost 30-27

8-21-1

led Oak 13-12, won 23-19

9-21-1

trailed 15-14 to Indy, lost 22-14. threw late INT 1st and 10 at Ind 33

9-22-1

trailed Den 34-28, lost 51-28

9-23-1

trailed Ari 20-17, lost 37-34 in OT. threw INT for TD in 4th, in OT threw INT to set up GW FG

9-24-1

trailed 16-13 to jax, won 20-16

10-24-1

led Hou 13-7, won 16-10

11-24-1

2014 w/ hou:

trailed NYG 17-10, lost 30-17(w/ big TD pass in final 2 mins!)

11-25-1

led Buf 17-10, won 23-17

12-25-1

trailed 10-7 vs. Dal, lost 20-17 in OT.

12-26-1

trailed Philly 24-21, lost 31-21

12-27-1

led jax 17-13, won 27-13

13-27-1

 

 

Impressive

 

 

[nyjunc]

That's a completely different discussion.  Any fan is going to want a win at the end of the day no matter what the score.  Just figured it would be interesting to discuss/predict some specifics.

In all reality, every single reply to every single thread could easily be "I don't care as long as we win" but I don't think it would be much fun.

I understand your point and it is interesting.  sorry if I affected the thread in a negative way.

 

 

[nyjunc]

Yup.  At least on paper, with our defense being so potentially dominating, we might end up like the Ravens when they won with Dilfer.  As long as Fitz doesn't.....

I don't think he's as good as Dilfer but if he can be as good we have a chance.  Dilfer didn't light up the scoreboard but he made plays.  protect the ball, avoid the disastrous TOs and make big plays here and there and we can go a long way.

[munchmemory]

I don't think he's as good as Dilfer but if he can be as good we have a chance.  Dilfer didn't light up the scoreboard but he made plays.  protect the ball, avoid the disastrous TOs and make big plays here and there and we can go a long way.

Exactly what I'm saying and hope happens.   I remember them winning games with really low scores like 6-3, 9-6, etc.

[nyjunc]

Exactly what I'm saying and hope happens.   I remember them winning games with really low scores like 6-3, 9-6, etc.

they score some points too. they had some higher scoring games but in postseason he really protected the ball and made big plays every game.

[BroadwayJoe12]

I think the offense will be better than predicted and the defense will be worse than predicted. 

[AFJF]

I understand your point and it is interesting.  sorry if I affected the thread in a negative way.

 

 

No problem at all man.  I get that people don't believe in Fitz because he has his limitation  and he's never been a winner.  I was just wondering how people envision him performing.  I'm torn myself to be honest.  Sometimes I see his sideline throws/deep throws and think the offense is going to be too limited to do any damage. 

Then I see his poise and the skill players and think they can be productive.  Biggest issue IMO is going to be how comfortable he's able to get with his receivers after playing only a few quarters together and getting limited reps early on in camp.

[slats]

I think the offense will be better than predicted and the defense will be worse than predicted. 

Bowles did a great job with the Cards' defense last year, with lesser parts. Very interested to see what he does with ours, while still focusing on being the complete head coach. We really haven't seen any scheming yet. 

Offense? Who the hell knows? 

[BroadwayJoe12]

Bowles did a great job with the Cards' defense last year, with lesser parts. Very interested to see what he does with ours, while still focusing on being the complete head coach. We really haven't seen any scheming yet. 

Offense? Who the hell knows? 

While I don't disagree with anything you've said, I think people might be a bit disappointed if they're expecting the '00 Ravens or the '09 Jets. I fully expect them to be a formidable defense, but not world-beaters. I do, however, expect them to increase their turnover margin, which should help out an already improved offense.    

[nyjunc]

While I don't disagree with anything you've said, I think people might be a bit disappointed if they're expecting the '00 Ravens or the '09 Jets. I fully expect them to be a formidable defense, but not world-beaters. I do, however, expect them to increase their turnover margin, which should help out an already improved offense.    

please don't put the '09 Jets in the same sentence as the '00 Ravens.  we easily win the SB w/ the '00 ravens. they wouldn't have blown a double digit lead in the title game.

the '09 jets were ranked #1 but it was not a great D.  this D has more talent and a greater potential.

 

[slats]

While I don't disagree with anything you've said, I think people might be a bit disappointed if they're expecting the '00 Ravens or the '09 Jets. I fully expect them to be a formidable defense, but not world-beaters. I do, however, expect them to increase their turnover margin, which should help out an already improved offense.    

Yes. My biggest complaint about Rex's D was that they didn't stress takeaways nearly enough. Really want to see a big improvement in that area. Not concerned about being #1 or Top 5 or whatever in total yards, but want to see the takeaways up and the points allowed down. I understand your point, though, as some fans do seem to be expecting the '85 Bears. 

[BroadwayJoe12]

please don't put the '09 Jets in the same sentence as the '00 Ravens.  we easily win the SB w/ the '00 ravens. they wouldn't have blown a double digit lead in the title game.

the '09 jets were ranked #1 but it was not a great D.  this D has more talent and a greater potential.

 

Really missed the mark on this one.

[nyjunc]

Really missed the mark on this one.

how did I miss it? you put the '00 ravens and '09 jets in the same category. 

[Jet Nut]

Nah, don't want another thread bashing Fitz and QB play but that's exactly what anyone should guess this will turn into. It's not to rip him, just to discuss.  Lol, ok

[BroadwayJoe12]

how did I miss it? you put the '00 ravens and '09 jets in the same category. 

The statement wasn't to judge the merits or similarities of those two defenses, but to temper the expectations of some. As such, your harangue was needless.

[Jet Nut]

1 TD pass for every 24 attempts for Fitz

1 every 27 for sanchez

1 every 32 for Geno

 

wins(most important stat(

Fitz- 1 win every 2.7 starts

Sanchez every 1.9(4 more wins in 19 less starts)

Geno every 2.6

this is only the most important stat if you're to dumb to analyze why a team won do you just give the QB credit.  Or you're madly in love with a mediocre QB who leads in this attempt to credit the wrong guy..Sanchez went for the ride, he won nothing on his own.  

[batman10023]

+1

I think he will be in that range.  I am would guess towards the lower end, but I'd hope for around 21.  Just a guess though.  Since we are looking at 4 games, the Browns should have a decent D, they have spent enough, but they are planning on a rookie NT, their O should be sketchy and  they totally fell apart down the stretch last year, so it is tough to know what to expect.  Texans put up 23 on them last year, but Mallet was at QB.  Colts and Eagles should give up plenty of points.  The Dolphins game should be the actual test.

yah the range should have been under 10.. 10-20, and 20-30.  be interesting to see where people come out with 20 as the over/under.

[nyjunc]

this is only the most important stat if you're to dumb to analyze why a team won do you just give the QB credit.  Or you're madly in love with a mediocre QB who leads in this attempt to credit the wrong guy..Sanchez went for the ride, he won nothing on his own.  

yep, meaningless fantasy #s tell us all not a QB making big plays to help his team win. we truly have the worst fanbase in sports.

[DoubleDown]

I'm expecting the Jets to be in the 20-24 point range, but I think there is potential to be even better.

I think the Jets will be able to move the ball fairly well on the backs of Marshall, Decker, and Ivory regardless of the quarterback.

People tend to focus on the high number of turnovers in recent years, but another big factor in the lack of offensive production has been poor performance in the red zone.  In the past couple of years, the Jets actually did a decent job of moving the ball down the field, but their drives always sputtered once they reached the red zone.  If Gailey and Fitzpatrick can improve the red zone efficiency (converting TDs instead of settling for FGs, not taking awful 3rd down sacks which take them out of FG range, etc.), I think this offense will be better than people expect.

[Jet Nut]

yep, meaningless fantasy #s tell us all not a QB making big plays to help his team win. we truly have the worst fanbase in sports.

no, you imagining big plays and giving your boy the credit for wins.  

[Larz]

with no TE's, devin smiths rookie season basically shot, no home run hitters or deep threats, the jets offense is limited to long, grind it out drives where a holding penalty brings on the punt team

the good news is they have 2 huge WR's and a beastly back, so they can win that type of game if they can just keep the turnover differential even

I think they will average 22 pts

 

[slats]

with no TE's, devin smiths rookie season basically shot, no home run hitters or deep threats, the jets offense is limited to long, grind it out drives where a holding penalty brings on the punt team

the good news is they have 2 huge WR's and a beastly back, so they can win that type of game if they can just keep the turnover differential even

I think they will average 22 pts

 

Odell Beckham missed the first month of his rookie season, he turned out okay. Might be a little premature to count Devon Smith's rookie year as over. 

[Spoot-Face]

Does PPG stand for "Players Punching Geno"?

 

In all seriousness, if Fitz limits the TOs, I think we can manage around 20 pts a game.

I hope.

[dbatesman]

The statement wasn't to judge the merits or similarities of those two defenses, but to temper the expectations of some. As such, your harangue was needless.

hey nerdbutt, quit posting fantasy #s and start tlaking about the stat that matters: wins

[NYs Stepchild]

Why would I watch the Texans?

 

Why would you spend every day talking about how bad a QB is when you haven't watched him play? Pathetic.

[NYs Stepchild]

actual PPG in games he started was 21 PPG.  still decent but certainly not almost 26 PPG including the D/STs scores.

Are you counting the game where he broke his leg?

[drdetroit]

Fitz will play brilliantly 

[Jet Nut]

I don't think he's as good as Dilfer but if he can be as good we have a chance.  Dilfer didn't light up the scoreboard but he made plays.  protect the ball, avoid the disastrous TOs and make big plays here and there and we can go a long way.

Fitz actually is much better than Dilfer

[drdetroit]

Fitz actually is much better than Dilfer

I don't know about much better but he is at the very least a marginally better player.

[Jet Nut]

I don't know about much better but he is at the very least a marginally better player.

I think the year they won the SB he was under 60%, threw about the same number of TDs to INTs and threw for less than 2,000 yards.  That's pretty lousy, isn't amazing how little he did.