Is Geno Smith a GOOD DEEP BALL THROWER?

[predator_05]

This needs its own thread, since its become a common theme in all the other threads.

Seems to me that the main argument for starting Geno are his PHYSICAL TOOLZ, i.e. a SHTRONG arm that will have DBs scampering out of fear. But how effective is he when throwing the ball downfield? Let's look at some numbers from last year.

Over my morning coffee I was looking into Geno Smith's performances, hoping to find some areas where he excels and some areas where it's a given he'll need to improve. One area I spotted that needed immediate attention was his accuracy on deep balls. He doesn't throw down field very much, but when he does, he is terrible.

Geno has only attempted 37 passes that travel over 20 yards in the air. Considerably less than the league leader (Andrew Luck - 81). In fact, 28 quarterbacks have attempted more throws of over 20 yards. With Percy Harvin coming on board and Eric Decker, you would think we would try more shots downfield to our receivers, however when you look at Geno's performance, it makes sense for the Jets to pull back on the reigns.

Of the 37 passes attempted, he has completed just 6 of them with 2 passes being dropped. Even if you factor in those passes, he has a league low completion percentage of 21.6%. Lower than a lot of young QB's like Teddy Bridgewater (42.1%), Zach Mettenberger (47.8%) and even lower than rookies Blake Bortles (31/9%) and Derek Carr (24.1%).

If that wasn't bad enough, Geno has thrown 7 of his 12 interceptions on the season on throws more than 20 yards. Which means he's thrown more interceptions than pass completions on balls travelling downfield. That is an alarming rate given the amount of attempts. For example, the 7 interceptions thrown lead the league, more than Jay Cutler (6 on 59 attempts), Matt Stafford (5 on 55 attempts) and Nick Foles (6 on 59 attempts).

If that were not bad enough, he has only 2 touchdowns and 224 yards throwing downfield. Looking at the same players we looked at above, that is considerably less than Jay Cutler (6 TD's for 647 yards), Nick Foles (9 TD's for 578 yards) and Matt Stafford (7 TD's for 669 yards).

Are the Jets simply not protecting Geno long enough for deep plays to develop? Well actually, that couldn't be further from the truth. Geno Smith has more than 2.6 seconds to throw on 59.8% of his drop-backs, which is the highest rate in the league. However he is only completing 47.6% of his passes when given over 2.6 seconds to throw, good for 24th best out of 27 QB’s who have played in at least 50% of their team snaps.

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2014/12/16/7401013/deep-ball-problems-for-geno-smith

Obviously, the pro Geno guys will retort with the old 'HE DIDN'T HAVE ANY WEAPONS BRO!!!!111'.

But equally inexperienced rooks like Teddy Bridgewater and Zach Mettenberger had no WEAPONS either...yet, still had much better accuracy throwing deep? Hell, they might have been a little bit better if they had Eric Decker for 15 games, or Percy Harvin.

Based on what we now know, does Geno really deserve to start on the basis of having a strong arm...even though he has proven to be horribly inaccurate when he gets plenty of time to throw?

[predator_05]

Some more interesting numbers, from our very own Jetnation article:

http://www.jetnation.com/2015/06/25/five-reasons-to-be-worried-about-new-york-jets-geno-smith/

None of this is particularly revealing...anybody who watches our games would know this, but some guys might need a quick reminder:

3) Proving People Wrong Isn’t Always a Good Thing

The age-old adage in the NFL is that if you give any quarterback enough time to throw the ball, he’ll pick you apart.  That has been far from true in Smith’s case.

According to PFF.com, Smith had more time from snap to throw (3.10 seconds) than any QB in the NFL other than Russell Wilson (3.20).  Even with that being the case, he was better than just two other quarterbacks (Josh McCown and Blake Bortles) when given 2.5 seconds or more to get the pass off, and completed only 50.2% of his passes in those situations.

Some fans point to Smith’s lack of weapons and in fairness, it’s not one to be discounted.  However, it appeared time and again that regardless of the name on the Jersey, Smith often missed his target when the opportunity to make  a play presented itself.

In the infamous “moviegate” game against the San Diego Chargers, Smith turned in one of his worst performances as a pro going 4-12 for 27 yds and one interception before being pulled.  This, despite the fact that he had multiple opportunities to make plays and move the ball.

Consistently failing to hit open receivers doomed the offense against the Chargers but it wasn’t because they weren’t open, it was because Smith wasn’t hitting them when they were, regardless of whether he had a clean pocket or was under pressure.

4) Deep Ball Struggles

Utilizing PFF data once again for this category, Smith threw only 45 passes that traveled 20 yards or more through the air, tying him for last in the NFL with Kyle Orton of the Bills, so you can’t ignore the fact that Smith still led the NFL in interceptions on deep passes with eight.

Completing just 31% of those passes puts Smith ahead of only Blake Bortles and Derek Carr in terms of deep ball accuracy, whereas Fitzpatrick, his projected back-up, ranked second in the NFL behind only Matt Ryan with a 52.6% completion percentage while throwing 6 TD’s and 3 INT’s to Smith’s 5 TD’s and 8 INT’s.

Smith’s struggles in throwing the ball down field was a key this season as the Jets lost several games by a touchdown or less.

In a pair of home losses to the division rival Dolphins and Patriots by 3 and 1 point respectively, poorly thrown would-be touchdowns cost the Jets valuable points.

If Smith is going to be a successful NFL quarterback, he’s going to have to become a more accurate passer when his receivers beat coverage down the field.

 

 

[predator_05]

Pretty surprised at that last statistic: Fitzpatrick, had a far more accurate deep ball completion rate than Geno.

I really don't know how people can continue taking this line of argument in favor of Geno. Seems pretty irrational to me.

[Be_a_Jet]

Thank you for posting this. People needed to wake up. 

 

[nyjunc]

blind #s can tell us anything, how can anyone watching Fitz think he has a better deep ball than geno?

[FlagmanL11]

Face the facts... we have no QB that can be consistent for a 16 game schedule.  They can have a good game here and there, but more often than not they stink up the joint.  Fitz yesterday did not want to throw the ball down the field.  He was looking for the short pass all day long.

[Lego My Lageman]

butbutbut he can run!

[BigRy56]

...but his arm is so strong!!! Geno can throw it out of the stadium!!!!

Can you imagine Fitz when the Winter winds start swirling? We need a quarterback with a cannon! Somebody call Jared Lorenzen.

[nyjunc]

Face the facts... we have no QB that can be consistent for a 16 game schedule.  They can have a good game here and there, but more often than not they stink up the joint.  Fitz yesterday did not want to throw the ball down the field.  He was looking for the short pass all day long.

it looks to me that he wants to protect his comp %. 

[Be_a_Jet]

blind #s can tell us anything, how can anyone watching Fitz think he has a better deep ball than geno?

If those are blind numbers to you than you just aren't reading. They are detailed and specific. 

Making deep throws isn't just about having the stronger arm. I'm sure Geno has a stronger arm than the old man Fitz. 

[#27TheDominator]

2013 he was among the tops in the league.  Holmes and HIll are superior deep threats to gimpy Decker and a half season of Harvin. 

http://regressing.deadspin.com/charts-who-are-the-best-deep-passers-in-the-nfl-1469917039

After 2013 everybody was saying we had to get him more deep opportunities.  Some of that may just be luck, or changes in coverage, but posting blogs about 2014 doesn't change much.  2014 the team was in a shambles the coaching staff knew they were all gone by the time Harvin was brought in.  The guy played for 2 years, one year he was among the league leaders the next he had a poor percentage of a small amount of attempts.  This was from November 2013, but at the end of the year his long ball percentage was better comparatively to his short passing game. 

 

[nyjunc]

If those are blind numbers to you than you just aren't reading. They are detailed and specific. 

Making deep throws isn't just about having the stronger arm. I'm sure Geno has a stronger arm than the old man Fitz. 

#s w/o context are blind.  we don't know the play, don't know the coverage, don't know if he was pressured, don't know if WR ran wrong route, don't know anything other than he threw it deep.

 

 

[Paradis]

lol..

 

Fitz is 35-56.. say that out loud.

 

Of those 35 wins, 20 have come against CLE, OAK, MIA, KC, JAX, and WSH... during their darkest days.

 

Do you really need to be walked through this? 

[john461167]

Great stats, and very telling.

The Geno apologists will go to any lengths to defend their hero.

 

[predator_05]

blind #s can tell us anything, how can anyone watching Fitz think he has a better deep ball than geno?

"Screw your numbers, Geno is better than Fitz BECAUSE.... I SAID SO!!!!"

 

[nyjunc]

"Screw your numbers, Geno is better than Fitz BECAUSE.... I SAID SO!!!!"

 

have you watched him throw jump ball after jump ball into double/triple coverage the last 3 weeks? are you impressed w/ that?

[jetscrazey]

Geno is NOT a good deep ball thrower because he lacks accuracy.  Deep ball QBs need 2 things: arm strength and accuracy.  Just having arm strength isn't enough

[FloridaJetsFan]

This needs its own thread, since its become a common theme in all the other threads.

Seems to me that the main argument for starting Geno are his PHYSICAL TOOLZ, i.e. a SHTRONG arm that will have DBs scampering out of fear. But how effective is he when throwing the ball downfield? Let's look at some numbers from last year.

Obviously, the pro Geno guys will retort with the old 'HE DIDN'T HAVE ANY WEAPONS BRO!!!!111'.

But equally inexperienced rooks like Teddy Bridgewater and Zach Mettenberger had no WEAPONS either...yet, still had much better accuracy throwing deep? Hell, they might have been a little bit better if they had Eric Decker for 15 games, or Percy Harvin.

Based on what we now know, does Geno really deserve to start on the basis of having a strong arm...even though he has proven to be horribly inaccurate when he gets plenty of time to throw?

I'm shocked that some of the more staunchly blind Genoers haven't made it here yet ...

 

[Scoop24]

Great stats, and very telling.

The Geno apologists will go to any lengths to defend their hero.

 

who was the deep threats he was throwing too last year ??

[#27TheDominator]

Great stats, and very telling.

The Geno apologists will go to any lengths to defend their hero.

 

I don't see too many stats, but I see a great deal of blogging.

[joewilly12]

who was the deep threats he was throwing too last year ??

Was it Greg Salas or Clyde Gates future hall of famers 

[predator_05]

#s w/o context are blind.  we don't know the play, don't know the coverage, don't know if he was pressured, don't know if WR ran wrong route, don't know anything other than he threw it deep.

 

 

 

Dude, why don't you actually READ some of the posts that you're responding to? It would help a lot.

We DO KNOW he wasn't pressured - that's accounted for in the amount of time he had from snap to throw, which was calculated to be 3.10 seconds. he had more time to throw than anyone in the league other than Russell Wilson.

Its all there in the 2nd post in this thread.

 

If you're trying to argue against the points raised in the thread, why not give us some of your own observations on the coverage, the play, or the WR's route running. "Because i said so" isn't a real response

 

[elgoman]

When Geno's weapons were healthy in 2013 and 2014--Santonio Holmes, Decker and (to an extent) Harvin--I remember Geno completing a good deep pass about every game and sometimes a few good deep passes.  So evidence suggests he is at least an average deep passer given weapons. In a Jets offense with Devin Smith and Marshall, Geno will likely be at least better than Fitzpatrick and probably very good. 

[nyjunc]

 

Dude, why don't you actually READ some of the posts that you're responding to? It would help a lot.

We DO KNOW he wasn't pressured - that's accounted for in the amount of time he had from snap to throw, which was calculated to be 3.10 seconds. he had more time to throw than anyone in the league other than Russell Wilson.

Its all there in the 2nd post in this thread.

 

If you're trying to argue against the points raised in the thread, why not give us some of your own observations on the coverage, the play, or the WR's route running. "Because i said so" isn't a real response

 

snap to throw accounts for buying time w/ his legs? again, these are blind #s. 

[JohnnyLV]

I'm shocked that some of the more staunchly blind Genoers haven't made it here yet ...

 

It is not being a Geno-er as much as knowing that when your 10 year veteran demonstrates how limited he is and how he is incapable of winning, it is not unreasonable to want to see if the third year college-spread QB, that DID improve last year and DID play very well at the end of the season -it is not unreasonable to want to see if that improvement can continue under a better OC, better HC and with better weapons. Especially since that third year QB can literally do things the JAG veteran can not with his arm and feet, and there is no way we are winning anything with Fitz. Why not see what we have in Geno? NO ONE, not the Geno haters or the Fitzbashers knows what Geno will do but especially since the Jets staff did make him #1 in camp, and he was outperforming Fitz in camp it is in the Jets best interest to find out.

If he sucks, you move on. If he is good, awesome. If you don't play him, what do you do next year? Force Petty? Competition with Petty and Geno? Clearly Fitz is not any more than a 1 year stop gap at best.

[predator_05]

When Geno's weapons were healthy in 2013 and 2014--Santonio Holmes, Decker and (to an extent) Harvin--I remember Geno completing a good deep pass about every game and sometimes a few good deep apsses. So evidence suggests he is a good deep ball thrower if given weapons. When he doesn't have weapons, he isn't a good deep ball thrower. 

Decker and Harvin weren't there in 2013. He was one of the worst deep ball throwers in the league with Decker and Harvin in 2014.

[56mehl56]

That's funny you ask him to give his own observations , when all you did is just pull someone else's article and stats or is that STATZ

[predator_05]

That's funny you ask him to give his own observations , when all you did is just pull someone else's article and stats or is that STATZ

blind numbers, apparently.

[#27TheDominator]

 

Dude, why don't you actually READ some of the posts that you're responding to? It would help a lot.

We DO KNOW he wasn't pressured - that's accounted for in the amount of time he had from snap to throw, which was calculated to be 3.10 seconds. he had more time to throw than anyone in the league other than Russell Wilson.

Its all there in the 2nd post in this thread.

 

If you're trying to argue against the points raised in the thread, why not give us some of your own observations on the coverage, the play, or the WR's route running. "Because i said so" isn't a real response

 

That is an average.  It doesn't mean he wasn't pressured.  Geno has tended to extend plays, often to his detriment, by running around back there.  That does not mean that he got to step into a clean pocket.  Some of that has been piss poor guard play that flushed him and some is him getting happy feet too soon.  I think that nyjunc is as full of sh*t as the next guy, but that doesn't mean that numbers without context are definitive.

Fitzpatrick will, rightfully, get the Dolphins game.  If he plays well they will  keep rolling with him.  If he sh*ts the bed they will take the bye week to reassess.  Everybody knew he was getting until the bye. 

Why don't you stop restricting your numbers to last year and stop using the "phrase" GOOD DEEP BALL THROWER?   It sounds ridiculous.  Why not try deep passer?  None of these guys are Daryle Lamonica, but Geno is a hell of a lot closer.  I would like to see how Gailey intends you use him and I would want him used, not treated like a delicate flower - force him to run now and then on read option stuff to keep the D worried about it (and wasting practice time on during the week) and simplify his reads which it seems Gailey is good at.

 

[Mike135]

Decker and Harvin weren't there in 2013. He was one of the worst deep ball throwers in the league with Decker and Harvin in 2014.

Decker wasn't healthy 'til the last 4 games of the season.  Guy was playing hurt or out the rest of the season.

[Jet Nut]

He doesn't have to be real good, don't have to look at numbers, he just has to be better than Fitz.  Not a half season of Mettengerger or Bridgewater.

And given Deckers injury a year ago, he didn't have the tools that they did.  

[elgoman]

Decker and Harvin weren't there in 2013. He was one of the worst deep ball throwers in the league with Decker and Harvin in 2014.

I didn't say Decker and Harvin were there in 2013.

Holmes was, and Geno was at least an average deep thrower in 2013. Geno was ranked top 5 to top 10 in deep accuracy, deep attempts and deep yards per attempt in 2013. Did he throw lots of INTs? Yes, but so did Andrew Luck in Arian's scheme, and Luck didn't produce, the same raw efficiency that Geno produced downfield.

 

Then in 2014 Geno threw good deep balls to Harvin (who didn't begin playing until after the Buffalo game) and to Decker (who wasn't healthy until the last part of the 2014 season). So the evidence suggests that Geno is at least an average deep ball thrower when he has one or two weapons. The rest of the time Geno was throwing deep balls to JAGs and Kerley.

An offense will Marshall, Devin Smith AND Decker will catapult him into "good" if he isn't there already.

[Scoop24]

Decker and Harvin weren't there in 2013. He was one of the worst deep ball throwers in the league with Decker and Harvin in 2014.

decker was hurt a lot last season. But when he played him and Geno had very good chemistry .. Plenty of 15+ yard passes in that last game vs the Dolphins.. 

Harvin is one of the worst deep threats in the league . Even with his great speed he doesn't play Deep balls well hell that game Geno had 3 ints back to back  it was forced deep balls to Harvin to watch him fall down . Hence why he is never used strictly as Reciever .. 

 

You think any WR is catching 200 yards in game playing with Fitz?  He gonna need 20 catches that day just to come close .

[#27TheDominator]

That "poor throw" to Harvin against Revis is one of the most over and mis-analyzed passes in history.  Only slightly better than the "missed" receiver on the flea flicker in the Super Bowl III

 

[john461167]

who was the deep threats he was throwing too last year ??

LOL

Here come the excuses.