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Geno Smith (2014) Vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (2015)


win4ever

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You might be right, though so far, the offense hasn't been particularly pleasant to watch.  

It's amusing to me that, as Jets fan, what we debate is "Would Geno suck more or less than a mediocre Fitz?"

Woot woot.

lol, unfortunately true ... Also unfortunately the answer is most likely more

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I'm sorry, I don't have the energy... you said Fitz was having the same type of season (my interpretation was right now, for the Jets) as what Geno had the past 2 years. Now you are rewinding, or resetting context to be their first XYZ amount of passes thrown? 

This is retarded.

We lost a ******* football game. Get over it. We have two sh*tty QBs to pick from, I like the one with the beard because when he drops bad to pass I feel in my stomach like he's going to complete a pass. Geno, Sanchez, Penny, and many other Jet QBs gave me a sick feeling in my stomach on every drop back because I expected the worst.

You can do whatever you want with subsets of stats and an ever-changing basis for your argument... I'm happy to go with my gut.

My gut says the guy with the beard is going to make this a better football season. Not perfect, but better.

I like better.

Lol.

So I provided stats that showed they were having similar statistical seasons based on averages, and you said it was a sample size issue comparing 3 games to 2 seasons.  I provided a larger sample size equalized to a similar amount of passes to start their career, and now you say it's a gut issue?  And I'm the one backtracking?  

I don't intend to change your mind on anything, nor does it matter what you think (or what I think) because I doubt the Jets coaching staff is reading this forum for evaluations.  You can trust your gut all you want, I have no problem with it.  But if you are going to argue something, please don't make up false accusations.  If you don't believe in statistics, I can respect that, but trying to twist this into backtracking is petty.    

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I realized that Geno-haters are not about hating his play, it is about hating Geno the person.

It's probably true, but then those same people should abhor the return of Sheldon Richardson, or a locker room problem like Marshall as well.   Locker room presence matters to fans if you don't produce, but if you actually perform on the field, I don't think anyone would care.  One example was Sanchez, when the Jets were winning, everyone was wax poetic about how he was leading Jets West, how he's taking responsibility and growing.  As soon as he started sucking, he's just a party animal and irresponsible.  What stayed consistent was his mediocre play that was masked by the defense at first, and then unmasked when that fell apart.  

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Wait, what? Do you really think Fitz lead this team to victories in the previous 2 games? I mean, the 10 turnovers and a total of 51 points scored. Thats pretty poor but our D held its own from the opponents from coming back. The one game the D only managed one turnover and gave up 17 points, Fitz didn't stand a chance. And I haven't even started talking about the supporting cast yet. The one game Fitz didn't have a #2 WR....Geno didn't even have a #1 WR the entire season until the last few games and we all know how he performed in those games, the ones you wanted the Jets to lose out so we could pick Leonard Williams as the 3rd overall instead of Leonard Williams as the 6th overall.

Fitz was erratic in all 3 games. I don't care if he can complete a pass at the LoS and fabricate a high completion percentage.

You're missing the point.

I've seen our defense put a bow on a win, and Geno gives it away. Fitz has not done that. I never said he's playing QB perfect, I don't know what you guys are failing to understand. The only stat that matters is winning 2 out of 3 games... the QB didn't lose the game in Philly. That was a team loss.

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I realized that Geno-haters are not about hating his play, it is about hating Geno the person.

Personally, I hate wasting every football season rooting for a team that loses.

Geno has proven time and again that he can single-handedly lose games. I don't need to "see more" of him, or "see how he does" with different parts around him. When a game is on the line, and he has the chance to make a play to win it or lose it, he loses it too much for my liking. 

No amount of statistical comparison, accusations of identity politics at play, or anything else is going to change the simple fact that I, as a fan, have watched him lose us more games that I'm willing to tolerate. 

Fitzpatrick, perhaps no better, at least hasn't done that. Therefore, I'm willing to ride with Fitz until he does.

It's simple ******* math really... we're winning more than we are losing. 

I don't understand why the blockheaded contingency of our fan base would rather win the "backup QB should get a chance with these amazing playmakers we have" argument, over us just winning ******* football games.

 

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Lol.

So I provided stats that showed they were having similar statistical seasons based on averages, and you said it was a sample size issue comparing 3 games to 2 seasons.  I provided a larger sample size equalized to a similar amount of passes to start their career, and now you say it's a gut issue?  And I'm the one backtracking?  

I don't intend to change your mind on anything, nor does it matter what you think (or what I think) because I doubt the Jets coaching staff is reading this forum for evaluations.  You can trust your gut all you want, I have no problem with it.  But if you are going to argue something, please don't make up false accusations.  If you don't believe in statistics, I can respect that, but trying to twist this into backtracking is petty.    

I genuinely thought you were backtracking. I probably misunderstood what you were trying to prove with the stats in the first place. Doesn't matter... the point about my gut being all I need on Fitz, plus the win column, that's my point. Don't care how it does or does not align to your stats. 

I don't believe in benching a QB who has won the lockerroom, won more games than lost, and while he has struggled, he's still giving the fans more to be excited about than not... 

I'm posting for a much-needed distraction from the giant dump life just took on my wife and I. Sorry if I mangled whatever it was you were trying to say... I've just read nothing but idiotic "start Geno" threads and frankly, it's a ******* joke. Our fans will never deserve a winner.

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Similar season?

Why don't you post the stats on how many game losing turnovers Geno had vs. Fitz, because as of right now, you could argue that only 1-2 of Fitz's turnovers have been costly, and potentially none of them is the reason we lost 1 game so far... while Geno single handedly gave games away on the regular the past 2 years.

This makes no sense. Because the Jets defense this year has been good. Lots of turnovers. Last year, not so much.

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So wait, what is the argument here?  You are happy with Fitzpatrick being mediocre so the team looks elsewhere for a franchise QB?  But you think Geno being mediocre will prevent the front office from searching for a franchise QB?  Geno still has another year left on his contract, so if he doesn't actually perform this year, there is no need to rework his deal.  However, this also hints at the bigger picture that the front office will be blinded by what is clearly mediocre performance as you point out and invest in Geno.  If the front office buys into a performance as you describe, then why would you trust them to find a franchise QB anyway?  By believing in a QB that both you and I can see are mediocre (if he puts up the stats you reference in Gailey's system) and they pay up for him, then they are idiots in the first place and we're not going anywhere anytime soon.  

Most of finding a franchise qb is luck. No way in hell Seattle, Patriots, Raiders, Vikings, or Baltimore thought their qbs would be as good as they have been when they drafted them, otherwise those qbs go much higher. Hell, a lot of getting a good qb is draft position, both the Titans and Bucs lucked out in a really top heavy qb class, landing them Mariota/bucs. Point being, most franchises are incompetent when it comes to drafting qbs. Bridgewater should've never lasted until where he went, and Carr should've went much higher, higher then Bortles at least. Now as for the Jets, they have a bad history of holding onto bad qbs which seems to be continuing with this front office with how they immediately declared Geno the starter. This is problematic cause basically the best qb right now in college is very similar to Bridgewater (Jared Goff) and could face a similar fall. The last thing I want is the Jets passing on another qb in favor of a another year of Geno Smith, which is a very valid possibility if he shows improvement, no matter how small.

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I think that's the issue and the biggest reason they haven't made the move back when Geno became healthy.  But I feel like that's something that the Jets made a mistake on with Sanchez, where they relied on the wins as a measuring stick and it came back to bite us after the real reasons for those wins (the defense) came back down to Earth.  Even this year, I think it's safe to assume the first two wins, the biggest contributor was the defense and all the turnovers they got. 

The reason is Geno sucks. If you see Geno this year that means the season is over.

Sent from my Venue 8 7840 using Tapatalk

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Dear God.... Make it stop!!!!!!

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the quarterback. The Jets are 2-1 with him at the helm. If he continues his subpar play from last week and the Jets keep losing, Geno will be the quarterback. 

This is such a tiresome argument. Chad vs. Whomever was the flavor of the month... Sanchez vs. Tebow... Geno vs. Simms... 

Leave it alone!!! Bowles will handle it!

1. QB Controversy + Rex Withdrawal = 80+% of this forum's content so you are fighting a losing battle wanting it to stop

2. To his credit Win4Ever is trying to inject actual data into the discussion rather than subjective "Geno sucks" or "Fitz is hot garbage" sentiment.  I agree with you the argument is tired but the approach here is quite a bit different than where most threads go...

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2. To his credit Win4Ever is trying to inject actual data into the discussion rather than subjective "Geno sucks" or "Fitz is hot garbage" sentiment.  I agree with you the argument is tired but the approach here is quite a bit different than where most threads go...

I agree it is an interesting approach he is taking to the issue.  Plus, when a poster said it was unfair to compare 3 games to two years, he compared the first part of each's career, which I thought was a very accommodating thing to do.  Unless Fitz picks it up and improves, I want to see Geno get a chance to throwing to Brandon Marshall, a healthy Decker, and the rest of the new offense.

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This makes no sense. Because the Jets defense this year has been good. Lots of turnovers. Last year, not so much.

If I remember correctly, the Jets were on pace for the fewest forced turnovers in a season ever through the first half of last season.  This also happened to coincide with some of Geno's worst moments and performances of his career.

It's not a coincidence.  Turnovers are the single biggest factor in football when it comes to wins and losses.  Even bigger than the quarterback.

Pointing out that Fitzpatrick is winning is a lazy argument.  The defense has played the biggest role in the wins by far (mostly due to forced turnovers), and Fitzpatrick has continued his career long, well documented mediocrity and disappointing play.

Give the younger, more physically talented player a chance.  Geno was the starter, Fitzpatrick was brought in to be a backup.  Put Fitzpatrick back where he belongs after the bye, and let's go back to Plan A.

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Because the last thing I want is Geno Smith having a 59% completion rating, and having a 16-20 td int rating and having our team invest in his future (which would be good stats for Geno). Geno is not the future, neither is Fitz, but the team is willing to move on fast from Fitz, compare that to Geno who Gailey was jizzing all over his arm strength early on in the season. Geno isn't a franchise qb, people need to get that through their head. 

Geno has great arm strength and great decision making skills in 7on7 drills

As I have said before Fitz has stepped up in the pocket like a real QB does more in 3 games than Geno has his entire career. You can make a case most of Fitz Int's so far this year were not his fault 

As of now Fitz has NOT cost us a game. Sure hes certainly not lit it up but lets let the season play on and shut down these ridiculous threads . You want to pass blame for our first loss there is plenty to go around least of which was Fitz fault

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I genuinely thought you were backtracking. I probably misunderstood what you were trying to prove with the stats in the first place. Doesn't matter... the point about my gut being all I need on Fitz, plus the win column, that's my point. Don't care how it does or does not align to your stats. 

I don't believe in benching a QB who has won the lockerroom, won more games than lost, and while he has struggled, he's still giving the fans more to be excited about than not... 

I'm posting for a much-needed distraction from the giant dump life just took on my wife and I. Sorry if I mangled whatever it was you were trying to say... I've just read nothing but idiotic "start Geno" threads and frankly, it's a ******* joke. Our fans will never deserve a winner.

I care nothing more than the Jets winning when it comes to sports.  Honestly, a Jets loss ruins my day and pretty much my workday the day after as well, and a Jets win and there is sunshine in the world.  So I understand the attachment to the team.  

I'm advocating Geno because I feel he has a better shot to help the Jets win now and in the future if need be.  If he sucks, we can move on to a different QB until we find a winner.  Gone are the days of hiding the QB, and just getting by with a good team.  My theory is that, the Jets have won because they got a high amount of turnovers in the first game.   If the defense performs top notch, the Jets will win more times than not because turnovers are huge.  However, if the defense

Cleaveland:  The Jets scored 4 TDs.  For three of those TDs, the Jets offense drove 65 yards combined on offense.   To me, that's the defense putting them in a great position (defense and Marshall making a great play) to win rather than the offense doing much.  

Indy:  The Jets scored 2 TDs, with one of those TD drives lasting for 9 yards total.  

Those are two wins where the defense was the main catalyst to wins.   

We'll agree to disagree on this one, because neither of us can be proven right/wrong until the opportunity comes for Geno.

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Most of finding a franchise qb is luck. No way in hell Seattle, Patriots, Raiders, Vikings, or Baltimore thought their qbs would be as good as they have been when they drafted them, otherwise those qbs go much higher. Hell, a lot of getting a good qb is draft position, both the Titans and Bucs lucked out in a really top heavy qb class, landing them Mariota/bucs. Point being, most franchises are incompetent when it comes to drafting qbs. Bridgewater should've never lasted until where he went, and Carr should've went much higher, higher then Bortles at least. Now as for the Jets, they have a bad history of holding onto bad qbs which seems to be continuing with this front office with how they immediately declared Geno the starter. This is problematic cause basically the best qb right now in college is very similar to Bridgewater (Jared Goff) and could face a similar fall. The last thing I want is the Jets passing on another qb in favor of a another year of Geno Smith, which is a very valid possibility if he shows improvement, no matter how small.

Well you said, that investing in a QB prevents a regime from finding a franchise QB.  Yet, the Raiders traded for Matt Schuab in the offseason they picked up Carr.  Seattle famously signed Matt Flynn the offseason they picked up Wilson.  Bucs signed Mcgown the offseason before they got Winston.  So three of the teams that you mentioned as examples invested money/trades in a QB either the same offseason or the prior offseason and yet still found their franchise QB.  So, if the franchise QB lottery is just luck, what difference would it make if the Jets invest in Geno or not?  Again, this is based on your theory that if Geno plays, he's going to play well enough for the front office to be blinded to give him another shot to begin with.  But your first theory about investing in Geno and preventing a franchise QB from being acquired contradicts your second theory that the franchise QB pot is just luck and good ones will fall.  And your examples show teams that invested money/picks in QBs that also picked franchise QBs.   

I agree with you on Goff (although I don't think he's going to fall, because from every report I've heard, he looked great at camps and his competition is laying a big egg in Jones/Hackenberg, and Cooks not lighting it up either) and him being the best QB prospect out there.  

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how about the one that outplayed the other during the last 2 years of regular season?

it's always wise to use a rookie QB and compare him to a guys who's been in the league for 10+ years. i think the argument is over. 

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You're missing the point.

I've seen our defense put a bow on a win, and Geno gives it away. Fitz has not done that. I never said he's playing QB perfect, I don't know what you guys are failing to understand. The only stat that matters is winning 2 out of 3 games... the QB didn't lose the game in Philly. That was a team loss.

D gave up 17 points. Offense didn't do anything the first half until it was 24-0 a few mins before halftime. Team didn't lose. Offense did and even then, it was Fitz erratic play that cost us. That along with the bone headed play by BM. 

If your D is giving you 5 turnovers and you score an average of 25, something is wrong. Short fieldstone starting within yards of the FG range, yet we failed to pickup a FD numerous times and kicked it away following those turnovers. 

Run game was good in those games. The receivers played good too. Yet we scored an average of 25 points after forcing 5 turnovers each game. That's all on the QB and his conservative approach. Dunks and dunks at the LoS isn't exactly called "not costing us a game". It's called "3 and outs". If Coples didn't commit that penalty on the last play and Philly passed,and Jets somehow scored on the punt return me converted a 2 point attempt, it still wouldn't have meant that Fitz played good. 

Heres my point. Geno is in year 3. I expected a leap in his progress like 'most' QBs do. We saw a solid camp from him against one of the best secondary. I just wanna see what we have in him. We all know Fitz isn't beating Brady cuz they rarely turn over 5 times a game. 

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Dear God.... Make it stop!!!!!!

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the quarterback. The Jets are 2-1 with him at the helm. If he continues his subpar play from last week and the Jets keep losing, Geno will be the quarterback. 

This is such a tiresome argument. Chad vs. Whomever was the flavor of the month... Sanchez vs. Tebow... Geno vs. Simms... 

Leave it alone!!! Bowles will handle it!

No. The Jets are 2-1 in spite of him. In fact, we could have, and likely would have, been 3-0 without him. Anyone who watched the last game and didn't think that Fitzpatrick's very limited ability to move the ball due to his arm didn't make us easier to defend and ultimately cost us the game is absolutely delusional. 

You know what I'm tired of?  The same people running to save "the conquering hero" can't get it through their heads that Fitz is not, and never will be, a game manager.  Last game (and a lot of the Colts game) is EXACTLY who he is and who he always will be.  He has played 10+ years in this league and nothing has changed.  He makes absolutely mind numbing decisions with the football at times, and the worst part is, he isn't a guy like Favre who can get away with it because he has a weaker arm than my grandmother so he gets in trouble or the offense just stagnates.  Dude may have a Harvard degree but that means jacksh*t on a football field. We have won two football games by forcing a completely absurd amount of turnovers and it is not, in any way shape or form, sustainable.  The throws Fitzpatrick has made on his short drives are throws I could make, and I haven't put on a pair of pads to sling a ball in 5 years. If this offense is to come alive we need someone with a strong enough arm to push the ball the downfield. Not only will that allow the passing game to flourish, but the running game will benefit as well because opponents will have to respect the deep ball instead of stacking the box and daring Fairy Arm Fitz into throwing into the flats all game.  

Look, I've said it here multiple times....I wanted Geno replaced with someone via trade or the draft.  Unfortunately things didn't work out that way and these are the cards we've been dealt.  The early returns on Geno in training camp were so promising but what happened happened and this is where we're at.  However there was a reason that there was such a drastic difference between him and Fitzpatrick this summer.  The coaches know it.  The players know it.  Deep down, I think everyone here with a brain knows it.  I actually have faith we beat Miami in London, but barring a performance like Fitzpatrick's 6 TD anomaly from last year, I think he is ultimately benched at the bye.  He just hasn't been anything special and sooner or later he is going to cost us more games like Philadelphia.  Geno will get another shot.  Fitzpatrick doesn't have the talent or ability to hold him off forever.  I just hope Bowles doesn't wait too long because we have a very real shot at the playoffs with the current state of the AFC.

 

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No. The Jets are 2-1 in spite of him. In fact, we could have, and likely would have, been 3-0 without him. Anyone who watched the last game and didn't think that Fitzpatrick's very limited ability to move the ball due to his arm didn't make us easier to defend and ultimately cost us the game is absolutely delusional. 

You know what I'm tired of?  The same people running to save "the conquering hero" can't get it through their heads that Fitz is not, and never will be, a game manager.  Last game (and a lot of the Colts game) is EXACTLY who he is and who he always will be.  He has played 10+ years in this league and nothing has changed.  He makes absolutely mind numbing decisions with the football at times, and the worst part is, he isn't a guy like Favre who can get away with it because he has a weaker arm than my grandmother so he gets in trouble or the offense just stagnates.  Dude may have a Harvard degree but that means jacksh*t on a football field. We have won two football games by forcing a completely absurd amount of turnovers and it is not, in any way shape or form, sustainable.  The throws Fitzpatrick has made on his short drives are throws I could make, and I haven't put on a pair of pads to sling a ball in 5 years. If this offense is to come alive we need someone with a strong enough arm to push the ball the downfield. Not only will that allow the passing game to flourish, but the running game will benefit as well because opponents will have to respect the deep ball instead of stacking the box and daring Fairy Arm Fitz into throwing into the flats all game.  

Look, I've said it here multiple times....I wanted Geno replaced with someone via trade or the draft.  Unfortunately things didn't work out that way and these are the cards we've been dealt.  The early returns on Geno in training camp were so promising but what happened happened and this is where we're at.  However there was a reason that there was such a drastic difference between him and Fitzpatrick this summer.  The coaches know it.  The players know it.  Deep down, I think everyone here with a brain knows it.  I actually have faith we beat Miami in London, but barring a performance like Fitzpatrick's 6 TD anomaly from last year, I think he is ultimately benched at the bye.  He just hasn't been anything special and sooner or later he is going to cost us more games like Philadelphia.  Geno will get another shot.  Fitzpatrick doesn't have the talent or ability to hold him off forever.  I just hope Bowles doesn't wait too long because we have a very real shot at the playoffs with the current state of the AFC.

 

TLDR

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I'm obviously in the minority, but I have not given up on Geno. The last 3 quarterbacks this franchise has legitimately tried to develop (Chad, Sanchez and Geno) have been riddled with mediocre talent at the WR position (except for the brief seasons of Moss & Coles or Braylon & Santonio). Geno's numbers last year were significantly better when Decker was healthy. I don't believe Geno will ever be an elite QB, but if he can function on a Hasselbeck or Wilson level if he has good WRs around him, that is going to be enough to get this team by with a stingy defense. 

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QB Rating:

Geno:  77.5

Fitz:  78.4 

QBR:

Geno:  44.4

Fitz:  45

INT%:

Geno:  3.5%

Fitz:  4.3%

Yards Per Attempt: 

Geno:  6.9

Fitz:  6.1

TD %

Geno:  3.5

Fitz:  5.2

These are the stats from Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  They are all but identical (yet Geno Smith gets vilified for being a horrible QB last year) but Ryan Fitzpatrick is the way to go this year?  Fitzpatrick has a better system (easier reads) with better weapons as well (along with his vast knowledge and experience) yet he isn't doing a whole lot much to distinguish himself from Geno.  He has a higher TD%  but also a higher INT% as well.  

 

You're Geno's mom, aren't you ...

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I'm obviously in the minority, but I have not given up on Geno. The last 3 quarterbacks this franchise has legitimately tried to develop (Chad, Sanchez and Geno) have been riddled with mediocre talent at the WR position (except for the brief seasons of Moss & Coles or Braylon & Santonio). Geno's numbers last year were significantly better when Decker was healthy. I don't believe Geno will ever be an elite QB, but if he can function on a Hasselbeck or Wilson level if he has good WRs around him, that is going to be enough to get this team by with a stingy defense. 

Rae Caruths mom was screaming on the steps of the courthouse as they carted him off to a life sentence that her boy was a good boy, he didnt do it.

She didnt give up on him.   :D

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Our defense kept us in games at times last year. Then Geno lost them. It makes sense to me.

Now are D kept us in games, but when your agenda last season and the offseason was to get rid of Rex it was how the Jets D was not good, and blew games late ALL the time, the sarcastic vaunted Rex D would be posted numerous times, but now when it suit your argument better the Jets D was good, and kept them in games?  Which is it?

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Ok, so the issue here is the stats for Smith are over a larger sample size, and Fitzpatrick is penalized for a shorter sample size more at risk for volatility?

I took the first 734 passes of Fitz's career, and Geno's career so far (808 passes).  Lets see how things break down:

Geno:  5571 yards (6.9 Y/A)

Fitz:  4104 yards (5.5)

Geno:  25 TDs (TD every 32.2 passes)

Fitz:  21 TDs (TD every 34.9 passes)

Geno:  57.5% Completion percentage

Fitz:  57.7% Completion percentage

Geno:  34 INT (INT every 23.7 passes)

Fitz:  27 INT (INT every 27.1 passes

If you want clutch stats (as defined by profootball reference for 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives);

Fitz:  3 in 734 passes

Geno:  7 in 808 passes

Fitz:  17 Fumbles

Geno:  16 fumbles

Now, if you want something subjective as back breaking INTs, I'm sure both QBs have made their share of mistakes.  I provided you statistical evidence that they are extremely similar in many ways.  

Great post.  I tried to do something similar in the offseason but this breaks it down much more thoroughly.  It amazes me how little people can put things into perspective. 

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Now are D kept us in games, but when your agenda last season and the offseason was to get rid of Rex it was how the Jets D was not good, and blew games late ALL the time, the sarcastic vaunted Rex D would be posted numerous times, but now when it suit your argument better the Jets D was good, and kept them in games?  Which is it?

I said earlier that the two primary reasons we were losing games were Geno single-handedly losing games, and/or Rex's vaunted D holding us in position to win only to lay down in the final minutes. Every once in a while we'd throw in getting completely blown out... So no, I'm not changing my tune in any way.

 

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