Hard to Discredit Jets Fast Start

[JetNation]

By Glenn Naughton   It’s one of the oldest and most commonly occurring arguments in pro football.  Every NFL season, at least one team inevitably surprises fans around the league by getting off to a better start than many anticipated.  At some point, somebody is bound to tell you that said team “hasn’t beaten anybody yet” […]

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[AFJF]

It’s one of the oldest and most commonly occurring arguments in pro football.  Every NFL season, at least one team inevitably surprises fans around the league by getting off to a better start than many anticipated.  At some point, somebody is bound to tell you that said team “hasn’t beaten anybody yet” in an attempt to discredit or bring in to question their on-field performance.

Off to a largely unforeseen 4-1 start, some of that discussion has already begun in the case of the New York Jets, and while the claim of success based on a weak schedule isn’t always without merit, in this case, there really isn’t much.

Not only are the Jets off to an improbable 4-1 start, but every one of their four wins have been by double-digits, and in some cases, they have made their opponents look significantly worse than they have when playing anyone other than Gang Green.

Take for example the Jets latest victory of the season over the 2-4 Washington Redskins, a 34-20 win that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated.

Heading in to the contest, the Redskins worst offensive performance came in the previous week against the Falcons, while putting up a season-high of 417 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles in week 4.

Against the Jets, the Redskins were able to muster a new season-low, 225 yards of offense, 34 of which were on the ground despite averaging 121 rushing yards per game heading in to the contest. A swarming Jets defense held the ‘Skins rushing attack almost 90 yards short of per game average.

With Sheldon Richardson back in the fold, things should only get better for Gang Green’s defense.

Alfred Morris, Washington’s leading rusher on the day, carried the ball 11 times for just 21 yards, a 1.9 YPC clip.

Then there was the Jets pass defense against Kirk Cousins.  For all the talk about how Cousins has struggled this season, nobody kept him in check the way the Jets did.  The Jets secondary held Cousins to season lows in yards (196), completion percentage (58.14) and QB rating (57.9).

On offense, the Jets were facing a stingy Redskins front that had allowed just a single 100-yard rusher against the Falcons the previous week, but still maintained a sub-100 yard per game average at just over 97 YPG.  Then, they took on Chris Ivory and the Jets and allowed 221 yards on the ground between Ivory, Zac Stacy, Bilal Powell and a scrambling Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Pair that with the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick threw his way to a 253 yards through the air, and the Jets put up a total of 474 yards on offense against a team that had been allowing an average of  314 yards per game heading in to the contest.

It wasn’t just the Redskins either.  In their other three victories, the Jets have forced their opponents in to some of their worst performances of the year, and in some cases, the difference is quite staggering.

Week one was a dominating opening win for a Jets defense that surrendered just one touchdown, a 60 yard strike from Johnny Manziel to wide receiver Travis Benjamin who beat cornerback Antonio Cromartie in Gang Green’s 31-10 victory.

Chris Ivory ran for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Jets opener against the Browns.

Since moving on from the thrashing at the hands of the Jets, the Browns have gone on to average just over 26 points per game.  So while some critics will quickly dismiss the Jets victory as coming against a perennial loser, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Browns were held 16 points below their PPG game average since then.

On offense, the 31 points the Jets scored doesn’t say all that much however, as the Browns have been giving up points in bunches.  Former Jets defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, now in year two with the Browns, has overseen a unit that has surrendered at least 26 points in every contest this season with the exception of a week two game against the Tennessee Titans and rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota in a 28-14 win.

Traveling to Indianapolis to play Andrew Luck and the Colts was supposed to be the first “real test” for the Jets in facing a young gunslinger on the road, and they held the Colts to a season-low point total in their 20-7 victory.

When facing all others this year, the Colts are averaging 23.8 PPG, so again, the Jets held an opponents point total well below their season average and when safety Marcus Gilchrist intercepted an Andrew Luck pass late in the game, it was the fifth turnover on the day for the Colts offense, the most any team has forced them in to this season.

Following a disappointing week three loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Jets were on to London where they would face a struggling Miami Dolphins team that would tie their seas0n-low in points against the Jets in a 27-14 loss.

The Jets also kept the Dolphins in check by surrendering just 226 yards of total offense, the lowest output of the season against any opponent for the beleaguered fish. The Dolphins run defense had been porous heading in to the game, allowing 145 yards per game, but the Jets easily surpassed that mark when they topped the 200 yard mark at 207, led once again by Chris Ivory who totaled 166 yards and a touchdown.

So while there will always be detractors looking for a chink in the armor, in a league that thrives on parity, the Jets are often outpacing the competition to the tune of an average margin of victory of just over 15 PPG.

This is not a team that has come out of the gate to steal one or two close wins in facing inferior competition, but a team that’s doing what contenders are supposed  to do and that’s winning the games they’re supposed to win.

The fact that they’ve done it so convincingly offers evidence that it’s not a fluke of any kind, and those looking to discredit the fast start could be in for a rude awakening

[Ex-Rex]

You play who you are scheduled to play and don't apologize for winning. New England is next and there will be no doubt about the Jets legitimacy if they pull out a win in Foxboro. Even if they lose, I still believe they are headed in the right direction for the first time in a long while.

[AFJF]

You play who you are scheduled to play and don't apologize for winning. New England is next and there will be no doubt about the Jets legitimacy if they pull out a win in Foxboro. Even if they lose, I still believe they are headed in the right direction for the first time in a long while.

Agreed...I just like that they're not just squeaking out a few close wins, but they're dominating.

[drdetroit]

Lol at the easy schedule bs.  We faced the colts who have a better defense than they did last year in their bldg.  

[Beerfish]

The reason why we got off to a good start?  Down goes Geno! Down goes Geno! Down goes Geno!

[Jetdawgg]

The NY Jets are bringing a extreme amount of physicality to each game. Both sides of the ball are banging, hard.

[AFJF]

The reason why we got off to a good start?  Down goes Geno! Down goes Geno! Down goes Geno!

That probably doesn't hurt them, but it's this defense that nobody can seem to score on and a dominant running game.  Even with Geno, I think this team is right about where they are without him, but the wins would be some squeakers.

[Beerfish]

That probably doesn't hurt them, but it's this defense that nobody can seem to score on and a dominant running game.  Even with Geno, I think this team is right about where they are without him, but the wins would be some squeakers.

I actually agree but it's fun to pick on Geno.  We really don't know how much he really improved or not and may never know.  I still think before all is said and done he will start some games for us this year.  There is no doubt that if we grafted Genos arm onto Fitz we would have a real real good Qb.

[AFJF]

I actually agree but it's fun to pick on Geno.  We really don't know how much he really improved or not and may never know.  I still think before all is said and done he will start some games for us this year.  There is no doubt that if we grafted Genos arm onto Fitz we would have a real real good Qb.

Agree 100%.  I bust on Geno from time to time but I've also been very fair (IMO) in saying that under Gailey and with the new personnel, he absolutely will be a better QB than what he has been.  The most important thing for me however, is that right now the team is winning and as long as that's the case, I don't want Bowles to change what they're doing. 

I'm a Jets fan, I hope like hell that the light comes on for Geno and when he does get his shot this year, because he's bound to get on the field at some point, that he can use that big arm to expand the play book and put up huge numbers.

 

[nycdan]

I actually agree but it's fun to pick on Geno.  We really don't know how much he really improved or not and may never know.  I still think before all is said and done he will start some games for us this year.  There is no doubt that if we grafted Genos arm onto Fitz we would have a real real good Qb.

IK's arm has done more damage than Geno's this year.  (cue the rim-shot)

[RutgersJetFan]

All four wins have come for the most part against bottom-half teams. It's not negative to say this, not demeaning or shortsighted or unfair, it just is. It's an observation. The Jets have an easy schedule, this benefits them. It's not discrediting to wonder if this influences how we and the media perceive how good the Jets are comparatively to teams with similar records but harder schedules. Perfectly fair question to ask.

[Villain The Foe]

By Glenn Naughton   It’s one of the oldest and most commonly occurring arguments in pro football.  Every NFL season, at least one team inevitably surprises fans around the league by getting off to a better start than many anticipated.  At some point, somebody is bound to tell you that said team “hasn’t beaten anybody yet” […]

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You cant discredit their start. The Jets have shown that they're better than bottom-feeding teams. Every win has a thorough one so you never have that "what if" scenario. Our 1 loss was more errors on our part. With that said, we have to play better teams in order to get a clearer description of this team. 

 

We'll see how they win on Sunday. 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Not sure how much magic Fitzy has left in him but he has been solid thus far. Must be the Ivy League education. 

[Larz]

the competition has been weak, but the jets have had double digit leads in the 4th quarter in every win if I am not mistaken, and really only made us sweat a little bit, lol

the thing is, as has been said, to win while you are getting your sh*t together as a team.  the jets did that.  The team has been improving, cleaning things up, and making nice halftime adjustments. 

it just sucks donkey dick you need to win 13 games to win this ******* division

[rick34125]

Nice article. Really looking forward to seeing the Jets play the pats and the bills. 

[Charlie Brown]

The reason why we got off to a good start?  Down goes Geno! Down goes Geno! Down goes Geno!

Nice Smokin Joe reference and it reveals your age my friend!

[Maxman]

We will find out soon how good this team is!

[JetBlue]

I said at before the season began and I will say it again.  The Jets best football is ahead of them; I figured it would take about half a season to mesh and develop the necessary chemistry with so many new players plus a new offensive and defensive systems.  The key as Bowles has said to be able to WIN while you figure it out.   Win or lose this Sunday, I seriously believe the biggest obstacle to the Pats getting to another Super Bowl will be the Jets.  I will not be surprised in the least if we split against them during the season, then meet and BEAT them in the playoffs. 

[JetBlue]

We will find out soon how good this team is!

Don't make the mistake of basing it on what happens this Sunday.  The Jets are a good football game but they are still a work in progress. 

[jgb]

There are no easy wins in NFL and even if there were, avoiding the SOJ type let downs thus far is a huge step forward from 2nd half of Rex tenure

[Jetster]

We found out how important Ivory & Decker were in the loss to the a Eagles. I have no doubt we win that game had they played. Sans injury we should get better & even more polished as the season rolls on. It's important to solidify our 3/4 WRs, backup RBs (Ridley could be huge), clean up our special teams miscues & keep stacking plays from Gaileys playbook.

The defense will have so more tricks added as this secondary gels too. Exciting stuff.

[Jetsfan80]

All four wins have come for the most part against bottom-half teams. It's not negative to say this, not demeaning or shortsighted or unfair, it just is. It's an observation. The Jets have an easy schedule, this benefits them. It's not discrediting to wonder if this influences how we and the media perceive how good the Jets are comparatively to teams with similar records but harder schedules. Perfectly fair question to ask.

If we hadn't won the games in such convincing fashion the article would have little merit.  But we have.  Our wins haven't really been close, especially in the 2nd half.  That's the mark of a solid team.  The "weak schedule" argument will only work if we start getting beaten badly by better teams.  Naturally, this week's game offers a great measuring stick for where we stand. 

What Glenn was trying to say was that people who think we're ONLY 4-1 because of a weak schedule are mistaken.  We're a good football team who has played well against the schedule we were handed and are playing like a true top team in the AFC.  Are the Jets a GREAT team?  This week will offer a clue.

 

[AFJF]

If we hadn't won the games in such convincing fashion the article would have little merit.  But we have.  Our wins haven't really been close, especially in the 2nd half.  That's the mark of a solid team.  The "weak schedule" argument will only work if we start getting beaten badly by better teams.  Naturally, this week's game offers a great measuring stick for where we stand. 

What Glenn was trying to say was that people who think we're ONLY 4-1 because of a weak schedule are mistaken.  We're a good football team who has played well against the schedule we were handed and are playing like a true top team in the AFC.  Are the Jets a GREAT team?  This week will offer a clue.

 

Exactly.  We've seen plenty of teams that start off hot with a few wins but there's usually one or two where they had to rely on a huge mistake from an opponent to capitalize.  While any win is still a win, sometimes you can tell when a team is a little bit over-inflated as opposed to a team that is just coming out and beating teams up.  So far, the Jets are beating teams up, and it's such a shame they didn't have Ivory against Philly.

[Snell41]

Look, if you have to incorporate the strength of schedule into the equation, then you have to incorporate the level of play within those games.  We have dominated teams in all of our wins.  But more telling is we have done so without putting together a complete, mistake free game.  And don't get me wrong, the mistakes are not the result of an unfixable scenario such as a coach who allows his players to be undisciplined on the field, or an inferior player/players who just aren't very good.  The mistakes we have made are correctable, and I expect they will be over time.  We are a very solid football team.  If we play mistake free football then we can beat any team we face.  What this team needs to do is stay the course and stay hungry.  Every opponent is a challenge.  No NFL team can be slept on.  We need to keep the lows and the highs in check and keep taking it week to week.  We very well may win this week at NE.  We are certainly talented enough to do so.  But if we do it does not mean we start walking around like world beaters pounding our chests.  AZ looked unstoppable and walked into PIT and got soundly whooped by PIT with their 3rd string QB.  Conversely if we lose it doesn't mean the world comes crashing down and the season is over.  OAK the following week is a very tough challenge as well.  We could very well be 4-3 having played 2 solid games.  It doesn't mean the season is over.  Keep playing the field position game, keep moving the ball to rest the D, and take advantage of the opportunities when they come. 

[AFJF]

Look, if you have to incorporate the strength of schedule into the equation, then you have to incorporate the level of play within those games.  We have dominated teams in all of our wins.  But more telling is we have done so without putting together a complete, mistake free game.  And don't get me wrong, the mistakes are not the result of an unfixable scenario such as a coach who allows his players to be undisciplined on the field, or an inferior player/players who just aren't very good.  The mistakes we have made are correctable, and I expect they will be over time.  We are a very solid football team.  If we play mistake free football then we can beat any team we face.  What this team needs to do is stay the course and stay hungry.  Every opponent is a challenge.  No NFL team can be slept on.  We need to keep the lows and the highs in check and keep taking it week to week.  We very well may win this week at NE.  We are certainly talented enough to do so.  But if we do it does not mean we start walking around like world beaters pounding our chests.  AZ looked unstoppable and walked into PIT and got soundly whooped by PIT with their 3rd string QB.  Conversely if we lose it doesn't mean the world comes crashing down and the season is over.  OAK the following week is a very tough challenge as well.  We could very well be 4-3 having played 2 solid games.  It doesn't mean the season is over.  Keep playing the field position game, keep moving the ball to rest the D, and take advantage of the opportunities when they come. 

I've mentioned this a few times in discussing the importance of Fitz's high comp pct but a few people can't grasp it.  They think I'm harping on fantasy football numbers and comp. pct isn't important if the ball isn't thrown 50 yards through the air.  Even when they're not scoring, they're moving the ball well enough to take a few minutes off the clock to give the defense a breather.  A welcome signt after the past few years of 3 and outs on a regular basis.

[#27TheDominator]

The one fear you have with the short passes kind of came to roost Sunday.  The first play of the game was a quick hitting strike to Decker, but they teed off on him and he fumbled.  Seemed like it happened a few times.  Sort of like the Giants against the K-Gun in the super bowl. They will need to go up top now and then to keep the safeties from killing people.  The good news is that Smith seems perfect to take the top off and Decker and Marshall are perfect to outmuscle DBs for the 50-50 balls everybody was squawking about during the offseason

[Snell41]

I've mentioned this a few times in discussing the importance of Fitz's high comp pct but a few people can't grasp it.  They think I'm harping on fantasy football numbers and comp. pct isn't important if the ball isn't thrown 50 yards through the air.  Even when they're not scoring, they're moving the ball well enough to take a few minutes off the clock to give the defense a breather.  A welcome signt after the past few years of 3 and outs on a regular basis.

Exactly.  The idea is if you're not scoring on every drive, at least keep moving the ball enough to pin the opponent back within their own 20 when you give the ball back.

[Jetsfan80]

Look, if you have to incorporate the strength of schedule into the equation, then you have to incorporate the level of play within those games.  We have dominated teams in all of our wins.  But more telling is we have done so without putting together a complete, mistake free game.  And don't get me wrong, the mistakes are not the result of an unfixable scenario such as a coach who allows his players to be undisciplined on the field, or an inferior player/players who just aren't very good.  The mistakes we have made are correctable, and I expect they will be over time.  We are a very solid football team.  If we play mistake free football then we can beat any team we face.  What this team needs to do is stay the course and stay hungry.  Every opponent is a challenge.  No NFL team can be slept on.  We need to keep the lows and the highs in check and keep taking it week to week.  We very well may win this week at NE.  We are certainly talented enough to do so.  But if we do it does not mean we start walking around like world beaters pounding our chests.  AZ looked unstoppable and walked into PIT and got soundly whooped by PIT with their 3rd string QB.  Conversely if we lose it doesn't mean the world comes crashing down and the season is over.  OAK the following week is a very tough challenge as well.  We could very well be 4-3 having played 2 solid games.  It doesn't mean the season is over.  Keep playing the field position game, keep moving the ball to rest the D, and take advantage of the opportunities when they come. 

Exactly.  Wins are one thing.  The WAY you win is also very important.  We're passing the eye test as a team and are + 54 in net points.  That's meaningful and bodes well for the rest of the year.

[nycdan]

I've mentioned this a few times in discussing the importance of Fitz's high comp pct but a few people can't grasp it.  They think I'm harping on fantasy football numbers and comp. pct isn't important if the ball isn't thrown 50 yards through the air.  Even when they're not scoring, they're moving the ball well enough to take a few minutes off the clock to give the defense a breather.  A welcome signt after the past few years of 3 and outs on a regular basis.

It's not even the 3 and outs that killed us.  It's the 1 and outs (turnovers) that really mess a team up.  We actually had a few last week and weathered the storm.  Hopefully Marshall and Decker will be using extra Stick-um this week.