UnitedWhofans Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 And how many winning records on left on the schedule? You dont control who you play. How many winning teams have the Pats beat? None of that matters. What matters is starting 4-1, you should be making the playoffs. Bottom line. Anything less is a failure. I would like to see odds on that. I also believe that the Jets odds of making the playoffs after a Bills loss was 51%. So they still have good odds. EDIT: Odds for a team since 1990 to make the playoffs after starting 4-1 is 77%. 5-0 is 90%. So big difference there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 sadly. jets are beating the bad teams and losing to the better ones. that's what happens when fitz is your qb, and you're only 1 year removed from a 4-12 season. Exactly. Fitz cost us two games, Buffalo (lousy play) and Oakland (refusal to slide). Then again, he won us 5 games so we can't complain. We can't win any games when Ivory is hurt, that's actually the bigger story. Most of us back in July felt that our ceiling was 9-10 wins, it was likely we'd get 7-8 wins. Going 8-8 is not a disappointment, no matter how 'hot' the 4-1 start against pretenders led some to believe. If we had stayed healthy, 11 wins could have materialized. But we're not and it didn't and that's how it goes sometimes. SAR I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Exactly. Fitz cost us two games, Buffalo (lousy play) and Oakland (refusal to slide). Then again, he won us 5 games so we can't complain. Most of us back in July felt that our ceiling was 9-10 wins, it was likely we'd get 7-8 wins. Going 8-8 is not a disappointment, no matter how 'hot' the 4-1 start against pretenders led some to believe. If we had stayed healthy, 11 wins could have materialized. But we're not and it didn't and that's how it goes sometimes. SAR I I still believe ST cost us those games not Fitz. We knew that Fitz would have average play coming in. We did not know ST would suck so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ok besides the Pitt game the Fins had a winning record 8-7 till we beat them.. And in in 2013 we beat the Pats that had a winning record.. I think you see my point. No matter how you slice it, we all know who is winning the Super Bowl this year, it's pretty obvious that the Giants will beat the Patriots 24-21. SAR I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I would like to see odds on that. I also believe that the Jets odds of making the playoffs after a Bills loss was 51%. So they still have good odds. EDIT: Odds for a team since 1990 to make the playoffs after starting 4-1 is 77%. 5-0 is 90%. So big difference there, Yeah, so back to what I was saying. It's a colossal tank job if the Jets dont make the playoffs after starting 4-1 since 77% of the league over the last 25 years gets in with that type of a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augustiniak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 plus it wasn't expected that the defense would start crapping out as it has, putting more pressure on the offense to keep pace with higher scoring offenses. that's not how the jets expected to be playing this season. just goes to show you that in today's nfl piling on defensive first rounders one after another will have a marginal effect after a while, you simply need to score to make the playoffs. the jets really need devin smith to become a part of the offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah this would all be much better if we were losing to bad teams and beating good teams, you do get extra points for beating teams over 500 don't you? There is no better indicator of the quality of your team than looking at who you can beat and who beats you. Since I've been a Jets fan going back 35 years, there was only one time period where we could consistently beat teams with winning records and you could consider us somewhat of an elite team. And that was that span from 2009-2010 where we went 18-4 and made deep playoff runs. Besides that spurt it's been 33 years of losing to winning teams and beating the scrubs. SAR I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Over half of the league is below .500 Of the teams we've played, only the Patritos and Bills are over .500 now. The Bills were not above .500 when we played them. So, in essence the "we only beat losing teams" narrative ends with: the Patriots are the only team we've lost to that is over .500, and the Patriots have beaten everyone. EVERYONE. We've lost and won all of our games against sub .500 teams, other than the Patriots. Buffalo was not a "sub .500" team when we played them. Oakland was not then a "sub .500" team when we played them. 3 of our 9 games were against teams .500 or better and we lost all 3 of them. We beat: Cleveland with no QB (and they suck even with him) Indy with an injured QB and no secondary Miami in full meltdown mode The 2-3 Redskins The 2-5 Jaguars Now granted these 5 games resulted in wins, not losses. But still...meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 There is no better indicator of the quality of your team than looking at who you can beat and who beats you. Hello NCAA? How have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I still believe ST cost us those games not Fitz. We knew that Fitz would have average play coming in. We did not know ST would suck so much The first half vs. Buffalo was Fitzpatrick's worst showing of the season, and at Oakland he took himself out of the game in the first minute with a bonehead scramble. Special teams cost us other games for sure, but Fitz has played well for us to date, can't say our record should be more than 1 game better than it is though. SAR I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah, so back to what I was saying. It's a colossal tank job if the Jets dont make the playoffs after starting 4-1 since 77% of the league over the last 25 years gets in with that type of a start. What percent of the 77% came off the prior year with 4 wins or less? That's the proper metric. The Patriots open the year 4-1 100% of the time and make the playoffs 100% of the time. Certainly not the same thing as the sad-sack 4-12 Jets getting off to an improbable start. SAR I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augustiniak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The first half vs. Buffalo was Fitzpatrick's worst showing of the season, and at Oakland he took himself out of the game in the first minute with a bonehead scramble. Special teams cost us other games for sure, but Fitz has played well for us to date, can't say our record should be more than 1 game better than it is though. SAR I we go from having the worst starter to an average one and the complaints are that we need philip rivers. fitz didn't play well in the rain, for sure. but he has 15 tds and 9 picks, compared to geno who has 27 career tds and 35 picks. i'll take that upgrade and put this with a hopefully good defense until a better qb comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah, so back to what I was saying. It's a colossal tank job if the Jets dont make the playoffs after starting 4-1 since 77% of the league over the last 25 years gets in with that type of a start. Maybe, but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 we go from having the worst starter to an average one and the complaints are that we need philip rivers. fitz didn't play well in the rain, for sure. but he has 15 tds and 9 picks, compared to geno who has 27 career tds and 35 picks. i'll take that upgrade and put this with a hopefully good defense until a better qb comes along. Jets are 12th in points scored. 12th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That's brilliant compared to the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 we go from having the worst starter to an average one and the complaints are that we need philip rivers. fitz didn't play well in the rain, for sure. but he has 15 tds and 9 picks, compared to geno who has 27 career tds and 35 picks. i'll take that upgrade and put this with a hopefully good defense until a better qb comes along. Me too. I'm angry about the Oakland and Buffalo games, particularly the no-show on D out west which was inexcusable in a game where they knew our O was crippled. But I'm not angry about the 5-4 record and the direction the team is headed in. I'd re-sign Fitzpatrick for the next 3 years today, lock him up, let him continue to win games for us and mentor young Bryce Petty along the way. Maccagnan, Bowles, Fitzpatrick, some really nice strides this year. This season is already a success, as Mike said, playoffs or no playoffs. SAR I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Hello NCAA? How have you been? So your point is that the 4-12 Jets with a rookie head coach and a backup quarterback should have gone 10-6 and gotten a playoff berth. That is the thesis you're wasting our time with this afternoon? SAR I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The first half vs. Buffalo was Fitzpatrick's worst showing of the season you mean the game where he was so injured he was scheduled for surgery the next day? it's fair to assume whatever shots/pills they gave him to get him out there also created a fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 particularly the no-show on D out west which was inexcusable there's a reason why the Jets as a franchise are like 7-16-1 all time in Oakland. It's a tough place to play and was most likely an L when they drew it up. http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/oakland-raiders/teamvsteam?opp=22&ha=H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Buffalo was not a "sub .500" team when we played them. Oakland was not then a "sub .500" team when we played them. 3 of our 9 games were against teams .500 or better and we lost all 3 of them. We beat: Cleveland with no QB (and they suck even with him) Indy with an injured QB and no secondary Miami in full meltdown mode The 2-3 Redskins The 2-5 Jaguars Now granted these 5 games resulted in wins, not losses. But still...meh. Oh, I thought Buffalo was 4-4, and said so a line or two up above what you bolded. I really don't recall what Oakland was, but I thought they were also at .500 The jist remains the same, it's not as if we're losing all of our games to teams that are 2-3 games over .500 If we're going to include qualifiers on every win/loss, then you might do so for us too. For example: we lost to Buffalo when we were in full injury mode and they were in Rex revenge mode Wait no, the qualifiers are stupid. Games are games... using them to discredit the wins we got is as big a foul as using them to excuse the losses we've taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Oh, I thought Buffalo was 4-4, and said so a line or two up above what you bolded. I really don't recall what Oakland was, but I thought they were also at .500 The jist remains the same, it's not as if we're losing all of our games to teams that are 2-3 games over .500 If we're going to include qualifiers on every win/loss, then you might do so for us too. For example: we lost to Buffalo when we were in full injury mode and they were in Rex revenge mode Wait no, the qualifiers are stupid. Games are games. That's no sub .500. That's .500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 That's no sub .500. That's .500. Oh, so the hangup is not whether I'm right, it's that I left out a couple of words? Here: We've lost and won all of our games against teams at or below .500, other than the Patriots. Frankly, it took a couple responses before I re-read my post and realized what you guys were digging in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Oh, so the hangup is not whether I'm right, it's that I left out a couple of words? Here: Words have no bearing on whether an argument made on an anonymous word based message-board is right or wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Words have no bearing on whether an argument made on an anonymous word based message-board is right or wrong? I'm saying I see why guys are jumping on what I wrote, so I fixed it. What else would you like me to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 So your point is that the 4-12 Jets with a rookie head coach and a backup quarterback should have gone 10-6 and gotten a playoff berth. That is the thesis you're wasting our time with this afternoon? SAR I Huh? I have no clue what you're talking about. My point is and has been, at 4-1 the expectation is playoffs because for the last 25 years, 77% of teams that start 4-1 get it. Not getting in, is a failure. Never mind what you thought during the preseason. That's my point. You're the won bringing up strength of schedule and stupid college type sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'm saying I see why guys are jumping on what I wrote, so I fixed it. What else would you like me to do? Wear a fez and type every word; missing or not missing, as if you were Abu from Aladdin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Huh? I have no clue what you're talking about. My point is and has been, at 4-1 the expectation is playoffs because for the last 25 years, 77% of teams that start 4-1 get it. Not getting in, is a failure. Never mind what you thought during the preseason. That's my point. You're the won bringing up strength of schedule and stupid college type sh*t. Agree with all of your posts. Also, that made me chuckle. SAR is a won-ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAR I Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Huh? I have no clue what you're talking about. My point is and has been, at 4-1 the expectation is playoffs because for the last 25 years, 77% of teams that start 4-1 get it. Not getting in, is a failure. Never mind what you thought during the preseason. That's my point. You're the won bringing up strength of schedule and stupid college type sh*t. The Jets would have made the playoffs if they stayed healthy. They didn't. 4-1 teams track to a 13-3 record and the Jets were never in anyone's wildest dreams a 13-3 team healthy or not. Back to your thesis, find out how many of the 77% of teams that started 4-1 and made the playoffs had 4 or less wins the prior year. That's really the argument. The Green Bay Packers must have opened 4-1 every year since 1994, same for the Patriots since 2001, they're not the group the Jets should be compared to. SAR I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Oh, I thought Buffalo was 4-4, and said so a line or two up above what you bolded. I really don't recall what Oakland was, but I thought they were also at .500 The jist remains the same, it's not as if we're losing all of our games to teams that are 2-3 games over .500 If we're going to include qualifiers on every win/loss, then you might do so for us too. For example: we lost to Buffalo when we were in full injury mode and they were in Rex revenge mode Wait no, the qualifiers are stupid. Games are games... using them to discredit the wins we got is as big a foul as using them to excuse the losses we've taken. I didn't say the wins are discredited. I even noted we won them (we didn't lose). I do attest that they aren't as impressive when they are notably qualified. I doubt you'd suggest that beating Cleveland is the same measuring stick as beating New England, or that beating Indy with a healthy Andrew Luck and a healthy secondary is not the same feat as if they're all ready to play. I also don't accept that Buffalo was in Rex revenge mode because the players have nothing to avenge, and Rex doesn't play on the field (whether he's aware of this or not). It wasn't a shot at you, so relax. It just adds up to us being a bit of a paper tiger (at least so far). Frankly one of the better games we played was the loss to NE, and I do wonder what the result would have been if NE's backup OL wasn't allowed to hold at will all game long, or commit obvious PI in the endzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The Jets would have made the playoffs if they stayed healthy. They didn't. 4-1 teams track to a 13-3 record and the Jets were never in anyone's wildest dreams a 13-3 team healthy or not. Back to your thesis, find out how many of the 77% of teams that started 4-1 and made the playoffs had 4 or less wins the prior year. That's really the argument. The Green Bay Packers must have opened 4-1 every year since 1994, same for the Patriots since 2001, they're not the group the Jets should be compared to. SAR I Well, the season isnt over. They can still make the playoffs and that's what we're debating. If they dont make it, is it a failure? You keep bringing up last year but it has nothing to do with this year. It's a completely different, much more talented roster with different leadership. One year has nothing to do with the other. So your exercise is meaningless. What matters is, the Jets started 4-1 this season. And 77% of the time for the last 25 years that = the playoffs. You think all 77% didnt deal with injuries? This is the NFL we're talking about. And the Jets havent had a really significant injury other than Mangold. A game here or there from average players, isnt season crippling and neither was Mangold. This is the same team that was 3-1 without arguably their best player on defense. So again, my position is, it's a failure if they dont make it. If you want to disagree because of last year, that's fine but the stats back up my position and I've got 25 years worth of data to support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 You know I am OK with moving on from Geno. I still believe the Jets would be better served playing him and seeing if he can be the guy, but they see him every day and it does not seem they agree. However, playing Fitz past this year is completely idiotic. Play Petty, draft a QB, sign someone else, but Fitz is not good enough to invest two years in. You are essentially tossing those years away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Brown Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Exactly. Fitz cost us two games, Buffalo (lousy play) and Oakland (refusal to slide). Then again, he won us 5 games so we can't complain. We can't win any games when Ivory is hurt, that's actually the bigger story. Most of us back in July felt that our ceiling was 9-10 wins, it was likely we'd get 7-8 wins. Going 8-8 is not a disappointment, no matter how 'hot' the 4-1 start against pretenders led some to believe. If we had stayed healthy, 11 wins could have materialized. But we're not and it didn't and that's how it goes sometimes. SAR I I am scared, I'm agreeing with you more and more!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Brown Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Buffalo had more overall talent than the Jets. Many experts said that. That is what everyone was saying... Except now everyone on this board is saying that isn't the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzogtheDefiler Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The Jets are not a young and up and coming team like the Jags. We are in a win now mode. I have no idea what the hell is going on here?!? In fact one could argue that the Dolphins and Patriots have superior younger talent to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The Jets are not a young and up and coming team like the Jags. We are in a win now mode. I have no idea what the hell is going on here?!? In fact one could argue that the Dolphins and Patriots have superior younger talent to us. They would be right too. We got a few talented young players on defense, but on offense we are old. we have some young guys on offense that have potential to be good but as of now we wait. We are win now time that is not going to win now or later for that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faba Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 You can not rebuild a roster in one year-we have to make some good drafts in a row with wise free agent decisions to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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