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Position by Position: Cuts, re-signings and needs


Jetsfan80

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The Jets currently have $14.2M in cap space projected for 2016, leaving a lot of tough decisions for Mike Maccagnan.  Below is an attempt to sift through these decisions position-by-position and see what needs to happen to improve the roster. 

Note that not all of the positions I have determined to need to be "addressed via draft" will actually happen, especially given our predominant strategy of taking the best available player.  However, if BPA aligns fairly closely with these positions of need I expect us to pull the trigger.  The remaining needs would all need to be addressed with trades or in free agency.

 

QB

Keep:  Bryce Petty

Re-Sign:  Ryan Fitzpatrick (3-year deal in neighborhood of $9-$12M per, $14-$18M guaranteed)

Cut:  Geno Smith ($0.5M dead money, $1.1M cap space saved)

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  While it is true that Geno Smith's cap number is small, he presents a distraction and a poor fit as a backup.  His primary role in 2015 ultimately ended up being a "buffer" to keep Bryce Petty from needing to see the field.  That buffer will likely no longer be needed as Petty enters his 2nd NFL season.  The Jets did not draft Geno Smith and have no reason to use up a roster spot on him. 

Adding another QB to the fold via the draft that fits what the regime would like to accomplish makes the most sense, with Fitzpatrick retained as the 2016 Week 1 starter.  (NOTE:  I used the deal Nick Foles got with St. Louis as the "upper limit" of what we should be willing to give Fitz.) 

Trading for a QB, while possible, only makes sense if it does not require dealing a 1st or 2nd rounder.  Drew Brees is a pipe dream. 

 

RB

Keep:  Zac Stacy, Tommy Bohannon

Re-Sign:  Bilal Powell (3-year deal, $3-5M per, $6-7M guaranteed); Stevan Ridley (1 year, $760,000)

Allow to hit free agency:  Chris Ivory

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  RB is mostly a plug 'n' play position in the NFL, meaning costs should be kept low unless you have a truly special talent.  Chris Ivory's inability to stay healthy down the stretch means the Jets should allow someone else to overpay him, and perhaps recoup a conditional draft pick in 2017 in the process.  Ridley, while only 26, was nothing special, and can walk as a UFA unless he's willing to accept the veteran minimum deal (1 year, $760,000 based on his years accrued).  At 24 and under contract thru 2016, Stacy can stick around. 

This leaves Powell to be the only player commanding any kind of "big money".  The deal I would like to see him receive is similar to the one Frank Gore received in Indianapolis.  Powell is 27, so the length of his deal will be the biggest sticking point.  A 3-year deal would be the most Jet-friendly.  Of course, a lot of cap maneuvering by Maccagnan will need to occur to make this happen.  The Jets will then need to add a RB, preferably one who is a superb pass-catcher, in the middle rounds of the draft.  Powell, Ridley, Stacy and a Duke Johnson-type of RB would be a solid corps entering 2016.

 

WR

Keep:  Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Devin Smith, Quincy Enunwa

Re-sign:  Kenbrell Thompkins (cheap 2-year deal OR 1 year, $675,000), Shaq Evans (1 year, $600,000)

Trade/Cut (after June 1st):  Jeremy Kerley ($600,000 dead money, $2.5M cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Chris Owusu, Joe Anderson

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  The status quo seems to be in order for the Jets at WR.  Marshall, Decker, Smith and Enunwa are all under contract thru either 2017 or 2018.  Thompkins, Owusu and Evans can be retained on the cheap and compete for spots on special teams, with Thompkins representing the best bet to be the # 4/5 WR.  With Jace Amaro hopefully returning in good health in 2016, the H-Back experiment for Enunwa should also be over.

Kerley should be either traded or cut based on his inability to fit the scheme and cap savings provided.  Waiting until after June 1st in order to reduce the dead money makes the best sense.  Before that point, every effort should be made to obtain a low round draft choice.  After investing a 2nd rounder last year at WR, the Jets are in a position where they will not need to pursue one in the 2016 draft unless the value is too good to pass up. 

 

TE/H-Back

Keep:  Jace Amaro, Wes Saxton

Cut:  Jeff Cumberland ($1.9M cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Zach Sudfeld, Kellen Davis, Brandon Bostick

Need?  YES.  Address via free agency.

Rationale:  Cumberland becomes a cap casualty in 2016 with his role greatly diminished in Chan Gailey's system.  Re-signing cheaper is a possibility, but given that it would be better for Cumberland to find a home as a more traditional TE2 elsewhere, it doesn't seem particularly likely. 

With Jace Amaro returning, the Jets should look to see what he is capable of in 2016, with a decent backup in free agency being targeted to compete for the job with Wes Saxton.  TE is not particularly valuable in Chan Gailey's scheme, but the H-Back is.  And the Jets do not want to be forced to throw to blocking TE's like Kellen Davis again anytime soon. 

 

OT

Keep:  Breno Giacomini, Brent Qvale, Ben Ijalana

Re-structure:  D'Brickashaw Ferguson

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  OT is an area on the field where the Jets need to be proactive.  Currently, no prospects exist to be the future LT replacement for Ferguson, who is 32.  The Jets had some of the best pass protection in the NFL this season, but that advantage will evaporate as Ferguson begins to struggle with speed-rushers.  Brick represents a cap hit of $14.1M in 2016 and his contract expires in 2017, and thus the Jets will want to restructure/extend his deal to backload the cap hit. 

Meanwhile, at RT, Giacomini came to the Jets with a reputation as a road grader type in Seattle's zone blocking scheme, much like the one Chan Gailey utilizes.  However, he disappointed in this area.  He is not particularly expensive and should remain on the roster, but ideally the Jets use an early draft pick on an OT who can compete at RT and simultaneously develop into the LT the team will need down the road. 

 

G

Keep:  James Carpenter, Brian Winters, Dakota Dozier, Jarvis Harrison

Allow to hit free agency:  Willie Colon

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  James Carpenter was the most underrated Jet in 2015.  Any success the Jets had running to the left side was due to his presence in between Brick and Mangold.  Brian Winters showed flashes, especially in pass-blocking, that made him under-appreciated as well.  Meanwhile, the running game did not seem to be impacted greatly by the loss of Willie Colon after Week 8.  Thus, at 32, the Jets can afford to lose him.  Dakota Dozier backed up both LG and RG positions in 2015, and with 2015 5th rounder Jarvis Harrison on the practice squad, the position does not represent a need.  The usual UDFA signings should certainly be made to bolster the depth at guard, but in ordinary circumstances only 3 guards will need to be active on gamedays.

 

C

Keep:  Nick Mangold, Wesley Johnson

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Mangold only representing an $8.6M cap hit next season (down from $10.4M in 2015) and signed thru 2017, nothing needs to change at this spot.  Backup Wesley Johnson is also under contract until after 2016.

 

DE/DT

Keep:  Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Mike Catapano, Josh Martin

Franchise Tag:  Muhammad Wilkerson (estimated 1 year, $15-16M)

Allow to hit free agency:  Leger Douzable, Stephen Bowen, Lawrence Okoye, Julian Howsare

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  The Jets are as set as a team can be at DE/DT if Wilkerson agrees to be franchise tagged.  After suffering a broken leg, a long-term deal needs to be off the table for both sides.  Wilkerson needs to prove he's healthy, but the Jets cannot let him walk either.  He and Sheldon Richardson (who also should not be moved) represent the only 2 elite players on the roster under the age of 30.  Douzable will unfortunately need to be let go, but the Jets should keep both Catapano (25 years old) and Martin (24), who are both under contract thru 2016.

 

NT

Keep:  Deon Simon

Allow to hit free agency:  Damon Harrison

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  While the NT position is important for the Jets, high draft capital/free agent dollars no longer need to be invested in the position as it was in the past.  2015 7th rounder Deon Simon, a 6-4, 321-lbs 25-year old, should get the first crack as heir apparent to "Snacks" at NT, who will just be too costly to bring back considering how much is already invested in interior defensive linemen.  It will be a tough loss given how much of an impact Harrison has made in his 3 years as a Jet, but one has to remember he was originally an undrafted free agent.  Should Simon fail to secure the role, there might just be another Harrison out there in the 2016 UDFA pool.

 

OLB

Keep:  Lorenzo Mauldin, Trevor Reilly

Allow to hit free agency:  Calvin Pace, Deion Barnes, Julian Stanford

Need?  YES.  Address via draft and/or free agency.

Rationale:  Unless Calvin Pace agrees to the veteran minimum (1 year, $985,000), it's likely time for the 35-year old and the Jets to part ways, thus saving his roster spot for a younger, more athletic edge rusher.  Mauldin was great for the Jets in 2015, and a feel-good story to boot.  His presence eliminates the need for the Jets to feel they MUST take an edge rusher in the 1st round in the 2016 draft.  However, on the other side, Trevor Reilly is effective but may only be best used in a rotational role.  Thus, the Jets may need to sign another veteran OLB, though one that is a lot less longer in the tooth than Pace.

 

ILB

Keep:  David Harris, Taiwan Jones

Re-Sign:  Erin Henderson (2-3 year deal OR 1-year, $885,000)

Allow to hit free agency:  Demario Davis, Jamari Lattimore

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  Davis will be another prominent cap casualty for the Jets.  It's tough to lose a 26-year old who has been a solid leader/character guy for the Jets, but he lacks the athleticism needed to handle the ILB role.  This is particularly true with a slow David Harris in tow.  An early draft pick will need to be used to upgrade the position, while Henderson and Taiwan Jones ought to be kept as capable backups. 

 

CB

Keep:  Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine, Marcus Williams, Dexter McDougle, Dee Milliner

Cut/trade:  Antonio Cromartie ($8M in cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Darrin Walls, Kevin Short

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With $12M in cap savings represented in Cromartie and Milliner, it would be the best decision to cut Cromartie and perhaps look for a trade partner with Milliner.  Assuming the former happens, bringing Cro back on a cheaper deal makes sense.  However, Milliner does not present much trade value, unfortunately, and $4M in savings is likely not enough to simply cut him and part ways with a former top-10 pick, even if it was another regime that made that decision.  Beyond UDFA pickups, corner does not need a lot of additions.

 

S

Keep:  Calvin Pryor, Marcus Gilchrist, Rontez Miles, Dion Bailey, Ronald Martin

Allow to hit free agency:  Antonio Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Gilchrist commanding a $5.6M cap hit in 2016, the Jets won't likely be able to spend much of significance on safety depth next season.  With that in mind, Antonio Allen, who suffered a torn achilles last August, probably shouldn't be brought back.  Jaiquawn Jarrett, a former 2nd round pick in 2011, also got hurt and probably won't be brought back.  Miles, Bailey and Martin are all under contract next season on the cheap to likely compete for 2 spots.  Whoever proves the least valuable on special teams should be let go in camp or preseason.

 

K

Keep:  Nick Folk

Allow to hit free agency:  Randy Bullock

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Folk returning to full health next season and under contract thru 2017, Bullock's services are no longer needed.  A missed 40-yard FG against the Bills Week 17 and the Jets' unwillingness to allow him to attempt 50+ yarders (he went 0-1 in 8 games) makes him a goner.

 

P

Allow to hit free agency:  Ryan Quigley

Need?  YES.  Address via free agency or UDFA.

Rationale:  After shanking a 21-yard punt against the Bills Week 17, seemingly ANY replacement will do at punter. 

 

KR/PR

Need?  YES.  Address via draft/UDFA

Rationale:  Earlier in the above analysis, Jeremy Kerley (starting PR) and Antonio Cromartie (KR) get jettisoned, leaving only Kenbrell Thompkins (KR) and Eric Decker (PR) on the depth chart.  Neither of these are ideal choices, particular not Decker given his importance to the offense.  Devin Smith cannot be trusted after a key fumble against the Bills in November.  Shaq Evans returned 17 punts his Senior year at UCLA, but is merely a low level option and may not even make the team in 2016.  Thus, the Jets will need to address both the KR and PR spots this offseason.

 

LS

Keep:  Tanner Purdum

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  Purdum is under contract thru 2016.

 

 

Total approximate cap savings from cuts/trades:  $16-21M

Resulting approximate cap space for re-signing players/free agents:  $30-35M

Approximate 2016 cap hit from re-signed players:  $28-30M

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my brain hit a wall when i got to the RB/WR area. I'll have to come back to read the rest. 

Stacy can fck off. Ridley too... no ceiling with either of them. staff our backfield with more potential. Way more. 

2ndly I nearly choked on my tongue when i read "keep Enunwa -- need "NO" 

What a terrible/limited assessment of our needs for Chan's 4 WR set offense. 

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He's 24 years old and represents a $675,000 cap hit.  Basically the veteran minimum for a player with 3 years of experience.  There's no reason to cut him.

wasn't Powell signed already?  

EDIT:  One year deal, my bad

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He's 24 years old and represents a $675,000 cap hit.  Basically the veteran minimum for a player with 3 years of experience.  There's no reason to cut him.

How about the reason that he is terrible? He could be a cap hit of a bag of Reeses Peanut Butter Cups and it would be too much.

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The only thing that jumped off the page to me was the recommendation to keep Ridley.  What in the word did he show to merit keeping him?  I would cut him today, he is a steaming pile of crap.  The occasional 8 or 9 yard gain does not offset the rushes for no gain or a loss which happen 90% of the time. 

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My thinking on keeping a lot of these guys I agree are pretty terrible is this:  You can't simultaneously address a lot of needs while creating a lot more.  Want to let go of Ivory, Ridley, AND Stacy immediately?  Great.  But you're going to need to replace those guys with draft picks/UDFA's and/or free agents that are equally terrible, and also are not familiar with the system.  Some years you have to leave the bottom part of your roster alone heading into camp/preseason and hope some UDFA's or low level free agents emerge and can also help on special teams.  This is one of those years. 

We have very limited cap space and will not be able to upgrade at RB and WR using free agency.  Certainly we will need to add a RB via the draft.  But until camp or preseason rolls around, I don't see guys like Stacy, Ridley, or Enunwa going anywhere.

I should have specified that some of the players on the "Keep list" are ones I'd keep until the draft.  After that point anything goes and if we find upgrades, great. 

 

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You put it a lot of work, so I pushed through it. All in all, it's very astute in most areas (though we have to skin some fat in the secondary), and the message is pretty clear; We have to get younger and more explosive on offense and our linebacking corps..

We have to hit on picks because i think a certain amount of $$$ is going to get invested in the Oline, and on extending a few players. This draft isn't particularly strong at OT, and LBs (IMO) so increased emphasis on the following:

--Drafting a dynamic RB who can close games

--Getting depth at WR/TE

--Need bolster our entire LB corps. All of them.

--Find successors for @ OT and C

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i appreciate the hard work put into this original post... my only change is I hope that the team can find a way to keep Damon Harrison, even if it means letting Powell go. 

Powell simply looked like a different player last year compared to previous years.  Maybe he was playing for a big contract.  Who knows.  But he he somehow seemed bigger and faster.  If he's drinking HGH for breakfast, that's something we'll need to know beforehand so we don't lose him for 4 games, lol.

We may well not keep ANY of the RB's on the roster currently.  But I doubt it.  We have to keep at least 1 or 2.

NT is simply an area I don't think we can spend much.  He's obviously provided a different skillset compared to the rest of our D-Line, but that's still a lot of money on the D-Line to tie up.

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Powell simply looked like a different player last year compared to previous years.  Maybe he was playing for a big contract.  Who knows.  But he he somehow seemed bigger and faster.  If he's drinking HGH for breakfast, that's something we'll need to know beforehand so we don't lose him for 4 games, lol.

We may well not keep ANY of the RB's on the roster currently.  But I doubt it.  We have to keep at least 1 or 2.

If there's any position a team could survive a 100% overhaul, it's at RB. The reality is, the stage is set for an large exodus: 

--Ivory & Powell probably only have 1 big contract left in their careers. Their next 3 year deals will put them both at 30... IOW -- they want to get paid. 

--Stacy is as JAG as they come, and Ridley is healthy and probably wants to go where he can land a "prove it" deal. Not as someone's #3.

Ridley is probably the most likely to return, but as UDFA, there's nothing to keep him here or from hearing overtures from other teams.

 

Translation -- We're gonna be drafting someone. Whether it be Elliot, Henry, Hunt, Collins -- someone

 

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Also keep in mind that I would let Ridley go IF he does not accept the veteran minimum.  Both he and Stacy can go the minute we find better RB's.  I am not at all advocating their retention based on talent, only on the reasoning that we can't just let Ivory, Powell, Stacy and Ridley all go. 

Even if we had free agent dollars available to us, which RB(s) could/would we realistically acquire on this list?

* Matt Forte:  30 years old, will want a big payday.  Nope.

* Reggie Bush:  Not a terrible choice, but he's also 30.  The quickness he's used in the passing game may well be long gone.

* Doug Martin:  Too expensive.

* James Starks:  Meh.

* Lamar Miller:  I imagine he will be re-signed.

* Alfred Morris:  Meh.

* CJ Anderson:  Meh.

* LeGarrette Blount:  Could be retained by the Patriots; if not, not sure I'd want him at the price he'll command and at 29 years old.

* Bobby Rainey, Lance Dunbar, Chris Johnson, Matt Asiata, Chris Polk, Bernard Pierce, Jacquizz Rodgers, Fred Jackson:  Meh.

 

The only guys on the list I'd be interested in are the following:  Ronnie Hillman, Benny Cunningham, Charcandrick West.  That's about it.

 

 

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If there's any position a team could survive a 100% overhaul, it's at RB. The reality is, the stage is set for an large exodus: 

--Ivory & Powell probably only have 1 big contract left in their careers. Their next 3 year deals will put them both at 30... IOW -- they want to get paid. 

--Stacy is as JAG as they come, and Ridley is healthy and probably wants to go where he can land a "prove it" deal. Not as someone's #3.

Ridley is probably the most likely to return, but as UDFA, there's nothing to keep him here or from hearing overtures from other teams.

 

Translation -- We're gonna be drafting someone. Whether it be Elliot, Henry, Hunt, Collins -- someone

 

In the scenario where we lose all 4, we'd probably need to draft TWO, and fill the other spots with UDFA's and/or free agents.  I just don't see it.  Draft one to hopefully share starting duties with Powell, keep Ridley and Stacy as backups on the cheap. 

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We need a balanced attack on offense a great RB to match our 2 great WRs  

Guys like Powell who are multi dimensional are good fits for this offense add a Forte type and we have success another guy I wouldn't mind seeing in the backfield if we cant sign Powell is Theo Riddick. 

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The only thing that jumped off the page to me was the recommendation to keep Ridley.  What in the word did he show to merit keeping him?  I would cut him today, he is a steaming pile of crap.  The occasional 8 or 9 yard gain does not offset the rushes for no gain or a loss which happen 90% of the time. 

I saw nothing that makes me want to keep Ridley or Stacy. They had little or no impact on the offense. Draft a RB and find a low priced FA to replace Ivory, who I am down on. He did very little after midseason.

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In the scenario where we lose all 4, we'd probably need to draft TWO, and fill the other spots with UDFA's and/or free agents.  I just don't see it.  Draft one to hopefully share starting duties with Powell, keep Ridley and Stacy as backups on the cheap. 

Well, we'll have to address at least 1 back in FA, probably the COP back for cheaper than Powell. (ftr i hope we keep powell. He seems to click in this offense, so why fight it). I like Dunbar in our system, and even Rainey if we're bringing in bodies... and don't tell anyone, but i'm sweet on CJ Anderson, though i'd never pay the price he'll be looking for. 

Meanwhile, a younger Ivory is a calling our name...

a-c-cutback.gif

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Good little write-up.  One thought... if Fitz gets 10m per year... would you rather spend 15m on Drew Brees should the Saints cut him?

I would rather get Brees, however unlikely that would be.  Yes, he sucks in cold weather.  Yes, he's 36.  But he'd be a game changer for the franchise nonetheless.  I'd be very, very excited about the possibilities with him, Marshall and Decker.

Luckily we have until March 12 to come to terms with Fitz.  We'll be able to take a good hard look at the QB landscape in the next 2 months.

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I stopped reading at Keep:  Zac Stacy,

Good thanks for saving us from your opinion.

 

The Jets currently have $14.2M in cap space projected for 2016, leaving a lot of tough decisions for Mike Maccagnan.  Below is an attempt to sift through these decisions position-by-position and see what needs to happen to improve the roster. 

Note that not all of the positions I have determined to need to be "addressed via draft" will actually happen, especially given our predominant strategy of taking the best available player.  However, if BPA aligns fairly closely with these positions of need I expect us to pull the trigger.  The remaining needs would all need to be addressed with trades or in free agency.

 

QB

Keep:  Bryce Petty

Re-Sign:  Ryan Fitzpatrick (3-year deal in neighborhood of $9-$12M per, $14-$18M guaranteed)

Cut:  Geno Smith ($0.5M dead money, $1.1M cap space saved)

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  While it is true that Geno Smith's cap number is small, he presents a distraction and a poor fit as a backup.  His primary role in 2015 ultimately ended up being a "buffer" to keep Bryce Petty from needing to see the field.  That buffer will likely no longer be needed as Petty enters his 2nd NFL season.  The Jets did not draft Geno Smith and have no reason to use up a roster spot on him. 

Adding another QB to the fold via the draft that fits what the regime would like to accomplish makes the most sense, with Fitzpatrick retained as the 2016 Week 1 starter.  (NOTE:  I used the deal Nick Foles got with St. Louis as the "upper limit" of what we should be willing to give Fitz.) 

Trading for a QB, while possible, only makes sense if it does not require dealing a 1st or 2nd rounder.  Drew Brees is a pipe dream. 

Solid perspective and yes we should be keeping Fitz while the young ones develop

 

RB

Keep:  Zac Stacy, Tommy Bohannon

Re-Sign:  Bilal Powell (3-year deal, $3-5M per, $6-7M guaranteed); Stevan Ridley (1 year, $760,000)

Allow to hit free agency:  Chris Ivory

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  RB is mostly a plug 'n' play position in the NFL, meaning costs should be kept low unless you have a truly special talent.  Chris Ivory's inability to stay healthy down the stretch means the Jets should allow someone else to overpay him, and perhaps recoup a conditional draft pick in 2017 in the process.  Ridley, while only 26, was nothing special, and can walk as a UFA unless he's willing to accept the veteran minimum deal (1 year, $760,000 based on his years accrued).  At 24 and under contract thru 2016, Stacy can stick around. 

This leaves Powell to be the only player commanding any kind of "big money".  The deal I would like to see him receive is similar to the one Frank Gore received in Indianapolis.  Powell is 27, so the length of his deal will be the biggest sticking point.  A 3-year deal would be the most Jet-friendly.  Of course, a lot of cap maneuvering by Maccagnan will need to occur to make this happen.  The Jets will then need to add a RB, preferably one who is a superb pass-catcher, in the middle rounds of the draft.  Powell, Ridley, Stacy and a Duke Johnson-type of RB would be a solid corps entering 2016.

I agree but I would like to see us target a real stud via the draft I think a great all around back would be a catalyst this offense a Matt Forte Type via the draft.

 

WR

Keep:  Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Devin Smith, Quincy Enunwa

Re-sign:  Kenbrell Thompkins (cheap 2-year deal OR 1 year, $675,000), Shaq Evans (1 year, $600,000)

Trade/Cut (after June 1st):  Jeremy Kerley ($600,000 dead money, $2.5M cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Chris Owusu, Joe Anderson

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  The status quo seems to be in order for the Jets at WR.  Marshall, Decker, Smith and Enunwa are all under contract thru either 2017 or 2018.  Thompkins, Owusu and Evans can be retained on the cheap and compete for spots on special teams, with Thompkins representing the best bet to be the # 4/5 WR.  With Jace Amaro hopefully returning in good health in 2016, the H-Back experiment for Enunwa should also be over.

Kerley should be either traded or cut based on his inability to fit the scheme and cap savings provided.  Waiting until after June 1st in order to reduce the dead money makes the best sense.  Before that point, every effort should be made to obtain a low round draft choice.  After investing a 2nd rounder last year at WR, the Jets are in a position where they will not need to pursue one in the 2016 draft unless the value is too good to pass up.

I would not mind a FA signing off another teams squad like the Cardinals who are loaded at WR you know a known talent who can step in to the 3 spot .... We may also address via the draft because WR's make good Special teamers and man do we need help on ST 

 

TE/H-Back

Keep:  Jace Amaro, Wes Saxton

Cut:  Jeff Cumberland ($1.9M cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Zach Sudfeld, Kellen Davis, Brandon Bostick

Need?  YES.  Address via free agency.

Rationale:  Cumberland becomes a cap casualty in 2016 with his role greatly diminished in Chan Gailey's system.  Re-signing cheaper is a possibility, but given that it would be better for Cumberland to find a home as a more traditional TE2 elsewhere, it doesn't seem particularly likely. 

With Jace Amaro returning, the Jets should look to see what he is capable of in 2016, with a decent backup in free agency being targeted to compete for the job with Wes Saxton.  TE is not particularly valuable in Chan Gailey's scheme, but the H-Back is.  And the Jets do not want to be forced to throw to blocking TE's like Kellen Davis again anytime soon.

Agree and hope Amaro can step it up. 

 

OT

Keep:  Breno Giacomini, Brent Qvale, Ben Ijalana

Re-structure:  D'Brickashaw Ferguson

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  OT is an area on the field where the Jets need to be proactive.  Currently, no prospects exist to be the future LT replacement for Ferguson, who is 32.  The Jets had some of the best pass protection in the NFL this season, but that advantage will evaporate as Ferguson begins to struggle with speed-rushers.  Brick represents a cap hit of $14.1M in 2016 and his contract expires in 2017, and thus the Jets will want to restructure/extend his deal to backload the cap hit. 

Meanwhile, at RT, Giacomini came to the Jets with a reputation as a road grader type in Seattle's zone blocking scheme, much like the one Chan Gailey utilizes.  However, he disappointed in this area.  He is not particularly expensive and should remain on the roster, but ideally the Jets use an early draft pick on an OT who can compete at RT and simultaneously develop into the LT the team will need down the road

Brick has played decent at best IMHO and his run blocking is disgusting not sure if this is the year to draft an heir apparent but its getting real close. 

 

G

Keep:  James Carpenter, Brian Winters, Dakota Dozier, Jarvis Harrison

Allow to hit free agency:  Willie Colon

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  James Carpenter was the most underrated Jet in 2015.  Any success the Jets had running to the left side was due to his presence in between Brick and Mangold.  Brian Winters showed flashes, especially in pass-blocking, that made him under-appreciated as well.  Meanwhile, the running game did not seem to be impacted greatly by the loss of Willie Colon after Week 8.  Thus, at 32, the Jets can afford to lose him.  Dakota Dozier backed up both LG and RG positions in 2015, and with 2015 5th rounder Jarvis Harrison on the practice squad, the position does not represent a need.  The usual UDFA signings should certainly be made to bolster the depth at guard, but in ordinary circumstances only 3 guards will need to be active on gamedays.

 

C

Keep:  Nick Mangold, Wesley Johnson

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Mangold only representing an $8.6M cap hit next season (down from $10.4M in 2015) and signed thru 2017, nothing needs to change at this spot.  Backup Wesley Johnson is also under contract until after 2016.

 

DE/DT

Keep:  Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Mike Catapano, Josh Martin

Franchise Tag:  Muhammad Wilkerson (estimated 1 year, $15-16M)

Allow to hit free agency:  Leger Douzable, Stephen Bowen, Lawrence Okoye, Julian Howsare

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  The Jets are as set as a team can be at DE/DT if Wilkerson agrees to be franchise tagged.  After suffering a broken leg, a long-term deal needs to be off the table for both sides.  Wilkerson needs to prove he's healthy, but the Jets cannot let him walk either.  He and Sheldon Richardson (who also should not be moved) represent the only 2 elite players on the roster under the age of 30.  Douzable will unfortunately need to be let go, but the Jets should keep both Catapano (25 years old) and Martin (24), who are both under contract thru 2016.

Sorry to say but I feel Harrison is a more important player than Wilkerson in our 3-4 defense. Players like Harrison are rare in this scheme and unfortunately I think some how some way something is going to happen with Richardson or Wilkerson .... I like Wilk a lot but you simply can't have this type of money at one position when all they really do is stop the run. While Wilk has 12 Sacks not many of them is any came at critical times in the game. I think Wilk needs to go. 

 

NT

Keep:  Deon Simon

Allow to hit free agency:  Damon Harrison

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  While the NT position is important for the Jets, high draft capital/free agent dollars no longer need to be invested in the position as it was in the past.  2015 7th rounder Deon Simon, a 6-4, 321-lbs 25-year old, should get the first crack as heir apparent to "Snacks" at NT, who will just be too costly to bring back considering how much is already invested in interior defensive linemen.  It will be a tough loss given how much of an impact Harrison has made in his 3 years as a Jet, but one has to remember he was originally an undrafted free agent.  Should Simon fail to secure the role, there might just be another Harrison out there in the 2016 UDFA pool.

Keep Harrison

 

OLB

Keep:  Lorenzo Mauldin, Trevor Reilly

Allow to hit free agency:  Calvin Pace, Deion Barnes, Julian Stanford

Need?  YES.  Address via draft and/or free agency.

Rationale:  Unless Calvin Pace agrees to the veteran minimum (1 year, $985,000), it's likely time for the 35-year old and the Jets to part ways, thus saving his roster spot for a younger, more athletic edge rusher.  Mauldin was great for the Jets in 2015, and a feel-good story to boot.  His presence eliminates the need for the Jets to feel they MUST take an edge rusher in the 1st round in the 2016 draft.  However, on the other side, Trevor Reilly is effective but may only be best used in a rotational role.  Thus, the Jets may need to sign another veteran OLB, though one that is a lot less longer in the tooth than Pace

Agree and when we draft we don't want to god damn projects we want REAL LB's that can play the position and cover as well.

 

ILB

Keep:  David Harris, Taiwan Jones

Re-Sign:  Erin Henderson (2-3 year deal OR 1-year, $885,000)

Allow to hit free agency:  Demario Davis, Jamari Lattimore

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  Davis will be another prominent cap casualty for the Jets.  It's tough to lose a 26-year old who has been a solid leader/character guy for the Jets, but he lacks the athleticism needed to handle the ILB role.  This is particularly true with a slow David Harris in tow.  An early draft pick will need to be used to upgrade the position, while Henderson and Taiwan Jones ought to be kept as capable backups

Agree. 

 

CB

Keep:  Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine, Marcus Williams, Dexter McDougle, Dee Milliner

Cut/trade:  Antonio Cromartie ($8M in cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Darrin Walls, Kevin Short

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With $12M in cap savings represented in Cromartie and Milliner, it would be the best decision to cut Cromartie and perhaps look for a trade partner with Milliner.  Assuming the former happens, bringing Cro back on a cheaper deal makes sense.  However, Milliner does not present much trade value, unfortunately, and $4M in savings is likely not enough to simply cut him and part ways with a former top-10 pick, even if it was another regime that made that decision.  Beyond UDFA pickups, corner does not need a lot of additions.

Time to say bye to Miliner

 

S

Keep:  Calvin Pryor, Marcus Gilchrist, Rontez Miles, Dion Bailey, Ronald Martin

Allow to hit free agency:  Antonio Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Gilchrist commanding a $5.6M cap hit in 2016, the Jets won't likely be able to spend much of significance on safety depth next season.  With that in mind, Antonio Allen, who suffered a torn achilles last August, probably shouldn't be brought back.  Jaiquawn Jarrett, a former 2nd round pick in 2011, also got hurt and probably won't be brought back.  Miles, Bailey and Martin are all under contract next season on the cheap to likely compete for 2 spots.  Whoever proves the least valuable on special teams should be let go in camp or preseason.

I think Antonio Allen would be a beast in this defense. He's also very good at covering the elite TE's I think he would eventually start again beside Pryor and I think he would be very good at creating turnovers

 

K

Keep:  Nick Folk

Allow to hit free agency:  Randy Bullock

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Folk returning to full health next season and under contract thru 2017, Bullock's services are no longer needed.  A missed 40-yard FG against the Bills Week 17 and the Jets' unwillingness to allow him to attempt 50+ yarders (he went 0-1 in 8 games) makes him a goner.

 

P

Allow to hit free agency:  Ryan Quigley

Need?  YES.  Address via free agency or UDFA.

Rationale:  After shanking a 21-yard punt against the Bills Week 17, seemingly ANY replacement will do at punter.

Quigley should be shot out of a cannon on opening day  

 

KR/PR

Need?  YES.  Address via draft/UDFA

Rationale:  Earlier in the above analysis, Jeremy Kerley (starting PR) and Antonio Cromartie (KR) get jettisoned, leaving only Kenbrell Thompkins (KR) and Eric Decker (PR) on the depth chart.  Neither of these are ideal choices, particular not Decker given his importance to the offense.  Devin Smith cannot be trusted after a key fumble against the Bills in November.  Shaq Evans returned 17 punts his Senior year at UCLA, but is merely a low level option and may not even make the team in 2016.  Thus, the Jets will need to address both the KR and PR spots this offseason.

 

LS

Keep:  Tanner Purdum

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  Purdum is under contract thru 2016.

 

 

Total approximate cap savings from cuts/trades:  $16-21M

Resulting approximate cap space for re-signing players/free agents:  $30-35M

Approximate 2016 cap hit from re-signed players:  $28-30M

 

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Thanks for taking the time and effort with this.  Pace, Cro and Kerley and Breno for starters gone. Restucture Brick .

 

Qb situation as usual for Jet fans predicament- do you look to get creative and try to make a trade for a starterr or bring back Fitz and another QB to be determined

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Good thanks for saving us from your opinion.

 

 

 

No problem enjoy the playoffs and Super Bowl without the Jets in it guys like you deserve this. 

Everyone has their own opinions and ideas its guys that make it personal that piss me off they think they are wise asses out to impress everyone adding a personal dig at a fellow fan for his thoughts.

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Like most of your list but don't see Fitz getting anywhere close to 9-12 mil per for 3 years

Dont think he's looking for that number

I hope you're right, but only a fairly significant hometown discount would put him below that range IMO.  If you're a starting QB in this league, the floor for what you make is high.  Look at the 2016 cap number for these QB's, who all received contract extensions fairly recently:

Joe Flacco:  $28.6M

Eli Manning:  $24.2M

Matt Ryan:  $23.8M

Matthew Stafford:  $22.5M

Peyton Manning:  $21.5M

Phillip Rivers:  $21M

Tony Romo:  $20.1M

Carson Palmer:  $19M

Russell Wilson:  $18.5M

Jay Cutler:  $17M

Tom Brady:  $15M

Andy Dalton:  $13.1M

Ryan Tannehill:  $11.6M

 

Granted, Nick Foles is at $8.8M and Brian Hoyer has a $5.3M cap hit next year.  And no one will argue Fitz should be considered of higher value than a lot of those names.  But there's no way he's accepting Foles or Hoyer money, and there's no way we end up devoting less than, say $7-8M of 2016 cap dollars to Fitz even if the deal is back-loaded.

 

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Good post.  I'm just going to adjust this a bit, working with your numbers. Changes in bold
 

QB

Keep:  Bryce Petty, Geno Smith

Re-Sign:  Ryan Fitzpatrick (3-year deal in neighborhood of $6-7M per, $12M guaranteed)

Need?  YES.  Potentially address via draft.

Rationale:  From the POV of talent, experience, and familiarity with the offense, Geno Smith is about as good a backup QB, with as good a contract, as we can hope to find.  Cutting him, while emotionally satisfying, would cost the team scarce resources (either cap space or draft picks) in order to upgrade a position where - the team hopes - the player never sees the field.  It's not a good use of resources.  That said, if the team feels there is a QB available in the draft who is a good value selection with upside potential, that would make Geno expendable.

You also allocated way too many dollars to Fitz.  As painful as Sunday's loss was, the silver lining is that it will do a pretty solid job of keeping his value down.  He is going to get paid a contract that puts him over tier of high-end backups (4M per) but not a true starter's contract; I doubt there's a QB needy team in the league that will look at Fitz as their long term solution, especially if they don't have the weapons in place to match what Marshall and Decker provided (not to mention Gailey).  Foles' contract is an outlier, based off his performance in the Chip Kelly offense that he wasn't able to replicate in St Louis.  I'll stick with Jason's evaluation of Fitz's contract (2 years, 10-11M) with a small bump for his performance over the five game run.

RB

Keep:  Tommy Bohannon

Re-Sign:  Bilal Powell (4-year deal, $2.5M per, first 3 years guaranteed)

Cut: Zac Stacy

Allow to hit free agency:  Chris Ivory, Stevan Ridley

Need?  YES.  Address via free agency & draft.

Rationale:  RB is absolutely a "plug and play" position, and investing big money here would be a mistake.  Powell is a good but eminently replaceable back; Darren Sproles got 3.5M per from Philly, but he brings a ST element to the table that Powell just doesn't.  Guarantee him 3 years and if he doesn't take it, look elsewhere - Ronnie Hillman, for example.  Unless Ivory comes at a significant discount, the remainder of the RB position should be filled through the draft and UDFA - a second or 3rd round RB with power would be a good fit and allocation of resources here, especially as we continue our transition to a pass-first team.

WR

Keep:  Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Devin Smith, Quincy Enunwa

Re-sign:  Kenbrell Thompkins (cheap 2-year deal OR 1 year, $675,000), Shaq Evans (1 year, $600,000)

Trade/Cut:  Jeremy Kerley ($1,800,000 dead money, $1.3M cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Chris Owusu, Joe Anderson

Need?  NO.

Rationale: Pretty much agree with you here, except no reason to push Kerley's dead money into 2017.  They should look to spend a 6th round pick on a speedster, and sign a UDFA or two to fill out this position group, but this is an area of strength, not weakness. 

TE

Keep:  Jace Amaro, Wes Saxton

Cut:  Jeff Cumberland ($1.9M cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Zach Sudfeld, Kellen Davis, Brandon Bostick

Need?  YES.  Address via undrafted free agency.

Rationale:  This position was a wasteland for the Jets in 2015 and the FA class is incredibly weak.  Gailey's offense deemphasizes the TE, so this isn't a position the Jets should allocate resources to.  Sign a blocking TE for vet minimum and hit the UDFA market hard for blocking TE types.  Would re-sign Sudfeld on a vet minimum deal to see how he comes back from injury

OT

Keep:  Breno Giacomini, Brent Qvale, Ben Ijalana

Re-structure:  D'Brickashaw Ferguson

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  OT is an area on the field where the Jets need to be proactive.  Currently, no prospects exist to be the future LT replacement for Ferguson, who is 32.  The Jets had some of the best pass protection in the NFL this season, but that advantage will evaporate as Ferguson begins to struggle with speed-rushers.  Brick represents a cap hit of $14.1M in 2016 and his contract expires in 2017, and thus the Jets will want to restructure/extend his deal to backload the cap hit. 

Meanwhile, at RT, Giacomini came to the Jets with a reputation as a road grader type in Seattle's zone blocking scheme, much like the one Chan Gailey utilizes.  However, he disappointed in this area.  He is not particularly expensive and should remain on the roster, but ideally the Jets use an early draft pick on an OT who can compete at RT and simultaneously develop into the LT the team will need down the road. 

Just going to leave this alone, completely agree.

G

Keep:  James Carpenter, Brian Winters, Dakota Dozier, Jarvis Harrison

Allow to hit free agency:  Willie Colon

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  James Carpenter was the most underrated Jet in 2015.  Any success the Jets had running to the left side was due to his presence in between Brick and Mangold.  Brian Winters showed flashes, especially in pass-blocking, that made him under-appreciated as well.  Meanwhile, the running game did not seem to be impacted greatly by the loss of Willie Colon after Week 8.  Thus, at 32, the Jets can afford to lose him.  Dakota Dozier backed up both LG and RG positions in 2015, and with 2015 5th rounder Jarvis Harrison on the practice squad, the position does not represent a need.  The usual UDFA signings should certainly be made to bolster the depth at guard, but in ordinary circumstances only 3 guards will need to be active on gamedays.

Same here.

C

Keep:  Nick Mangold, Wesley Johnson

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Mangold only representing an $8.6M cap hit next season (down from $10.4M in 2015) and signed thru 2017, nothing needs to change at this spot.  Backup Wesley Johnson is also under contract until after 2016.

Not so sure here

DE/DT

Keep:  Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Mike Catapano, Josh Martin

Re-sign: Leger Douzable, Stephen Bowen

Allow to hit free agency: Mohammed Wilkerson, Lawrence Okoye, Julian Howsare

Need?  No.

Rationale: Given the structure of our team, the costs of each player, and the compensatory picks the Jets will get back for each player, re-signing Harrison is more important than re-signing Wilkerson.  Richardson, Williams, and Harrison are a strong 3-4 DL, and it puts Sheldon into the Wilkerson playmaking role.  I hate watching Mo leave, but the contract he'll get will bring back a 3rd round pick and we need the cap space elsewhere.

NT

Keep:  Deon Simon

Re-signDamon Harrison (5 years, 30M)

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  Harrison is the best NT in the NFL and the engine of our run D.  He'll also cost about 7-8M per year less to keep long term than Mo, and doesn't have a replacement waiting on the roster.  He's the priority

 

OLB

Keep:  Lorenzo Mauldin, Trevor Reilly

Allow to hit free agency:  Calvin Pace, Deion Barnes, Julian Stanford

Need?  YES.  Address via draft and/or free agency.

Rationale:  Agree with your assessment, except here is where we spend the dollars we save by not keeping Mo.  Make a run at Von Miller, who the Broncos may not be able to franchise (both Miller and Osweiler will be FAs).  If he isn't available, look into Aldon Smith , One-Handed Jason Pierre Paul, and - yes - Greg Hardy.  We need a game wrecker at OLB

Pretty much agree with the rest of this,

 

ILB

Keep:  David Harris, Taiwan Jones

Re-Sign:  Erin Henderson (2-3 year deal OR 1-year, $885,000)

Allow to hit free agency:  Demario Davis, Jamari Lattimore

Need?  YES.  Address via draft.

Rationale:  Davis will be another prominent cap casualty for the Jets.  It's tough to lose a 26-year old who has been a solid leader/character guy for the Jets, but he lacks the athleticism needed to handle the ILB role.  This is particularly true with a slow David Harris in tow.  An early draft pick will need to be used to upgrade the position, while Henderson and Taiwan Jones ought to be kept as capable backups. 

 

CB

Keep:  Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine, Marcus Williams, Dexter McDougle, Dee Milliner

Cut/trade:  Antonio Cromartie ($8M in cap savings)

Allow to hit free agency:  Darrin Walls, Kevin Short

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With $12M in cap savings represented in Cromartie and Milliner, it would be the best decision to cut Cromartie and perhaps look for a trade partner with Milliner.  Assuming the former happens, bringing Cro back on a cheaper deal makes sense.  However, Milliner does not present much trade value, unfortunately, and $4M in savings is likely not enough to simply cut him and part ways with a former top-10 pick, even if it was another regime that made that decision.  Beyond UDFA pickups, corner does not need a lot of additions.

 

S

Keep:  Calvin Pryor, Marcus Gilchrist, Rontez Miles, Dion Bailey, Ronald Martin

Allow to hit free agency:  Antonio Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Gilchrist commanding a $5.6M cap hit in 2016, the Jets won't likely be able to spend much of significance on safety depth next season.  With that in mind, Antonio Allen, who suffered a torn achilles last August, probably shouldn't be brought back.  Jaiquawn Jarrett, a former 2nd round pick in 2011, also got hurt and probably won't be brought back.  Miles, Bailey and Martin are all under contract next season on the cheap to likely compete for 2 spots.  Whoever proves the least valuable on special teams should be let go in camp or preseason.

 

K

Keep:  Nick Folk

Allow to hit free agency:  Randy Bullock

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  With Folk returning to full health next season and under contract thru 2017, Bullock's services are no longer needed.  A missed 40-yard FG against the Bills Week 17 and the Jets' unwillingness to allow him to attempt 50+ yarders (he went 0-1 in 8 games) makes him a goner.

 

P

Allow to hit free agency:  Ryan Quigley

Need?  YES.  Address via free agency or UDFA.

Rationale:  After shanking a 21-yard punt against the Bills Week 17, seemingly ANY replacement will do at punter. 

 

KR/PR

Need?  YES.  Address via draft/UDFA

Rationale:  Earlier in the above analysis, Jeremy Kerley (starting PR) and Antonio Cromartie (KR) get jettisoned, leaving only Kenbrell Thompkins (KR) and Eric Decker (PR) on the depth chart.  Neither of these are ideal choices, particular not Decker given his importance to the offense.  Devin Smith cannot be trusted after a key fumble against the Bills in November.  Shaq Evans returned 17 punts his Senior year at UCLA, but is merely a low level option and may not even make the team in 2016.  Thus, the Jets will need to address both the KR and PR spots this offseason.

 

LS

Keep:  Tanner Purdum

Need?  NO.

Rationale:  Purdum is under contract thru 2016.

 

 

Total approximate cap savings from cuts/trades:  $16-21M

Resulting approximate cap space for re-gning players/free agents:  $30-35M

Approximate 2016 cap hit from re-signed players:  $28-30M

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No problem enjoy the playoffs and Super Bowl without the Jets in it guys like you deserve this. 

Everyone has their own opinions and ideas its guys that make it personal that piss me off they think they are wise asses out to impress everyone adding a personal dig at a fellow fan for his thoughts.

I have issue with you constantly bashing our QB all year long trying to be "that guy" who knew he sucked ...well he didn't suck he played great and I think hes had that in him his whole career just never got the opportunity to prove it playing with sh*t head teams. There is a thin line in the NFL some QB's just go into bad situations you know teams like Cleveland or teams that just get that so called franchise guy then NEVER surround him with any talent worth a crap kind of like we di with Sanchez. We are one of those teams and we got a guy who went out and put up numbers we have never seen in our lives other than one season with Vinny and one with Joe Willy and all you did was come in here and bitch and complain.

In regards to saying keep your opinion to yourself ...I was playing with you, joking around I take plenty of it as well and to be honest it should all be in good fun so I hope I didn't insult you too much just have fun with it bro.

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You put it a lot of work, so I pushed through it. All in all, it's very astute in most areas (though we have to skin some fat in the secondary), and the message is pretty clear; We have to get younger and more explosive on offense and our linebacking corps..

We have to hit on picks because i think a certain amount of $$$ is going to get invested in the Oline, and on extending a few players. This draft isn't particularly strong at OT, and LBs (IMO) so increased emphasis on the following:

--Drafting a dynamic RB who can close games

--Getting depth at WR/TE

--Need bolster our entire LB corps. All of them.

--Find successors for @ OT and C

I think the one area we mind spend on FA is for someone like Bruce Irvin.  Drafting any linebackers should be someone like a Reggie Ragland or a Scooby Wright in the 1st to help the ILB position.  I don't like the idea of drafting a RB in the 1st.  For every AP that goes in the 1st, I bet there are two Trent Richardson's......

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