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Look ahead to Jets 2016 opponents


jamesr

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So I've been a bit bored of the Superbowl "build up" to be honest, and there's enough talk about free agents, player decisions etc.

I thought I'd take a look at next year's opponents, and see what I could figure out around the view that next year's schedule is much harder than this year's.

If you look at this year's opponents, they were a combined 113-143. (NOTE - that's counting the AFC East team's records twice, as we play each twice). That's pretty low. Consider that the same teams in 2014 put up a record of 125-131 and you can see there were a few changes year on year that played a huge role in this : Romo's injury alone dropped the Boys from 12-4 to 4-12, a swing of 8 games. Miami and Cleveland both regressed to the tune of 4 games apiece (again counting Miami twice) and Philly dropped by 3. Balancing some of that off, Washington improved by 5 games and Oakland by 4.

Looking at next year's opponents, their combined 2015 record (doubling up for AFC East teams) was 136-120. So off the bat that's a 23 win swing. Now I'm sure there'll be teams that improve on this year, and teams that decline, so the picture next year will be very different. But we can't anticipate that. What I decided to look at is where those 23 wins appear amongst our opponents.

How I looked at it was this :

AFC East --> AFC East - 0 change (they're the exact same opponents as this year)

AFC South --> AFC North - +5 wins (AFC North in 2015 went 30-34, AFC South went 25-39)

NFC East --> NFC West - +9 wins (NFC East in 2015 went 26-38, NFC West went 35-29)

4th Place opponents --> 2nd Place opponents - +9 wins (this year we had Oakland & Cleveland as our 4th place teams, record of 10-22; next year we get KC and Indy, record of 19-13)

So our schedule is 23 wins harder (based purely on 2015 records) because the AFC North and NFC West are both tougher divisions than the AFC South and NFC East, and our 2nd place finish lines us up against two stronger teams.

Now, if we were to repeat our record against each set of opponents in 2016, we'd obviously end with the same record of 10-6.

In other words :

AFC East : 3-3

AFC North : 3-1

NFC West : 3-1

2nd place : 1-1

Using this as a start point, obviously the place we can look to make the biggest headway is right at home, in the AFC East. It's worth bearing in mind, while it may feel we were a distant second place ... had we beaten NE in early in the season, and all else stayed the same, we'd have won the division. We can't do any better against Miami (2-0) or any worse against Buffalo (0-2) - if we are to improve in 2016, we cannot go 0-2 again there, 1-1 is a minimum, but given how close both games were if we can win one, there's no reason we can't win both. And while sweeping NE would be perfect, I see more chance of us going 0-2 than 2-0, as things stand.

We did pretty well outside of the AFC East overall, going 7-3 combined. Consider - the Patsies went 8-2 outside the AFC East. Maintaining that in 2016 looks to be a lot harder. However, if you look in more detail :

AFC North - Cleveland are still stuck in reverse, on their 97th head coach this decade,and have no QB. Baltimore should be healthy again, and will be looking to bounce back in a big way. Cincy and Pitt will likely both stay strong. To repeat a 3-1 overall record we'd probably need to beat Cleveland and Baltimore PLUS either Cincy or Pitt. I don't see that as impossible, but I also see 2-2 as more likely than 4-0. So chances of improving our record here are not great, IMHO.

NFC West - ouch. While i don't see SF or LA being much of a challenge, Arizona and Seattle are both very strong teams. Arizona may struggle after their implosion in the NFCCG - timing of the game against them could be crucial - and we also play them on the road. At least we get Seattle at home, but again taking things as they stand right now, 2-2 would look more likely to me than 4-0; 3-1 would mean we either have to beat Arizona on the road or Seattle at home.

2nd place opponents - Indy at home; KC away. Indy wouldn't overly worry me, KC at home would have been nicer but even on the road I don't see that as insurmountable. They're good, but not great, and if we had played them in 2015 I'd have fancied our chances. 2-0 is not out of the question here. (And if we do beat KC we'd have 'overcome' 8 wins of that 23 win swing I talked abut earlier, in one game).

So overall :

If we are to improve on our 2015 standings, we MUST beat Buffalo at least once, if not twice. 5-1 in the AFC East may be essential as I don't see us improving on 7-3 outside of the East, more likely that we'd drop back a little based on the specific opponents. If we do go 6-4 outside, then 3-3 in the East again won't cut it; 4-2 would give us a strong chance however (how likely is it we'd go 10-6 and miss the play offs a second time?).

I know there's a lot of change yet to happen to all teams - free agency, draft, injuries - but looking at the schedule right now I'm not sitting thinking "we're screwed". I'm thinking that while it'll be tough, there's no doubt we'd deserve a play off spot if we earned one. Can't blame the cup cake schedule, that's for sure.

 

 

 

 

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I would say the 2016 AFC east will be tougher than 2015,  NE will be NE and I expect Buf and Miami to be much improved.

Interesting you say that ... on overall record the AFC East and NFC South were the two strongest divisions in 2015 (both going 36-28). I'm sure it's not a coincidence that we played the same divisions (AFC South, NFC East) which were by far the weakest two. (AFC South 25-39, NFC East 26-38).

So although the AFC East teams may be much improved next year ... will it show in their records, or will the scheduling bring the records back towards the norm?

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I would say the 2016 AFC east will be tougher than 2015,  NE will be NE and I expect Buf and Miami to be much improved.

of course that's what everyone said last year as well.

as for the others, we get Seattle at home so that should help. Arizona away is next to impossible.

we have beaten the Steelers in 3 straight regular season games, I believe

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of course that's what everyone said last year as well.

as for the others, we get Seattle at home so that should help. Arizona away is next to impossible.

we have beaten the Steelers in 3 straight regular season games, I believe

We lost to them in 2013 but beat them in 2014. 

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of course that's what everyone said last year as well.

as for the others, we get Seattle at home so that should help. Arizona away is next to impossible.

we have beaten the Steelers in 3 straight regular season games, I believe

the division overall was better than 2014.

Then it must be 3 of the last 4 because we beat them at home twice recently and at Heinz field in 2010

we lost 3 straight to them(including playoffs) prior to our win in 2014.  We only have 5 all time wins against Pitt:

1988

2003

2007

2010

2014

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I used to think more negatively about the upcoming scheduled opponents but I don't anymore.   A lot of these teams go through changes including ourselves so you never really know how the good or bad these teams will be.  Yes Brady is still Brady etc. but lets see what happens with the others.  Off the bat I would say we beat Indy at home and lose to the Chiefs away but then the time comes and it ends up the opposite.  

In the end it all balances out and your teams record will reflect how they really are.

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the division overall was better than 2014.

we lost 3 straight to them(including playoffs) prior to our win in 2014.  We only have 5 all time wins against Pitt:

1988

2003

2007

2010

2014

But 3 of the last 5. And I don't include playoffs. For some reason, the Steelers struggle with us when we are major underdogs to them.

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I think we can beat the following teams next year

Pats 1

Dolphins 2

Rams (at home)

Niners

Browns

Colts (at home)

That's 7 wins.

I dont think they can beat the Cardinals or KC away. So that's 2 losses.

That leaves 7 games in the interim. Ravens (at home), Bengals (at home), Steelers, Bills twice, Seahawks (at home) and one of the two New England games

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I think we can beat the following teams next year

Pats 1

Dolphins 2

Rams (at home)

Niners

Browns

Colts (at home)

That's 7 wins.

I dont think they can beat the Cardinals or KC away. So that's 2 losses.

That leaves 7 games in the interim. Ravens (at home), Bengals (at home), Steelers, Bills twice, Seahawks (at home) and one of the two New England games

a lot can and will change btw now and then.  some teams we think will stink will be really good, some teams we think will be really good will stink.

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So I've been a bit bored of the Superbowl "build up" to be honest, and th....

Right now, it looks like we're in for a tough year, but as we all know, today's picture is nowhere near what anything will look like come august and september, which will also look drastically different from november and december. 

Still, fun exercise and fun read. Appreciate the effort. 

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On 2/3/2016 at 9:38 AM, nyjunc said:

I would say the 2016 AFC east will be tougher than 2015,  NE will be NE and I expect Buf and Miami to be much improved.

I don't know if I agree that Buffalo and Miami will be muched improved. NE, while still good, appears to be getting more vulnerable. They did lose 3 of their last 4 games.

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25 minutes ago, JetsFanatic said:

I don't know if I agree that Buffalo and Miami will be muched improved. NE, while still good, appears to be getting more vulnerable. They did lose 3 of their last 4 games.

they still won the division easily and until Brady slows down they will own the division.  Miami can't really be worse considering the talent they have and Buffalo was close if not for a few key injuries.  Next year will be MUCH tougher than this year, we could be a better team and win less games.

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On 03/02/2016 at 7:07 PM, nyjunc said:

a lot can and will change btw now and then.  some teams we think will stink will be really good, some teams we think will be really good will stink.

Prime candidates to be better next year I think are Baltimore and Indy.

Prime candidates for a drop off are harder to find, I think ... KC maybe (that sort of run they had isn't easy to replicate) though that division could be very different next year.

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8 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Prime candidates to be better next year I think are Baltimore and Indy.

Prime candidates for a drop off are harder to find, I think ... KC maybe (that sort of run they had isn't easy to replicate) though that division could be very different next year.

Bal healthy and they will be in the mix.  Luck back and Indy wins that division.  I think Den will drop off, too many FAs, getting older.  Can osweiler handle the job?

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6 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

Bal healthy and they will be in the mix.  Luck back and Indy wins that division.  I think Den will drop off, too many FAs, getting older.  Can osweiler handle the job?

AFC West could be between KC and Oakland this year, with Osweiler making Denver a real wild card. Not sure how good SD will be even when healthy.

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Just now, nyjunc said:

I really like Oak and Jax to take a leap next year

Oakland are a bit deceptive ... though they finished 7-9, they started a lot stronger and started to fade a bit late on. Cooper was a good example of this (and maybe a big cause of it). Going into his second year I wouldn't see the same happening again, which could help them finish stronger. They're definitely a team I see being better rather than worse.

Agree on Jax too (though I think they get tipped to make a leap every year ... )

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5 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Oakland are a bit deceptive ... though they finished 7-9, they started a lot stronger and started to fade a bit late on. Cooper was a good example of this (and maybe a big cause of it). Going into his second year I wouldn't see the same happening again, which could help them finish stronger. They're definitely a team I see being better rather than worse.

Agree on Jax too (though I think they get tipped to make a leap every year ... )

one of these we have to be right about Jacksonville?  :D

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On ‎2‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 8:21 AM, UnitedWhofans said:

Then it must be 3 of the last 4 because we beat them at home twice recently and at Heinz field in 2010

And lost to them at Heinz in the 2011 AFC Championship. I know you're talking regular season, but come on, lets tell the whole truth here.

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The Jets have never defeated Baltimore. Teams are looking at their schedule too and see the Jets on it. I don't think that they are happy about that either. The Jets were a 10 win team in a very difficult division. Go Jets.

Jets are 1-8 all time vs Baltimore ... granted the only win was in 1997. Only team we've never beaten is the Eagles.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

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