Elite defense is alternate path around NFL QB star system

[Gas2No99]

Elite defense is alternate path around NFL QB star system

• 
  Kevin SeifertNFL Nation

So you want to win a Super Bowl?

Here's a simple, one-step guide: Get yourself a Hall of Fame quarterback, sit back and wait.

But don't forget, defenses win championships.

Except, of course, when they don't.

And so goes any attempt to find the ultimate truth in the NFL. As the league transitions to the offseason, and teams focus on improving rosters for 2016, it's hard to deny that the straightest line to a championship is riding an elite-level quarterback. But it's also impossible to ignore that the past three seasons have rendered that simple plan well short of foolproof.

The NFL's top defense has advanced to the Super Bowl in each of those years, and in two of them it slayed an All-Pro caliber quarterback and carried its team to a championship. The Denver Broncos forced Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton into his worst performance of the season to win Super Bowl 50, and the Seattle Seahawks throttled a still-elite Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.

One of the biggest mistakes in NFL analysis is projecting the most recent result into future trends. No, we are not necessarily entering an era when defense is more important than quarterback play. But there is reason for hope among teams who don't have a top-10 quarterback and know how hard it is to find one.

2015 NFL Passing Records

Completion percentage	63
TD passes	842
Passer rating	90.2
INT percentage	2.38
Net passing yards/game	487.7
Individual games with 3+ TD passes	58
30+ passing TD/season	11
Source: NFL

Let's take a closer look at what has happened in the NFL's so-called passing era.

Passing production and efficiency continued to rise in 2015. As the chart shows, NFL teams have never thrown for more yards per game, tossed more touchdowns, completed passes at a higher rate and thrown interceptions at a lower rate than they did this season. There was a record number of quarterbacks with at least 30 touchdowns passes, and quarterbacks threw at least three touchdowns in a game more times than in any other season in NFL history.

Against that backdrop, the NFL's eventual MVP -- who threw 27 touchdowns and one interception in his final eight games -- advanced to the Super Bowl. There, he faced a defense that finished the season ranked first in yards allowed (283.1) and fourth in points (18.5). We all know what happened next.

The Seahawks spun a similar story two years ago, stifling the highest-scoring offense in NFL history and limiting Manning -- who had thrown for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns in the regular season -- to eight points. In between those two games, of course, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady torched the Seahawks for 328 yards and four touchdowns in an eventual 28-24 victory in Super Bowl XLIX.

In each case, the Seahawks entered the game with the NFL's top defense in both yards allowed and points.

Brady's performance in Super Bowl XLIX extended the closest thing to a trend as we've had in the passing era. From 2000-12, whenever an elite quarterback -- or one who entered the playoffs performing at that level -- faced a top-five defense in the Super Bowl, the quarterback won. It happened four times in all:

• Peyton Manning beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI.

• Eli Manning beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

• Aaron Rodgers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.

• Joe Flacco beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII.

So what does all this mean?

There is plenty to be said for the impact of a great defense. The 2015 Broncos were the 12th team in NFL history to advance to the Super Bowl with the top-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Those teams are 10-2 in the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Stats & Information. On the other hand, the Panthers are now the fifth team in the past six instances to lose the Super Bowl after advancing with the NFL's highest-scoring offense.

A great defense can take down a great quarterback, even when its own team is quarterback-deficient. Manning was one of the NFL's worst starters in 2015, and Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was a tick above average (No. 12 in Total QBR) in 2013.

The Broncos' defense came out on top against the regular-season MVP in Super Bowl 50. Al Bello/Getty Images

At the same time, I'm not sure how many teams would trade a franchise quarterback for a top-notch defense. When you look at the Broncos and Seahawks' defenses, you see it required exceptional personnel decisions and luck in both the draft and free agency.

The Broncos drafted linebackers Von Miller and Danny Trevathan along with defensive linemen Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson. Their free-agent haul included linebacker DeMarcus Ware, cornerback Aqib Talib and safety T.J. Ward.

 

The Seahawks, of course, supplemented recent draft classes that included cornerback Richard Sherman, safety Earl Thomas, safety Kam Chancellor, linebacker K.J. Wright and linebacker Bruce Irvin with free-agent defensive ends Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett.

Drafting an elite quarterback, if you're lucky enough to be in position to do so, is a quicker fix and can cover for mistakes or lack of depth in other areas. When Manning beat the Bears, his Indianapolis Colts defense ranked No. 23 in points allowed. Eli Manning's New York Giants defense ranked No. 25 in points allowed entering Super Bowl XLVI and No. 17 before Super Bowl XLII.

The lesson, if there is one, is that the NFL's passing era hasn't totally blocked off alternate paths to the championship. Keep that in mind as you sweat out the offseason.

[pdxgreen]

Elite defense or Star QB? That's comforting since we are no where close to either.

[Larz]

elite pass rush, not elite run stuffing

[afosomf]

You can win a SB with an average to below average play from QB if you have an elite pass rush in a 1 game win scenerio. the problem is getting to playoffs with a Jag at QB and winning 3 rd games before SB.

 

It simply wont happen. better chance to get laid by scarlet jo

[Mainejet]

We don't have either side of that ledger. Our defense sucks in comparison to Denver's. Todd Bowles is a sh*tty Head Coach and the Jets defense underperformed on his watch. What's worse is our QB, although he had a much better year than everyone thought he was capable of, will likely revert back to his Buffalo days sooner rather than later. Fitzpatrick has always been a f*cking terrible QB, there's every reason to think he will ultimately become that again. I think Mike MacCagnan has done a nice job thus far drafting, but this year will be the ultimate determining factor on how the Jets fare in the next 5 years or so. He doesn't have tons of cap space this offseason. It is of utmost importance for him to hit on draft picks.

Then, hopefully he realizes that Todd Bowles sucks and he needs to be fired.

[Integrity28]

Groundbreaking article. 

[Xtina]

I like how they got around calling Flacco an elite QB, LOL 

[Joe Jets fan]

51 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

We don't have either side of that ledger. Our defense sucks in comparison to Denver's. Todd Bowles is a sh*tty Head Coach and the Jets defense underperformed on his watch. What's worse is our QB, although he had a much better year than everyone thought he was capable of, will likely revert back to his Buffalo days sooner rather than later. Fitzpatrick has always been a f*cking terrible QB, there's every reason to think he will ultimately become that again. I think Mike MacCagnan has done a nice job thus far drafting, but this year will be the ultimate determining factor on how the Jets fare in the next 5 years or so. He doesn't have tons of cap space this offseason. It is of utmost importance for him to hit on draft picks.

Then, hopefully he realizes that Todd Bowles sucks and he needs to be fired.

Please just go away

[TuscanyTile2]

9 hours ago, Xtina said:

I like how they got around calling Flacco an elite QB, LOL 

There was at least one guy on ESPN (I can't remember his name) who was calling Flacco elite before he won a Superbowl.  I think it was before the playoffs that year too.  I remember thinking the guy was crazy but Flacco certainly did more than his fair share getting them that title.  I'd say he'd never reached elite status but he reminds me somewhat of Big Ben.

[Jet Nut]

10 hours ago, Joe Jets fan said:

Please just go away

His posts all suck, dont they?

[southparkcpa]

49 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

There was at least one guy on ESPN (I can't remember his name) who was calling Flacco elite before he won a Superbowl.  I think it was before the playoffs that year too.  I remember thinking the guy was crazy but Flacco certainly did more than his fair share getting them that title.  I'd say he'd never reached elite status but he reminds me somewhat of Big Ben.

Had REX been HC of the Ravens, Flacco would be Geno.  That team was careful with him and built a team around his 

skill set.   I bet the HC even went to offensive meetings.  

[Charlie Brown]

11 hours ago, Mainejet said:

We don't have either side of that ledger. Our defense sucks in comparison to Denver's. Todd Bowles is a sh*tty Head Coach and the Jets defense underperformed on his watch. What's worse is our QB, although he had a much better year than everyone thought he was capable of, will likely revert back to his Buffalo days sooner rather than later. Fitzpatrick has always been a f*cking terrible QB, there's every reason to think he will ultimately become that again. I think Mike MacCagnan has done a nice job thus far drafting, but this year will be the ultimate determining factor on how the Jets fare in the next 5 years or so. He doesn't have tons of cap space this offseason. It is of utmost importance for him to hit on draft picks.

Then, hopefully he realizes that Todd Bowles sucks and he needs to be fired.

You are a funny guy.

You are still defending Rex Ryan all over the internet and are unwilling to let Bowles have a second season despite winning 10 games after you said that Bowles could win at all.

Stop it!!!!

[Jet Nut]

11 hours ago, Mainejet said:

We don't have either side of that ledger. Our defense sucks in comparison to Denver's. Todd Bowles is a sh*tty Head Coach and the Jets defense underperformed on his watch. What's worse is our QB, although he had a much better year than everyone thought he was capable of, will likely revert back to his Buffalo days sooner rather than later. Fitzpatrick has always been a f*cking terrible QB, there's every reason to think he will ultimately become that again. I think Mike MacCagnan has done a nice job thus far drafting, but this year will be the ultimate determining factor on how the Jets fare in the next 5 years or so. He doesn't have tons of cap space this offseason. It is of utmost importance for him to hit on draft picks.

Then, hopefully he realizes that Todd Bowles sucks and he needs to be fired.

Yeah, too bad we didnt have the coaching genius that is Rex still in charge.

 

[Tinstar]

Quote

 

Getting back on topic, regarding a strong defense and it's importance towards winning the Super Bowl .  We are much closer to having that dominant defense than we are to having a Franchise QB IMHO .  To that end, we need the edge rusher extreme and an Inside Linebacker who can cover and blitz .  The defensive line and the secondary are stout even if both areas can use additional support.

I have to wonder if it's not worth it to do whatever is needed to secure that edge Rusher if you believe there is 1 can could be a difference maker to this defense.

[Freemanm]

This was already proven by the Ravens in 2000 and the Bucs in 2002 - hell, even the Bears in '85. This premise isn't new. Problem is, the article makes it sound like it's easier to build a shutdown D like the ones any of the aforementioned teams had than it is to obtain an elite QB. If you take a look at how many elite QBs have won SBs vs. how many elite defenses did, the QBs win out. 

The Jets have neither (although I thought we did after we beat the Colts on MNF). We still have a long ways to go, as Fitz most likely isn't going to play at the level he did this year and while Geno still has promise, he clearly isn't the guy. 

[SenorGato]

Assuming they keep Wilkerson, is a situatuonal pass rushing DE/LB, a cover linebacker, and replacing their worst starting CB/DB last year such a tough thing to do in an offseason? I definitely think this defense can be elite sooner rather than later. 

[Powpow]

15 hours ago, Mainejet said:

We don't have either side of that ledger. Our defense sucks in comparison to Denver's. Todd Bowles is a sh*tty Head Coach and the Jets defense underperformed on his watch. What's worse is our QB, although he had a much better year than everyone thought he was capable of, will likely revert back to his Buffalo days sooner rather than later. Fitzpatrick has always been a f*cking terrible QB, there's every reason to think he will ultimately become that again. I think Mike MacCagnan has done a nice job thus far drafting, but this year will be the ultimate determining factor on how the Jets fare in the next 5 years or so. He doesn't have tons of cap space this offseason. It is of utmost importance for him to hit on draft picks.

Then, hopefully he realizes that Todd Bowles sucks and he needs to be fired.

The cold must be numbing your brain.

[TuscanyTile2]

5 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

There was at least one guy on ESPN (I can't remember his name) who was calling Flacco elite before he won a Superbowl.  I think it was before the playoffs that year too.  I remember thinking the guy was crazy but Flacco certainly did more than his fair share getting them that title.  I'd say he'd never reached elite status but he reminds me somewhat of Big Ben.

It was John Clayton.  It was originally published October 26, 2011.  They won the Superbowl in Feb 2013.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/hot?id=7178216

[jgb]

19 hours ago, Mainejet said:

We don't have either side of that ledger. Our defense sucks in comparison to Denver's. Todd Bowles is a sh*tty Head Coach and the Jets defense underperformed on his watch. What's worse is our QB, although he had a much better year than everyone thought he was capable of, will likely revert back to his Buffalo days sooner rather than later. Fitzpatrick has always been a f*cking terrible QB, there's every reason to think he will ultimately become that again. I think Mike MacCagnan has done a nice job thus far drafting, but this year will be the ultimate determining factor on how the Jets fare in the next 5 years or so. He doesn't have tons of cap space this offseason. It is of utmost importance for him to hit on draft picks.

Then, hopefully he realizes that Todd Bowles sucks and he needs to be fired.

"every reason to think?" ya if you ignore all the reasons that say the opposite, sure there is "every reason" to think the way you want everyone else too.

what a chooch.

[afosomf]

11 hours ago, Tinstar said:

Getting back on topic, regarding a strong defense and it's importance towards winning the Super Bowl .  We are much closer to having that dominant defense than we are to having a Franchise QB IMHO .  To that end, we need the edge rusher extreme and an Inside Linebacker who can cover and blitz .  The defensive line and the secondary are stout even if both areas can use additional support.

I have to wonder if it's not worth it to do whatever is needed to secure that edge Rusher if you believe there is 1 can could be a difference maker to this defense.

You need 2 elite edge rushers, doesnt work with just 1, with 1 you can game plan 

[SenorGato]

3 minutes ago, afosomf said:

You need 2 elite edge rushers, doesnt work with just 1, with 1 you can game plan 

The vast majority of teams, all of the teams really, don't have the interior pass rush the Jets bring down after down. Having multiple 300+ pounders capable of getting to the QB is a nice way to take eyes and OL off of outside guys. One outside guy would go a long way on this roster, and Mauldin showed some potential as a complimentary OLB.

[afosomf]

Just now, SenorGato said:

The vast majority of teams, all of the teams really, don't have the interior pass rush the Jets bring down after down. Having multiple 300+ pounders capable of getting to the QB is a nice way to take eyes and OL off of outside guys. One outside guy would go a long way on this roster, and Mauldin showed some potential as a complimentary OLB.

One is better than none for sure, the Broncos Interior DL was also stout.  Having Ware and Von make it impossible to stop

[SenorGato]

Just now, afosomf said:

One is better than none for sure, the Broncos Interior DL was also stout.  Having Ware and Von make it impossible to stop

No DL in the league was all that close to the Jets' DL. Williams and Wilkerson in particular are pretty special players for their durability, size, length, and ability to play run and pass all over the DL. 

[afosomf]

3 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

No DL in the league was all that close to the Jets' DL. Williams and Wilkerson in particular are pretty special players for their durability, size, length, and ability to play run and pass all over the DL. 

Malik Jackson  is on par with Mo and will command the same amount in FA, Too early to crown Williams, wolfe is a very good player

[SenorGato]

13 minutes ago, afosomf said:

Malik Jackson  is on par with Mo and will command the same amount in FA, Too early to crown Williams, wolfe is a very good player

Lol no, not even in the same league. While it's early, Williams is set up to be a monster himself. Jackson and Wolfe are nice complimentary players, but yeah there just isn't a DL in the league that generates the kind of interior pass rush the Jets do.

[afosomf]

5 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Lol no, not even in the same league. While it's early, Williams is set up to be a monster himself. Jackson and Wolfe are nice complimentary players, but yeah there just isn't a DL in the league that generates the kind of interior pass rush the Jets do.

We shall see on Jackson, in the end the $$$ they receive will tell the story. 

[SenorGato]

Just now, afosomf said:

We shall see on Jackson, in the end the $$$ they receive will tell the story. 

We've seen with Jackson/Wilkerson. They're years into their careers and Wilkerson's been way better the whole time. The money won't even be all that close, but if it is then someone's getting a steal with Mo.

[Tinstar]

45 minutes ago, afosomf said:

You need 2 elite edge rushers, doesnt work with just 1, with 1 you can game plan 

agreed, but you gotta start somewhere . We have quite a few young linebackers on our roster, and we can only hope someone steps forward .

[SenorGato]

Does anyone care that Ware was basically a role player who wasn't on the field over 60% of the time for the Broncos last year? It's amazing what winning a SB does for the reputation of a team and individuals, and I say this as a massive fan of Ware from Day 1. The Jets would be fine getting someone to bring what Freeney brought to the Cardinals, let alone two elite edge rushers.

Edit: In his two years as a Bronco, Ware has been on the field for about half of the defensive snaps.

[afosomf]

9 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Does anyone care that Ware was basically a role player who wasn't on the field over 60% of the time for the Broncos last year? It's amazing what winning a SB does for the reputation of a team and individuals, and I say this as a massive fan of Ware from Day 1. The Jets would be fine getting someone to bring what Freeney brought to the Cardinals, let alone two elite edge rushers.

Edit: In his two years as a Bronco, Ware has been on the field for about half of the defensive snaps.

Well bringing Ware in helped them win a SB, and ware was pretty pretty good  in playoffs. The 2 of them were Lights out. And ware did hurt his back midseason so calling him a role player is not very accurate

[SenorGato]

8 minutes ago, afosomf said:

Well bringing Ware in helped them win a SB, and ware was pretty pretty good  in playoffs. The 2 of them were Lights out. And ware did hurt his back midseason so calling him a role player is not very accurate

Ware missed ~35% of the snaps in 2014 too. I would imagine elite edge rushers see the field more often - like how Miller has been on the field for 80% of the snaps the past two seasons.

More valuable than Ware to the Broncos is their elite secondary led by Chris Harris Jr.....Nobody talks about them, but they're loaded.

[Snell41]

I love articles that take a canned outcome of one game and decree it is the way to win an entire season. Cam Newton was elite all season. Peyton Manning is a HOFer.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jet Nut]

Denver had a great run in the playoffs but their D was up and down all season.  Now they've been anointed elite.  Don't see elite.  Don't even see the season Seattle had a few back, never mind Raven, Steeler or Bears like.  

[Mainejet]

I'm not defending Rex anymore, I am all done with that. But I do feel compelled to use him as an example as to why Todd Bowles needs to become a better HC. Rex beat him twice with a much less talented team and in the second game we had EVERYTHING to play for, they had NOTHING to play for. This is truly a warning sign about the HC. Losing to Rex is inexcusable as well it should be viewed that by every Jets fan. As Todd Bowles is the HC, I hope Woody gives him every opportunity to get better. But right now I see a rookie HC that got outcoached several times this season. I see a coach that had a lot of players playing very uninspired in the middle of the season, loafing on defense, just all around subpar football. The 5 game winning streak was nice, but IMO not winning the last and most important game in regards to their playoff chances erases ALL of the good behind the 5 game winning streak. I want this guy to get better and if he doesn't I'll have no sympathy whatsoever when he gets fired. Just remember though it's business, it isn't personal.

[Gas2No99]

13 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

Just remember though it's business, it isn't personal.