1st round Mock based on Private Visits

[Jetsfan80]

I decided to do a mock that attempted to remove as much guesswork as possible.  Obviously, trades cloud many of the picks that can happen.  However, if everyone were to remain in their spots, I mocked picks based solely on whether or not players made private visits. 

For instance, the consensus pick for the Browns at 8 seems to be Ezekiel Elliott.  The problem is he didn't make a single visit with the Browns.  That makes that pick seem unlikely in my mind.  Paxton Lynch, meanwhile, had both a Combine meeting AND a private visit.  So that was the pick for me at 8.

Here is my source:

http://walterfootball.com/ProspectMeetings/ByTeam

 

The picks:

1.  Rams:  Jared Goff, QB, Cal

2.  Eagles:  Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota St.

3.  Chargers:  Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss

4.  Cowboys:  Jalen Ramsey, CB, Cowboys

5.  Jaguars:  Joey Bosa, DE, Jaguars

6.  Ravens:  Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

7.  49ers:  Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

8.  Browns:  Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

9.  Bucs:  Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida

10.  Giants:  Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

11.  Bears:  Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio St

12.  Saints:  Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama

13.  Dolphins:  Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson

14.  Raiders:  Jonathan Bullard, DT, Florida

15.  Titans: DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon

16.  Lions:  A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama

17.  Falcons:  Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia

18.  Colts:  Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky

19.  Bills:  Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan St.

20.  Jets:  Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson (LOL)

21.  Redskins:  Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama

22.  Texans:  Emanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma St.

23.  Vikings:  Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio St.

24.  Bengals:  Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor

25.  Steelers:  Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia

26.  Seahawks:  Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama

27.  Packers:  Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame (No Private visit for Smith, but the Packers list is very short for some reason, hard to gauge what they do here)

28.  Chiefs:  Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville (No visit at all, but no other names jump out at this point for the Chiefs)

29.  Cardinals:  Robert Nkemdiche, DE, Baylor

30.  Panthers:  Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech

31.  Broncos:  Connor Cook, QB, Michigan St.

[Jetsfan80]

Some notes:

* Eli Apple not being taken in the 1st would be surprising to me.  I imagine someone like Miami, Atlanta, or Jacksonville moves up from the 2nd round to grab him. Packers and Chiefs seem like good potential trade partners seeing as their 1st round plans are quite cloudy.

* The Jets need to move up, lol.  Another DL in the 1st would cause a mutiny, even if its the BPA.

* Corey Coleman had 4 different visits with the Bengals, including a private one.  Also had 3 visits with Treadwell.  They seem hell bent on a WR at their pick. 

* Leonard Floyd had 3 different visits with the Falcons, including a private one.  If he's there at 17, he has to be the pick for ATL.

* I was also surprised to see the lack of visits for guys like William Jackson III, Andrew Billings, Will Fuller, and Chris Jones.  They slip to the 2nd round per my method. 

* Su'a Cravens was listed a bunch for official visits. Wouldn't be surprised to see him go somewhere late in the 1st or at least early 2nd.

[Greenseed4]

Such a great thread. 

Finally someone gets it.  I understand not tipping your hand in the expensive round, but at the same time, that paycheck needs to be written on confidence in the player; talent, character and culture fit and scheme. 

Thats where visits/private workouts come to play.

Nicely done!!

 

[CrazyCarl40]

How many visits did the Jets have with Leonard Williams before they drafted him? I would assume not many because they didn't think he'd make it to them. This is a cool exercise, but those visits go flying out the window if someone falls to you where the talent supersedes the player.

P.S. Shaq Lawson would be a terrible Quinton Coples type pick.

[Jetsfan80]

49 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

How many visits did the Jets have with Leonard Williams before they drafted him? I would assume not many because they didn't think he'd make it to them. This is a cool exercise, but those visits go flying out the window if someone falls to you where the talent supersedes the player.

P.S. Shaq Lawson would be a terrible Quinton Coples type pick.

Of course, and I considered that.  The draft is a complete inexact science.  Everything one team does is dependent on what others are doing. 

And yeah, I wouldn't be thrilled with the Lawson pick either.  Hopefully I'm dead wrong and someone like Paxton Lynch, Laquon Treadwell, or even A'Shawn Robinson falls to us instead.  Or we move up, maybe to Tennessee's spot at 15.

[dbatesman]

51 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

How many visits did the Jets have with Leonard Williams before they drafted him? I would assume not many because they didn't think he'd make it to them.

I would assume not many since each team is only allowed 30 site visits and it would be really dumb to use more than one on a single player.

53 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

This is a cool exercise, but those visits go flying out the window if someone falls to you where the talent supersedes the player.

It's more than a cool exercise. The Jets first pick in every draft for a decade has been a site visit.

53 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

P.S. Shaq Lawson would be a terrible Quinton Coples type pick.

Lawson is one of like three pass rushers in this class whose workout numbers check out, and the only one who's not a billion years old. Getting him at 20 would be a major coup.

[derp]

8 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I would assume not many since each team is only allowed 30 site visits and it would be really dumb to use more than one on a single player.

It's more than a cool exercise. The Jets first pick in every draft for a decade has been a site visit.

Lawson is one of like three pass rushers in this class whose workout numbers check out, and the only one who's not a billion years old. Getting him at 20 would be a major coup.

All of this. I actually suspect Lawson may be the target for the Jets. Makes a lot of sense and there's been nothing leak out besides the private visit. This FO has been a great job being super tight lipped. Lawson is arguably the best player at arguably the biggest immediate need position for the Jets (who's starting aside from Mauldin right now or available in FA? I understand QB is a huge need as well but a. you could sign Fitz or Hoyer and b. a rookie QB probably isn't starting for the Jets this year) and yet there's been no smoke about their interest in him. I'm completely guessing, but I think they love him and might even move up to get him.

And for those against Lawson, he's a pass rushing OLB in the Jets' scheme. And to reiterate what dbatesman said, he's one of few guys whose workout numbers check out as an edge pass rusher. Possibly the only guy. You could theoretically take a guy who's not going to be a pass rusher, throw him across from Mauldin, and put Mauldin into the primary rusher role - but if the goal is to draft an edge rusher in this draft and have Mauldin play the SLB Coples type role, Lawson is arguably THE guy.

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

How many visits did the Jets have with Leonard Williams before they drafted him? I would assume not many because they didn't think he'd make it to them. This is a cool exercise, but those visits go flying out the window if someone falls to you where the talent supersedes the player.

P.S. Shaq Lawson would be a terrible Quinton Coples type pick.

Once. They met with him once to do due diligence despite thinking he'd never fall to #6. 

Thats why, at least for the Jets, this is a great exercise for speculation. 

[PepPep]

3 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

How many visits did the Jets have with Leonard Williams before they drafted him? I would assume not many because they didn't think he'd make it to them. This is a cool exercise, but those visits go flying out the window if someone falls to you where the talent supersedes the player.

P.S. Shaq Lawson would be a terrible Quinton Coples type pick.

I like the Lawson pick. But I think it would be tough to pass on Reed in this scenario.

Shaq Lawson is the OPPOSITE of Coples.

Coples was a slow 6'6 (around 300lb) DT projected to be a 3-4 DE. He had questions regarding his character, motor and fatigue issues. Physically, he was a beast and as strong as they come. And Rex believed he could coach him up and he would be worth the gamble.   

Lawson is 6'2 and some have argued is undersized for the NFL, even though he is a hefty 270lbs. Although he played multiple positions in college- he projects to be a 3-4 OLB in the NFL and is unlikely to be able to play 4-3 or 3-4 DE in any system. Lawson has good speed and acceleration and is known for his great motor and relentless pursuit. He is a leader type and has no character concerns.

The two are nothing alike.  

[CrazyCarl40]

21 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I like the Lawson pick. But I think it would be tough to pass on Reed in this scenario.

Shaq Lawson is the OPPOSITE of Coples.

Coples was a slow 6'6 (around 300lb) DT projected to be a 3-4 DE. He had questions regarding his character, motor and fatigue issues. Physically, he was a beast and as strong as they come. And Rex believed he could coach him up and he would be worth the gamble.   

Lawson is 6'2 and some have argued is undersized for the NFL, even though he is a hefty 270lbs. Although he played multiple positions in college- he projects to be a 3-4 OLB in the NFL and is unlikely to be able to play 4-3 or 3-4 DE in any system. Lawson has good speed and acceleration and is known for his great motor and relentless pursuit. He is a leader type and has no character concerns.

The two are nothing alike.  

What position is Lawson listed at? What position did he play in college? Would the Jets be changing his position? Hmm. That seems awfully familiar to another player the Jets used to have. Weird. 

[dbatesman]

5 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

What position is Lawson listed at? What position did he play in college? Would the Jets be changing his position? Hmm. That seems awfully familiar to another player the Jets used to have. Weird. 

This is one of the dumbest things ever posted in the draft forum, which is a pretty high bar to clear. 

[CrazyCarl40]

2 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

This is one of the dumbest things ever posted in the draft forum, which is a pretty high bar to clear. 

Why is that? I'll take that as a compliment from you. 

[dbatesman]

25 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Why is that? I'll take that as a compliment from you. 

Generally speaking it makes no sense because most college teams play a 4-3, so most rush OLBs are conversion projects. Looking for non-conversion guys lands you a slug like Courtney Upshaw, who has less than 1/3 as many career sacks as Coples, a lot more easily than it lands you a stud like Von Miller. Specifically it makes no sense because Coples and Lawson have basically nothing in common; the former is a DT who we kept moving farther from the ball, while the latter is an edge guy who we'd just be asking to stand up. More specifically it makes no sense because Lawson's workout numbers suggest he's the lowest-risk edge guy in the draft.

[CrazyCarl40]

42 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Generally speaking it makes no sense because most college teams play a 4-3, so most rush OLBs are conversion projects. Looking for non-conversion guys lands you a slug like Courtney Upshaw, who has less than 1/3 as many career sacks as Coples, a lot more easily than it lands you a stud like Von Miller. Specifically it makes no sense because Coples and Lawson have basically nothing in common; the former is a DT who we kept moving farther from the ball, while the latter is an edge guy who we'd just be asking to stand up. More specifically it makes no sense because Lawson's workout numbers suggest he's the lowest-risk edge guy in the draft.

I know it's two different positions, but it's still a learning curve and trying to fit a guy somewhere he hasn't necessarily had to learn to play before. That's all I was getting at. I said Coples like, not exactly Coples. And it seems like Lawson keeps slipping down many boards. Give me an OT that will get Breno off the team and improve the line dramatically without having to have that player learn all new techniques and grab an OLB like Jenkins in the next round or two. 

[Lupz27]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Of course, and I considered that.  The draft is a complete inexact science.  Everything one team does is dependent on what others are doing. 

And yeah, I wouldn't be thrilled with the Lawson pick either.  Hopefully I'm dead wrong and someone like Paxton Lynch, Laquon Treadwell, or even A'Shawn Robinson falls to us instead.  Or we move up, maybe to Tennessee's spot at 15.

If you have Tennessee getting Buckner at 15 why would they waste their resources in a trade for Mo Wilk?

Not much from this mock makes any sense.

[maury77]

Shaq Lawson would be a very nice get for the Jets at 20. On tape, he isn't an athletic freak, but he beats you in a number of ways and is always going 110%. Anyone who compared Lawson to Gholston has never watched Lawson play. 

Lawson's combine numbers were a little better than I expected. I think if the Jets pick him, you may see Lawson drop his weight from 270 to 260 to see if it helps his ability to move in space. 

[flgreen]

Any time you have to have a player lose a lot of weight to play a position he really hasn't played before........................Pass

 

Actually it was a good idea 80, it just didn't work

[rscarls]

Clemson alum here. Shaq Lawson is really really good. But he is a 4-3 DE...the guy weighs 285..men like that ar meant to ut their hand in the ground. Not a 3-4 OLB

[Greenseed4]

I really liked the work put into this.  And I'm a little pissed that we didn't even meet with Darren Lee before drafting him.  Mainly because this means the FO is really really good at hiding their intentions.  As a fan who is accustomed to feeding on media leaks, this is bothersome.