Trade down?

[Snell41]

6 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

It was a desperation move because they didn't get Jeb putzier. Just shows how horrible the front office was. 

A great draft trade requires one of two things-being informed, or receiving incredible value.  If you are getting equal value, then you must have the premise that you are informed of what you are actually giving up.  The Jets had no idea what they were giving up because they had no idea who might fall to them because they traded prior to the draft.  Without information the only other way a trade could be deemed great is if you get immense value in return, ie much higher value than the points chart would dictate.  Trading out of the #1 or #2 overall pick pre-draft generally results in incredible returns, even though you don't know for sure what you will get with those returns.  The payoff is you get so much in return that chances are it will trump the value you gave away simply by the odds in numbers.  The Jets had zero information, and at best received only equal value for the picks they gave up.  Therefore it was an awful trade with or without hindsight.  Hindsight only confirms it even further.     

[Snell41]

6 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

For all the talk about the 1st round and players, QB's they should take, trading down could be their best approach. This team has a lot of holes and there's no way they can fill them all with only 6 picks. But if they traded down? They could bank a lot more picks and clean up with good value throughout the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Absolutely.  And unless they receive an offer to do so today that completely blows them away in value, they should wait until their pick is on the clock to ensure no player that they have ranked higher than equal value to pick #20 falls to them.  If ther #10 ranked player fell to 20 and they had already made a trade deemed equal in value to the 20th pick then that trade is awful no matter how you slice it. 

[PatsFanTX]

For all the talk about the 1st round and players, QB's they should take, trading down could be their best approach. This team has a lot of holes and there's no way they can fill them all with only 6 picks. But if they traded down? They could bank a lot more picks and clean up with good value throughout the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

With the draft as deep and equal as it is 20-50, what team out there would want to move up to 20 so the Jets can trade down?

Every year, fans act like trading down is some sort of automatic option in the draft.

It's not.

[The Crusher]

3 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

With the draft as deep and equal as it is 20-50, what team out there would want to move up to 20 so the Jets can trade down?

Every year, fans act like trading down is some sort of automatic option in the draft.

It's not.

What do you think the chance are the Patriots trade out of the first round?

[Beerfish]

10 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

With the draft as deep and equal as it is 20-50, what team out there would want to move up to 20 so the Jets can trade down?

Every year, fans act like trading down is some sort of automatic option in the draft.

It's not.

It only takes one team to want one player that they like.  Ever year there are multi trades in the 1st round.

[PatsFanTX]

What do you think the chance are the Patriots trade out of the first round?

Doesn't matter, they have 4 picks in the top 100 in a deep draft which is more the the Jets have.

What's going to happen when the Jets blow the #20 pick (like they usually do) and have only 5 more picks in the lower rounds?

Good luck filling all the major holes on the roster.

[chirorob]

5 hours ago, nyjets782 said:

You are 100% right.  We traded the equivalent of a 2nd rounder to get him (I think we moved back more like 14 spots), but I only mentioned it because that is the last time I can remember them trading down.

Mike T traded down with the Bears to get Thomas Jones.

That was an excellent trade.

[The Crusher]

16 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

Doesn't matter, they have 4 picks in the top 100 in a deep draft which is more the the Jets have.

What's going to happen when the Jets blow the #20 pick (like they usually do) and have only 5 more picks in the lower rounds?

Good luck filling all the major holes on the roster.

Yes. First round picks are useless.

[PCP63]

1 hour ago, section314 said:

How does this logic grab everybody? We could have stayed put at #26 and taken Heath Miller.That trade was one of the dumbest things the Jets have ever done, and that's saying a lot. Heath was one of the best TE's over the last 15 years, and he would have fallen into our lap. Nobody in their right mind can justify that trade. End of discussion.

I think logic is eluding you, not us. He's not saying the results were great, he's saying that, without hindsight, the trade itself was a smart move. Instead of getting two players, we got the same two players, a vet TE that we believed was on the rise, and picks used to get a future All-Pro. 

[neckdemon]

1 hour ago, Snell41 said:

A great draft trade requires one of two things-being informed, or receiving incredible value.  If you are getting equal value, then you must have the premise that you are informed of what you are actually giving up.  The Jets had no idea what they were giving up because they had no idea who might fall to them because they traded prior to the draft.  Without information the only other way a trade could be deemed great is if you get immense value in return, ie much higher value than the points chart would dictate.  Trading out of the #1 or #2 overall pick pre-draft generally results in incredible returns, even though you don't know for sure what you will get with those returns.  The payoff is you get so much in return that chances are it will trump the value you gave away simply by the odds in numbers.  The Jets had zero information, and at best received only equal value for the picks they gave up.  Therefore it was an awful trade with or without hindsight.  Hindsight only confirms it even further.     

this is an excellent evaluation of why it was a bad trade. repped.

[neckdemon]

6 minutes ago, PCP63 said:

I think logic is eluding you, not us. He's not saying the results were great, he's saying that, without hindsight, the trade itself was a smart move. Instead of getting two players, we got the same two players, a vet TE that we believed was on the rise, and picks used to get a future All-Pro. 

except it really wasn't a smart trade at all

[PatsFanTX]

Yes. First round picks are useless.

Dee Milliner

Quentin Couples

Kyle Wilson

Mark Sanchez

Vernon Gholston

That's just going back 8 years.

What would you consider those players other than "useless"?

[Larz]

very few teams want to move up to 20.  usually the drop off from 1st round talent to 2nd round talent as between 15-25 depending on the draft

 

[neckdemon]

1 hour ago, PatsFanTX said:

With the draft as deep and equal as it is 20-50, what team out there would want to move up to 20 so the Jets can trade down?

Every year, fans act like trading down is some sort of automatic option in the draft.

It's not.

its an option when you are willing to drop down 20 spots so the raiders can unload a piece of sh*t like jolley to you. seriously....the jets got fleeced by the ******* raiders......thats go to be an all time low. never mind they took a kicker wit the pick they got. the franchise was in the hands of a bunch of clowns

[neckdemon]

3 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

Dee Milliner

 

Quentin Couples

 

Kyle Wilson

 

Mark Sanchez

 

Vernon Gholston

 

That's just going back 8 years.

 

What would you consider those players other than "useless"?

if you ask nyjunk he'll tell you that sanchez was jets best qb since namath and that the jets are fools to have let him get away. 

[PatsFanTX]

its an option when you are willing to drop down 20 spots so the raiders can unload a piece of sh*t like jolley to you. seriously....the jets got fleeced by the ******* raiders......thats go to be an all time low. never mind they took a kicker wit the pick they got. the franchise was in the hands of a bunch of clowns

Damn necky, your last 2 posts were awesome.

[neckdemon]

5 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

Damn necky, your last 2 posts were awesome.

i'm a die hard jets fan....but i'm not a homer. i am fully aware that the team has been pretty bad for a majority of the time. just gotta keep hoping that it will turn around. i'm not under any delusion that barely making the playoffs, and then getting to the championship only to look like garbage, is success.

[TuscanyTile2]

21 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

its an option when you are willing to drop down 20 spots so the raiders can unload a piece of sh*t like jolley to you. seriously....the jets got fleeced by the ******* raiders......thats go to be an all time low. never mind they took a kicker wit the pick they got. the franchise was in the hands of a bunch of clowns

And not even a good kicker.  IIRC "The Nuge" only stayed on a few (undistinguished) years.

[TuscanyTile2]

26 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

Dee Milliner

 

Quentin Couples

 

Kyle Wilson

 

Mark Sanchez

 

Vernon Gholston

 

That's just going back 8 years.

 

What would you consider those players other than "useless"?

They were far worse than useless.  They cost us games.

[section314]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

It only takes one team to want one player that they like.  Ever year there are multi trades in the 1st round.

Absolutely. The Rams traded 2 years of drafts to get Rick Mirer, I mean Goff.

[The Crusher]

42 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

Dee Milliner

 

Quentin Couples

 

Kyle Wilson

 

Mark Sanchez

 

Vernon Gholston

 

That's just going back 8 years.

 

What would you consider those players other than "useless"?

Damn. We are do.

[flgreen]

29 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

And not even a good kicker.  IIRC "The Nuge" only stayed on a few (undistinguished) years.

Well, the guy is still in the league.  if I'm not mistake he kicked a 58 yard FG in a playoff game last season.

We'll probably see him the first game of the year in Sept.

[TuscanyTile2]

2 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Well, the guy is still in the league.  if I'm not mistake he kicked a 58 yard FG in a playoff game last season.

We'll probbly see him the first game of the year in Sept.

Only 4 seasons for us.  I looked it up though and you are correct about the 58 yd FG in last year's playoffs.

I found this article on him though:

 

 

http://stripehype.com/2016/01/23/cincinnati-bengals-time-to-move-on-from-mike-nugent/

Mike Nugent has been a somewhat-reliable kicker for the Bengals, but his inopportune misses have us wondering whether it’s time for Cincinnati to find a new kicker.

Mike Nugent has been a much more reliable kicker than Bengals fans give him credit for, but his inopportune misses still shouldn’t be taken lightly. In this piece, we will take a look at the pro’s and con’s of retaining Nugent as a kicker and determine whether or not he should remain Cincinnati’s long-term option as a kicker.

First, let’s take a look at the positives. On kicks under 30 yards, Nugent has been automatic, drilling all 38 of his attempts from 2010-2015. Whether he’s playing in sun or snow, Nugent is extremely accurate from short-distance.

But since the Bengals are one of the NFL’s best red zone teams, is it really important to have a kicker who specializes in drilling short kicks? Some could argue that it is, as it’s almost a guarantee that the Bengals will score every time they enter the red zone, as long as they don’t turn the ball over. Others will argue that having a kicker who can drill nine of 10 short kicks and be more reliable at a distance is more valuable. With that, let’s take a look at Nugent’s weaknesses.

Nugent’s weakness starts with the fact that he’s 33 years old and was the 23rd-most accurate kicker in 2015. He was the least accurate kicker in the AFC North and has serious issues when it comes to kicking long field goals. Over the past two seasons, Nugent is just two-for-six on field goals of at least 50 yards. Steven Hauschka alone went six-for-six on field goals over 50 yards this season.

In 2015, exactly half of the NFL’s kickers attempted at least five field goals of at least 50 yards, and only two of those 16 kickers missed more than half of their attempts of 50+ yards. It’s pretty clear that acquiring a kicker who can kick long field goals would be incredibly beneficial for Cincinnati, especially given that the Bengals punted from kickable distances several times in 2015.

It’s not like 2015 was just a down year for Nugent, either. In 2014, he was the league’s 27th-most accurate kicker. Nugent notably missed an overtime chip-shot kick that would’ve broken a tie against the Carolina Panthers which would’ve made Bengals an 11-win team rather than a 10-win team.

Nugent isn’t good on kickoffs, either. Only 42 of his 88 kickoffs went for touchbacks this season, and opposing teams averaged 22.63 yards per kickoff return. And there’s this:

This season’s rookie class doesn’t look too promising when it comes to kickers, but players like Justin Tucker, Josh Brown, Greg Zuerlein and Adam Vinatieri are all free agents.

In signing one of these players, the Bengals would be doing themselves a huge favor. It’s time to move on from Mike Nugent.

 

[nyjbuddy]

If there isn't any obvious choice at 20 (a player slipping out of the top 10/15) and the Jets don't go for WR, perhaps trade back with the Bengals?  Gives them first crack at the wide receivers, jumping ahead of the Redskins, Texans and Vikings.  All are looking for wide receiver and defensive line help which should not take a player that the Jets could be targeting at 20.  

Jets 1st (20) and 4th (118) for the Bengals 1st (24), 3rd (87) and 6th (119).  

[Snell41]

this is an excellent evaluation of why it was a bad trade. repped.

Thank you. It's funny how@nyjunc disappeared the moment he was faced with reality.

[detectivekimble]

8 hours ago, nyjunc said:

ok, you would have been happier w/:

 

1. Justin Miller

2. Mike Nugent

no Jolley and no Kerry Rhodes.

 

Maybe you should be our next GM?

 

please don't forget Jplley was considered an ascending pass catching TE and our TE the year before had 100 rec yds while starting all 16 games but yeah we got fleeced.

Jolley had less yards in his last year with the Raiders than he did his rookie year.  That's descending, not ascending.  

Justin Miller was a KR who could not play CB.  Mike Nugent was a ******* kicker.

The Jets didn't trade down just a few spots.  They traded down 21 spots.  You don't trade out of the first round and into the middle of the second round for Doug ******* Jolley.  Terrell Owens was traded from SF the year before for the 51st overall pick.  Brandon Marshall was recently acquired for a 5th rounder.  No. 26 for the No. 47 and Doug Jolley is a fleecing.

[nyjunc]

12 hours ago, Snell41 said:

Thank you. It's funny how@nyjunc disappeared the moment he was faced with reality.

I disappeared?  that's interesting.

7 hours ago, detectivekimble said:

Jolley had less yards in his last year with the Raiders than he did his rookie year.  That's descending, not ascending.  

Justin Miller was a KR who could not play CB.  Mike Nugent was a ******* kicker.

The Jets didn't trade down just a few spots.  They traded down 21 spots.  You don't trade out of the first round and into the middle of the second round for Doug ******* Jolley.  Terrell Owens was traded from SF the year before for the 51st overall pick.  Brandon Marshall was recently acquired for a 5th rounder.  No. 26 for the No. 47 and Doug Jolley is a fleecing.

but he had more yards his 3rd year in oak than his 2nd, that's ascending, right? and you do recall in 2002 he had MVP Rich Gannon as his QB, right? in 2003 is when oak began to crumble, Gannon's career basically ended and the long streak of futility began.  his QBs in 2003:

Rick Mire 8 games

Gannon 7 games

Marques Tuiasasopo

 

there are things you need to dig into rather than just looking at stats w/o context.

 

Justin Miller was a highly rated corner coming out of college who was expected to go 1st round, it's easy to look back and say he wasn't a corner but that wasn't the reality at the time.  Nugent was a K, was expectec he may go round 1 like janikowski did a few years earlier.  Disagree and bash the picks themselves all you want just not the trade.

 

Each situation is different, you have to factor salary, cap, disruption to the locker room.  this is why certain major talents go for what appears to be cheap.

 

 

 

[nyjunc]

15 hours ago, Snell41 said:

And the point goes right over your head.  Every single year, guys fall in the draft.  Every year.  No team's draft board falls off in the perfect order that they have it marked.  With the exception of maybe the top 5 players, just about every team will find a player they had ranked HIGHER than the pick they draft in will likely be there.  For that reason alone, you do not trade down from your spot until your pick is on the board.  What players did or did not fall that year is irrelevant to the conversation.  At best the Jets got equal value in points for trading down prior to draft day.  That and that alone makes it a horrible trade.  You always wait to see what players are available to you before you give up your pick and trade back unless you are getting far greater value in return.  Always. 

but they didn't, right?  we can play hypothetical in your lala land or we can discuss reality.

[nyjunc]

13 hours ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

Dee Milliner

 

Quentin Couples

 

Kyle Wilson

 

Mark Sanchez

 

Vernon Gholston

 

That's just going back 8 years.

 

What would you consider those players other than "useless"?

Sanchez was a QB of 2 title game teams and a guy who outplayed the best QB probably ever on the road in Foxboro in the div round.  he doesn't belong w/ those other guys.

[jamesr]

2 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

I disappeared?  that's interesting.

but he had more yards his 3rd year in oak than his 2nd, that's ascending, right? and you do recall in 2002 he had MVP Rich Gannon as his QB, right? in 2003 is when oak began to crumble, Gannon's career basically ended and the long streak of futility began.  his QBs in 2003:

Rick Mire 8 games

Gannon 7 games

Marques Tuiasasopo

 

there are things you need to dig into rather than just looking at stats w/o context.

 

Justin Miller was a highly rated corner coming out of college who was expected to go 1st round, it's easy to look back and say he wasn't a corner but that wasn't the reality at the time.  Nugent was a K, was expectec he may go round 1 like janikowski did a few years earlier.  Disagree and bash the picks themselves all you want just not the trade.

 

Each situation is different, you have to factor salary, cap, disruption to the locker room.  this is why certain major talents go for what appears to be cheap.

 

 

 

So if Miller was expected to go first round, and the Jets loved him and targeted him ... why did they trade completely out of the first round, several days before the draft???

You're story is making less sense as time goes on.

 

[Irish Jet]

Anyone who didn't realise the Jets 2004 NFL Draft was an absolute f*cking disaster has to be trolling. It was pretty obvious the second they gave up their first rounder where it was going. Heath Miller. Traded for Doug Jolley and Mike f*cking Nugent. 

 

[PatsFanTX]

Sanchez was a QB of 2 title game teams and a guy who outplayed the best QB probably ever on the road in Foxboro in the div round.  he doesn't belong w/ those other guys.

Come on.

Sanchez was a top 10 draft pick.

If he was half as good as you claim, he'd still be the starting QB for the NYJ's.

BTW, he was just along for the ride in those playoff games.

[Rangers9]

Mark Sanchez was along for the ride but he had a couple of good games. And a lot of really bad ones. He is just capable of being a game manager and that's only with a limited playbook. There is talent there but not from the neck up. 

[nyjunc]

34 minutes ago, jamesr said:

So if Miller was expected to go first round, and the Jets loved him and targeted him ... why did they trade completely out of the first round, several days before the draft???

You're story is making less sense as time goes on.

 

you don't understand anything about this process.  

[Snell41]

but they didn't, right?  we can play hypothetical in your lala land or we can discuss reality.

And yet you completely skirt around the point again.