We had a pretty good haul this draft. Not great but good. My grades.

[Jetsfan80]

I think people are freaking out about this draft class, one way or the other.  No, this didn't seem to be a pure BPA type of draft.  And that's OK.  It doesn't have to be.  You have to add talent that fits what you're trying to do, and that's what Macc did this year.  But these picks were neither amazing nor terrible, despite how polarizing the thread titles read on JN this morning.   We took a lot of smart, high character, and athletic guys in this draft class.  Nothing wrong with that!

Here are my grades:

 

1.20:  Darron Lee, LB, Ohio St.

Let's face it.  Laquon Treadwell would have been a fun pick.  His value was perfect at that spot (especially considering Minnesota snagged him 3 picks later), and he was a guy we brought in for a private visit.  Had we grabbed him, it would have been a signal that we loved what we saw. 

But Lee makes a ton of sense nonetheless.  The Jets are attempting to ride the wave of seemingly "undersized" LB's who have sideline to sideline speed.  And Lee is an exceptional athlete to boot.  We will never ask him to try to win battles at the point of attack, but we WILL ask him to make plays all over the field, particularly on 3rd down, where we have had so much difficulty, and not just under Todd Bowles.

I also don't agree that comparable players were available later.  Yes, we could have taken Su'a Cravens at 51 (he went 53 to Washington).  But Cravens is already being listed as a safety on the Redskins' depth chart.  He's not the same kind of player as Lee.  Lee is a first round talent and we took him where he was valued.  Thus, while it was hard to get excited about an "unsexy" pick in the first, it's also hard to kill the pick either.

GRADE:  B

 

2.51:  Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn St.

The evaluation of this pick comes down to one, simple argument that is somewhat circular in nature:  You never know with QB's, and thus you have to trust that the guy making the decision to invest in one made the right call.  Macc evidently had Hackenberg listed as his 2nd favorite QB behind Goff.  So he went and got his guy.  He put his name on this pick, and made a bold decision.  We say we want our GM to take QB's until we find one, then criticize him for taking the "wrong one".  That's the nature of the NFL, guys.  Unless you tank or trade up with a king's ransom worth of picks, you always run a high risk of taking the "wrong one".

So my grade here is a reflection not of what Hackenberg is or is not capable of, though all reports suggest he's a bright kid with a high ceiling (and a low floor), nor even the "value" of the pick (if we could have guaranteed he'd have been available in the 3rd round, for instance, this would be a reach.  But we do not have any way of knowing that).  My grade is a reflection of our front office taking the information at hand and making a call to get a signal caller.  We now have Hackenberg and Petty as the future of this franchise, and the clock is now ticking on Macc and Bowles as a result:  Make it work with these young QB's or their time will be over.

Grade: A

 

3.83:  Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia

More athleticism comes to the Jets at the LB corps with the addition of Jenkins, who will play along the edge.  This was Macc's best pick of the draft when it comes to value, and it also met a huge need for the Jets, much like each of the first 2 picks.  The reason Jenkins was not a pick in the first couple of rounds is that he's more like a Calvin Pace than he'll ever be like a Von Miller.  It's no fun being unable to get a sack machine on the roster, but that cannot be used to knock this pick.  Jenkins was consistent at Georgia, more athletic than many realize, and should be a solid pro.  If you can get a potential solid starter in the 3rd round, you've made a great pick. 

Grade:  A

 

4.118:  Juston Burris, CB, NC State

Burris wasn't an interception machine in school, but what he was actually was more impressive:  He was a guy people avoided.  Burris was only targeted 44 times last year, and his completion % against was a low 34 %.  Granted, this was not against SEC competition, which has to be taken into account.  But finding a guy with ideal size (6', 212 lbs) and a nice body of work in the 4th round is a pretty good get here.  Burris also does not seem to be a reach, as most sources had him valued around this range.  Again, not a guy that blows anyone away, but simply a solid pick.

Grade:  B+

5.158:  Brandon Shell, OT, South Carolina

Finally the Jets were able to add some O-Line help in this draft.  To do so they had to give up future draft capital, which hurts the grade on this pick slightly.  Clearly the Jets love the kid or they would not have made this move, though it also could have been a "need" pick they felt had to happen.  In either instance we'll have to "wait and see" on this one.  If Shell does not end up Breno Giacomini's eventual replacement at RT or at least a solid backup, it will end up being a high risk, low reward pick.

Grade:  C+

 

7.235:  Loc Edwards, P, Sam Houston St.

Ryan Quigley is gone, and with a pair of 7th rounders to play with, the Jets made sure to grab the top candidate to be his replacement before waiting for the UDFA pool to materialize.  Kudos for the pick!

Grade:  A

 

7.241:  Charone Peak, WR, Clemson

A Scotty McKnight, Peak is not.  At 6-2, 209 lbs and with great speed, the Jets are very clear about what they look for out of WR's these days.  And that's good to see.  Peak is well worth the flyer despite his knee injuries, and will add some needed depth to an aging WR corps. 

Grade:  A

 

OVERALL 2016 DRAFT GRADE:  B+

[jdeacon]

Anyone who is not excited about the overhaul of our LB corps this offseason is just butt hurt over not getting "their" guy in the draft. We injected speed ( Lee and Carter) along with youth (Jenkins and Mauldin last year). The patriots ruin us by using the middle of the field to turn 3 yard passes into 15 yard gain. We should have the speed to combat that finally. 

[dbatesman]

29 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

2.51:  Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn St.

The evaluation of this pick comes down to one, simple argument that is somewhat circular in nature:  You never know with QB's, and thus you have to trust that the guy making the decision to invest in one made the right call.  Macc evidently had Hackenberg listed as his 2nd favorite QB behind Goff.  So he went and got his guy.  He put his name on this pick, and made a bold decision.  We say we want our GM to take QB's until we find one, then criticize him for taking the "wrong one".  That's the nature of the NFL, guys.  Unless you tank or trade up with a king's ransom worth of picks, you always run a high risk of taking the "wrong one".

Of course you do. But some guys are likelier than others to be the "wrong one," and a guy who has horrible stats and horrible film is pretty much the archetype. Say this pick was a wideout who dropped half the passes thrown his way, or a safety who ran a 4.9, or a guard who only managed 5 reps on the bench. Still giving it an A?

[BowlesMovement]

1 minute ago, dbatesman said:

Of course you do. But some guys are likelier than others to be the "wrong one," and a guy who has horrible stats and horrible film is pretty much the archetype. Picture yourself giving this pick an A if it was a wideout who dropped half the passes thrown his way, or a safety who ran a 4.9, or a guard who only managed 5 reps on the bench

Who did you want, Lynch?

[Integrity28]

20 minutes ago, jdeacon said:

Anyone who is not excited about the overhaul of our LB corps this offseason is just butt hurt over not getting "their" guy in the draft. We injected speed ( Lee and Carter) along with youth (Jenkins and Mauldin last year). The patriots ruin us by using the middle of the field to turn 3 yard passes into 15 yard gain. We should have the speed to combat that finally. 

I can't help but wonder if the improved LB corps will finally help the DL realize its potential. Meaning, no more of this nonsense where they get penetration but they can still be blocked long enough for QBs to pick us apart. This defense might finally have the speed to kill drives the way the Denver D did through the playoffs (not saying they are same level, just using as example).

 

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Of course you do. But some guys are likelier than others to be the "wrong one," and a guy who has horrible stats and horrible film is pretty much the archetype. Say this pick was a wideout who dropped half the passes thrown his way, or a safety who ran a 4.9, or a guard who only managed 5 reps on the bench. Still giving it an A?

Nope.  But QB, as we know, is the most complex position in the NFL.  Macc and his scouts did all the research and saw exactly what you see on the tape.  Apparently they decided he has something that the tape doesn't show.  If the pick fails, it becomes another Geno-esque selection, and Macc and company will likely have to go.  But the pick gets an A for now until that becomes the case, because at least they got "their guy", and are making an effort at QB.  They're not pushing the QB problem back every year like our previous regimes did. 

[Adoni Beast]

The fact that the Jets had a chance at Lynch and passed proves to me that they actually had Hackenberg rated where he was picked. If they were going to reach for a QB they had the media frienndlier pick in Lynch and passed. They knew they'd get filet'd in the press with Hackenberg pick and picked anyway, which again leads me to believe they truet their evaluation and didn't feel they reached at all.

[section314]

If you are right on Hackenberg, this draft will be historic. We'll see.

[dbatesman]

6 minutes ago, BowlesMovement said:

Who did you want, Lynch?

The only QB I really liked in this draft was Goff. Barring that, I wouldn't have taken anyone in the first or second. In the third or later, I would have been happy with literally anyone other than Hackenberg or Cook. If you want a specific name, I like Kevin Hogan a lot, especially where the Chiefs got him.

[Mainejet]

Lee is an F pick. This guy is miscast with this defense. He'll never be a big contributor for this defense. Apparently, Mac and Bowles have never read their Jets history books because this team has been down that road in the past.

The Burris is not so much a bad pick because of the player, but because of what position he plays. The Jets NEEDED a TE in this draft. It was an absolute must to get better and beat cover 2 formations. There were a few decent TE's available in this draft that Mac skipped over. That is a huge mistake. I personally love the Hackenberg and the punter pick.

[dbatesman]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nope.  But QB, as we know, is the most complex position in the NFL.  Macc and his scouts did all the research and saw exactly what you see on the tape.  Apparently they decided he has something that the tape doesn't show.  If the pick fails, it becomes another Geno-esque selection, and Macc and company will likely have to go.  But the pick gets an A for now until that becomes the case, because at least they got "their guy", and are making an effort at QB.  They're not pushing the QB problem back every year like our previous regimes did. 

So we basically just give the FO an A for picking a quarterback, regardless of considerations of stats, film, value, or opportunity cost? How far does this go? What if Hackenberg had completed 40% of his passes last year, but was still Maccagnan's "guy"? What if his "guy" was Nate Sudfeld, and he spent 51 on him instead?

[Warfish]

A good, solid needs-based draft.

Only real question is the QB choice.

 

[LIJetsFan]

Nice upbeat assessment OP.  I think your take on Hack is the one we all should embrace.  Mac got his guy so let's give this time to play out w/o all the vitriol.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

So we basically just give the FO an A for picking a quarterback, regardless of considerations of stats, film, value, or opportunity cost? How far does this go? What if Hackenberg had completed 40% of his passes last year, but was still Maccagnan's "guy"? What if his "guy" was Nate Sudfeld, and he spent 51 on him instead?

If he had completely reached and taken Kevin Hogan in the 2nd, sure, that pick would get a weak grade, because he was a late round project.  But Hackenberg, by most accounts, was valued in that 2nd-3rd round range.  And all along Macc has consistently appeared to have Hackenberg as his # 2 QB, ahead of Lynch.  We can't really say that pick was a reach based on what we know, can we?

So yes, I'd have given Macc an A for taking any QB properly valued. 

[dbatesman]

32 minutes ago, jdeacon said:

Anyone who is not excited about the overhaul of our LB corps this offseason is just butt hurt over not getting "their" guy in the draft. We injected speed ( Lee and Carter) along with youth (Jenkins and Mauldin last year). The patriots ruin us by using the middle of the field to turn 3 yard passes into 15 yard gain. We should have the speed to combat that finally. 

Agreed on this. The Hackenberg pick has really soured me on this draft, and this FO in general, but Maccagnan deserves credit for rebuilding the entire LB group into a unit that can compete in the modern NFL, on the cheap, in two offseasons.

[BowlesMovement]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nope.  But QB, as we know, is the most complex position in the NFL.  Macc and his scouts did all the research and saw exactly what you see on the tape.  Apparently they decided he has something that the tape doesn't show.  If the pick fails, it becomes another Geno-esque selection, and Macc and company will likely have to go.  But the pick gets an A for now until that becomes the case, because at least they got "their guy", and are making an effort at QB.  They're not pushing the QB problem back every year like our previous regimes did. 

I have seen a few people say this (bold), and I just don't get it. Draft picks fail all the time, if a late 2nd round draft pick fails, why does this mean Macc has to go?

I don't think Idzik went because of Geno, he went because he proved to be completely incompetent at pretty much every level of NFL GM'ing, not because of Geno.

Even the best GM's have drat picks that don't work out all the time. QB is by far the hardest position to fill, I think when you do what the Rams or Eagles do, and it doesn't work out, you have to go, but a late 2nd? Not sure I agree, but I do agree with pretty much everything else you are saying.

[dbatesman]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If he had completely reached and taken Kevin Hogan in the 2nd, sure, that pick would get a weak grade, because he was a late round project.  But Hackenberg, by most accounts, was valued in that 2nd-3rd round range.  And all along Macc has consistently appeared to have Hackenberg as his # 2 QB, ahead of Lynch.  We can't really say that pick was a reach based on what we know, can we?

So yes, I'd have given Macc an A for taking any QB properly valued. 

I guess I'm trying to understand the thinking here. Like everyone else, I'm starved for a QB prospect that can give me even a modicum of hope in the future of this franchise. But I just can't make this fit. As far as I know, there's no precedent for a guy with Hackenberg's profile succeeding in the league. For him to hit, it would mean that 1.) everything we know about quarterback evals is wrong, and 2.) the Jets of all teams were the first to crack the code. What are the odds of one of those things being true, let alone both?

[JustInFudge]

I think draft grades is literally one of the stupidest exercises you can ever be a part of, so it doesnt surprise 80 decided to share his "grades".  Grading a draft before anyone takes the field is impossible.  The "grades" are strictly based off what one ass hat "expert" had some player mocked and if said player falls, then it's a steal and they get an A blah blah blah...giving 6th and 7th round picks, "A" grades.  WTF???  They're lucky to ever see the field, other than the punter.

This was a needs filled draft, the whole way.  ILB, QB, OLB, CB, OL, Punter, WR - literally, the list of needs for this team.  Because of that, they reached.  Bottom line.  It's all about value and they reached for their guys that filled a need.  And that's cool, as long as you hit.  

 

[dbatesman]

5 minutes ago, BowlesMovement said:

I don't think Idzik went because of Geno, he went because he proved to be completely incompetent at pretty much every level of NFL GM'ing, not because of Geno.

Indirectly he did. He took Geno and then passed on Bridgewater and Carr the next year, even though Geno had shown nothing whatsoever to indicate he was a franchise player. If Hackenberg really is Maccagnan's "guy," like all of you keep saying, it's pretty easy to see history repeating itself, especially considering Hackenberg likely won't get the chance to sh*t his pants this year and force the issue the way Geno did in 2013.

[Colgateman]

I love all of our picks.

peake is gonna be a stud, he said he modeled his game after Brandon Marshalls and is really eager to learn under him, he's gonna be our Marques colston

[RutgersJetFan]

4 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Indirectly he did. He took Geno and then passed on Bridgewater and Carr the next year, even though Geno had shown nothing whatsoever to indicate he was a franchise player. If Hackenberg really is Maccagnan's "guy," like all of you keep saying, it's pretty easy to see history repeating itself, especially considering Hackenberg likely won't get the chance to sh*t his pants this year and force the issue the way Geno did in 2013.

This is why I kind of see the pick as a win. I get all the stuff about grades, measurables...etc. But this is the guy that he really wanted and the Jets didn't make a big secret about that. At best, we get a quarterback. At worst, we'll know Maccagnan isn't the guy to find us a quarterback.

Also worth noting that I'm sure Woody ****s it all up regardless of either guy, so we got that going for us.

[Joe Jets fan]

13 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I guess I'm trying to understand the thinking here. Like everyone else, I'm starved for a QB prospect that can give me even a modicum of hope in the future of this franchise. But I just can't make this fit. As far as I know, there's no precedent for a guy with Hackenberg's profile succeeding in the league. For him to hit, it would mean that 1.) everything we know about quarterback evals is wrong, and 2.) the Jets of all teams were the first to crack the code. What are the odds of one of those things being true, let alone both?

What is your eval of Hackenberg's freshman year? 

[Jetsfan80]

29 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I guess I'm trying to understand the thinking here. Like everyone else, I'm starved for a QB prospect that can give me even a modicum of hope in the future of this franchise. But I just can't make this fit. As far as I know, there's no precedent for a guy with Hackenberg's profile succeeding in the league. For him to hit, it would mean that 1.) everything we know about quarterback evals is wrong, and 2.) the Jets of all teams were the first to crack the code. What are the odds of one of those things being true, let alone both?

I have strong doubts about Hackenberg, of this we're in agreement.  But since the Jets graded him highly, and QB tends to be such an unpredictable position, we kind of have to trust the evaluation for now and see what happens.  I guess my grade should have been "undetermined/incomplete", but that would have been an easy cop out.

[Jetsfan80]

32 minutes ago, JiF said:

I think draft grades is literally one of the stupidest exercises you can ever be a part of, so it doesnt surprise 80 decided to share his "grades".  Grading a draft before anyone takes the field is impossible.

 

This is a message board.  Some people liked the picks and some hated them.  That's what the entire Jets forum looks like right now:  People yelling about whether they liked or hated the picks.  What's wrong with adding a grade to them?  So far this thread has had some pretty productive debates already.  So I did something right. 

[Integrity28]

51 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Agreed on this. The Hackenberg pick has really soured me on this draft, and this FO in general, but Maccagnan deserves credit for rebuilding the entire LB group into a unit that can compete in the modern NFL, on the cheap, in two offseasons.

For the sake of comparison, Mangini got rid of Vilma because he needed a 3-4 ILB to take his place... and never found one, in 3 years. 

[jetrider]

46 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If he had completely reached and taken Kevin Hogan in the 2nd, sure, that pick would get a weak grade, because he was a late round project.  But Hackenberg, by most accounts, was valued in that 2nd-3rd round range.  And all along Macc has consistently appeared to have Hackenberg as his # 2 QB, ahead of Lynch.  We can't really say that pick was a reach based on what we know, can we?

So yes, I'd have given Macc an A for taking any QB properly valued. 

As a complete QB or as a cost-effective QB solution? Jets passed on Lynch and took a LB, not Hackenberg.

They were hellbent on a LB as their top priority. That's the only translation. 

If Lynch and Hackenberg were both on the board at #51 and they chose Hack, you'd have a point.

The reality is Jets risked losing both QBs by taking Lee. We lucked out.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

So we basically just give the FO an A for picking a quarterback, regardless of considerations of stats, film, value, or opportunity cost? How far does this go? What if Hackenberg had completed 40% of his passes last year, but was still Maccagnan's "guy"? What if his "guy" was Nate Sudfeld, and he spent 51 on him instead?

Same logic would apply to giving Jamarcus Russell $10 mil per. Everything but the tools is awful, but hey, there's a chance. 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, jetrider said:

As a complete QB or as a cost-effective QB solution? Jets passed on Lynch and took a LB, not Hackenberg.

They were hellbent on a LB as their top priority. That's the only translation. 

If Lynch and Hackenberg were both on the board at #51 and they chose Hack, you'd have a point.

The reality is Jets risked losing both QBs by taking Lee. We lucked out.

No, it is possible to like a QB more than another and still take one later.  We valued Hackenberg higher, but knew we could likely afford to wait until Round 2 to get him, because the rest of the league rated him lower than us.  If Lynch and Hackenberg were both sitting there at 51, I think the Jets would have still taken Hackenberg.

[T0mShane]

I like the write-up, JF80, other than the rationale for Hack. If you're saying it's a coin-flip pick, it's hard up justify giving it an A, especially when everything else suggests it's less than 50/50 that Hack doesn't embarrass himself.

 

I didn't love the Lee pick, but Lee+Jenkins instantly makes the LB corps 100% faster than it was last year, and I'm of the belief that LB speed was the only thing holding the D back from being a top 3-5 unit. Burris I could care less about, and Shell can't be worse than Giacomini. All in all, I'm most excited about the two punters. 

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

I think draft grades is literally one of the stupidest exercises you can ever be a part of, so it doesnt surprise 80 decided to share his "grades".  Grading a draft before anyone takes the field is impossible.  The "grades" are strictly based off what one ass hat "expert" had some player mocked and if said player falls, then it's a steal and they get an A blah blah blah...giving 6th and 7th round picks, "A" grades.  WTF???  They're lucky to ever see the field, other than the punter.

This was a needs filled draft, the whole way.  ILB, QB, OLB, CB, OL, Punter, WR - literally, the list of needs for this team.  Because of that, they reached.  Bottom line.  It's all about value and they reached for their guys that filled a need.  And that's cool, as long as you hit.  

 

Who did they "reach" for?

[dbatesman]

1 hour ago, Joe Jets fan said:

What is your eval of Hackenberg's freshman year? 

That it happened three years ago.

[The Crusher]

Just now, dbatesman said:

That it happened three years ago.

I wonder if he was actually damaged (regressed) or simply got no better than he was when he started.  I do think he must sit for awhile before we play him here. 

[oc_jet]

Finally the Jets are run by people who have a coherent plan and have the balls and strategy to execute their plan. Yes, this was a needs draft, considering that we had so few draft picks available. That said, they did take the best available players THAT FIT the teams's schemes. My thoughts:

• Lee works as he should fit perfectly in a big nickel defense, which BTW, is what we really run. Not the old school 3-4. Just look at the Cardinals defense and you will see why they wanted this kid.
• Lee and jenkins, plus mauldin and carter add so much more speed. This will allow us to have all three phases of our D be strong. No weak areas means more pressure on the QB and more 3 and outs.
• Like most of you, I had no real idea who Hackenberg was until we drafted him. But since, I have done some digging and now understand completely why they liked and drafted him.
• He is very bright kid and an extremely quick study. Watch the Gruden tape carefully. You will see it. He has an impressive grasp of offenses and defensive formations in his head and call pull them up at will.
• He mastered the Patriots pro-style offense at 18 and ran it successfully. He learned how to read defenses at the LOS and audible at 18. His comments about being able to predict the Patriots plays after being taught by OBrien were telling to me.
• He is a former college QB and coaches son. All he has ever wanted to do was become a pro QB. This guy was born for this job.
• As a QB, he has faced more adversity in the last two years as a 19/20 year old than others a lot older than him. Think how Bradford would have handled being at Penn State. He should have skin thick enough to deal with all that goes with being the QB of the NYJ.
• Gruden called him out about his footwork and explained why it caused him to miss so many throws. Basically, the idiot coach at PSU, Franklin, ruined him by constantly changing his fundamentally sound footwork. He also squeezed a square peg into a round hole by making Hackenberg dumb down his skills to run a rudimentary offense and by taking away his ability to audible plays at the LOS.
• Playing with arguably the worst OL ever, also did him no justice. How was it possible to allow a sack  to a 2 man front when you have 5 guys to block. Both guards were converted D lineman...SMH...
• I totally agree on Jenkins and Burriss.  Sounds like very good football players with tons of talent. These guys will make an immediate impact and will play strong roles in the next 3-5 years of this team.
• Shell sounds like he has good experience and decent potential. He just needs to clean up his technique and we might have a diamond in the rough.
• Going from no punter to two strong, talented guys is amazing. Lach can punt a ball 80 yards, while the Hackett can consistently drop it wherever he wants. Plus his running rugby style buys the specials unit extra seconds to get down field.
• Lastly, Peake, is a steal. he fits exactly what this team needs. Size and speed, with real talent. The understudy to Martavis Bryant, Sammie Watkins and Hopkins. Even if his baby hands and bad knees make him half of what those guys became, he will be great for 7th round pick.

I say all that to say, this should turn out to be very good draft for the NYJ. We filled a lot of needs with solid, talented players which fit what we do.

[afosomf]

34 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I like the write-up, JF80, other than the rationale for Hack. If you're saying it's a coin-flip pick, it's hard up justify giving it an A, especially when everything else suggests it's less than 50/50 that Hack doesn't embarrass himself.

 

I didn't love the Lee pick, but Lee+Jenkins instantly makes the LB corps 100% faster than it was last year, and I'm of the belief that LB speed was the only thing holding the D back from being a top 3-5 unit. Burris I could care less about, and Shell can't be worse than Giacomini. All in all, I'm most excited about the two punters. 

watch the bama OSU game I posted in Lee thread,  he was terrible in run defense, If saban would have just pounded Henry Bama wins game easily. this should have been a 2nd rd pick at best

[BowlesMovement]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

I guess I'm trying to understand the thinking here. Like everyone else, I'm starved for a QB prospect that can give me even a modicum of hope in the future of this franchise. But I just can't make this fit. As far as I know, there's no precedent for a guy with Hackenberg's profile succeeding in the league. For him to hit, it would mean that 1.) everything we know about quarterback evals is wrong, and 2.) the Jets of all teams were the first to crack the code. What are the odds of one of those things being true, let alone both?

As hard as it has been to hit on a QB historically, its getting harder and harder every year, and that is going to continue unless the NFL starts embracing the spread offense. The majority of top colleges these days are running a spread, and the reality is that very few spread QB's have ever really hit in the NFL, so if you want a QB, your going to have to buck some trend sooner or later, or just luck your ass off. I don't thinks is about cracking any code, few guys have the physical traits that Hackenberg have, and as much as the haters like yourself want to throw cute little weapinzzzz comments out, external factors can and do impact QB's. And obviously this pick tells you that Mac and his staff buy into those external factors impacting him, and there is a chance he can be good. Time will tell, but I still don't think a late 2nd is that big of a risk to take on a guy with a ton of upside.

I see this as truncated downside risk, with a high ceiling, even if it is a very low probability of a high ceiling. As for a precedent for a guy with Hackenbergs profile succeeding, well, it all depends on if you want to consider all the factors that are involved, Penn State issues, HC left, new offense, horrible O line, bad offensive coaches. How many big time QB prospects have that as a part of their profile?