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Too Late for Jets About-Face on Fitz?


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3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

For all the complaining about who he signed he took a team from 4 wins to 10.  

Now its an issue and we didnt need to sign those players.  

Yes.  We got 10 wins because of Fitz and Fitz alone.  Not because we decided to get professional caliber DBs and WRs.  

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12 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Yes.  We got 10 wins because of Fitz and Fitz alone.  Not because we decided to get professional caliber DBs and WRs.  

Wait, you mean changing 3 of the 4 starting dbs along with the nickel had nothing to do with improving the defense and the team?

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Wait, you mean changing 3 of the 4 starting dbs along with the nickel had nothing to do with improving the defense and the team?

 

 

Didn't matter at all.  Neither did adding Marshall or having a healthy Decker.  Having DBs and WRs is not important in today's NFL.  It's all about the QB.  The easy schedule and timely opponent key injuries didn't matter either.

The only reason we won 10 games was Fitz.  And after Fitz put this team on his back and carried us all the way to 10 wins... the team failed FitzMagic week 17.  

 

 

 

 

 

:sarc:

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Here's my latest .02 cents on what I think that Fitz is thinking. He's in no hurry until around the 2nd week of the regular season. Now we all know that NFL starting QBs go down as fast as cracked out hookers on a south Florida Saturday night, and when that happen, THAT'S when Ryan Fitzpatrick will sign with whoever that desperate team happens to be. Also, that team will be more than happy to pay the bearded wonder 10 million making him 24th on the list. Meanwhile all 3 Jets QBs salaries equal out to be: $3,128,401. You see why nobody really wants to work for Woody Johnson?

53

Geno Smith

QUARTERBACK
$1,254,901
54

Christian Hackenberg

QUARTERBACK
$1,165,076
72

Bryce Petty

QUARTERBACK
$708,424
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45 minutes ago, SoFlaJets said:

Here's my latest .02 cents on what I think that Fitz is thinking. He's in no hurry until around the 2nd week of the regular season. Now we all know that NFL starting QBs go down as fast as cracked out hookers on a south Florida Saturday night, and when that happen, THAT'S when Ryan Fitzpatrick will sign with whoever that desperate team happens to be. Also, that team will be more than happy to pay the bearded wonder 10 million making him 24th on the list. Meanwhile all 3 Jets QBs salaries equal out to be: $3,128,401. You see why nobody really wants to work for Woody Johnson?

53

Geno Smith

QUARTERBACK
$1,254,901
54

Christian Hackenberg

QUARTERBACK
$1,165,076
72

Bryce Petty

QUARTERBACK
$708,424

So many expensive players work for him that we have already spent the maximum allowable, and would have to rob from next year's cap to make Fitzpatrick fit this year. 

They have a bunch of non-QBs that are counting a ton (the two biggest being Revis and Mo, at $17M and $16M respectively). 

They are also far and away the highest bidder for Fitzpatrick, who thinks he's worth more than the Jets or anyone is or has been offering. 

The cheapskate inference doesn't fit here, my friend. The Jets are max spenders who still have an offer on the table to push them into spending more than the max.

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13 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

So many expensive players work for him that we have already spent the maximum allowable, and would have to rob from next year's cap to make Fitzpatrick fit this year. 

They have a bunch of non-QBs that are counting a ton (the two biggest being Revis and Mo, at $17M and $16M respectively). 

They are also far and away the highest bidder for Fitzpatrick, who thinks he's worth more than the Jets or anyone is or has been offering. 

The cheapskate inference doesn't fit here, my friend. The Jets are max spenders who still have an offer on the table to push them into spending more than the max.

IMHO only way Fitz doesnt sign w/Jets 1st week of camp, is IF some guaranteed bonafide playoff/SB contending team has its starting QB go down before then and they have crap for backup. I dont know, maybe all great teams have better backups than Fitz, but that is only scenario I worry about in losing Fitz.

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On 7/3/2016 at 11:05 AM, slats said:

Because unlike free agents who are still unsigned while hosting their Independence Day barbecues, there was actually a market for Revis on the first day of free agency. 

Also -fun fact!- Revis' salary drops to $10M in the last two years of his deal. 

And what part of Revis's history makes you believe he will accept that?

What makes you think he will not hold out for a new contract before that happens, as he has done throughout his career?

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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

And what part of Revis's history makes you believe he will accept that?

What makes you think he will not hold out for a new contract before that happens, as he has done throughout his career?

Because his name is Slats, LOL ;)

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Basically the supply and demand curve on salaries in the NFL is not related to current number of job openings it's based on average salaries and standards. You don't squeeze a player just because at that moment most of the starting Qb jobs are filled. And the reason that happened in 2016 is because good young Qbs  like Carr, Mariota, Teddy filled the openings and are getting paid cheap. Also a team like Wash decided to keep Cousins and tag him. So I understand Fitz not signing that 3 year deal with the 2 indentured servant clauses that would pay him backup wages in 2017 and 2018. And basically the only reason for it is to bottle up Fitz and not allow him to negotiate with other teams if he has a good year in 2016. It's Mac and Woody's insurance policy. So if they want Fitz he's agreed to sign for one year and probably at this juncture would accept under 12 mil. And bet on himself to play well. It's really a win win for the Jets because you will be getting a motivated player. Sure you can say the same for Geno. The pressure would be on him too. But in terms of who gives us our best chance to win. Based on last year it's Fitz. And his career is not as bad as the haters project it to be. All they've done is search for the negatives and you can do that for any player including franchise Qbs. 

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17 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

But in terms of who gives us our best chance to win. Based on last year it's Fitz.

Disagee.

Fitz played with the best overall team we've had in quite a while.  And the team played the easiest schedule we may have ever had.  Yet Fitz failed.

Geno did not play and did not fail.

So we have a known failure vs an unknown.  Simple decision.

Then considering the failure wants a big pay day...  Geno becomes the glaringly obvious best choice.

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5 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Disagee.

Fitz played with the best overall team we've had in quite a while.  And the team played the easiest schedule we may have ever had.  Yet Fitz failed.

Geno did not play and did not fail.

So we have a known failure vs an unknown.  Simple decision.

Then considering the failure wants a big pay day...  Geno becomes the glaringly obvious best choice.

Hey look Mike. Geno was 4-12 in 2014 and was terrible (worst rating for a Qb two years in a row). And because of that everyone was fired. You can make all of the excuses for that you want. Fitz came aboard, off of a broken leg and was able to run our offense the best it's been in years. I mean Marshall and Decker didn't throw balls to themselves or run the O. To me 2016 is a year we go for it and play our best Qb. Because you never know if we'll have a team this good in the future. It's not a try out year for Geno or those other two guys if you want to put your best product on the field. 

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Just now, Rangers9 said:

So I guess you're saying that Bowles and Gailey and his two star receivers and Revis plus others don't know anything. 

I'm saying Fitz is not the best option moving forward, regardless of money.  In fact, there is no "forward" w/Fitz (as a starter).  It's stationary/mediocre at best, most likely backwards/worse, and in cap hell.

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Just now, Mike135 said:

I'm saying Fitz is not the best option moving forward, regardless of money.  In fact, there is no "forward" w/Fitz (as a starter).  It's stationary/mediocre at best, most likely backwards/worse, and in cap hell.

No cap hell, whoever said that. It's an excuse by the haters to not sign him. They can easily work it out no problem even with Mac spending all of our cap space. And if you don't believe me ask George Costanza's father!

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14 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

I'm saying Fitz is not the best option moving forward, regardless of money.  In fact, there is no "forward" w/Fitz (as a starter).  It's stationary/mediocre at best, most likely backwards/worse, and in cap hell.

I don't think anyone will argue that Fitz is "and answer" or a long term solution at the QB position.  He clearly is not.

What Fitz supporters will say, or should, is that the 2016 Jets are built as a "win in 2016" team.  We're not in mid-rebuild, we're loaded with talent at almost every position.  We should compete in 2016 for a post-season berth and a run in that postseason.

The argument is that Fitz, despite having not previously having made the playoffs, is still the superior option to making the playoffs in 2016.  Geno Smith, who also have never made the playoffs, and was the worst QB in the NFL his two years as the starter, does not have a 2015 to put on his resume to use as validation for starting him.  He is 100% conjecture as of today, he might play well, but Fitz did play well.  Fitz is also far more mature and well-liked, and would fill the role of mentor to the backup future QB's Petty and Hack better than Geno, who is roundly viewed as immature even now.  

Fitz is thus a 2016 (Starter), 2017-2018 (Mentor/Starter-then-Backup if Hack developes) option.

The decision to go with Geno Smith is a decision to abandon our most likely route to competativeness in 2016, and build towards a 2018-2020 time frame for our next playoff run.  It's a decision to "see what Geno has" with "talent around him" to determine if we use his option year and give him yet more chances in New York.  It's a decision to roll the dice, and suffer the consequences.  If Geno is Geno, and we lose, we've wasted in full one of the best rosters this team has ever fielded.  And we're then in full rebuild mode, where salary will be chopped, Revis and over-costly veterans will be cut loose, and Hack or Petty will be the "roll the dice" starter in 2017 and beyond. 

To support Geno, you must believe Geno will equal Fitz in terms of production now, in 2016, thus validate both his playing QB for a "win now" team, and his retention as the Jets QB in 2017 in his extension year.  If you don't believe he can do that, there is as little room to play Geno as there is anything else.   

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7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

To support Geno, you must believe Geno will equal Fitz in terms of production now, in 2016, thus validate both his playing QB for a "win now" team, and his retention as the Jets QB in 2017 in his extension year.  If you don't believe he can do that, there is as little room to play Geno as there is anything else.   

I do believe Geno can and will do better than Fitz.  It's not a high bar to reach.

But I disagree that he has to be better than Fitz to be the smarter decision.  There is no positive at all to starting Fitz.  None.  There are plenty of negatives.

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4 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

I do believe Geno can and will do better than Fitz.  It's not a high bar to reach.

But I disagree that he has to be better than Fitz to be the smarter decision.  There is no positive at all to starting Fitz.  None.  There are plenty of negatives.

I respect your opinion, but as of yet, we havent seen Geno make his Progressions reads during live NFL games. Has he had some decent games when it counted, ya (I dont count last 4 games of season when we are eliminated and no one cares, they are thinking of Tee Times and opponents playing backups/resting semi-hurt players)

But those games were when he hit Primary WR who was open or had nice scramble games.. But he has never really been able to go thru route tree FAST, why he scrambles so much. In nFL you HAVE to read progressions to win on constant basis.......But if he starts, I will root like hell for him :)

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29 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

I do believe Geno can and will do better than Fitz.  It's not a high bar to reach.

But I disagree that he has to be better than Fitz to be the smarter decision.  There is no positive at all to starting Fitz.  None.  There are plenty of negatives.

Agreed, I dont think the drop off would be that bad at all.  Not sure I'm willing to say he'll be better than Fitz but maybe.  It's certainly possible.  But what I really dont get is, why people view starting Geno as waving the white flag but dont feel the same way about Fitz.   It's bizarre.  The dude has proven over and over again, he's not the guy to get your there but yet somehow, starting him isnt wasting the season?  It's weird.

All my other points aside on why I'd prefer Geno, that one kind of large detail is lost on me in this debate. 

 

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3 minutes ago, JiF said:

Agreed, I dont think the drop off would be that bad at all.  Not sure I'm willing to say he'll be better than Fitz but maybe.  It's certainly possible.  But what I really dont get is, why people view starting Geno as waving the white flag but dont feel the same way about Fitz.   It's bizarre.  The dude has proven over and over again, he's not the guy to get your there but yet somehow, starting him isnt wasting the season?  It's weird.

All my other points aside on why I'd prefer Geno, that one king of large detail is lost on me in this debate. 

 

I don't think Fitz is anything more than a good backup/borderline starter. That said, Geno has never done anything close stat wise to what Fitzpatrick did last year. You can use all of the excuses you want, like easy schedule, tons of talent, etc., and they are valid points, but Geno has not proven anything.

Not getting it done with bad talent does not equal will get it done with good talent, its a serious logic flaw.

What teams has Fitzpatrick been on that were good enough that a borderline starting QB should have been able to take them to the playoffs? I mean, when you say he has proven time and time again he is not the guy, that is what you are saying, no?

Is he a QB who is going to take bad talent to the playoffs, hell no!, but that is not the argument here.

Thinking Geno can do it, and him actually doing it, are 2 totally different things. I hope he can, but hope is not really a strategy.

I don't think this is a title contending team, so I don't overly care who starts. But I would like to evaluate Bowles with his guy, and not have any excuses for him. If he has his guy and shows no growth, we start to get a clear picture on Bowles. If he has Geno, who he clearly does not want to start as his QB, he has an excuse built in.

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11 minutes ago, BowlesMovement said:

I don't think Fitz is anything more than a good backup/borderline starter. That said, Geno has never done anything close stat wise to what Fitzpatrick did last year. You can use all of the excuses you want, like easy schedule, tons of talent, etc., and they are valid points, but Geno has not proven anything.

Not getting it done with bad talent does not equal will get it done with good talent, its a serious logic flaw.

What teams has Fitzpatrick been on that were good enough that a borderline starting QB should have been able to take them to the playoffs? I mean, when you say he has proven time and time again he is not the guy, that is what you are saying, no?

Is he a QB who is going to take bad talent to the playoffs, hell no!, but that is not the argument here.

Thinking Geno can do it, and him actually doing it, are 2 totally different things. I hope he can, but hope is not really a strategy.

I don't think this is a title contending team, so I don't overly care who starts. But I would like to evaluate Bowles with his guy, and not have any excuses for him. If he has his guy and shows no growth, we start to get a clear picture on Bowles. If he has Geno, who he clearly does not want to start as his QB, he has an excuse built in.

Meh, Fitz is an 11 year veteran who finally had a good season in the right system, with the right players.  I think it's safe to say, QB's can get better with experience and when placed in the right environment, it can clearly help elevate their play.  So comparing their careers, isnt really fair.  Fitz once led the league in turnovers during a 3 year stretch in Buffalo. So, he's been plenty awful in his journeyman career.

In regards to what teams has Fitz been on that should have made the playoffs? He started 5-2 in Buffalo in 2011.  He got injured the year he could have done it with Houston. And then last years obvious choke job.   

With all that said, I'm not sure evaluating Bowles based on anything Ryan Fitzpatrick related is entirely fair.  Nobody else has been able to get anything good out of him.  

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Just now, JiF said:

Meh, Fitz is an 11 year veteran who finally had a good season in the right system, with the right players.  I think it's safe to say, QB's  can get better with experience and when in certain environments, it can clearly help elevate your play.  So comparing their careers, isnt really fair.  Fitz once led the league in turnovers during a 3 year stretch in Buffalo. So, he's been plenty awful in his journeyman career.

In regards to what teams has Fitz been on that should have made the playoffs? He started 5-2 in Buffalo in 2011.  He got injured the year he could have done it with Houston. And then last years obvious choke job.   

With all that said, I'm not sure evaluating Bowles based on anything Ryan Fitzpatrick related is entirely fair.  Nobody else has been able to get anything good out of him.  

Of course QB's can get better with experience, and do. And I am not making any comparisons, I expect Fitzpatrick to be a better QB than I do Geno this year, for many reasons. I am not comparing them, I am simply saying that there is no reason to believe Geno can come anywhere near where Fitzpatrick has based on his history. Even if you want to say there was no reason to think Fitzpatrick would have done what he did last year, it still does not imply in any way that Geno can make the same jump.

In 2011, he was playing the second half of the season with broken ribs, and the Bills were hit really bad by injuries. He likely would have made the playoffs with the Texans had he not been injured. 

Again, he is not an upper tier, or even a second tier QB who you can expect to carry a team on his back.

I don't really want to evaluate Bowles based on how the season goes with Fitzpatrick, more on the approach. I want to see him and Gailey start attacking defenses, in that they take what the defense is giving them, and don't insist on swimming upstream. If Geno comes in, I think you are going to see a lot of that, and his excuse will be, well, its Geno.

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

And what part of Revis's history makes you believe he will accept that?

What makes you think he will not hold out for a new contract before that happens, as he has done throughout his career?

He didn't have to sign it if he didn't like it. 

But in those last two years, he'll be 34 and 35 years old, respectively. The $10M figure will probably be right around market price for his services at that stage of the game - if not high. Plus, the new CBA more than doubled the fines for not reporting to camp from $14k to $30k per day. So holding out of training camp would result in about $1.5M in fines before his holdout really started hurting the team. 

His past holdouts have been smart plays on his part. Absorbing those fines while trying to get more than $10M at 34 years old probably wouldn't be the smart play. So no, I don't think he'll hold out at that time. 

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

He didn't have to sign it if he didn't like it. 

But in those last two years, he'll be 34 and 35 years old, respectively. The $10M figure will probably be right around market price for his services at that stage of the game - if not high. Plus, the new CBA more than doubled the fines for not reporting to camp from $14k to $30k per day. So holding out of training camp would result in about $1.5M in fines before his holdout really started hurting the team. 

His past holdouts have been smart plays on his part. Absorbing those fines while trying to get more than $10M at 34 years old probably wouldn't be the smart play. So no, I don't think he'll hold out at that time. 

So you really want to pay Revis the entire 70 million bucks. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-jets/darrelle-revis/  And think it was a good signing. Just name one other team that would have been in the market for him with that price tag? 

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16 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

So you really want to pay Revis the entire 70 million bucks. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-jets/darrelle-revis/  And think it was a good signing. Just name one other team that would have been in the market for him with that price tag? 

The last two years are the Jets option, and if Revis' play doesn't decline too much by that time, 2 years/$20M will probably be good for both sides. If his play does decline, they can get out as early as next year without too much damage. 

The Jets outbid other teams to sign him to that deal, but Revis absolutely would've been signed for something close to that in the earliest stages of free agency if the Jets hadn't done that. We're talking here about a top player at a premium position. I get that you like to point to Darrelle Revis as the #1 reason that Fitzpatrick hasn't signed, but the real #1 reason is Fitzpatrick's stubbornness. 

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7 minutes ago, slats said:

The last two years are the Jets option, and if Revis' play doesn't decline too much by that time, 2 years/$20M will probably be good for both sides. If his play does decline, they can get out as early as next year without too much damage. 

The Jets outbid other teams to sign him to that deal, but Revis absolutely would've been signed for something close to that in the earliest stages of free agency if the Jets hadn't done that. We're talking here about a top player at a premium position. I get that you like to point to Darrelle Revis as the #1 reason that Fitzpatrick hasn't signed, but the real #1 reason is Fitzpatrick's stubbornness. 

Forget about Fitz. As NEP knew Revis isn't the player he used to be. You don't give him the highest ever deal for a corner the first day of his free agency. 17 mil for him is  stupid-crazy. 10 mil per at 34 and 35 is not a good deal either esp after paying him over 50 mil to get to that figure. 

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1 minute ago, Rangers9 said:

Forget about Fitz. As NEP knew Revis isn't the player he used to be. You don't give him the highest ever deal for a corner the first day of his free agency. 17 mil for him is  stupid-crazy. 10 mil per at 34 and 35 is not a good deal either esp after paying him over 50 mil to get to that figure. 

Okay, cool, I don't give a crap. 

Only brought it up in the first place because Revis signed a contract that drops his pay in the final two years, something that you said no one ever does. If a future HoF'er can sign a deal like that, so can a career journeyman. $17M for Revis is no more crazy than $12M for Fitz, IMHO. 

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1 minute ago, slats said:

Okay, cool, I don't give a crap. 

Only brought it up in the first place because Revis signed a contract that drops his pay in the final two years, something that you said no one ever does. If a future HoF'er can sign a deal like that, so can a career journeyman. $17M for Revis is no more crazy than $12M for Fitz, IMHO. 

You know and I know that's it's not the same thing. Sure Fitz would take a front loaded deal that pays him over the contract standard market for a starting Qb. As for you saying he's stubborn how is that. If he doesn't like the deal. 

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5 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

Forget about Fitz. As NEP knew Revis isn't the player he used to be. You don't give him the highest ever deal for a corner the first day of his free agency. 17 mil for him is  stupid-crazy. 10 mil per at 34 and 35 is not a good deal either esp after paying him over 50 mil to get to that figure. 

With relatively few exceptions, every UFA signs with the highest bidder. Therefore for each of them one could say their former teams, as well as the 30 others, "knew" not to match or exceed the top bidder. It's neither here nor there. NE made a serious bid to retain him and he wanted to see if the Jets would beat it. The Jets did, and it's as simple as that. 

Youre making it out as though NE offered him less than the Fitzpatrick offer and he Jets mindlessly outbid them by a huge margin. Reality is they wanted him back but backed out when the guaranteed money hit the upper 30s. 

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3 hours ago, SouthernJet said:

IMHO only way Fitz doesnt sign w/Jets 1st week of camp, is IF some guaranteed bonafide playoff/SB contending team has its starting QB go down before then and they have crap for backup. I dont know, maybe all great teams have better backups than Fitz, but that is only scenario I worry about in losing Fitz.

Agree (except for the part about worrying that we lose him). Only a new injury elsewhere, to a serious contender, likely keeps Fitz from re-signing when camp starts. Even then he still might return, but it would be for a couple dollars more than currently being offered. Then again there's no guarantee Fitz would be the other contender's top choice anyhow. Bradford, Daniel, Kaepernick, Glennon, McCown are all possibilities for such a team. Maybe Sanchez as well, should he fail to win the starting job this summer. 

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6 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

You know and I know that's it's not the same thing. Sure Fitz would take a front loaded deal that pays him over the contract standard market for a starting Qb. As for you saying he's stubborn how is that. If he doesn't like the deal. 

QBs who are still free agents in July aren't worth "standard market for a starting QB." This is why Fitz is stubborn. He's got a very generous offer on the table, a three year deal that averages more than the best (alleged) offer he got anywhere else over the course of four months in free agency (one year, $7M from Denver). 

Fitz isn't in the standard market, he's in the Fitzpatrick market. The Jets are offering a very handsome sum for the Fitzpatrick market. If he doesn't like it, he doesn't have to sign, but the Jets would be foolish to alter the length or money given the current state of the Fitzpatrick market. 

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13 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

With relatively few exceptions, every UFA signs with the highest bidder. Therefore for each of them one could say their former teams, as well as the 30 others, "knew" not to match or exceed the top bidder. It's neither here nor there. NE made a serious bid to retain him and he wanted to see if the Jets would beat it. The Jets did, and it's as simple as that. 

Youre making it out as though NE offered him less than the Fitzpatrick offer and he Jets mindlessly outbid them by a huge margin. Reality is they wanted him back but backed out when the guaranteed money hit the upper 30s. 

That 2 year NEP deal was pre-set to cut him after year one. They never ever considered paying Revis that 20 mil. 

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7 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Agree (except for the part about worrying that we lose him). Only a new injury elsewhere, to a serious contender, likely keeps Fitz from re-signing when camp starts. Even then he still might return, but it would be for a couple dollars more than currently being offered. Then again there's no guarantee Fitz would be the other contender's top choice anyhow. Bradford, Daniel, Kaepernick, Glennon, McCown are all possibilities for such a team. Maybe Sanchez as well, should he fail to win the starting job this summer. 

ya agree,, if its a defense strong team w/good run game I could see a team like that going for fitz.. game manager, that doesnt need strong arm and lets defense, run game take care of things for most part..dont be dumb, take sacks when needed, the team would probably be ahead most games so that helps mask a Fitz isssue w/INTs

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