FiveThirtyEight singles out Jets and Ravens re: schedule imbalance

[ZachEY]

For the 'TLDR/math was invented to push the homosexual agenda' crowd, the article is basically saying the Ravens are most likely set up to come out hot and then 'collapse', based on an easy start and tough finish.  The Jets are a likely team to be 'surprise' playoff contenders after an exceptionally difficult start followed by a much easier finish.  Names a few other teams who may find their way into these narratives as well.

JUL 22, 2016 AT 11:25 AM

These NFL Teams Will Probably Start Hot Because Of An Easy Schedule

By Chase Stuart

Filed under NFL

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Sometimes the arc of an NFL team’s season can reflect real changes in its performance, but just as often it’s simply an illusion of the schedule machine: Does the team play its toughest games early in the season, or late? It’s something we can even see coming ahead of time, if we do the math.

For instance, the Baltimore Ravens’ schedule should help them get off to a hot start in 2016. The Ravens begin the season against the Bills, Browns, Jaguars, Raiders and Redskins, teams that went a combined 32-48 last year. But down the stretch, Baltimore travels to New England, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, three of the AFC’s four best teams by point differentiallast season. This back-loaded schedule could have the Ravens in playoff contention all year long, creating a narrative that the team “choked” away a postseason berth after hitting that brutal end-of-year stretch.

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On the other hand, you have the New York Jets, whose schedule will be extraordinarily difficult in the early going before easing up late. The Jets went 10-6 last year, but they’ll also be underdogs in each of their first six games: road trips to Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Arizona and Buffalo — the latter coming on just three days rest — and home games against top contenders Cincinnati and Seattle. After that, though, the only favored opponent left on New York’s slate will be the Patriots (who they’ll face twice). After a potential 2-4 start, the Jets would seem to be in trouble for most of the season, only to make a “surprise” playoff push once the schedule softens up.

But both storylines would owe almost completely to scheduling, provided the teams play as expected. In fact, the Jets and the Ravens meet in Week 7, which represents a turning point for each club. Through six weeks, Baltimore has the NFL’s third-easiest schedule, but from Week 8 onward their opponents rank sixth-toughest. Conversely, the Jets own the toughest schedule in the league through six weeks — by far — but the seventh-easiest slate over the final 10 weeks of the year. That’s why they exist at opposite poles of the schedule “loadedness” (front- and back-) spectrum for the 2016 season:

NFL teams with the most back- (and front-) loaded schedules

		DIFFICULTY OF SCHEDULE*
	TEAM	UNWEIGHTED	WEIGHTED BY ORDER PLAYED**	BACKLOADED FACTOR
1	Baltimore Ravens	-0.1	+1.0	+1.1
2	Arizona Cardinals	-0.1	+0.7	+0.8
3	Oakland Raiders	-0.2	+0.5	+0.7
4	Washington Redskins	+0.3	+0.8	+0.5
5	Seattle Seahawks	+0.1	+0.5	+0.4
6	Indianapolis Colts	-0.6	-0.3	+0.4
7	Tennessee Titans	-0.5	-0.2	+0.3
8	Green Bay Packers	-0.5	-0.2	+0.3
9	Houston Texans	-0.5	-0.3	+0.2
10	Philadelphia Eagles	+0.3	+0.4	+0.2
11	Detroit Lions	-0.2	0.0	+0.2
12	New England Patriots	+0.1	+0.2	+0.1
13	Miami Dolphins	0.0	+0.1	+0.1
14	New Orleans Saints	+0.3	+0.4	+0.1
15	Dallas Cowboys	-0.6	-0.5	+0.1
16	Carolina Panthers	-0.3	-0.3	+0.1
17	Jacksonville Jaguars	-0.2	-0.1	0.0
18	Denver Broncos	-0.2	-0.2	0.0
19	Cleveland Browns	+0.3	+0.3	0.0
20	New York Giants	-0.3	-0.4	0.0
21	San Francisco 49ers	+0.9	+0.8	-0.1
22	Chicago Bears	-0.3	-0.4	-0.1
23	Minnesota Vikings	0.0	-0.1	-0.1
24	Los Angeles Rams	+0.6	+0.4	-0.2
25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+0.4	+0.2	-0.2
26	Kansas City Chiefs	-0.3	-0.5	-0.2
27	Atlanta Falcons	+0.5	+0.2	-0.3
28	San Diego Chargers	-0.5	-0.8	-0.3
29	Buffalo Bills	+0.1	-0.3	-0.4
30	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.3	-0.9	-0.6
31	New York Jets	+0.7	-0.1	-0.7
32	Cincinnati Bengals	0.0	-0.8	-0.7

*Schedule strength is based on projected power ratings, where a higher number means tougher opponents.
**Quality of opponents at the end of the season receive more weight

SOURCE: CG TECHNOLOGY, FOOTBALLPERSPECTIVE.COM

I determined this using early point spreads released by the Las Vegas bookmaker CG Technology. The spreads can be turned into power ratings for each team, which can themselves be used to reflect back on every team’s strength of schedule.¹(This is a better way of forecasting schedule strength than the traditional NFL method, which simply uses opponent records from the previous year.) To judge the “back-loadedness” of a team’s schedule, then, I simply weighted each opponent’s strength by its proximity to the end of the season,²and looked at which teams saw the biggest difference in schedule difficulty when compared with their basic, unweighted strengths of schedule.

Along with Baltimore, Arizona and Oakland figure to have the league’s most back-loaded schedules next year, with their toughest games coming relatively later in the year. Meanwhile, the Jets, Bengals, and Steelers all have the opposite problem, as their toughest challenges come before the midpoint of the season.

All else being equal — and in the Jets’ case, it might not be (they also have one of the most difficult schedules in the league overall) — it probably doesn’t matter whether a team’s schedule is front- or back-loaded; one way or another, you eventually have to face all the teams on your schedule. But the sequence of a team’s opponents is important in how it shapes the story of the season, as a few quirks of the schedule can have a real effect on the way a team is perceived by fans and the media.

[dbatesman]

great article except for games are played on the FIELD not inside of a COMPTUER

[joewilly12]

26 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

great article except for games are played on the FIELD not inside of a COMPTUER

On any given Sunday

[Matt39]

1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

great article except for games are played on the FIELD not inside of a COMPTUER

 

 

 

 

[Kevin L]

IMO, we have enough talent on both sides of the ball to beat anyone in the league. Obviously the X factor is going to be how well our QB plays.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

tks for cliffs 

[Villain The Foe]

41 minutes ago, Kevin L said:

IMO, we have enough talent on both sides of the ball to beat anyone in the league. Obviously the X factor is going to be how well our QB plays.

I agree. Though this schedule is brutal, we have more than enough talent on both sides of the ball to hit our bye week with a winning record. And if we're a .500/sub .500 after the first 7 weeks of games, the Jets simply didnt do their job. 

These are teams that they will most likely face in the playoffs or the SB if they actually made it that far. The first 7 games are: 

1. Bengals

2. Bills

3. Chiefs 

4. Seahawks

5. Steelers

6. Cardinals

7. Ravens. 

If we cant find a way to come out of that stretch with a minimum record of 4-3 then the Jets are simply underachieving. The two teams that im seriously concerned about are the Seahawks and the Steelers. 

The Seahawks defense are the typical dominate defense, but its really about chemistry of Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett that has me concerned. Russell is really good improvising and Doug Baldwin has quietly become one of the best route running WR's in the game today. Tyler Lockett is a pretty good route runner as well but if we could find a way to jam him at the line we'll be okay...though they run him through the slot alot. 

The Steelers always seem to have our number and its because we can never get Roethlisberger to the ground. The dude must put butter on his uniform because guys slip right off when trying to tackle him. Not to mention the talent and style of play overall. The rest of those teams I honestly expect the Jets to beat, though I'll give the Cards the benefit of the doubt as well. They're a very good team. 

That leaves the Jets with a 4-3 record entering week 8. 

[Kevin L]

12 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

I agree. Though this schedule is brutal, we have more than enough talent on both sides of the ball to hit our bye week with a winning record. And if we're a .500/sub .500 after the first 7 weeks of games, the Jets simply didnt do their job. 

These are teams that they will most likely face in the playoffs or the SB if they actually made it that far. The first 7 games are: 

1. Bengals

2. Bills

3. Chiefs 

4. Seahawks

5. Steelers

6. Cardinals

7. Ravens. 

If we cant find a way to come out of that stretch with a minimum record of 4-3 then the Jets are simply underachieving. The two teams that im seriously concerned about are the Seahawks and the Steelers. 

The Seahawks defense are the typical dominate defense, but its really about chemistry of Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett that has me concerned. Russell is really good improvising and Doug Baldwin has quietly become one of the best route running WR's in the game today. Tyler Lockett is a pretty good route runner as well but if we could find a way to jam him at the line we'll be okay...though they run him through the slot alot. 

The Steelers always seem to have our number and its because we can never get Roethlisberger to the ground. The dude must put butter on his uniform because guys slip right off when trying to tackle him. Not to mention the talent and style of play overall. The rest of those teams I honestly expect the Jets to beat, though I'll give the Cards the benefit of the doubt as well. They're a very good team. 

That leaves the Jets with a 4-3 record entering week 8. 

The Seahawks, Steelers and Cards are the teams that really worry me during that stretch. I think the retirement of Marshawn Lynch combined with the fact it's a home game gives us the edge. I expect to lose in Pittsburgh, because that's just what we do in Pittsburgh. Hopefully we can sneak out of AZ with a win. If we cant beat good teams, we have no business in going to the playoffs.

[thshadow]

4 hours ago, dbatesman said:

great article except for games are played on the FIELD not inside of a COMPTUER

Yeah, I don't read the newspaper either, because games are played on the FIELD not inside some stupid writer's HEAD!!!

[Lizard King]

Very impressed that super stats could mathematically show that a team with a tougher schedule earlier in the year would be playing at a higher level when their opponents got easier later in the season and vice versa.