Fitzpatrick and Strength of Schedule

[slats]

Decided to make this its own thread. I came up with these numbers very simply, giving Fitz won/loss credit for the games he appeared in with the Texans in 2014 vs. the ones he didn't. Feel free to parse it further. 

We've spoken a lot about the Jets easy schedule last year, and that's been countered with how well Fitzpatrick performed the year before with the Texans - when he faced an even easier schedule! He was 6-6 against a .437 winning percentage schedule. Teams he actually beat? A winning percentage of .240. Ironically, the only team he beat that year who had a winning record were the 9-7 Buffalo Bills.

The Texans overall were 9-7 that year, going 3-1 without Fitz in the lineup, beating the 10-5-1 Bengals, and the 10-6 Ravens along the way. 

This guy beats bottom feeders. It's what he does. He takes what he's given, and nothing more. I understand hating Geno, but the idea that Fitzpatrick is potentially a postseason/championship QB is ridiculous. 

[whodeawhodat]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

Decided to make this its own thread. I came up with these numbers very simply, giving Fitz won/loss credit for the games he appeared in with the Texans in 2014 vs. the ones he didn't. Feel free to parse it further. 

We've spoken a lot about the Jets easy schedule last year, and that's been countered with how well Fitzpatrick performed the year before with the Texans - when he faced an even easier schedule! He was 6-6 against a .437 winning percentage schedule. Teams he actually beat? A winning percentage of .240. Ironically, the only team he beat that year who had a winning record were the 9-7 Buffalo Bills.

The Texans overall were 9-7 that year, going 3-1 without Fitz in the lineup, beating the 10-5-1 Bengals, and the 10-6 Ravens along the way. 

This guy beats bottom feeders. It's what he does. He takes what he's given, and nothing more. I understand hating Geno, but the idea that Fitzpatrick is potentially a postseason/championship QB is ridiculous. 

In a league of parity since the salary cap, he should have won 11 games last season.  since he didn't, he is crap.  got it.  when is camp?

[Saul Goodman]

Great analysis! Soneome needs to show this to Maccagnan and Bowles. The Jets will surely pull their offer. 

[JustInFudge]

Yeah, it's so duh with Fitzpatrick it's laughable.  There's a reason he's still available, played for 7 teams and hasnt made the playoffs in his career.

And because it's the Jets, this is the best we can do, so he will start.  We will go 8-8 and do this all over again next offseason!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

[AFJF]

All of this, and the Jets still prefer Fitz.

What does that say about their feelings on Geno?

 

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, AFJF said:

All of this, and the Jets still prefer Fitz.

What does that say about their feelings on Geno?

 

That they prefer aged turd? 

[slats]

Just now, AFJF said:

All of this, and the Jets still prefer Fitz.

What does that say about their feelings on Geno?

 

This is a thread about Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don't expect Geno to be on the team beyond this season, and won't miss him when he's gone. Also, those people and their feelings really want Hackenberg to be ready to go by 2017. 

[AFJF]

13 minutes ago, slats said:

Decided to make this its own thread. I came up with these numbers very simply, giving Fitz won/loss credit for the games he appeared in with the Texans in 2014 vs. the ones he didn't. Feel free to parse it further. 

We've spoken a lot about the Jets easy schedule last year, and that's been countered with how well Fitzpatrick performed the year before with the Texans - when he faced an even easier schedule! He was 6-6 against a .437 winning percentage schedule. Teams he actually beat? A winning percentage of .240. Ironically, the only team he beat that year who had a winning record were the 9-7 Buffalo Bills.

The Texans overall were 9-7 that year, going 3-1 without Fitz in the lineup, beating the 10-5-1 Bengals, and the 10-6 Ravens along the way. 

This guy beats bottom feeders. It's what he does. He takes what he's given, and nothing more. I understand hating Geno, but the idea that Fitzpatrick is potentially a postseason/championship QB is ridiculous. 

What about he feeling that he's a competent QB and ideal mentor for the two guys this FO has drafted?  That may have more value than his performance on the field when all is said and done.

Jets finally have a FO that's prioritizing drafting and developing QBs.  

No complaints here.

[faba]

I do not think many Jet fans think Fitz is championship caliber QB-even his loyal supporters. More of what they have seen from Geno that steers them to Fitz who has shown he can be competent enough with support

[Matt39]

6 minutes ago, JiF said:

Yeah, it's so duh with Fitzpatrick it's laughable.  There's a reason he's still available, played for 7 teams and hasnt made the playoffs in his career.

And because it's the Jets, this is the best we can do, so he will start.  We will go 8-8 and do this all over again next offseason!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

The Jets have a ton of money locked into older players. Everyone who wanted Idzik gone cant be pushing for the Jets to play a younger QB who probably still sucks. If the idea was to continue to tank they should have never fired the guy who was willing to purge the roster.

[Maxman]

That is worse than I thought it would be, wow. Crazy stat.

[faba]

And as Jet fans seeing the lousy QB play over so many years competent is an upgrade-hah

[slats]

Just now, AFJF said:

What about he feeling that he's a competent QB and ideal mentor for the two guys this FO has drafted?  That may have more value than his performance on the field when all is said and done.

Jets finally have a FO that's prioritizing drafting and developing QBs.  

No complaints here.

Again, I've said from the start that Fitzpatrick's value is in his professional approach to the game, and his value as a mentor to the kids. I think the 3/$24M offer is high for those purposes, but I'll shrug my shoulders if that's the agreement they come to. I'll be extremely disappointed if they cave to a one year deal, though. And Fitz will ultimately be disappointed to, even if he doesn't realize it, because this season he's not getting the luxury of playing a bunch of patsies like he's gotten to the last two. He'll never see that much money again if he doesn't take it now. 

[Jetsfan80]

So what?  We know all this.  We're talking about an organization that once paid Chad Pennington $64M.  Along comes Fitzpatrick.  We know he struggles against strong defenses like Pennington, which is really the only similarity.  Unlike Pennington, he did not cost us a 1st round pick (Fitz cost us a 7th rounder), won't ever cost us that kind of money, has better arm strength (insert noodle arm jokes), running ability, and "moxie"/toughness, and is far more likable. 

Fitz also does not give us false hope like Pennington once did.  We AND the organization are well aware of what he is and what he is not.  So really, the constant new threads and complaints are stupid.  Everyone is on the same page. 

[RutgersJetFan]

22 minutes ago, slats said:

..the idea that Fitzpatrick is potentially a postseason/championship QB is ridiculous. 

Aside from one single poster that is clearly a nutbar, who the hell else has ever argued this?

[slats]

1 minute ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Aside from one, single poster that is clearly a nutbar, who the hell else has ever argued this?

Quite a few say that Fitzpatrick is the team's best and/or only chance at the playoffs. And then they say once you get there, anything can happen. 

[slats]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So what?  We know all this.  We're talking about an organization that once paid Chad Pennington $64M.  Along comes Fitzpatrick.  We know he struggles against strong defenses like Pennington, which is really the only similarity.  Unlike Pennington, he did not cost us a 1st round pick (Fitz cost us a 7th rounder), won't ever cost us that kind of money, has better arm strength (insert noodle arm jokes), running ability, and moxie, and is far more likable. 

Fitz also does not give us false hope like Pennington once did.  We AND the organization are well aware of what he is and what he is not.  So really, the constant new threads and complaints are stupid.  Everyone is on the same page. 

Actually, I don't think that everyone knew that Fitz faced an even easier schedule with the Texans than he did last year with the Jets - which last year was the easiest schedule in the league. Or that the teams he beat that year collectively lost more than 75% of their games.  

The rest of that post, holy mackerel, I just don't know. Let's sign Fitz because we don't have to worry about being optimistic, especially if it's for less than Chad Pennington got. That's quite the battle cry. 

[Beerfish]

That's the job of a mid level caretaker game manager QB, to beat the bottom feeders and teams he should beat.

Other than the absolute elite QB's I would imagine many QB's in this league have worse records vs good teams, kind of makes sense.

Next point is 'so what'?  It doesn't matter that Fitzpatrick has to be able to beat all the good teams, it only matter that he has to be better than Geno, Petty and Hackenburg.  Those are our choices.

 

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

That's the job of a mid level caretaker game manager QB, to beat the bottom feeders and teams he should beat.

Other than the absolute elite QB's I would imagine many QB's in this league have worse records vs good teams, kind of makes sense.

Next point is 'so what'?  It doesn't matter that Fitzpatrick has to be able to beat all the good teams, it only matter that he has to be better than Geno, Petty and Hackenburg.  Those are our choices.

 

How much better? Because all those other guys are under contract, and Fitz is balking at $15M guaranteed. I'm not sure that Fitz will get us any additional wins over what Geno can produce, and I strongly doubt he can win $15M worth more. Overall, I'd think Fitz would plow thru the bottom of the schedule, while Geno would screw up a couple easy games and surprise by winning a couple of the tougher ones. 

[cant wait]

9 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

That's the job of a mid level caretaker game manager QB, to beat the bottom feeders and teams he should beat.

Other than the absolute elite QB's I would imagine many QB's in this league have worse records vs good teams, kind of makes sense.

Next point is 'so what'?  It doesn't matter that Fitzpatrick has to be able to beat all the good teams, it only matter that he has to be better than Geno, Petty and Hackenburg.  Those are our choices.

 

Right because the privelege of losing with precious Fitzpatrick is easily worth $12M+ a year 

[Rangers9]

Well Brady had a similar schedule last year and nobody questions them winning 12 games. And some of those games were pretty close. And as one poster yesterday pointed out what do you base SOS on. At the beginning of 2015 we were rated at something like 18th in terms of SOS. And things changed during the year. That could end up  being the same thing this year we don't know who's going to be good or bad. Hopefully we'll be good. Yeah, I do think with Fitz we are more competitive and have a better chance at making the playoffs. Bottom feeder. I don't believe the Jets players and coaches feel that way. It's a very negative term. And shows extreme pessimism. Again it's data mining for negatives about one player. You can do it for anyone. Plus no mention of any of the positives. It's one-sided for sure. On purpose. 

[slats]

^context denier

[AFJF]

42 minutes ago, slats said:

This is a thread about Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don't expect Geno to be on the team beyond this season, and won't miss him when he's gone. Also, those people and their feelings really want Hackenberg to be ready to go by 2017. 

Precisely, and who they choose to play a role in getting him ready is important IMO.  I'm glad they want him to learn from Fitz.

If, when all is said and done, Hackenberg is an upper-echelon QB, who's going to be complaining five or six years from now about "that time we paid Ryan Fitzpatrick $6 million more than he was worth"?

[56mehl56]

42 minutes ago, AFJF said:

What about he feeling that he's a competent QB and ideal mentor for the two guys this FO has drafted?  That may have more value than his performance on the field when all is said and done.

Jets finally have a FO that's prioritizing drafting and developing QBs.  

No complaints here.

An ideal mentor who hasn't spent one second of offseason time with Hackenburg, An ideal mentor who when offered a deal to get a 2016 salary he couldn't get elsewhere and with an added two years to be the mentor - holds out . If he was an ideal mentor he would of have signed the contract and gone to work with the other 3 QB's in OTA's , Mini Camp etc. 

[AFJF]

Just now, 56mehl56 said:

An ideal mentor who hasn't spent one second of offseason time with Hackenburg, An ideal mentor who when offered a deal to get a 2016 salary he couldn't get elsewhere and with an added two years to be the mentor - holds out . If he was an ideal mentor he would of have signed the contract and gone to work with the other 3 QB's in OTA's , Mini Camp etc. 

A great deal of mentoring comes in showing a player how to prepare. Hack has infinitely better physical skills that Fitz.  If he prepares, learns and develops as the team hopes he will under Fitz, he can be great.

Meanwhile, they can't even trust Geno to show him how to set his watch.

[Big Blocker]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Decided to make this its own thread. I came up with these numbers very simply, giving Fitz won/loss credit for the games he appeared in with the Texans in 2014 vs. the ones he didn't. Feel free to parse it further. 

We've spoken a lot about the Jets easy schedule last year, and that's been countered with how well Fitzpatrick performed the year before with the Texans - when he faced an even easier schedule! He was 6-6 against a .437 winning percentage schedule. Teams he actually beat? A winning percentage of .240. Ironically, the only team he beat that year who had a winning record were the 9-7 Buffalo Bills.

The Texans overall were 9-7 that year, going 3-1 without Fitz in the lineup, beating the 10-5-1 Bengals, and the 10-6 Ravens along the way. 

This guy beats bottom feeders. It's what he does. He takes what he's given, and nothing more. I understand hating Geno, but the idea that Fitzpatrick is potentially a postseason/championship QB is ridiculous. 

Team won-lost percentage is a team stat.  The Texans were a middle of the pack team, and RF was in on a 6-6 record.  Attempting to isolate him as the variable comparing to when hew as not in the lineup was too small a sample size.

In any event you would EXPECT a team, and all the players on it, to beat the worse teams more often than the better ones. Your own argument recognizes the Texans beat the Bills. 

I sense you think your analysis says more than it really does.  It does fit with a dislike of RF, though.  Wonder why the FO would even think of offering him a contract if they actually thought he made the team's prospects worse by playing.  Maybe they see something your brief analysis leaves out?

[56mehl56]

44 minutes ago, faba said:

I do not think many Jet fans think Fitz is championship caliber QB-even his loyal supporters. More of what they have seen from Geno that steers them to Fitz who has shown he can be competent enough with support

There's 11 years of evidence that Fitz is just a mediocre QB, there's 2+ years of Geno one in which he went 8-8 yet people have closed the book on Geno, it truly boggles the mind.

[AFJF]

Put the guy down all you like, but at the end of the day, almost every single person who matters in this scenario (Bowles, Mac, Marshall, Decker) prefers Fitz. 

[56mehl56]

2 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Put the guy down all you like, but at the end of the day, almost every single person who matters in this scenario (Bowles, Mac, Marshall, Decker) prefers Fitz. 

Out of those only Bowles and Mac matter.  The players never had and never should have a say in roster determination. If that ever happened it would be time to fire them all.

[slats]

3 minutes ago, Big Blocker said:

Team won-lost percentage is a team stat.  The Texans were a middle of the pack team, and RF was in on a 6-6 record.  Attempting to isolate him as the variable comparing to when hew as not in the lineup was too small a sample size.

In any event you would EXPECT a team, and all the players on it, to beat the worse teams more often than the better ones. Your own argument recognizes the Texans beat the Bills. 

I sense you think your analysis says more than it really does.  It does fit with a dislike of RF, though.  Wonder why the FO would even think of offering him a contract if they actually thought he made the team's prospects worse by playing.  Maybe they see something your brief analysis leaves out?

His last two seasons have been his best statistically, and have also come against remarkably easy schedules. Fitz fans want to see a QB who has turned the corner after bouncing around a quarter of the league, detractors see a guy who put up decent numbers against weak teams. 

In no way, shape, or form am I calling this the ultimate analysis, just trying to give some context to not one, but two seasons in a row against surprisingly easy schedules. Two years in a row where he put up decent numbers, but won against bad teams and generally lost to good ones. In the Texans' case, two of their three wins against teams with winning records came when Fitz was out of the lineup. Despite the fact that he was actually having his best season ever, his coach benched him before trading him for a conditional 7th rounder. And some people here think 3/$24M is an unfair offer to this guy. 

[AFJF]

Just now, 56mehl56 said:

Out of those only Bowles and Mac matter.  The players never had and never should have a say in roster determination. If that ever happened it would be time to fire them all.

I didn't mean they have (or should have) input on Fitz's place on the roster, but in terms of this months-long/never-ending debate about the two QB's...I would trust their assessment of the two QB's before anyone else.

So you're right...only the opinions of Mac and Bowles matter...and they both prefer Fitz.

[slats]

1 minute ago, 56mehl56 said:

Out of those only Bowles and Mac matter.  The players never had and never should have a say in roster determination. If that ever happened it would be time to fire them all.

For Mac, Fitz serves as the mentor for his hand-selected second round pick. For obvious reasons, the Jets prefer Fitz in a mentoring role. 

For Bowles, continuity is key. 

For both of them, it's the absolute safe play. If the team goes 7-9 with Geno as the starter, a large portion of the fan base will lose their crap over how it was all Geno's fault, and how they would've made the playoffs if Fitz was the starter. Same fans will shrug if the team goes 6-10 behind Fitz, fully believing that the team really did do all they could at the QB position to win this season. And this is probably the most important reason for both of them. Unfortunately, they have to think about their own job security and how it relates to fan backlash. 

[56mehl56]

1 minute ago, AFJF said:

I didn't mean they have (or should have) input on Fitz's place on the roster, but in terms of this months-long/never-ending debate about the two QB's...I would trust their assessment of the two QB's before anyone else.

So you're right...only the opinions of Mac and Bowles matter...and they both prefer Fitz.

At least that's what we're led to believe. I do know that Mac's preference comes with conditions meaning he will not overpay for what he truly feels is not a quality starting QB. As far as Bowles he's said in the past Fitz is the starter but he's also said the team can win with Geno at QB.

[AFJF]

7 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

At least that's what we're led to believe. I do know that Mac's preference comes with conditions meaning he will not overpay for what he truly feels is not a quality starting QB. As far as Bowles he's said in the past Fitz is the starter but he's also said the team can win with Geno at QB.

I don't believe he prefers Geno and is still offering Fitz more than any other team in the NFL.  That would be beyond idiotic.

Not overpaying is a condition that should apply to any player, not just Fitz, that's just spending wisely.  

Bowles has said many times that any player can win any job at any time.  Best player plays.  None of this is exclusive to Fitz, and tells us a lot about Geno never getting the job back after being cleared to play after week 2.  If he was the better player, Bowles wouldn't have benched him for 14 weeks.

[Big Blocker]

35 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

There's 11 years of evidence that Fitz is just a mediocre QB, there's 2+ years of Geno one in which he went 8-8 yet people have closed the book on Geno, it truly boggles the mind.

"closed the book" is not accurate as far as this non-Smith Fan is concerned.  I simply think the guy has too many issues to be able to overcome enough of them to become an acceptable Qb in the NFL.  The game does not slow down for him enough to read pass defense schemes.  He is poor in the pocket, not sensing pressure the way he should, and making poor choices under pressure.  He used to do better taking off, but opposing D's figured him out and his numbers dropped off there.  He's too careless with the football.  He too often looks like he forgets where he is on the field.  THen on the team leadership issues, he is one of the worst I've ever seen/heard about.  THe IK incident was emblematic of his problems here.  But overall he comes across as so immature and unaware that his timeline for ever getting better enough there is not reasonably going to match how much rope the Jets should give (have already given) him. 

The odds of him fixing one or two problem areas are not bad. The odds of him fixing enough, though, moves to the unlikely category enough so that it makes no sense to turn the team over to him in order to see if he can. 

I suppose that analysis might boggle someone's mind.  But it shouldn't if you want to be considered a reasonable person with a knowledge of the game.