Powpow Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 <iframe src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-W8JKW6" height="0" width="0" style="display:none;visibility:hidden"></iframe> Interesting article to say the least given our current state of affairs. NY Jets: Time for a Reset 0 unreads by John B Oct 21, 2016, 10:00a William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports It is very easy to get caught in the weeds because of how much outside noise there has been, but over the last four years the Jets have been attempting what amounts to a conventional rebuilding project. The first year was 2013. That was a year where the Jets decided to reset an ugly salary cap situation. They went into that season with a depleted roster. A year later, they spent in free agency to try and improve the roster but kept a lot of money in reserve. Then they bulked up on Draft picks. A year later, they maxed out in free agency. They brought in veterans right as those earlier Draft classes theoretically were supposed to be hitting maturity to perhaps send things into overdrive. This year there were some other tweaks. This is a fairly normal four year pattern. It just doesn't seem that way from up close. That first year was also a head coach's fifth year, and he was fighting for his job. That's usually the pattern at the end of one of these cycles, not the beginning. The Jets weren't supposed to be a very good team that first year. They really weren't. The team was constantly blown out and had one of the worst point differentials in the league. They just happened to win 8 games because they were opportunistic late in games and a little lucky. It didn't feel like that awful first year of a rebuild, but it was. Then by year three, there was a first year general manager and a first year head coach. It really was the middle of the cycle. The cycle did hit a snag by 2014. The bargain free agency expenditures proved widely ineffective outside of Eric Decker and did not do much to improve the roster, although it was obscured by over $20 million in salary cap space left in the bank. The early Draft returns were also not promising, leaving a longer timetable for the team to peak. The new general manager and head coach came in 2015 and inherited a cabinet almost as bare in young talent as it was in 2013. The timetable had to be pushed back a bit. The money was still there to spend immediately and upgrade the team immediately. By 2017, this regime's first Draft class would be hitting its third season, and second class would be hitting its second. Hopefully there would be ample star power to carry the load by then, and the free agent signings who would be aging could slide into supporting roles. We are now near 2017, and I am sure many of you will be unhappy with what I am about to say. The four year rebuild has not been a success. As with many teams, the new day that dawned in 2013 is seeing the sun set. It will require a new new day to get things right. I don't see a path forward for the Jets next year. Originally, the hope was that Mike Maccagnan's early Draft classes would be able to carry the load by 2017, and maybe John Idzik's classes would have some late bloomers. This is no longer anything the Jets can count on happening. If you look at the last four years of drafting, the Jets had a barren base of young talent. Right now, really the only pieces you can say they have added are Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Quincy Enunwa, a lot of maybe's, and a lot of guys who have failed their way off the team. The Jets do have some roster flexibility heading into the offseason. It's enough to replace some supporting pieces. That would be fine if there was star power on rookie contracts. There isn't. There isn't enough cap space to build a contender adding what current pieces will stay with what the Jets can buy. Even the cap room in 2015 wasn't enough to do this. The Jets can go all in, spend to the cap limit, and try to win next season. Likely their ceiling would be a Wild Card. Because of what I laid out, I don't think it was necessarily a big mistake to spend in 2015. I do think it would be a mistake for the Jets to go all in for 2017. Sometimes you have to take a step back to take two steps forward. I regret to say this because it isn't a good place to be after four years, but I think the Jets are in need of another reset. All cap space not spent one year can be carried over to the next year. If the team is not on a championship trajectory, does it not make more sense to carry money over rather than futilely go all-in? Maybe you felt that way about 2015 and 2016. I'm not sure I did. I think you could make a case either way. If you did feel that way, I'm ready for a truce. 2017 will not be the time for this team to go all in. It will be a time for this team to step back and replenish its cap space. That is going to mean finding cheap replacements who likely won't be good, and the team's short-term record will suffer. I think it might even be time to cut ties with some long-time veterans if they will not be part of the roster by the time 2019 rolls around. Saving the cap space would make sense in such a situation. By letting players go, the Jets would put themselves into a position to collect extra compensatory Draft picks. They are needed. As always, the plan needs to be to find a core of young star talent. The only way to do that is through the Draft. The best way to Draft well is to have as many picks as possible. It gives you a bigger margin for error. Is it easier to find four players if you have six picks or twelve picks? The Jets should also have an instinct to trade down first. Mike Maccagnan has made major investments in the team's college scouting, but having six player Draft classes hasn't given his people enough of an opportunity to find talent. Philosophically, this is something that needs to change. I like the fact that Maccagnan is into studies of how teams succeed such as the examination the Jets did on how the Steelers frequently draft outside linebacker. I would like to see the Jets invest more in a research and development department to use analytics and studies to spot trends and best practices. But this approach would not be for the feint of heart. Fans want results. Essentially starting over with a clean slate for a regime in its third year would not go over well, particularly for a fanbase that will be six years removed from an accomplishment as modest as making the Playoffs. Should there be a regime change? I think that is easier said in theory than done in practice. There are many reasons against doing so. This team just fired a general manager after two years. Getting rid of the general manager would mean a second straight time you have fired one after two years. Getting rid of the head coach would be the second time in three head coaches a change was made in three years or less. There are many problems with this, not the least of which is it would likely cost the team any chance of landing the top tier of replacements. If you had options, would you go to a team so inclined to make changes so early? Two years ago, the owner of this team sat down with experienced and successful executives in this league and bought into a vision with a general manager and a head coach who were deemed to have the attributes necessary to build something. He went in knowing there would be difficult times on this journey. There will need to be a discussion. The general manager needs to adapt better practices to get a larger Draft haul. The head coach needs to do a lot better in many areas. This won't go over well with a large portion of the fanbase, but many people do learn and get better on the job. Sometimes you need to make mistakes to learn. Sometimes firing somebody for making mistakes means bringing in somebody new who will make the same mistakes. There are instances were the old guy would have learned from them. Any owner following this plan is going to take heat, though. It will mean the Playoff drought will likely be extended all the way to eight or nine years, and that's if the team actually gets it right. He will have to take it on the chin from angry fans and media about why expectations are reset three years in for his braintrust. And if these guys don't get better, he will be responsible. The problem is that any path forward involving going all in for 2017 is likely to face narrow odds. The Jets would either need to get very lucky at the quarterback position, young players would have to improve at a shocking rate, free agents would need to be grand slams, or likely all of the above. A day of reckoning is likely to come, at which point the Jets will have to reset again. The only question is whether they get the ball rolling down or put it off. I don't expect any of this to actually happen. I don't think the man in charge of this team will have the stomach to go out on a limb. People may or may not be fired, but they will be on notice that things need to turn around immediately. This will likely lead to more spending for immediate gain. Perhaps to save jobs, part of future cap space and picks will be sacrificed to help the team in the present, digging the hole even deeper at the future day of reckoning. Maybe a big name quarterback like Drew Brees, Jay Cutler or Tony Romo will come in to try and spark life in the short run. There might even be some modest success and the end of the Playoff drought. I don't think it will produce a champion or a perennial contender, though, and that is the real goal. Eventually the bill will come due, and the team that passes up rebuilding on its own terms will be forced into it. I am sorry to lay out such a depressing vision, but I think we have reached a crossroads. There is no way to stay on the current path and reach the intended destination. This team has an opportunity to gracefully reset and start the clock on a play that at least has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRONX DUDE Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 meh meh and more meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varjet Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 I posted this article from GangGreen Nation. Its author was John B, which attracted some derision. It appears that John B's real name is William Mauser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 So a draft plan that would help is to get lots of extra picks. All,they need to do is have Macc snap his fingers and poof, extra picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powpow Posted October 23, 2016 Author Share Posted October 23, 2016 2 hours ago, Jet Nut said: So a draft plan that would help is to get lots of extra picks. All,they need to do is have Macc snap his fingers and poof, extra picks? At the rate we're going a top 5 pick isn't out of the question. We could trade down in that scenario. There's also the possibility of trading some players for picks and not resigning others and getting comp picks. Of course, Mac would have to start hitting on these draft picks. Would he forego this strategy if a QB to his liking is there? I don't think he takes a QB early and will stick with Petty and Hack. And yes you're a fan longer. I don't remember them playing as the Titans before Shea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powpow Posted October 23, 2016 Author Share Posted October 23, 2016 8 hours ago, varjet said: I posted this article from GangGreen Nation. Its author was John B, which attracted some derision. It appears that John B's real name is William Mauser. I figured someone might have but couldn't find it. Lot of food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Powpow said: At the rate we're going a top 5 pick isn't out of the question. We could trade down in that scenario. There's also the possibility of trading some players for picks and not resigning others and getting comp picks. Of course, Mac would have to start hitting on these draft picks. Would he forego this strategy if a QB to his liking is there? I don't think he takes a QB early and will stick with Petty and Hack. And yes you're a fan longer. I don't remember them playing as the Titans before Shea. We're not getting a top 5 pick. We're going into the easy stretch of the schedule. Can't believe with this roster we can't get enough QB play andmthe defense wont step up enough to win some games that we should win Point isn't that it's hard to understand how you could grab extra picks, you have to a trading partner. If no one is in the market for a DL how are you trading one for picks? BTW, makes no difference to me how long someone was a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powpow Posted October 23, 2016 Author Share Posted October 23, 2016 2 hours ago, Jet Nut said: We're not getting a top 5 pick. We're going into the easy stretch of the schedule. Can't believe with this roster we can't get enough QB play andmthe defense wont step up enough to win some games that we should win Point isn't that it's hard to understand how you could grab extra picks, you have to a trading partner. If no one is in the market for a DL how are you trading one for picks? BTW, makes no difference to me how long someone was a fan. Right now we're tied for pick 2 and having been laying eggs so top 5 isn't out the question. Sheldon would garner something and he's going to want to get paid big bucks. Would be our best option to unload him and cut the fat. I think it's pretty cool you went to see Jets in their inception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ex-Rex Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 14 hours ago, Powpow said: Getting rid of the general manager would mean a second straight time you have fired one after two years. Getting rid of the head coach would be the second time in three head coaches a change was made in three years or less. I don't think Mac is the problem. Bowles is a problem but he might learn from his mistakes. I think he needs to reshape his staff though. Gailey can't improvise as well anymore and the team made a big mistake getting rid of their best blocking TE - Sudfeld, and FB Tommy Bohannon. Matt Forte is not a bulldozer like Ivory was and he needs a lead blocker. Kacy Rodgers is in over his head at DC and Bowles needs to either take over the defensive play calling or let Rodgers do his job. Splitting the calls like Bowles admits they do is probably why the Jets have so many mental mistakes. I do think Woody Johnson needs to step back and let his guys (especially Mac) do their job and not try to be "competitive" while rebuilding. Just rebuild it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 8 hours ago, Jet Nut said: So a draft plan that would help is to get lots of extra picks. All,they need to do is have Macc snap his fingers and poof, extra picks? Lol. He did a poof to make so many disappear already. Ridiculous that he's to be graded on this with a clean slate after he pissed away so many picks himself. His time did not just begin today. His clean slate was 2015, not 2017. We'd have had another 4-5 picks in this upcoming draft alone if he'd exercised the patience it takes to build a sustained roster built through the draft instead of 30-something veteran bandaids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said: Lol. He did a poof to make so many disappear already. Ridiculous that he's to be graded on this with a clean slate after he pissed away so many picks himself. His time did not just begin today. His clean slate was 2015, not 2017. We'd have had another 4-5 picks in this upcoming draft alone if he'd exercised the patience it takes to build a sustained roster built through the draft instead of 30-something veteran bandaids. If he had exercised said patience, he knew he would be out the door like Idzik. I don't know how many times I've said this, but it's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 16 minutes ago, Ex-Rex said: I don't think Mac is the problem. Bowles is a problem but he might learn from his mistakes. I think he needs to reshape his staff though. Gailey can't improvise as well anymore and the team made a big mistake getting rid of their best blocking TE - Sudfeld, and FB Tommy Bohannon. Matt Forte is not a bulldozer like Ivory was and he needs a lead blocker. Kacy Rodgers is in over his head at DC and Bowles needs to either take over the defensive play calling or let Rodgers do his job. Splitting the calls like Bowles admits they do is probably why the Jets have so many mental mistakes. I do think Woody Johnson needs to step back and let his guys (especially Mac) do their job and not try to be "competitive" while rebuilding. Just rebuild it right. I have no love for Woody Johnson, but there is no evidence he is overruling Maccagnan and telling him how to do his job. None. Seems to me many want to credit Maccagnan for anything done well, but absolve him, and baselessly shift blame to someone else, for anything done poorly. Convenient position to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, UnitedWhofans said: If he had exercised said patience, he knew he would be out the door like Idzik. I don't know how many times I've said this, but it's true Move to St. Louis and wait for us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said: I have no love for Woody Johnson, but there is no evidence he is overruling Maccagnan and telling him how to do his job. None. Seems to me many want to credit Maccagnan for anything done well, but absolve him, and baselessly shift blame to someone else, for anything done poorly. Convenient position to take. I didn't say that. I understand why he signed those veterans. If you want a full rebuild, then it is the wrong move. But, full rebuilds are essentially verboten in New York. The only move that I really question Macc on is drafting Hackenberg that high. All the other supposed mistakes he's made are hindsight mistakes. The Mets did it because they had no money to spend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, UnitedWhofans said: I didn't say that. I understand why he signed those veterans. If you want a full rebuild, then it is the wrong move. But, full rebuilds are essentially verboten in New York. The Mets did it because they had no money to spend Ohhhhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, Sperm Edwards said: Ohhhhhhh. Look at the Yankees right now. You dont see them in full rebuild mode, do you? The Mets did it because the Wilpons got conned by Madoff and they had no choice. Mock me all you want, but it's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, UnitedWhofans said: Look at the Yankees right now. You dont see them in full rebuild mode, do you? Who cares? Baseball sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, Sperm Edwards said: Who cares? Baseball sucks. When was the last time a New York team besides the Mets recently went into a full rebuild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, UnitedWhofans said: When was the last time a New York team besides the Mets recently went into a full rebuild? Lol A farm system, no franchise tags, and disproportionate annual spending ability compared to dozens of their peers say Mets/Yankees baseball is apples and oranges to the Jets football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, Sperm Edwards said: Lol A farm system, no franchise tags, and disproportionate annual spending ability compared to dozens of their peers say Mets/Yankees baseball is apples and oranges to the Jets football. Ok, go look at the Knicks, they do have a salary cap. And I ask the same question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, UnitedWhofans said: Ok, go look at the Knicks, they do have a salary cap. And I ask the same question You go look at them. Apples are still not oranges because you now point to pears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 10 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said: Look at the Yankees right now. You dont see them in full rebuild mode, do you? Um. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 8 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said: Ok, go look at the Knicks, they do have a salary cap. And I ask the same question The Knicks do the same dumb sh*t the Jets do with the same dumbsh*t results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said: The Knicks do the same dumb sh*t the Jets do with the same dumbsh*t results. And why do you think they do that? Why do you think Dolan or Johnson wouldnt resort to full rebuilds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said: The Knicks do the same dumb sh*t the Jets do with the same dumbsh*t results. Tag. You're it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 1 minute ago, UnitedWhofans said: And why do you think they do that? Why do you think Dolan or Johnson wouldnt resort to full rebuilds? Because you guys are awful? There really isn't any such thing as a full reset. The next time something comes up, you do the right thing instead of the Jetsy thing. Then you do it again. That's it. Whenever the Jets start a new 'rebuild' all it ever amounts to is some big dramatic jerky thing followed by more of the same old screwing up the mundane stuff. Trade Abraham and derp. Draft Sanchez, derp some more. Trade Revis and derp. Sign Revis and derp. It never ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said: Because you guys are awful? There really isn't any such thing as a full reset. The next time something comes up, you do the right thing instead of the Jetsy thing. Then you do it again. That's it. Whenever the Jets start a new 'rebuild' all it ever amounts to is some big dramatic jerky thing followed by more of the same old screwing up the mundane stuff. Trade Abraham and derp. Draft Sanchez, derp some more. Trade Revis and derp. Sign Revis and derp. It never ends. Because they never give it enough time to grow. Rebuilds are a 3-5 year process. Jets only give 2 years Look at Dallas. Bottomed out in 1989 intentionally, Got to the Super Bowl in 1992. Took 4 years to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Two things about this article. 1. Doesnt take into account UDFAs, which so far Macc has been okay at. 2. Tanny used to have 3 and 4 draft classes. I would rather have 6 over 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 6 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said: Two things about this article. 1. Doesnt take into account UDFAs, which so far Macc has been okay at. 2. Tanny used to have 3 and 4 draft classes. I would rather have 6 over 3 and 4. So between the other reset thread and this one, the case for Maccagnan is: 1) the sh*tty contracts he's done won't last forever, so 2) when they expire we can use the money to do more, 3) Robby Anderson, and 4) successfully exercised almost 7 picks per draft. He's certainly a genius at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, Miss Lonelyhearts said: So between the other reset thread and this one, the case for Maccagnan is: 1) the sh*tty contracts he's done won't last forever, so 2) when they expire we can use the money to do more, 3) Robby Anderson, and 4) successfully exercised almost 7 picks per draft. He's certainly a genius at something. Almost. 1. The hindsight sh*tty contracts he's done were intentionally made short term so as not to disrupt the future 2. Yes 3. Jalin Marshall has promise as well. Need to do what was done to Tiki Barber and stop fumbling. 4. His 2 seventh round draft picks have already made contributions on the field this year. You know how rare that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 1 hour ago, UnitedWhofans said: Almost. 1. The hindsight sh*tty contracts he's done were intentionally made short term so as not to disrupt the future 2. Yes 3. Jalin Marshall has promise as well. Need to do what was done to Tiki Barber and stop fumbling. 4. His 2 seventh round draft picks have already made contributions on the field this year. You know how rare that is? Can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 6 hours ago, Powpow said: Right now we're tied for pick 2 and having been laying eggs so top 5 isn't out the question. Sheldon would garner something and he's going to want to get paid big bucks. Would be our best option to unload him and cut the fat. I think it's pretty cool you went to see Jets in their inception. Again, if anyone is in the market for a player like Sheldon and is willing to take on the contract. i was a kid for those early games. Yale Bowl etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powpow Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/23/2016 at 3:33 PM, Jet Nut said: Again, if anyone is in the market for a player like Sheldon and is willing to take on the contract. i was a kid for those early games. Yale Bowl etc. that's too cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.