Brian Winters Receives a 4 Year Contract Extension

[Sperm Edwards]

14 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Love the idea that all a GM has to do is call an agent or player and tell him that the team would like to extend him early at a discounted rate and that the player will jump to sign.  No way his agent would advise him to wait for his play to improve and to wait for a better deal a year down the road....nah 

What you, and others, proclaim to be fantasy is actually the norm. What Maccagnan is doing is the exception to the norm. 

How many young starting guards even near this $ range - the ones that the original team decided to retain - were re-signed after their last game (on the prior contract) had been played? Just 3, and one of them was Incognito who was an obviously unique situation. So, 2 really. Typically those re-signed are extended before, or early into, that final season.

Agents know players can have bad seasons or injury in their contract years and advise to take guaranteed money when it's offered. Even more so for a guard like Winters, who could have played out the 2016 season as a backup again.

So apparently the belief is that only Jets' young players refuse to do this because they are uniquely averse to getting guaranteed money earlier rather than later. 

Is this the case, or is everyone suspecting so just simply wrong?

[20andOut]

10 hours ago, dbatesman said:

 

I will pay one dollar to anyone who can explain, in specific terms, how Mike Maccagnan is any different from Mike Tannenbaum.

 

Maccagnan trying to build through draft, Tanny always looked for the big splash, high risk move.

[whodeawhodat]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

What you, and others, proclaim to be fantasy is actually the norm. What Maccagnan is doing is the exception to the norm. 

How many young starting guards even near this $ range - the ones that the original team decided to retain - were re-signed after their last game (on the prior contract) had been played? Just 3, and one of them was Incognito who was an obviously unique situation. So, 2 really. Typically those re-signed are extended before, or early into, that final season.

Agents know players can have bad seasons or injury in their contract years and advise to take guaranteed money when it's offered. Even more so for a guard like Winters, who could have played out the 2016 season as a backup again.

So apparently the belief is that only Jets' young players refuse to do this because they are uniquely averse to getting guaranteed money earlier rather than later. 

Is this the case, or is everyone suspecting so just simply wrong?

The main thing you refuse to acknowledge is that he didnt play great or even above avg when he filled in for Colon.  he was the definition of a JAG that year.  Maybe it was the move from the right side that took him time to get used to, idk.  either way, you nor anyone else on this board was pounding the table to get this guy locked up long term coming up on the final year of his contract.

[dbatesman]

33 minutes ago, 20andOut said:

Maccagnan trying to build through draft, Tanny always looked for the big splash, high risk move.

Makes sense, thanks

[chirorob]

18 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Love the idea that all a GM has to do is call an agent or player and tell him that the team would like to extend him early at a discounted rate and that the player will jump to sign.  No way his agent would advise him to wait for his play to improve and to wait for a better deal a year down the road....nah 

Exactly.

"Hey, we want you to take a discount!"

"Ummm, ok.   Are we a perennial playoff team?   Do you even know who the offensive co-ordinator is this year?   How about who is the head coach after next season?"

 

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

What you, and others, proclaim to be fantasy is actually the norm. What Maccagnan is doing is the exception to the norm. 

How many young starting guards even near this $ range - the ones that the original team decided to retain - were re-signed after their last game (on the prior contract) had been played? Just 3, and one of them was Incognito who was an obviously unique situation. So, 2 really. Typically those re-signed are extended before, or early into, that final season.

Agents know players can have bad seasons or injury in their contract years and advise to take guaranteed money when it's offered. Even more so for a guard like Winters, who could have played out the 2016 season as a backup again.

So apparently the belief is that only Jets' young players refuse to do this because they are uniquely averse to getting guaranteed money earlier rather than later. 

Is this the case, or is everyone suspecting so just simply wrong?

Every player is different.  For all the fantasy talk if his agent would have told him to sign an extension a year ago he would have done his client a huge disservice.  

I never said this should always be the plan.  I was referring to a player who hadn't reached his potential and had a year left 

[Dcat]

3 hours ago, whodeawhodat said:

The main thing you refuse to acknowledge is that he didnt play great or even above avg when he filled in for Colon.  he was the definition of a JAG that year.  Maybe it was the move from the right side that took him time to get used to, idk.  either way, you nor anyone else on this board was pounding the table to get this guy locked up long term coming up on the final year of his contract.

shhhh... you are ruining the use of hindsight to prove one's position is right.  

Hindsight is the primary mode of persuasion on this message board.  We are all so very good at it.  This thread demonstrates it aptly.  

[LionelRichie]

2 hours ago, chirorob said:

Exactly.

"Hey, we want you to take a discount!"

"Ummm, ok.   Are we a perennial playoff team?   Do you even know who the offensive co-ordinator is this year?   How about who is the head coach after next season?"

 

not exactly.  

There is a risk premium that needs to be built into any negotiation.  In the Winters example  - what is the amt of guaranteed $ he would have taken last summer to avoid the risk (preseason + 16 games + practices) of an acl or achilles tear or back/neck injury?    

If winters blew an ACL (which he has already done once) his value goes from 7M/yr w/15 guaranteed to $2M with no guarantees.  That "bird in the hand" is the leverage that Macc has in any negotiation that happens b/f the season starts.  

Sperm's point is that Macc has additional leverage in the fact that he could also put winters on the bench which would further erode his FA value.   While I think the latter would be short-sighted and bad faith negotiation the implied possibility should add to the "resign early" discount.       

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Every player is different.  For all the fantasy talk if his agent would have told him to sign an extension a year ago he would have done his client a huge disservice.  

I never said this should always be the plan.  I was referring to a player who hadn't reached his potential and had a year left 

January 5, 2016

"Here is our (3 year) extension offer, after which you'll be a UFA while still at a young age 28, or we renegotiate for another extension a year before that, at age 27.

The alternative for you:

• We sign Osemele or someone else to start for us in '16 -->
• You spend your last year here as a backup -->
• Then you have to sign a 1-2 yr show-me deal with someone else, also for low dollars -->
• Then then IF you have a good (and injury-free) season -->
• And IF you don't get beaten out by a better player for the starting job before that -->
• Then your best case scenario upside is finally/hopefully cashing in 2 years from now, IF everything goes your way on your show-me contract. 

A 3rd rounder, who hasn't cashed in at all yet, isn't going to want to potentially wait until his 6th-7th season to see some real money. That's why players do sign early when something attractive is offered, even when it isn't a top 10 offer. Particularly when the team has huge leverage over a player, like Maccagnan/Davidson had and threw away.

[chirorob]

2 hours ago, LionelRichie said:

not exactly.  

There is a risk premium that needs to be built into any negotiation.  In the Winters example  - what is the amt of guaranteed $ he would have taken last summer to avoid the risk (preseason + 16 games + practices) of an acl or achilles tear or back/neck injury?    

If winters blew an ACL (which he has already done once) his value goes from 7M/yr w/15 guaranteed to $2M with no guarantees.  That "bird in the hand" is the leverage that Macc has in any negotiation that happens b/f the season starts.  

Sperm's point is that Macc has additional leverage in the fact that he could also put winters on the bench which would further erode his FA value.   While I think the latter would be short-sighted and bad faith negotiation the implied possibility should add to the "resign early" discount.       

oh, I would have signed him last year.   I thought he was improving, and could have been had for much less, like, good back up type money.

I don't think he's worth 7 million a year, but I'm not the GM

[CanadaSteve]

16 hours ago, LionelRichie said:

So you are saying that winters took less to stay with the Jets?    Why would he do he or his agent do that?   

What do you think winters would have received on the open market?  

My guess is that his agent used FA as a baseline to establish a market value for this contract.   It's certainly not less than he expected to get in FA and is likely closer to the max he expected.    Macc gave up all leverage once the season ended so while winters was not technically a FA, his FA was implied and baked into the contract  

 

We shall agree to disagree....I have no problem with the signing until I see the FULL details of how the contract plays out.  We get him for a couple of years at $7-8 million, draft a guy in the next year or two, and then cut him when the contract spikes, great.  But again, until all the details come out, I withhold full judgement and the cat call to axe Mac.

[CanadaSteve]

10 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

January 5, 2016

"Here is our (3 year) extension offer, after which you'll be a UFA while still at a young age 28, or we renegotiate for another extension a year before that, at age 27.

The alternative for you:

• We sign Osemele or someone else to start for us in '16 -->
• You spend your last year here as a backup -->
• Then you have to sign a 1-2 yr show-me deal with someone else, also for low dollars -->
• Then then IF you have a good (and injury-free) season -->
• And IF you don't get beaten out by a better player for the starting job before that -->
• Then your best case scenario upside is finally/hopefully cashing in 2 years from now, IF everything goes your way on your show-me contract. 

A 3rd rounder, who hasn't cashed in at all yet, isn't going to want to potentially wait until his 6th-7th season to see some real money. That's why players do sign early when something attractive is offered, even when it isn't a top 10 offer. Particularly when the team has huge leverage over a player, like Maccagnan/Davidson had and threw away.

Again, without actually, you know, knowing any of this first hand, Mac might have been waiting one more year to see if he was worth extending.  Imagine if we handed him this contact last year.  People would have lost their sh*t.  Now, it seems that things are coming together for Winters.  He has to have SOMEONE play the position, and given the lack of prospects in the draft, and what the better guys are going to get, this is about right.

And we can't say if he knew the prospects pool would be thin this year, he should have signed him last year.  He didn't know the prospects were going to be this thin until the college season played out.

 

[Sperm Edwards]

8 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Again, without actually, you know, knowing any of this first hand, Mac might have been waiting one more year to see if he was worth extending.  Imagine if we handed him this contact last year.  People would have lost their sh*t.  Now, it seems that things are coming together for Winters.  He has to have SOMEONE play the position, and given the lack of prospects in the draft, and what the better guys are going to get, this is about right.

And we can't say if he knew the prospects pool would be thin this year, he should have signed him last year.  He didn't know the prospects were going to be this thin until the college season played out.

 

The very point is one does not hand him this contract last year. One offers him a lesser one. They see these players up close, for more than just 30 minutes of game clock a week. Hey are therefore expected to know what they've got better than those of us armed with only our TV sets.

One would have been folly to tell the ancient Greeks that they were wrong about their gods. There is little one could have done against such blind faith, as here will always be the rationalization of challenging the disbeliever to prove a negative ("Well how do you know for a fact that there is no Zeus?"). All one could have done is show them that to which they have willfully shut their eyes, with the hope they'd see the true proverbial light: that their false gods are merely that. In case my dripping metaphor isn't obvious, you are praying to one here.

It is ridiculous to point at the disadvantageous situations he's been, while willfully ignoring that he put himself into these very situations in the first place. 

[Flushing Roots]

On January 17, 2017 at 10:23 PM, dbatesman said:

I will pay one dollar to anyone who can explain, in specific terms, how Mike Maccagnan is any different from Mike Tannenbaum.

Maccagnan drinks a sh*t load more coffee.