Daniel Jeremiah's Top 50

[varjet]

Thoughts on Pick 6:

• In most scenarios, the Jets can select a predicted star at a position which also allows them to cut a declining veteran, which, because of the rookie salary scale, results in huge savings:
  • WR-cut Marshall and/or Decker (draft Williams)
  • S-cut Gilcrist and/or trade Pryor (draft Hooker or Adams)
  • CB-Revis (see below) (draft Tabor)
  • ILB-cut Harris short (draft Foster)
• Drafting a RB, OL or QB is cap negative, likely.
  • A OL could fill an opening day need.
  • A RB would share carries to 2 already on the roster (could consider just cutting Forte lose)
  • A QB from this group is unlikely to start Day 10
• These ratings are based on overall player ratings.  That does not mean that the LTs and QBs will be picked higher.  The Jets are still looking at picking a QB potentially.  Such is the price you pay for not having one.
• Vis a vis Revis-my suggestions are:
  • Offer him $7.5mm to play CB2.  He is owed $7mm anyway, and another team only has to pay him $1mm which is offset.  So $7.5mm means Revis makes a bit more than he would if the Jets cut him outright.  Hopefully he has some pride and loyalty to make it up to the Jets and also to build his resume for 2018 and maybe beyond.
  • I would play a S conversion by ear, but he did not look like a potential safety.
  • Given that the Jets are out $7mm anyway, I think there is a decent shot that does come back, but if he does not, make him one of the last cuts and let him find another team in September.
  • So, generally, I think there are ways to give Revis a chance and motivate him, but I would not give him alot of wiggle room.

[UnitedWhofans]

56 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

As is safety, RB, ILB.

 

Well, you have the standouts.

Elliot-RB

Keuchly, ILB

Earl Thomas and Eric Berry at safety

These were all drafted top ten. It really depends on what is there

[CotcheryifyouCan]

very surprised mike williams isnt his top rated wr.

[Joe W. Namath]

According to this list, the Jets will have a chance to take the best offensive player in this draft.  

This offense is desparate for a playmaker and we can take the top 1 at 6. 

You find the best offensive weapon at take him at 6.  Enough with the defense.

[NYDreamer]

I'd be good with this kid:  

 

Ryan Ramczyk - OT, Wisconsin

[Tinstar]

3 minutes ago, NYDreamer said:

I'd be good with this kid:  

 

Ryan Ramczyk - OT, Wisconsin

+1

[TuscanyTile2]

6 hours ago, KRL said:

An early list of his top 50 players, it seems like there's a ton of secondary talent available:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000775479/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2017-nfl-draft

Thanks for posting this!

[Dinamite]

Outside of Myles Garret is there an agreement on the top 4-5 players in this draft? There usually seems to be a set of players that are referred to as blue chippers that mostly get listed in the top 5 or so.   It seems this year there is a lot more variability.

[win4ever]

7 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

i just don't think revis will factor into whether they take hooker or a cb in the first round.  mccags took williams when he had wilk and sheldon, so he's already shown he wants to go bap, at least in the first round.

i hope he's watching these playoffs and watching all the offense, the stud rbs, wrs, etc.  he's got to add elite talent on that side of the ball at some point, and while he's drafting qb prospects he should also be taking skill positions.  it wouldn't hurt if he took a TE too in the first few rounds.  

I think that might not be the case for a couple of reasons.  A) Mac had years on his side for the Williams pick.  As a new hire, he basically had three years to be proven right about that pick.  He no longer has that luxury, thus he doesn't have the luxury of ignoring holes for the sake of BPA.  If he drafts Hooker (hypothetically) AND Revis moves to FS, then they have millions of dollars and a high first round pick tied to a rotation at FS.  If one moves to SS, then they are playing out of position now.  I don't think he can afford to allocate that type of resources into one position.  B- It hasn't worked out for the Jets even after Williams turns into a Pro-Bowl caliber player.  Now we face a log jam on the defensive line that hasn't been fixed yet, and might force us to sell Richardson below value because he's not producing in this system.  I think the impact of Revis is extremely large on this draft because it's a big year for Macc and Bowles.  Another 4-12 type season, and they are both unemployed

I really want him to go offense this year, but this just doesn't seem the right spot or draft to do it.  Next year's class is loaded (especially now Josh Allen went back as well) at QB, so I don't think they take the plunge on QB.  At 6, to take a QB, there are inherent risks.  If Watson (or anyone else for that matter) blows them away, chances are he has blown away five teams ahead of us as well, so either he gets picked ahead or there might be questions marks involved.  I would love a receiver like Mike Williams, but WR is probably the deepest position we have right now.  At 6, any offensive lineman is a reach in this draft, so it would involve a trade down. 

Considering the depth of this draft, I think the Jets should go secondary (S or CB based on Revis), OT/OL, CB, RB in the first four rounds this year.  The defensive backs are horrible, and they really need to fix it.  It's not ideal, but to me, this looks like a rebuild unless they get extremely lucky with bounce back seasons from Revis/Mo/Marshall, good signings on the OL, and progression from some QB.  

[maury77]

1) Unless Revis agrees to come back next year at 6 million dollars (which I can't imagine him agreeing to as money hungry as he has been throughout his entire career), the Jets need to move on. The dead money is a killer, but it's even worse paying 15 million dollars a year to a #2 (at best) CB. I'm also not paying Revis 8 figures to see if he can work out at safety. He would be the highest paid safety in the league and we have no idea if he would be any good at it. His general lack of disinterest  in tackling this year leads me to believe safety won't be a good fit. In a perfect world, Revis would agree to play for 6 million, we would cut Skrine and sign a free agent.

2) I like to follow Daniel Jeremiah for draft news. Unlike most social media draft guys, Jeremiah actually worked as an NFL scout.

[Tinstar]

10 hours ago, Dinamite said:

Outside of Myles Garret is there an agreement on the top 4-5 players in this draft? There usually seems to be a set of players that are referred to as blue chippers that mostly get listed in the top 5 or so.   It seems this year there is a lot more variability.

No there is not . It will all depend on who you like based on what you need . It's a passing league, and good safeties are almost as important as good Corners . This is going to be an interesting Draft .

[Augustiniak]

8 hours ago, win4ever said:

I really want him to go offense this year, but this just doesn't seem the right spot or draft to do it.  Next year's class is loaded (especially now Josh Allen went back as well) at QB, so I don't think they take the plunge on QB.  At 6, to take a QB, there are inherent risks.  If Watson (or anyone else for that matter) blows them away, chances are he has blown away five teams ahead of us as well, so either he gets picked ahead or there might be questions marks involved.  I would love a receiver like Mike Williams, but WR is probably the deepest position we have right now.  At 6, any offensive lineman is a reach in this draft, so it would involve a trade down. 

at this point i don't think mccags has the luxury of thinking about next year.  the only teams that scored fewer points than the jets this season were cleveland and the rams.  worse, while the jets could only score 224 points, there were 9 teams above 400 points, and 2 teams at 399.  

there are defensive players the jets could take at #6 that would make the secondary better.  but at what point does this franchise finally commit top draft picks and big FA money to the offense?  instead of taking a safety, why not take a guy like cook who immediately makes opposing defenses scheme for him b/c the guy is a major threat?  if you want to help the defense, why not give the offense a guy who can move the chains?  then maybe one of these qbs will be able to pad stats with more screens, and guys like devin smith and robbie anderson can stretch the field.  the entire philosophy of beefing up the defense with top picks year after year does not work.  this team is incredibly unbalanced in terms of how it allocates draft collateral and where it spends money in FA.  revis/wilk/sheldon/williams/pryor/lee are all first round picks.  the only 1st round pick on offense is an aging center who got hurt and the running game actually improved in his absence.  devin smith and hack are 2nd rounders.  winters is a 3rd rounder.  most other players on offense are imports - marshall, decker, clady, giocomini, carpenter, ijalana, jenkins, forte, fitz.  nearly the entire starting offense at the beginning of the season was imported. 

finally, from an entertainment standpoint, the team is once again unwatchable.  they need to bring in exciting guys on offense.  i'd rather lose 27-20 than 20-9.  this team needs a philosophical change where someone in the organization puts offense ahead of defense, in an era where you can't touch the qb or the wr.

[cant wait]

34 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

at this point i don't think mccags has the luxury of thinking about next year.  the only teams that scored fewer points than the jets this season were cleveland and the rams.  worse, while the jets could only score 224 points, there were 9 teams above 400 points, and 2 teams at 399.  

there are defensive players the jets could take at #6 that would make the secondary better.  but at what point does this franchise finally commit top draft picks and big FA money to the offense?  instead of taking a safety, why not take a guy like cook who immediately makes opposing defenses scheme for him b/c the guy is a major threat?  if you want to help the defense, why not give the offense a guy who can move the chains?  then maybe one of these qbs will be able to pad stats with more screens, and guys like devin smith and robbie anderson can stretch the field.  the entire philosophy of beefing up the defense with top picks year after year does not work.  this team is incredibly unbalanced in terms of how it allocates draft collateral and where it spends money in FA.  revis/wilk/sheldon/williams/pryor/lee are all first round picks.  the only 1st round pick on offense is an aging center who got hurt and the running game actually improved in his absence.  devin smith and hack are 2nd rounders.  winters is a 3rd rounder.  most other players on offense are imports - marshall, decker, clady, giocomini, carpenter, ijalana, jenkins, forte, fitz.  nearly the entire starting offense at the beginning of the season was imported. 

finally, from an entertainment standpoint, the team is once again unwatchable.  they need to bring in exciting guys on offense.  i'd rather lose 27-20 than 20-9.  this team needs a philosophical change where someone in the organization puts offense ahead of defense, in an era where you can't touch the qb or the wr.

Best player available. Picking offense for the sake of picking offense is how lousy teams stay lousy

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, cant wait said:

Best player available. Picking offense for the sake of picking offense is how lousy teams stay lousy

so does picking defense.  and you can't score when you keep picking defense.

[cant wait]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

so does picking defense.  and you can't score when you keep picking defense.

I'm not the one saying the team needs to ignore the talent level of the available prospects and instead draft some unknown offensive position in order to make me feel better

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, cant wait said:

I'm not the one saying the team needs to ignore the talent level of the available prospects and instead draft some unknown offensive position in order to make me feel better

i hear you, but when they took coples over decastro, that's a great example of favoring one side over the other.  at some point these 50/50 decisions need to be for the offense.  evaluations are subjective, let's score some points for a change.

[JoJoTownsell1]

11 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

so does picking defense.  and you can't score when you keep picking defense.

Our offense has talent. Powell ran as well as guy who was drafted in the 1st round. The WRs are good enough. We could use a pick on the OL but this is not a great draft for OL in the top 6. The only player we should reach for is a QB if we  think that QB has potential to be a franchise QB. But I would never reach for a guy on offense simply because we want to be explosive on offense. 

I am not opposed to going after Fournette/Cook or Williams/Davis or even Cam Robinson if our scouts think he will be a stud. But I am not in favor of passing on the next Leonard williams to draft a player we aren't as high on. 

[Augustiniak]

3 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Our offense has talent. Powell ran as well as guy who was drafted in the 1st round. The WRs are good enough. We could use a pick on the OL but this is not a great draft for OL in the top 6. The only player we should reach for is a QB if we  think that QB has potential to be a franchise QB. But I would never reach for a guy on offense simply because we want to be explosive on offense. 

I am not opposed to going after Fournette/Cook or Williams/Davis or even Cam Robinson if our scouts think he will be a stud. But I am not in favor of passing on the next Leonard williams to draft a player we aren't as high on. 

powell is one guy, he gets hurt, you need several rbs.  the wrs are not good enough.  marshall is probably gone, decker is coming off 2 major surgeries.  they could always use another wr, as jalin/robbie marshall/devin smith are still relative unknowns.  if this team is ever going to compete for the division title, they need to be able to score and control the clock better, which starts with improving the running game.  my uninformed guess is that at #6, the offensive and defensive options are probably going to have similar grades.

[cant wait]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

i hear you, but when they took coples over decastro, that's a great example of favoring one side over the other.  at some point these 50/50 decisions need to be for the offense.  evaluations are subjective, let's score some points for a change.

If it's a 50/50 decision I'd probably lean offense right now too but the truth is this team desperately needs top talent in almost every area, and with the lack of really high end OL prospects in this class I just want the team to take the best playmaker available on either side of the ball. Eliminating half of the available talent right off the bat kills the value of having a premium pick like this, unless your plan is to trade back for additional picks

[Beerfish]

It is fully understandable to have a slight preference for an offensive player.  You do have to take BPA but we have sunk so damn much into the defense over the last 7 or 8 years both pick wise and wise and the D performance last year was a disgrace.

[#27TheDominator]

19 hours ago, win4ever said:

I haven't gone through the whole season, but I've been taking a look at some of the defense (for some breakdowns after the Superbowl, since no one really cares now) and one thing that keeps coming up is that he's in a ton of off coverage, where he's a good 8 yards off the receiver at the line.  It's not helping him much with intermediate or long passes because they are pulling double moves galore on him, so I don't see why they didn't just play him with press coverage.  It wasn't if the level of blown coverage was much different, but it did prevent the easy short passes at least.   

 

I think that the wrist injury hurt Revis from playing bump and run.  He was having trouble with the jam going back to 2015.  I think the surgery took longer to heel and that he never was able to come around this year. I think he will be better next year and I think he would make a good safety.  The figures are pretty high for him in cap and dead money, so there is still a decent chance he is gone. 

[thshadow]

18 hours ago, varjet said:

• • Given that the Jets are out $7mm anyway, I think there is a decent shot that does come back, but if he does not, make him one of the last cuts and let him find another team in September.

I think that his contract (like all of the ones he signs) says that his money becomes guaranteed on the 1st/5th/whatever day of the league year.  So you can't string him along.  You have to make a decision right away.

[KRL]

Bucky Brooks chimes in with his initial rankings:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000775852/article/top-5-2017-nfl-draft-prospects-by-position

[win4ever]

9 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

at this point i don't think mccags has the luxury of thinking about next year.  the only teams that scored fewer points than the jets this season were cleveland and the rams.  worse, while the jets could only score 224 points, there were 9 teams above 400 points, and 2 teams at 399.  

there are defensive players the jets could take at #6 that would make the secondary better.  but at what point does this franchise finally commit top draft picks and big FA money to the offense?  instead of taking a safety, why not take a guy like cook who immediately makes opposing defenses scheme for him b/c the guy is a major threat?  if you want to help the defense, why not give the offense a guy who can move the chains?  then maybe one of these qbs will be able to pad stats with more screens, and guys like devin smith and robbie anderson can stretch the field.  the entire philosophy of beefing up the defense with top picks year after year does not work.  this team is incredibly unbalanced in terms of how it allocates draft collateral and where it spends money in FA.  revis/wilk/sheldon/williams/pryor/lee are all first round picks.  the only 1st round pick on offense is an aging center who got hurt and the running game actually improved in his absence.  devin smith and hack are 2nd rounders.  winters is a 3rd rounder.  most other players on offense are imports - marshall, decker, clady, giocomini, carpenter, ijalana, jenkins, forte, fitz.  nearly the entire starting offense at the beginning of the season was imported. 

finally, from an entertainment standpoint, the team is once again unwatchable.  they need to bring in exciting guys on offense.  i'd rather lose 27-20 than 20-9.  this team needs a philosophical change where someone in the organization puts offense ahead of defense, in an era where you can't touch the qb or the wr.

I think the offensive weapons are more fixable than the defense right now, because there are at least play makers on offense.  If you retain Marshall/Decker, then Marshall/Decker/Enunwa/Anderson/Peake/Marshall/Smith stacks up with a lot of good teams, with Forte/Powell in the backfield.  The only way they can really upgrade the offense is the QB (which doesn't seem to be a good draft for) or the O-line (again, not a good draft to do so).  It's an unfortunate break, but the board doesn't match up.  

I would love Cook or Fournette, but it's a long term move.  For just next year, the difference from say Powell to Cook/Fournette is smaller than the difference from say Burris to Tabor.  As you said, I don't think McCagnan has the luxury to play at 3 year outlook on this draft, he has to improve the team next year or he's most likely unemployed.  And a stud CB in a class loaded with them is the best way to immediately help the team.  In 2-3 years Cook/Fournette might be the better option but the GM might not be around to see that through.  

The team is unbalanced, I'm not really arguing against it, I'm arguing the strength of this draft vs. need.  Just because we need offense doesn't mean we go against the board.  The draft to improve offense is next year, when the QB class is loaded, and we will most likely move on from Marshall and/or Decker.  If we trade down, sure, we can pick up Cam Robinson but that's not sure thing either.  Everyone praises the Cowboys for building a great line, but they had great offensive line scouting to help them.  Guys like Greg Robinson/Jonathan Cooper were can't miss offensive lineman, and they have flopped badly, and this year's crop isn't that inspiring.  I think the best course of action is to build the offensive line through free agency this year and then sure up the defense.  A draft similar to say CB (Tabor- assuming Revis moves to safety)- RB (McCaffery- or Kamara or a few others)-OT- then CB would probably be the most prudent way based on the board.  

If you guaranteed me that Maccagnan has 3 years or more with the team, I think the board would be different because I think we would move on from Marshall and Revis.  

The best way to improve the offense is the offensive coaching, although I didn't think Gailey was that bad.  I didn't think Petty was horrible either, but he had no offensive line to speak off, and got killed.  If we can fix the line via free agency, I think the offense will naturally be better because Fitzpatrick was horrible sans a couple of games missing open guys.  In fact, I think investing that much money into Fitz is probably the biggest reason the offense sucks because of the cost to retain him, and the cap hit next year as well.  

[win4ever]

6 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think that the wrist injury hurt Revis from playing bump and run.  He was having trouble with the jam going back to 2015.  I think the surgery took longer to heel and that he never was able to come around this year. I think he will be better next year and I think he would make a good safety.  The figures are pretty high for him in cap and dead money, so there is still a decent chance he is gone. 

It could be, I just don't understand why it didn't get better through the season though.  They were still blowing by him when he was playing back, because the coverage was set up like he was playing press man coverage on an island.  I have no idea why the defensive assignments didn't change at all.  When he's playing back, and the receiver runs right at him, he was constantly caught flat footed, and the receiver could go pretty much anywhere and be open.  The whole defensive philosophy seemed weird this year because I think he actually did better playing press man cover even with his inability to jam than without the press coverage. 

[chirorob]

On 1/17/2017 at 1:30 PM, section314 said:

Well, who is our Bryan Thomas gonna be this year, because we'll never take this guy.

BPA will be a guard, the only position we have locked down.

[Mecca]

Malik Hooker.

Malik Hooker.

Makil Hooker. 
 

I'm telling you guys he's very similar to Earl Thomas in terms of prospects. We need a guy like him to create turnovers.

 

[rangerous]

10 hours ago, cant wait said:

Best player available. Picking offense for the sake of picking offense is how lousy teams stay lousy

i tend to agree.  there aren't many olinemen or even qb's worth the 6th pick at this point and there are quite a few corners available.  right now the jets really need a corner and a Lt.  they could use a fs and possibly ss if pryor is deemed launchable.  and now it almost seems like marshall is going to be launched so maybe mike williams makes sense.

i think the thing is to not get too wrapped up in the draft.  let's hope they make the first 4 picks count and then fill out with free agents.  and revis does make it all interesting because of his high cap hit and his sub standard performance last season.  at times it would be great if revis does come back and stays in shape but at this point i think he used up all of his good will and is just another guy. 

[cant wait]

14 minutes ago, Mecca said:

Malik Hooker.

Malik Hooker.

Makil Hooker. 
 

I'm telling you guys he's very similar to Earl Thomas in terms of prospects. We need a guy like him to create turnovers.

 

Hooker has a huge size advantage over Thomas too, 6'2 vs. 5'10

[flgreen]

8 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think that the wrist injury hurt Revis from playing bump and run.  He was having trouble with the jam going back to 2015.  I think the surgery took longer to heel and that he never was able to come around this year. I think he will be better next year and I think he would make a good safety.  The figures are pretty high for him in cap and dead money, so there is still a decent chance he is gone. 

If I had to guess I'd think rather then the wrist injury it was the concussion he received toward the end of 2015.  Think he missed 2 games, when he came back he just didn't look like he had any heart.  

Think he's retired in his mind and is just trying to pick up as many more millions as he can on his way out the door.  Can's say as I blame him, all that money he made won't help him if he needs GPS to find the bathroom

[Joe W. Namath]

Id like Williams or Fournette rnd 1.

Best tight end available rnd 2.

Time to get some playmakers on this offense.

[Larz]

trade down twice

[NYJCAP2]

Safety dance