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Patrick Mahomes Article

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RJIII    26
FRS NFL

Is Patrick Mahomes the best QB in the NFL Draft?

ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 25: Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes II (5) passes during the NCAA football game between Baylor University and Texas Tech on November 25, 2016, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. (Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire)
(GEORGE WALKER/ICON SPORTSWIRE)

It’s natural to be immediately turned off by something you’re not used to. In football, this is especially true. People who watch the sport every Sunday cannot stand the thought of variance. In most people’s mind, there’s one way to do something. If it’s not done that way, they’re immediately combative. Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes is living proof that there’s more than one way to skin a cat when it comes to playing the position at a high level.

If you’re familiar with “the Parcells rules” the lone area Mahomes falls short that he can control is he has less than 23 wins. Mahomes lost five games this year alone where he led his offense to over 35 points. Two of those losses the offense scored over 55 points. Mahomes is basically a walking asterisk.

4 MAIN TRAITS

When you break it down, there’s essentially four major traits and we can either build off each or lump them: accuracy, arm, pocket movement and decision making. There are plenty of reps where each of these tie into each other. Here’s how Mahomes fares for each trait. I’ll use three examples for each. While I’ll only use three, these are consistently what I see with Mahomes, not anomalies.

ACCURACY

Ball placement is the most important trait for a QB. Subtle differences like leading a receiver so he can maximize the yards after catch, throwing him open, letting him run under deep passes, are all vital to the position and it’s what separates the top 10 quarterbacks from the guys who likely won’t get second contracts. Accuracy can be affected by plenty of things. In the most layman terms, we see inaccuracy due to

In the most layman terms, we see inaccuracy with his lower body all out of whack. An example being something as simple as not following through on your throws. So your “trail leg” leave the ground. “Step to and through to your target” is something I always hear. This ties into a quarterback’s upper body as well. You can watch a quarterback and see if he falls off to his left or right, instead of through the receiver, and safely assume the throw was inaccurate.

Not with Mahomes. Not the walking asterisk.

 

You can see from the end zone angle Mahomes feet are parallel with the sideline. That has to drive a QB coach nuts. Until you see the result is low and away from the defender.

I see many people are terrified of Mahomes mechanics. I would be as well if he was missing throws left and right. With Patrick, it’s more laziness and reliant on his arm than anything else. I’d compare it to a freakishly gifted receiver who never had to learn to run precise routes because he always won with athleticism. Mahomes is in the same boat, just with his arm.

Make no mistake, there are gimme throws he will miss because he doesn’t do the day 1 footwork steps. That causes him to 1 hop curl throws. Or lead receivers over the middle a step too far. Or the ball will sail on him. There are also times where he plays “too fast.” He has more time than he thinks and he doesn’t get set and will overshoot his receivers deep.

 

The good thing about Mahomes is he recognizes things quickly and has a quick trigger. When he’s playing slow and under control, he gets in a zone and looks like a star QB. It’s the inconsistencies, like speeding up his process, that makes him maddening. You can only get away with your arm for so long.

The thing that I’ve been most impressive with is Mahomes on third downs. His accuracy when he needs to make a play goes to another level. That cannot be discounted. It’s not always the big, flashy play, either. Sure, he has plenty of them. But the throws that are easily overlooked are what stood out to me.

 

It’s third and one and the defender is all over the receiver. Mahomes puts the ball low and away, where not only the receiver can make the play, but still gives him a chance to run after the catch. I’d say about 5-10 times a game there were throws where he’d make a throw like that. It doesn’t seem like much, but his ball placement really lets his playmakers get the most out of plays.

If I had to put a grade on it, I’d say Mahomes has mid-second-round accuracy.

ARM

Arm strength is key. Pretending like it isn’t is naive. You can hide some things with timing but only so much. I’m not referring to how far you can throw it. I’m very much referring to velocity up to 15 yards at all levels. When judging an arm it’s not just limited that, either. How is a quarterback using his arm? Does he know when to use the right trajectory? Does he have the touch to loft it over linebackers? Can he drop it in a bucket over the corners head? Everything can’t be a bullet, but everything can’t be a softball.

Mahomes has the best arm in the class.

There are plenty of quarterbacks with strong arms. Not many quarterbacks can complement their velocity with touch. With Mahomes, this isn’t a problem. At all.

 

The second and fifth throws are great examples of how easy Mahomes makes downfield throws. These throws you are seeing are not routine. They’re not normal. You’d be hard pressed to find 10 quarterbacks at any level that can make them.

Mahomes has the best arm in the class.

 

You could easily credit this to pocket presence as Mahomes hangs in there as a blitzer is running full speed to decapitate him on third down. But an opposite hash throw that’s on target with the perfect precision is everything you want.

Mahomes has the best arm in the class.

Being able to make each throw to every level of the field opens up the playbook for play-callers. On scramble drills, the defense has to respect everyone. The defense is held accountable. Having a big arm is significant. Putting a grade on it, Mahomes has a top 5 grade on his arm.

POCKET MOVEMENT

Pocket movement is somewhat self-explanatory. When you’re getting rushed from the edge, do you climb if there’s a pocket to step into? If you’re getting flushed from the pocket up the middle, are you sliding left or right to buy your receivers more time? Do you bail from a clean pocket? There’s going to be several times a game when you have to leave the pocket. When you’re asked to scramble, do you drop your eyes or are you keeping your eyes downfield?

In Mahomes case, he has some of the best QB vision I’ve seen in recent years. Watch him and watch his helmet. He not only goes through progressions quickly but he knows where his receivers are at all times. When he is flushed from the pocket it’s remarkable how Mahomes eyes remain downfield to find a receiver. Watch him when his first read isn’t there. There’s no panic. Calmly scans the field and will maneuver around the pocket and hit a receiver in stride.

 

Third and long and it’s a zone blitz. Virtually, both edge guys come free. Mahomes manipulates 1 defender and runs away from the other. All while keeping his eyes downfield and making an accurate strike downfield. With him, this was the norm. With him, if he didn’t convert on third down, you figured something must’ve gone wrong.

 

 

That is an incredible stat considering the pressure he faced. Mahomes converted in spite of his offensive line. I’m not going to ignore that. He’s a playmaker.

 

Protecting the ball is just as important. I get that we’re worried about how he carries the ball, but he’s not turning it over at a reckless rate so there’s no need to expect that it will suddenly become a problem in the NFL.

I mentioned how Mahomes plays too fast. There are exposures where he flees the pocket too quickly wanting to make something happen. I’m not overly concerned considering I’ve seen him stand tall in the face of the blitz. But I’m not going to pretend like it doesn’t happen. He will leave a clean pocket. His internal clock is too fast in the pocket.

Where Mahomes excels is when he’s forced to climb the pocket. He will scramble but only as a last resort. He’s looking for someone to come open at the last minute and as we know, the smallest of windows aren’t an issue for him.

 

It looks easy. It’s not supposed to be. In a situation like that, a common quarterback would drop his eyes and likely try to rush for the first down. Patrick is uncommon. He is unlike the majority of quarterbacks you will watch. There will be variance. It won’t always be sunshine and roses. In the pocket, he’ll take sacks he shouldn’t be trying to do too much when he should either throw it out of bounds or take the check down. By in large his ability to shift around the pocket is high quality by NFL standards.

 

Third and 20. Left guard gets beat. Mahomes climbs the pocket, avoids the rush, doesn’t panic and throws a dart 20 yards down the seam for a first down.

Putting a grade on Mahomes pocket movement I’d give him a fringe 2nd round grade.

DECISION MAKING

Another self-explanatory trait that is imperative with the position. Good decision making and being a good quarterback is synonymous. The right decision sometimes can be as simple as throwing the ball out of bounds when nothing is there. Or dumping it off to your running back. There are times where eating the ball and taking a sack is a good decision. You could tie this into the trio of traits above as well.

In the structure of the play, Mahomes makes fine decisions. He knows where to go at all times with the ball, that certainly helps. The decision making is quick, and throws are on time. With Tech’s spread offense, often teams will rush three and drop eight. When they do this it’s a great way to get a feel for Mahomes decision making. He did a good job of letting routes develop and taking the check down. Tech also runs a ton of screens and he shows the awareness not to force it if it’s not there. Those are the small things you appreciate about Mahomes.

The further away from the structure of the play, the worse Mahomes decision making gets. Once a game he’ll have a WTF throw. The worst part is they come at the most inopportune times. These are the throws that turn people away from him, not the “system.”

 

Everything is wrong with this rep. Notice the down and distance. You hear coaches say “every possession needs to end with a kick.” Mahomes needs to take the loss here and realize that a punt isn’t bad. Luckily, the receiver bailed him out.

 

You can see that, at times, his gift is his curse. His ability to see the field and the arm he has makes Mahomes feel like he can get away with throws he has no business making. That entire rep was a bad decision. Starting with drifting in the pocket, to not getting his feet set, lead to him throwing across his body and the outcome of an interception isn’t much of a surprise.

This last one is a pick six nine out of 10 times. He just happened to get lucky here.

 

That’s a situation where either dump it to the running back or eat it. I can imagine a coordinator wanting to put those electric chokers on Mahomes during practice for whenever he gets that impulse to make a poor decision, you get the point.

I would give Mahomes a third-round grade for his decision making. There is a ton of good but the lows are worrisome.

WHY YOU PICK MAHOMES

Now that I’ve lost you, let me reel you back in. I could show you 20 plays where your jaw just drops. There was a series against TCU where he avoided a sack every play. On fourth down, he avoided two defenders and picked up the first down with his legs. Some of his throws on the run where he hits a receiver in stride I could play on a loop all day.

His vision is uncanny. His arm is unbelievable. His accuracy is unorthodox. If you can hone in his decision making, you’re looking at a future star. Being able to create and extend is a skill. He’s not confined to a specific offense. That matters.

Don’t criticize him for the offense he played in. Applaud him for how he excelled and elevated the offense. At worst, you get a high variance QB that will go on streaks just long enough to give him a pass (Eli Manning). At best, you get a QB that can control the entire field with his vision, manipulate defenses with pump fakes, his legs, and consistently keep your offense ahead of schedule, ultimately leading to a lot of point (Ben Roethlisberger). Because of that, and the traits Mahomes excel at are why I believe he’s the best quarterback in the draft.

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JoJoTownsell1    2,386

This is another Goff and Paxton Lynch type of draft class. Maybe one of the top guys emerges as the next Dak or maybe a guy like mahomes does. Almost impossible to predict. Therefore you can't draft any of these guys at 6. 

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Mogglez    2,767
9 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

This is another Goff and Paxton Lynch type of draft class. Maybe one of the top guys emerges as the next Dak or maybe a guy like machines does. Almost impossible to predict. Therefore you can't draft any of these guys at 6. 

This class is a lot closer to the Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon, and Ryan Nassib class than it is to last year's.

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RJIII    26
20 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Guarantee he will be there at 6.

Guarantee we're gonna pass on him.  

Guarantee that he's not even going to be the 3rd QB taken in this failed abortion of a QB class. 

Your first 2 guarentees are probably right. I'm a Jets fan however, given how anemic the organization is on anything offense and certainly at the QB position it wouldn't shock me to see Woody & Co. screw this draft up as well. All 4 QB's on this roster suck and truly aren't worthy of a backup QB spot on any team. Free agency will not yield a franchise QB, this kid can and will be a star in the NFL. Just hope to God he doesn't go to another AFC team, he will keep the Jets out of a Super Bowl! (not that they aren't capable of doing that on their own)

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Mogglez    2,767
31 minutes ago, RJIII said:

Your first 2 guarentees are probably right. I'm a Jets fan however, given how anemic the organization is on anything offense and certainly at the QB position it wouldn't shock me to see Woody & Co. screw this draft up as well. All 4 QB's on this roster suck and truly aren't worthy of a backup QB spot on any team. Free agency will not yield a franchise QB, this kid can and will be a star in the NFL. Just hope to God he doesn't go to another AFC team, he will keep the Jets out of a Super Bowl! (not that they aren't capable of doing that on their own)

Woody has nothing to do with this team right now.

There are 2 QBs on this roster right now. 

Mahomes will be lucky to be drafted. Your love for Texas Tech doesn't won't change that. He has to revamp, not clean up, his mechanics, adapt from an air raid system,  throw to wide recievers who aren't open by 15 yards, and plenty of more.  He's a tall Pat White.

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Stonehands    11,216

Every positive you can provide for Mahomes was also there for Petty coming out except Petty had better mechanics and look how that has turned out thus far.  The fact is both guys come from gimmic systems and have a long transition into the NFL game.

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peekskill68    407
7 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

I say draft this guy!!

 

Great vid. Thanks CB

People forget how mobile he was before all the knee surgeries.

Also, if you didn't know who you were watching you'd probably think it was Marino.  Very similar quick releases...

 

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Mogglez    2,767
3 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Great vid. Thanks CB

People forget how mobile he was before all the knee surgeries.

Also, if you didn't know who you were watching you'd probably think it was Marino.  Very similar quick releases...

 

Absolutely beautiful mechanics.  I didn't grow up watching Namath (23 years old) but my father made sure I watched plenty of him growing up.  Joy to watch. 

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Mogglez    2,767
18 minutes ago, Stonehands said:

Every positive you can provide for Mahomes was also there for Petty coming out except Petty had better mechanics and look how that has turned out thus far.  The fact is both guys come from gimmic systems and have a long transition into the NFL game.

Exactly.  I don't necessarily hate Mahomes.  Nor do I think he sucks.  I just understand that there is a gigantic leap needed for him to even be capable of anything other than a huge project.  Every year there is an Air Raid QB who gets hyped up and they NEVER pan out.

We're working on Hackenberg who already knows the pro game from his time at Penn State under Bill O'Brien, has less mechanical flaws, and a full year of true NFL experience under his belt.  He's likely got until the end of this year to prove himself or else were going QB in the first in a loaded QB class next year with Darnold, Rosen, Browning, etc....why take on ANOTHER project?  Because a Texas Tech Jets fan thinks he's the best QB?  

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RJIII    26
27 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Exactly.  I don't necessarily hate Mahomes.  Nor do I think he sucks.  I just understand that there is a gigantic leap needed for him to even be capable of anything other than a huge project.  Every year there is an Air Raid QB who gets hyped up and they NEVER pan out.

We're working on Hackenberg who already knows the pro game from his time at Penn State under Bill O'Brien, has less mechanical flaws, and a full year of true NFL experience under his belt.  He's likely got until the end of this year to prove himself or else were going QB in the first in a loaded QB class next year with Darnold, Rosen, Browning, etc....why take on ANOTHER project?  Because a Texas Tech Jets fan thinks he's the best QB?  

I'm a Jets fan like you and personally yes, I would love to see him with this team. Probably won't happen but I would love it! That said, I recruited Pat to Tech, coached him the last 3 years, he's the best QB in this draft, he will go in the 1st round! 

None of the QB's on this roster will ever make it in the NFL! 

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Mogglez    2,767
On 2/15/2017 at 9:04 PM, RJIII said:

I'm a Jets fan like you and personally yes, I would love to see him with this team. Probably won't happen but I would love it! That said, I recruited Pat to Tech, coached him the last 3 years, he's the best QB in this draft, he will go in the 1st round! 

 

You know what?  F*ck it.  I respect that opinion.  I don't agree with it, like, at all....but I respect it.  I take it you're on TT's staff which is pretty awesome.  If Pat succeeds in the NFL, I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong.  Most around here know I have a personal bias on Hackenberg from following him since high school and the Elite 11, so I know what it's like to have unconventional opinions about a player you love.  My bad for coming off a little agressive.

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RJIII    26
1 minute ago, Mogglez said:

You know what?  F*ck it.  I respect that opinion.  I don't agree with it, like, at all....but I respect it.  I take it you're on TT's staff which is pretty awesome.  If Pat succeeds in the NFL, I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong.  Most around here know I have a personal bias on Hackenbergfrom following him on his journey since high school and the Elite 11, so I know what it's like to have unconventional opinions about a player you love.  My bad for coming off a little agressive.

All good man! And trust me, Its tough living in Texas and being a Jet fan.. :cool:

Interesting inside info on Pat. AFC teams are really high on him and the emergence Dak Prescot is forcing QB starving teams to take a chance early rather than miss out. Chicago, Buffalo, Cleveland, KC, Houston, Pitt! ALL very high on Pat and possible day 1 landing spots. Have not heard him linked to the Jets at all. One of those 6 teams is more than likely where he ends up if drafted in the 1st. (Information straight from teams and agent Leigh Steinberg)

If somehow he drops to the 2nd round its a free for all and could literally go to any team. NFC teams that have shown interest have him day 2. 

So, if he's drafted in the 1st round rest assure you will see him often every year! 

No chance in hell is isn't taken in the 2nd if he drops! If that does happens I'll change careers and ship you the best bottle of whisky made in TEXAS. Garrison Brothers Whiskey..

 

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T0mShane    90,956

We are a QB factory and can hone the skills of every QB bring your projects here and watch us fix their footwork like magic

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T0mShane    90,956
7 minutes ago, ASH1962 said:

Didn't Pat Mahomes pitch for the Mets?

His dad was Steve Trachsel

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Charlie Brown    3,556
1 hour ago, peekskill68 said:

Great vid. Thanks CB

People forget how mobile he was before all the knee surgeries.

Also, if you didn't know who you were watching you'd probably think it was Marino.  Very similar quick releases...

 

Even in these few clips you can see that he was great.  

His feet were crazy quick when he sets up to throw. Just amazing!!

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Persiussa    133

Rj3, because you're part of the Texas tech staff I would love to hear your opinion on why air raid qbs haven't been successful in the NFL and why you feel Mahomes is different. I can't seem to get over the fact that an air raid qb has never succeeded in the NFL other than a career backup type level.  i guess we'll see but the truth is, if Mahomes is successful he will be the very first air raid guy to buck the trend and I can't find it within myself to believe it will be different this time.  I hate saying things like this because I know he's a human being and I'm not the type to fling insultst and think it will have no bearing on a person if he ever reads this but it's not personal. It's a disbelief in the system, not the person. 

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jetrider    1,217
1 hour ago, Charlie Brown said:

Even in these few clips you can see that he was great.  

His feet were crazy quick when he sets up to throw. Just amazing!!

There will never be another Namath

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