WSJ, worth a read - going against conventional thinking in the draft

[varjet]

Just now, Lil Woody said:

If Thomas is there, that's a Leo scenario. Take the BPA and don't apologize for it. The next coach will thank him for it.

Williams? Mike? Or did you mean someone else. I really like the idea of taking Mike Willaims, but I don't get the reference to half his job bolded above.

Solomon Thomas will be successful in the NFL, but it will require him learning to be a 4-3 end.  

Sorry for the confusion.  Mike Williams is in the Keyshawn/Mike Evans/Brandon Marshall mould of the big fast guy who can catch over people.  But to my knowledge he does not have any part of his game that needs to be developed, or injury issues.  The half of his job part was referring to Hooker.   Hooker is a top 10 prospect who has not played much, been injured, and can't tackle.  The stuff he does well he does top 5 well, but the safer pick is Williams, or Davis.

Don't quite get why one takes Williams or Davis.  

[jack48]

I actually prefer need over BPA.  Because the Jets are super needy.  I want them to draft safe guys with high floors, and not worry about ceilings, and no more talented projects.  Time to pile up as known a bunch of quantities as we can

[Lil Woody]

Just now, varjet said:

Solomon Thomas will be successful in the NFL, but it will require him learning to be a 4-3 end.  

Sorry for the confusion.  Mike Williams is in the Keyshawn/Mike Evans/Brandon Marshall mould of the big fast guy who can catch over people.  But to my knowledge he does not have any part of his game that needs to be developed, or injury issues.  The half of his job part was referring to Hooker.   Hooker is a top 10 prospect who has not played much, been injured, and can't tackle.  The stuff he does well he does top 5 well, but the safer pick is Williams, or Davis.

Don't quite get why one takes Williams or Davis.  

I'd say Williams needs a lot of work on his routes, but has great upside imo. Mike Evans is a great comp.  Those guys are huge assets, especially in the redzone. Davis is just so exciting as a prospect, has a massive ceiling, Julio Jones type ceiling, but comes with risk...but he looks like he's got that extra gear to close on the deep ball easily. 

[varjet]

7 minutes ago, jack48 said:

I actually prefer need over BPA.  Because the Jets are super needy.  I want them to draft safe guys with high floors, and not worry about ceilings, and no more talented projects.  Time to pile up as known a bunch of quantities as we can

Gholston was low floor/high ceiling.  F low floor.  No more low floor players in the first round.  I think if you look at recent drafts the NFL agrees.  Don't think the Draftniks get that.  That and value to the QB.  We will see soon enough.

7 minutes ago, Lil Woody said:

I'd say Williams needs a lot of work on his routes, but has great upside imo. Mike Evans is a great comp.  Those guys are huge assets, especially in the redzone. Davis is just so exciting as a prospect, has a massive ceiling, Julio Jones type ceiling, but comes with risk...but he looks like he's got that extra gear to close on the deep ball easily. 

I think I am starting to like Davis over Williams.  My draft board is:

Adams

Howard

Trubisky

Davis

Williams

Adams and Howard are certain stars.

MT is a QB with strong starting potential

Davis and Williams are WRs that allow them to move on from Decker and support a QB.

[Lil Woody]

2 minutes ago, varjet said:

Gholston was low floor/high ceiling.  F low floor.  No more low floor players in the first round.  I think if you at recent drafts the NFL agrees.  Don't think the Draftniks get that.  That and value to the QB.  We will see soon enough.

I think I am starting to like Davis over Williams.  My draft board is:

Adams

Howard

Trubisky

Davis

Williams

Adams and Howard are certain stars.

MT is a QB with strong starting potential

Davis and Williams are WRs that allow them to move on from Decker and support a QB.

Not sure moving on from Decker is a good thing. He's a pro, he will help WRs grow into their roles at their own pace and he'll be a great RZ target for any QB we bring on. I hated the whole Fitz is my boy routine and camp tantrum too....but the guy isn't a cancer or anything so far as we know.

[varjet]

4 minutes ago, Lil Woody said:

Not sure moving on from Decker is a good thing. He's a pro, he will help WRs grow into their roles at their own pace and he'll be a great RZ target for any QB we bring on. I hated the whole Fitz is my boy routine and camp tantrum too....but the guy isn't a cancer or anything so far as we know.

Depends who the QB is.  Decker is likely not a Jet in 2018.   What young receiver is cut in 2017 to save a spot for Decker?

And I like Decker, alot.  Maybe this problem solves itself.  Decker could end up on IR to start the season.  Let him come in for Hack after some other receiver gets injured.

Gilcrist....don't know.

[peebag]

20 minutes ago, Lil Woody said:

Not sure moving on from Decker is a good thing. He's a pro, he will help WRs grow into their roles at their own pace and he'll be a great RZ target for any QB we bring on. I hated the whole Fitz is my boy routine and camp tantrum too....but the guy isn't a cancer or anything so far as we know.

Decker can't seem to stay on the field and with the contract he carries, you might as well see what the young'uns do.

[Lil Woody]

3 minutes ago, varjet said:

Depends who the QB is.  Decker is likely not a Jet in 2018.   What young receiver is cut in 2017 to save a spot for Decker?

And I like Decker, alot.  Maybe this problem solves itself.  Decker could end up on IR to start the season.  Let him come in for Hack after some other receiver gets injured.

Gilcrist....don't know.

I only value our WRs as being 4 deep.

Enunwa, Decker, Anderson and Peake

I'd love to be wrong about Marshall and Smith, but until proven otherwise, they are not cutting it. So, plenty of room to draft a WR high and then develop them alongside a new QB.

As far as getting Gilchrist off the books, just do it already. He's not a guy to rebuild with. Cut his ass and get the playing time to Middleton or maybe a 4th rd rookie FS? .

[Lil Woody]

Just now, peebag said:

Decker can't seem to stay on the field and with the contract he carries, you might as well see what the young'uns do.

The opportunity is still there. But for WRs I think you gotta let it happen like Enunwa has done.  I really like that we made room for him to ascend this season to a #1 role. That's the right play. It's so not the Jets way either.  Now that leaves Peake or Anderson with one spot to compete for in getting really meaningful snaps.

[Villain The Foe]

6 hours ago, adb280z said:

How many weak armed QBs have become franchise QBs?  I don't consider Taylor a franchise QB.

You missed my point, but let me answer your question then clarify my point. 

There arent many weak armed QB's that are considered franchise QB's. Alex Smith is probably the only one. However, how many franchise QB's are there to begin with? Not many. There's probably 8 to 10 QB's that are true franchise QB's and about 5 that are truly elite QB's. Many of these QB's that are considered franchise QB's or elite we have no idea about their velocity because they were in the league before the test was introduced. However, the QB considered the best in the NFL and arguably the best of all-time...Tom Brady came out of Michigan and was considered a QB who didnt have a strong arm. 

"Notes: Baseball catcher and football quarterback in high school who was drafted by the Montreal Expos in the 18th round of the June 1995 baseball draft. Opted for football and redshirted at Michigan in '95. Saw limited action in '96 and '97 and started the past two years. Completed 3 of 5 passes for 26 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in '96, 12-15-103-0-0 in '97, 214-350-2,636-15-12 in '98 and 180-295-2,216-16-6 in '99, when he often shared time with super sophomore Drew Henson. Went all the way against Alabama in the Orange Bowl and completed 34-46-369-4. Unlike many Michigan quarterbacks, Brady is a pocket-type passer who plays best in a dropback-type system.

Tom Brady Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and in big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader.

Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you'd like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can't drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own.

Summary: Is not what you're looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone."

This is Tom Brady's pre-draft scouting report. Yet we've gotten to watch Tom Brady for 16 years and I think its safe to say that when Tom Brady has to throw the ball down the field, he has no problem doing it. 

Most of the franchise QB's today never took the test, so we dont know what their velocity is. And its hard to say "well, we can tell just by them playing that they have a strong arm". Well, Tyrod Taylor obviously has a stronger arm than David Fales and yet Fales scored higher than Tyrod in the velocity measurement. We dont know what those QB's velocity is, and quite frankly it doesnt matter. 

Now let me clarify my point. 

Last year, many Jets fans wanted us to draft Watson. This year a velocity measurement is taken and suddenly we cant draft him because his arm is too weak to play in the Northeast given weather/winds for example. Well, Tyrod Taylor plays in Buffalo, weather much worse than in East Rutherford, Tom Brady plays in NE where the weather can be much worse as well. 

Velocity tells you nothing about what a QB can do on Sundays. Tyrod threw a 50 yet he's one of the best deep ball throws in the game while doing so playing in Buffalo. Brady didnt take the velocity test but was considered a guy with a weaker arm and cant throw tight spirals, and yet Brady has been throwing deep passes his entire career when needed. Mike Glennon scored a 49 on his velocity test but before this test has become "a thing" no one in their argument against Glennon when speaking with me has ever said "Glennon has a weak arm" because he doesnt. 

 

All im saying is that we need not to put too much on this velocity test. If people liked Watson a year ago based on what he put on tape, then that shouldnt change because of a measurement that has proven not to be consistent when looking at in game performances. 

[Jetster]

3 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

You missed my point, but let me answer your question then clarify my point. 

There arent many weak armed QB's that are considered franchise QB's. Alex Smith is probably the only one. However, how many franchise QB's are there to begin with? Not many. There's probably 8 to 10 QB's that are true franchise QB's and about 5 that are truly elite QB's. Many of these QB's that are considered franchise QB's or elite we have no idea about their velocity because they were in the league before the test was introduced. However, the QB considered the best in the NFL and arguably the best of all-time...Tom Brady came out of Michigan and was considered a QB who didnt have a strong arm. 

"Notes: Baseball catcher and football quarterback in high school who was drafted by the Montreal Expos in the 18th round of the June 1995 baseball draft. Opted for football and redshirted at Michigan in '95. Saw limited action in '96 and '97 and started the past two years. Completed 3 of 5 passes for 26 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in '96, 12-15-103-0-0 in '97, 214-350-2,636-15-12 in '98 and 180-295-2,216-16-6 in '99, when he often shared time with super sophomore Drew Henson. Went all the way against Alabama in the Orange Bowl and completed 34-46-369-4. Unlike many Michigan quarterbacks, Brady is a pocket-type passer who plays best in a dropback-type system.

Tom Brady Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and in big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader.

Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you'd like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can't drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own.

Summary: Is not what you're looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone."

This is Tom Brady's pre-draft scouting report. Yet we've gotten to watch Tom Brady for 16 years and I think its safe to say that when Tom Brady has to throw the ball down the field, he has no problem doing it. 

Most of the franchise QB's today never took the test, so we dont know what their velocity is. And its hard to say "well, we can tell just by them playing that they have a strong arm". Well, Tyrod Taylor obviously has a stronger arm than David Fales and yet Fales scored higher than Tyrod in the velocity measurement. We dont know what those QB's velocity is, and quite frankly it doesnt matter. 

Now let me clarify my point. 

Last year, many Jets fans wanted us to draft Watson. This year a velocity measurement is taken and suddenly we cant draft him because his arm is too weak to play in the Northeast given weather/winds for example. Well, Tyrod Taylor plays in Buffalo, weather much worse than in East Rutherford, Tom Brady plays in NE where the weather can be much worse as well. 

Velocity tells you nothing about what a QB can do on Sundays. Tyrod threw a 50 yet he's one of the best deep ball throws in the game while doing so playing in Buffalo. Brady didnt take the velocity test but was considered a guy with a weaker arm and cant throw tight spirals, and yet Brady has been throwing deep passes his entire career when needed. Mike Glennon scored a 49 on his velocity test but before this test has become "a thing" no one in their argument against Glennon when speaking with me has ever said "Glennon has a weak arm" because he doesnt. 

 

All im saying is that we need not to put too much on this velocity test. If people liked Watson a year ago based on what he put on tape, then that shouldnt change because of a measurement that has proven not to be consistent when looking at in game performances. 

There is no way in hell that Joe Montana threw the ball with any more velocity than Tyrod Taylor. Velocity my azz, if Macc is sold on Watson over Trubisky you take him at 6 and run with it. It amazes me that in 2015 we had the same fans on here talking about failing for Watson, lol, now we have the 6th pick, he may drop to us and the same people clamoring for him when after his freshman season are already saying he can't play in the Northeast.

Many compare Watson to Vince Young, but there is one HUGE DIFFERENCE, Watson is considered very intelligent & an extremely hard worker. You cannot ignore those attributes that Watson has. Geno was unsuccessful because he didn't learn from his mistakes. The more I look at the present team & I see a WINNER like Watson sitting there, I think we would be CRAZY to not take a flyer on him. His teammates loved him, he beat the best defense in college football not once but twice bringing them back from a deficit. He's a leader & his floor is Tyrod Taylor but his ceiling could be a Donavon McNabb. 

Id be happy as a clam come Thursday night Roger Goodale walks up to the podium & says "With the 6th pick in the 2017 draft the NY Jets select Dashaun Watson QB Clemson University". 

Lets rock bitches!

[jamesr]

A TE is useless without having a QB to throw to him. 

But how do you know you have a QB if he has no-one to throw to / no protection?

No man is an island - if QB was everything, Indy would be one of the top teams around. They couldn't even win the AFC South from a team that started Brock Osweiler last year.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

[Villain The Foe]

4 hours ago, Jetster said:

There is no way in hell that Joe Montana threw the ball with any more velocity than Tyrod Taylor. Velocity my azz, if Macc is sold on Watson over Trubisky you take him at 6 and run with it. It amazes me that in 2015 we had the same fans on here talking about failing for Watson, lol, now we have the 6th pick, he may drop to us and the same people clamoring for him when after his freshman season are already saying he can't play in the Northeast.

Many compare Watson to Vince Young, but there is one HUGE DIFFERENCE, Watson is considered very intelligent & an extremely hard worker. You cannot ignore those attributes that Watson has. Geno was unsuccessful because he didn't learn from his mistakes. The more I look at the present team & I see a WINNER like Watson sitting there, I think we would be CRAZY to not take a flyer on him. His teammates loved him, he beat the best defense in college football not once but twice bringing them back from a deficit. He's a leader & his floor is Tyrod Taylor but his ceiling could be a Donavon McNabb. 

Id be happy as a clam come Thursday night Roger Goodale walks up to the podium & says "With the 6th pick in the 2017 draft the NY Jets select Dashaun Watson QB Clemson University". 

Lets rock bitches!

Exactly. I never been a huge Deshaun Watson fan, but I dont look at his low velocity and it suddenly sways my opinion. having a velocity of 50 is 1 point better than 49, yet I dont see Tyrod Taylor having any issues throwing the ball up in Buffalo, and we can all agree that the weather up there is worse than at Metlife. 

For people to hold the position of "We cant draft him because he wont be able to throw the ball in Metlife weather" is way out there...for numerous reasons. #1. Not every pass is a deep pass and #2. There's actual tangible proof of players with similar velocity playing in stadiums that have worse weather that can make every throw required. 

Im not interested that much in Watson, but if we were to pass on him for the reason being his "velocity", I would have to chalk that up as just being stupid in the draft process. 

People put way too much into these workouts and measurements. Either he's a football player or he isnt. Either he can make all the throws or he cant. Hackenberg has a strong arm, yet we have coaches saying that he couldnt hit the ocean at the beach...so what's the point of having a strong arm if he cant hit a target? 

[joewilly12]

8 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Exactly. I never been a huge Deshaun Watson fan, but I dont look at his low velocity and it suddenly sways my opinion. having a velocity of 50 is 1 point better than 49, yet I dont see Tyrod Taylor having any issues throwing the ball up in Buffalo, and we can all agree that the weather up there is worse than at Metlife. 

For people to hold the position of "We cant draft him because he wont be able to throw the ball in Metlife weather" is way out there...for numerous reasons. #1. Not every pass is a deep pass and #2. There's actual tangible proof of players with similar velocity playing in stadiums that have worse weather that can make every throw required. 

Im not interested that much in Watson, but if we were to pass on him for the reason being his "velocity", I would have to chalk that up as just being stupid in the draft process. 

People put way too much into these workouts and measurements. Either he's a football player or he isnt. Either he can make all the throws or he cant. Hackenberg has a strong arm, yet we have coaches saying that he couldnt hit the ocean at the beach...so what's the point of having a strong arm if he cant hit a target? 

Great post,havent you heard we are tanking for Darnold. 

[Ex-Rex]

It simply blows my mind how crazy NFL front office people get over "potential frachise QB's". None of the QB's in this draft has a first round grade and are rated about equally with three guys who came out in 2011 and got taken in the first round. You might have heard of Jake Locker, Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. None of these guys had a first round grade yet Tennessee took Locker - and a few really bad years later they had to draft Marcus Mariota. The Jaguars took Gabbert and had to draft Blake Bortles soon after some really bad years and Minnesota took Ponder and a few years later drafted Bridgewater. See the pattern there? This will be the Jets if they take Trubisky or Watson or Mahomes or Kiser. Take the player where his talent - not his position - says he should be taken.

[Villain The Foe]

12 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Great post,havent you heard we are tanking for Darnold. 

Just wait until he has a velocity of 49. Suddenly he'll suck. lol 

[Jetster]

17 hours ago, Ex-Rex said:

It simply blows my mind how crazy NFL front office people get over "potential frachise QB's". None of the QB's in this draft has a first round grade and are rated about equally with three guys who came out in 2011 and got taken in the first round. You might have heard of Jake Locker, Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. None of these guys had a first round grade yet Tennessee took Locker - and a few really bad years later they had to draft Marcus Mariota. The Jaguars took Gabbert and had to draft Blake Bortles soon after some really bad years and Minnesota took Ponder and a few years later drafted Bridgewater. See the pattern there? This will be the Jets if they take Trubisky or Watson or Mahomes or Kiser. Take the player where his talent - not his position - says he should be taken.

This cracks me up how fans believe they can tell everyone else how good a college QB will play in the NFL.

[JustInFudge]

On 4/22/2017 at 4:28 PM, AFJF said:

And there's the Watson velocity issue again.  Hard to dispute it when you look at the last five or six years of QB's who can't hit 55 or higher, unless you're one of those science haters.

You just referred to the Ourlads Scouting Services as science.  Science.  Like, that legit just happened.

 

[JustInFudge]

On 4/22/2017 at 7:45 PM, Villain The Foe said:

I got to disagree with this one. Not sure if having a speed gun record velocity should be considered a science. IMO it's nothing more than a recording. And im not here to make a case for Watson, I just feel like if Watson doesnt become a good QB it wont be primarily because of his velocity but his inability to make the right decisions on the field, which unfortunately science hasnt been able to tell us who's a franchise QB or not. 

We could look at the past 5 or 6 years of QB's who could hit 55 or higher and you wont see a bunch of franchise QB's across the board. What are their excuses? Lets just throw out some names of guys 55 or higher. 

Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Logan Thomas, Zac Dysert, Brandon Weeden, Nick Foles, Ryan Mallet, Sean Mannion, Tom Savage, Chandler Harnish, Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, Keith Wenning, Ryan Nassib, Levi Brown, Nate Davis, Geno Smith, Tyler Wilson, Rhett Bomar and Keivn O'Connell. 

 

Tyrod Talyor is a guy that many Jets fans wanted if the Bills released him, outside of his issue throwing the ball between the hashmarks we all know that Tyrod Taylor throws one of the most accurate footballs down field with plenty of air under the football. 

In 2011 Tyrod Taylor had a velocity of 50. Now either velocity is just a recording and not a science, or science most definitely has it wrong when it comes to Taylor because there's nothing wrong with his deep ball. Just ask Darrelle Revis. 

You can have a guy like Pat Mahomes register 62 miles an hour but his passes be all over the place. Check out this video of Mahomes vs David Carr. 

Mahomes clearly has the stronger arm, but Carr is clearly more accurate. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbXhUHIFRkg

I cant believe this sh*t stuck and is being consistently brought up as if there is any validity whatsoever to Ourlads and what they provide.  Never mind the fact if you actually use their data, there is more data to prove that strong armed QB's fail more than weak armed. haha

[JustInFudge]

This article is stupid FYI.  Especially considering how much cheaper NFL teams get high draft picks. Money should never be priority over play when you're prioritizing your draft.  And saying that you should fill holes rather than draft BAP completely ignores positional value and you end up with someone like Darron Lee when you draft based on need. 

 

[AFJF]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

You just referred to the Ourlads Scouting Services as science.  Science.  Like, that legit just happened.

 

You just took a completely ballbusting comment and thought I was serious.  

It felt appropriate having just seen about a billion people march through London in an effort to convince people that science is real.

[Augustiniak]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

This article is stupid FYI.  Especially considering how much cheaper NFL teams get high draft picks. Money should never be priority over play when you're prioritizing your draft.  And saying that you should fill holes rather than draft BAP completely ignores positional value and you end up with someone like Darron Lee when you draft based on need. 

 

at this point i agree.  while i'd rather have a pro bowl cb than a pro bowl safety, i wouldn't take lattimore over adams.  if the jets wound up with adams and he is everything we hoped pryor isn't, i'm fine with that.  it's a good thing the cowboys didn't use this logic when they took zach martin.

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, AFJF said:

You just took a completely ballbusting comment and thought I was serious.  

It felt appropriate having just seen about a billion people march through London in an effort to convince people that science is real.

hahaha dick

[AFJF]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

I cant believe this sh*t stuck and is being consistently brought up as if there is any validity whatsoever to Ourlads and what they provide.  Never mind the fact if you actually use their data, there is more data to prove that strong armed QB's fail more than weak armed. haha

I've only seen five or six seasons worth of measurements, but the list of successful sub-55 guys has 2 or 3 names on it.  The 55+ had many more successful QBs.

 

 

[BCJet]

3 hours ago, Jetster said:

This cracks me up how fans believe they can tell everyone else how good a college QB will play in the NFL.

I dont think anyone is saying whether these guys will be good or bad, good GMs with years of experience cant do that.  I think the point about this draft is that the chances of a "top guy" like Trubisky being a franchise QB vs. someone like Nathan Peterman is much smaller then it would be with a mariora/winston over a middle round guy.

GMs clearly cant identify with any regularity what makes a great QB, its just a question of odds and when you use a high pick on someone where the odds of them being a great QB are too low (ie to many question marks with either experience or physical ability) then you set your franchise back significantly because not only did you miss on the QB, but you missed on the position player you could have had.

Also, it doesnt seem like the ourlads article gave much opinion - they just stated the numbers of other QBs and how velocity is important.  High velocity doesnt automatically = being a good NFL QB, but low velocity seems to indicate its much harder to be successful.

[JustInFudge]

9 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I've only seen five or six seasons worth of measurements, but the list of successful sub-55 guys has 2 or 3 names on it.  The 55+ had many more successful QBs.

 

 

It's pretty equal from what I've seen but I didnt examine it because it's beyond stupid. 

[whodeawhodat]

article makes sense, someone forward it to Mac's email address.

[Villain The Foe]

4 hours ago, JiF said:

I cant believe this sh*t stuck and is being consistently brought up as if there is any validity whatsoever to Ourlads and what they provide.  Never mind the fact if you actually use their data, there is more data to prove that strong armed QB's fail more than weak armed. haha

Whats worse is that its taken a bit out of context. Just because a guy has a lower velocity of his passes doesnt mean that he cant make all the throws. It could simply mean that the speed in which the pass arrives could be slower. 

 

Just because Watson cant throw a football 40 yards on a rope like Brett Favre doesnt mean that he cant throw a footballl 40 yards. <<<<<This is what people have confused the velocity measurement with. They look at the number and conclude that he cant make the throws or atleast make the throws at Metlife in December. The Velocity test will probably never be able to tell you what a QB can do in NY weather in December, however, the size of a QB's hand is a better indication of what a guy could possibly do in the elements in respects to consistency because in rain, snow or wind a QB's immediate problem is grip. 

 

The velocity measurement is being given too much credit. 

[UntouchableCrew]

I understand the logic in not wanting to take a safety top ten in theory. I think when you view the guy as a 10 year pro bowler you bite the bullet and take him though... And that's what I think Jamal Adams is going to be. Guy is a stud.

[nyjbuddy]

Could someone clarify a few things from this article?  

"But one 2012 study, for example, found in the first round a player has just a 53% chance at being better than the next player drafted at the same position." Couldn't the next player drafted at the same position also be a first rounder?  Mariota vs Winston or A.J. Green vs Julio Jones.  The fact that the draft consist of players being drafted from the same position groups (QBs, WRs, CBs, O-lineman, D-lineman), the chance of the "next player" also being a 1st rounder is pretty high.  I would be shocked if it said that a first rounder had a 53% change of being better than the last player drafted in the same position.  Since they are trying to see if the "best player available" is in fact the "best player available", then yes 53% selections are right, that's not bad considering that they may have had similar grades on the same position players.

Also, none of this even talks about off-field factors that influence the selection of a player.  Should teams ignore that factor?  There are players that drop in drafts due to character concerns, injuries, attitude, etc.   These players may have better careers in the long run, but it takes certain organizations to be able to handle those players.  They may even cause more damage to a locker room and to a team than their play on the field.  Players with injury concerns may even cause teams to hang on to players due to their draft status rather than their possible production on the field.

"Adams and Hooker immediately would become among the highest paid safeties in the entire league—without any guarantee they’re actually worth it—because highly drafted players automatically receive fairly lucrative salaries while safeties are among the most inexpensive positions to fill in free agency." The entirety of their contracts would high, and their 4th year cap charge would put them near the top 5.  But its not like their contracts would be unheard of for a safety.  Take Goff's contract from last year: year 1: $5M, year 2: $6.3M, year 3: $7.6M, year 4: $8.9M.  For Adams or Hooker that would place them around 25th highest safety next year, 17th the next year after that, 11th the next year after that and 6th in their final year.  Using the current safeties contracts as comparison which should only increase with time.  As a comparison, you are getting a cheaper contract than the one Tony Jefferson just signed this past off-season as the 10th highest paid safety.  These guys don't need to be the next Ed Reed, Brian Dawkins, Sean Taylor, Eric Berry, or Earl Thomas they just need to be the next Tony Jefferson and you would be getting value.  Earlier in the off-season there were many on this board that were pounding the table for trying to sign Jefferson.