Jump to content

It's Gholston scenario all over again


JohnnyLV

Recommended Posts

I HATE the Jets draft position this year.  It is highly likely we go with the consensus default pick at 6 and he busts spectacularly.

It is a very deep draft but not a really strong draft at the top, and especially lacking in can't miss playmakers, elite edge rushers and especially left tackle talent. If the Jets are unable to trade out to allow some one to pick up a reach QB, the Jets essentially have a big pile of poor draft value crap to select from at 6. 

Essentially we get to choose between a very high risk CB with a history of soft tissue injuries which in my opinion should remove him from 1st round consideration, a friggin safety at 6 which is terrible value, or a TE which might be the BPA.  The other BPA might be a very physical RB, that also has high bust potential. I am not sold on any WR at 6 especially Williams who I think has very high bust potential. He is great catching the ball in traffic, but he largely creates that traffic himself. 

Then we have the QBs. A weak armed "winner" that has bust written all over him, the second coming of Sanchez with a slightly better arm. and intriguing prospect in Mahomes that needs lots of development and a huge reach at 6. All are gigantic risks. Our best hope is that someone loves one of these guys and we can trade down. It is what I am praying for.  I am not convinced any of them are better prospects than Hack either.

We are hyst kind of screwed at 6. I have to be honest, I think our only way forward is to either have Hack develop or hopefully get a QB next year.

If I am the Jets FO I think you need to just saw "screw the defense" for this year and just do whatever you can to give the QB this year or next year the best chance to develop.by giving the QB the most weapons and protection you can. I would even sign up for completely overhauling the TE position and drafting OJ Howard in the first and Njoku in the second and running primarily 12 and 22 offensive formations which provides extra pass protection and a lot of potential mismatches especially with Enunwa and Bilaaal in the backfield, or in 12 personnel with different combos of outside receivers.

In the end though, I don't see the Jets being creative like that, and with Bowles as HC I am already dreading the default pick of Adams or Lattimore neither of which will help this team get out of the rut we are in.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The way I look at it is this....let's say for example you like Trubisky, Ramcyk or some edge rusher, but not at 6 and the trade offers are non-existent.

Will the player you want at a later pick be available to you when your next pick comes up?  If not, I'd rather reach at a position that merits a top ten pick then pick a TE or S at 6 as the draft is deep but shallow up top... so maybe the 2 OT's or QB's you 'like' may be gone by the time your second pick comes up because you picked a TE or S at 6.

Guess we'll see how the Jets feel Thursday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see the Gholston comparison necessarily, although this year's Gholston could be Hooker.  

Gholston was the last player with excellent measureables, but he was not a football player.   He was absolutely terrible.

I think the risk with this year's crop is more with injuries than wanting to play football.

At the worst the Jets are looking at Fournette, Hooker, Howard, Lattimore I would think.  I think they all have relatively high floors.  The player most like Gholston may be Garrett.  Have you heard the stuff that comes out of his mouth?  

But I do not disagree that the Jets should add a Ramcyk, or maybe the OLB from Kansas State, or even Gareon Conley to 6.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, varjet said:

I don't see the Gholston comparison necessarily, although this year's Gholston could be Hooker.  

Gholston was the last player with excellent measureables, but he was not a football player.   He was absolutely terrible.

I think the risk with this year's crop is more with injuries than wanting to play football.

At the worst the Jets are looking at Fournette, Hooker, Howard, Lattimore I would think.  I think they all have relatively high floors.  The player most like Gholston may be Garrett.  Have you heard the stuff that comes out of his mouth?  

But I do not disagree that the Jets should add a Ramcyk, or maybe the OLB from Kansas State, or even Gareon Conley to 6.

Considering the depth at all those positions and the fact that none of them are Premium positions, why should the Jets be targeting these positions ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Tinstar said:

Considering the depth at all those positions and the fact that none of them are Premium positions, why should the Jets be targeting these positions ?

Vis a vis my last sentence, LT, OLB and CB are premium positions.  If those players are good there, that is good value for the slot.

Yes, TE and S are not necessarily premium positions, but exceptional performers at those positions do sign second contracts for more (much more) than a 6th Pick rookie contract.  You can't really look at averages.  If the Jets believed that a Howard, Hooker or Adams could be elite performers at their positions, paying them the 6th pick compensation would be justifiable.  I actually think at least Adams and Howard will be elite, early.  Hooker there are doubts because of his injuries and run support.

Same thing with Fournette.  If he is the next AP, or even Zeke Elliott, 6th pick compensation is not unreasonable.  The question though is whether his style of play, behind the Jets OL, makes him that good.

That is why my draftboard is Adams, Howard, Trubisky, Fournette.  I think the Jets may have MT and LF switched.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, varjet said:

Vis a vis my last sentence, LT, OLB and CB are premium positions.  If those players are good there, that is good value for the slot.

Yes, TE and S are not necessarily premium positions, but exceptional performers at those positions do sign second contracts for more (much more) than a 6th Pick rookie contract.  You can't really look at averages.  If the Jets believed that a Howard, Hooker or Adams could be elite performers at their positions, paying them the 6th pick compensation would be justifiable.  I actually think at least Adams and Howard will be elite, early.  Hooker there are doubts because of his injuries and run support.

Same thing with Fournette.  If he is the next AP, or even Zeke Elliott, 6th pick compensation is not unreasonable.  The question though is whether his style of play, behind the Jets OL, makes him that good.

That is why my draftboard is Adams, Howard, Trubisky, Fournette.  I think the Jets may have MT and LF switched.  

I love Howard, and I like Adams,  but there's no way I'm spending a top 10 pick of those 2 positions  . Oh, and I don't consider CB a premium position .The key part of that last statement is I don't. not what others believe .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, varjet said:

I don't see the Gholston comparison necessarily, although this year's Gholston could be Hooker.  

Gholston was the last player with excellent measureables, but he was not a football player.   He was absolutely terrible.

I think the risk with this year's crop is more with injuries than wanting to play football.

At the worst the Jets are looking at Fournette, Hooker, Howard, Lattimore I would think.  I think they all have relatively high floors.  The player most like Gholston may be Garrett.  Have you heard the stuff that comes out of his mouth?  

But I do not disagree that the Jets should add a Ramcyk, or maybe the OLB from Kansas State, or even Gareon Conley to 6.

Perhaps not Gholsten bad but I could argue that Coples and Milner were as bad.  

WE hung on to them, waiting when both had early warning signed. Coples for laziness and Milner for settting off metal detectors.

Id say trade down if possible, draft for speed, position need, and health. 

just watched an NFL special on the draft.  Showed 5 teams that won a SB in 2 years with a draft of 5 players that all started.

imagine we draft 5 starters in 2017. 

I don't care where they play...that should be our goal. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree on Lattimore, as gifted as he is..., the safties I think may not be difference makers.

Fournette, I think is a luxury pick this team can't afford. Trubisky of the small sample size is high risk, can this front office afford to sit him for the year ? 

Trading down makes the best sense if they can get a trading partner. Mohones  would be a ball'sy pick after 15...

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tinstar said:

I love Howard, and I like Adams,  but there's no way I'm spending a top 10 pick of those 2 positions  . Oh, and I don't consider CB a premium position .The key part of that last statement is I don't. not what others believe .

CB is not necessarily a premium position.  For the Jets defense, it is.  The Patriots, perhaps the NFL's best run team, just gave Gilmore a ton of money.  Pick if a corner makes 1/3 of that.  Lattimore could be better than Gilmore, if he is healthy.

But based on my read of this draft, The Jets can draft a CB with their 2nd round pick who could start.  Easily, so there is no need to use a CB at 6, particularly one who has injury issues.

1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

Perhaps not Gholsten bad but I could argue that Coples and Milner were as bad.  

WE hung on to them, waiting when both had early warning signed. Coples for laziness and Milner for settting off metal detectors.

Id say trade down if possible, draft for speed, position need, and health. 

just watched an NFL special on the draft.  Showed 5 teams that won a SB in 2 years with a draft of 5 players that all started.

imagine we draft 5 starters in 2017. 

I don't care where they play...that should be our goal. 

I agree with this and think it is close to possible.   If the Jets drafted a CB, S, EDGE and TE with their first four picks, those picks could all conceivably start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

I agree on Lattimore, as gifted as he is..., the safties I think may not be difference makers.

Fournette, I think is a luxury pick this team can't afford. Trubisky of the smaple sample size is high risk, can this front office afford to sit him for the year ? 

Trading down makes the best sense if they can get a trading partner. Mohones  would be a ball'sy pick after 15...

 

 

I don't see Mahones being a ballsy pick after 15.  Historically, that is when guys like that went.

Its the Trubisky pick at 6 which is ballsy.  That rings of Tannehill, Bortles, Ponder, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, varjet said:

I don't see Mahones being a ballsy pick after 15.  Historically, that is when guys like that went.

Its the Trubisky pick at 6 which is ballsy.  That rings of Tannehill, Bortles, Ponder, etc.

I wish the Jets had a QB as good as Tannehill  . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, varjet said:

CB is not necessarily a premium position.  For the Jets defense, it is.  The Patriots, perhaps the NFL's best run team, just gave Gilmore a ton of money.  Pick if a corner makes 1/3 of that.  Lattimore could be better than Gilmore, if he is healthy.

But based on my read of this draft, The Jets can draft a CB with their 2nd round pick who could start.  Easily, so there is no need to use a CB at 6, particularly one who has injury issues.

I agree with this and think it is close to possible.   If the Jets drafted a CB, S, EDGE and TE with their first four picks, those picks could all conceivably start.

If we has a QB drafting those positions make sense, but we HAVE to develop some QB over the next 2 years and our ability to truly compete us exceedingly unlikely. Because if this I believe the Jets should do everything they can to protect a young QB and protect him. We cannot keep ignoring the offense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, varjet said:

I don't see Mahones being a ballsy pick after 15.  Historically, that is when guys like that went.

Its the Trubisky pick at 6 which is ballsy.  That rings of Tannehill, Bortles, Ponder, etc.

I agree on Trubisky.

If MacCagnan  is to avoid becoming another footnote in forgettable GMs of Jets history, he has to hit this year on the draft lotto.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

I agree on Trubisky.

If MacCagnan  is to avoid becoming another footnote in forgettable GMs of Jets history, he has to hit this year on the draft lotto.

If I believed that Macc's future was tied necessarily to this draft, I'd agree with you.  But I don't think that's true.

I think Bowles is on the 'hot seat' for sure...doesn't mean he needs to make the playoffs or anything to stay, but he needs to show some a) ability to put players in position to succeed; b. the ability to make some smart game time decisions  and game plans and c) maintain a locker room.

Don't see Woody firing Macc since he didn't hire Bowles, unless a potential BIG NAME guy comes along as a potential GM.  Takes longer to assess a GMs skills than a HC and I think Macc gets a chance to hire his guy if Bowles tanks this year.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, cant wait said:

trading back is the best way to get value in this draft but if you can't get a good deal take s. thomas, one of the safeties or watson

Watson's not value at 6. He has one of the weakest arms you'll see. He may end up being good but he sure isn't value. Value is a guy that is highly likely to succeed. Most people that like him assume winning in college will translate to the pros. Like it did with tebow and manziel....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, dbatesman said:

It sure seems like the number of ways this could go hilariously wrong is way higher than the number of ways it could work out even ok, let alone good.

If Mac were smart, he'd use this pick as an excuse to call Harbaugh and Swinney all week to sell them on how open the Jets job will be in a few months and, oh yeah, how about these Michigan/Clemon prospects you got there Jimmy/Dabo?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Watson's not value at 6. He has one of the weakest arms you'll see. He may end up being good but he sure isn't value. Value is a guy that is highly likely to succeed. Most people that like him assume winning in college will translate to the pros. Like it did with tebow and manziel....

yeah he's not a value pick I agree, but if the team is dead set on a QB at 6 he's probably the most justifiable pick there

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, cant wait said:

yeah he's not a value pick I agree, but if the team is dead set on a QB at 6 he's probably the most justifiable pick there

No one's getting a 'value pick' based on the experts/consensus perceived player attributes at QB at 6....that's the point.

the 'value', if there is any, is the position at 6 of a QB, not necessarily the particular player...this is where you have to hope your GM can see things in someone at the QB position  that other GMs cannot.  If you have no QB (and I do not know what the Jets feelings on Hack are to any great extent), and you'd consider any available QB as a possible choice later in the first round but likely gone by your 2nd round pick, then the pick is a 'value pick' purely based on his position and importance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You don't use a top 10 pick on a safety or a CB, period. I don't care if the safety is the next Ronnie Lott. In today's NFL you pass on him at #6. If you're going to make a risky pick, then make it on a QB. Go down swinging. F*ck Kiper, Mayock, and the rest of the draftniks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

You don't use a top 10 pick on a safety or a CB, period. I don't care if the safety is the next Ronnie Lott. In today's NFL you pass on him at #6. If you're going to make a risky pick, then make it on a QB. Go down swinging. F*ck Kiper, Mayock, and the rest of the draftniks. 

Yeah leave Earl Thomas on the board because you want to draft Tim Tebow (that's basically what you would be doing if you drafted Watson over Adams).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Yeah leave Earl Thomas on the board because you want to draft Tim Tebow (that's basically what you would be doing if you drafted Watson over Adams).

I'd rather for reach for a QB than take a safety because Mel Kiper that's where the value is. F*ck that bullsh!t. 

I don't care if it isn't Watson. Mahomes at 6. **** it, Nate Peterman at 6. A safety does nothing for this team. Having a QB is the only thing that matters. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

You don't use a top 10 pick on a safety or a CB, period. I don't care if the safety is the next Ronnie Lott. In today's NFL you pass on him at #6. If you're going to make a risky pick, then make it on a QB. Go down swinging. F*ck Kiper, Mayock, and the rest of the draftniks. 

Ronnie Lott is way too much football player for today's kinder, gentler, lukewarm NFL. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Tinstar said:

I wish the Jets had a QB as good as Tannehill  . 

I think people believe that Trubisky could be at least as good as Tannehill.  I agree with you. Start with that, then you can upgrade.

3 hours ago, johnnysd said:

If we has a QB drafting those positions make sense, but we HAVE to develop some QB over the next 2 years and our ability to truly compete us exceedingly unlikely. Because if this I believe the Jets should do everything they can to protect a young QB and protect him. We cannot keep ignoring the offense.

Although the Jets have drafted more defense, the have spent substantial FA resources on offense.  Forte was signed to catch the ball-I don't know what Gailey was doing last year.  Decker, Beachum, Winters, Carpenter, Johnson, Ijalana.   The Jets will take a TE with one of their top 4 picks.  If I had to guess, it will be a CB, S and TE, maybe a repeat.  Just don't know the players or order.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, varjet said:

Not at 6.  Rule Number 1 for NFL Drafting-don't assume a player will be hurt less in the NFL than they were in college.

It's amazing how many people don't get that. If a player is always injured then he is always going to be injured.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, tuffhand said:

It's amazing how many people don't get that. If a player is always injured then he is always going to be injured.

Its genetic.  Some people get hurt more than others.  My brothers and I, all active in completely different ways, have all needed the same knee surgery.  If a player is wound to get hurt, they will get hurt.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, tuffhand said:

It's amazing how many people don't get that. If a player is always injured then he is always going to be injured.

Agreed, you want to take a flyer on some of these injured talented guys take them in the 3rd round.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...