Michael Thomas (Saints) vs. Chad Hansen

[win4ever]

The Chad Hansen pick was curious to me because I thought they would go a different direction, with Stewart already picked ahead of him.  However, if you look further into the pick, it seems like a pick influenced by John Morton, who had great success with Michael Thomas.   

Stats:

Michael Thomas:

56 catches, 781 yards, 9 TD, 13.9 YPC

Chad Hansen: 

92 catches, 1249 yards, 11 TD, 13.6 YPC

However, they played in two completely different systems with QBs that have vastly different skill sets.  

The Buckeyes passed 324 times during Thomas' last year, and he caught 56 passes, so right around 17.3% of the attempts on offense.  They threw for 2454 yards, of which 781 was caught by Thomas, or about  31.8% of the yards thrown.   The Buckeyes threw 19 TDs, of which 9 was caught by Thomas, or a tremendous 47.4%.

The Bears passed the ball a whopping 621 times during Hansen's last year, and he caught 92 passes, so around 14.8% of the attempts on offense.  They threw for 4304 yards, of which 1249 was caught by Hansen, or about 29% of the yards thrown.   The Bears threw 37 TDs, of which 11 were caught by Hansen, a rate of 29.7%.

Unfortunately, Thomas also has a 3 game advantage in games played in their final season because Hansen only played in 10 games, while Thomas played in 13 games.  I can't find snap counts, so I can't break it down per snap.  However, if we go by the games then the averages come out to:

Thomas: 4.3 receptions, 60 yards, .69 TD per games. 

Hansen:  9.2 receptions, 124.9 yards, 1.1 TDs per games

While unscientific, to normalize those stats based on per attempt basis:

Thomas has a 3 game advantage, but Cal only played 12 games last year.  It's hard to equalize the stats without nitpicking.  Hansen missed two games, or 12.5% of the season.  So if we reduce the numbers based on the snaps missed, then it would come out a bit differently.  The two games that he missed were the Oregon and USC games.  In those games, Cal threw 114 passes, 658 yards, and 7 TDs.  So those were the stats that Hansen weren't part of because he didn't play in the game.  

So, let's subtract 114 from 621, which equals 507 passes.  Let's also subtract 658 yards from 4304, which equals 3646 yards.  Also subtract 7 TDs from 37, which equals 30 TDs

Now, let's see what Hansen's stats are on a per attempt basis for games that he did play.  

They threw 507 passes in games he played, and he caught 92 passes, which would be 18.1% (Thomas at 17.3%).  They threw for 3646 yards, of which he caught 1249, thus he caught 34.2% of the yards thrown (Thomas at 31.8%).  They threw for 30 TDs while Hansen was in there, of which he caught 11, which is 36.7% (Thomas at 47.4%).

Physical attributes:

Thomas:  6'3" - 212 lbs - 32.12 arm length - 10.5 hand size - 1.55 Ten yard dash - 2.63 Twenty Yard Dash - 4.57 Forty - 35" vertical - 126" broad jump - 6.8 three cone drill - 4.13 Twenty yard shuttle - 18 reps

Hansen:  6'2" - 202 lbs - 32.12 arm length - 10.12 hand size - 1.56 Ten yard dash - 2.63 Twenty Yard Dash - 4.47 Forty - 35" vertical- 119" broad jump - 6.74 three cone drill - 4.13 twenty yard shuttle - 11 reps

So one of the biggest knocks on Hansen is the limited route tree that he ran in college.  In fact, the best article I have on it is from reception perception.  

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-understanding-chad-hansens-narrow-limited-assignment/

Here is the relevant quote:  

Quote

A whopping 80.8 percent of Hansen’s routes run fall under the screen, slant, curl or nine. That’s one of the more skewed and unbalanced charts we’ve seen in Reception Perception this year.

Now, the same website did a breakdown of Thomas last year near the halfway point of the season.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_thomas16

Here is the relevant quote:  

Quote

When looking over his route usage chart, we can see the Saints aren’t asking much of Thomas. This is good coaching. In order to get your rookie assets on the field, why not limit what you put on their plate in order to maximize their strengths while not asking them to absorb too much information? Of his 38 routes run against the Chiefs, a whopping 71.1 percent of them were slants, curls or nines.

So Thomas was used very much in the same way that Hansen was primarily used in college, which should mean that he could see the same type of systemic usage with Morton this year if he plays.  

This isn't to say Chad Hansen is the next Michael Thomas by any means.  However, their production is somewhat close in their final year of college, their physical attributes are extremely similar, and Morton and the Saints utilized Thomas similarly to how Hansen was utilized in college.  It's hard to just compare college stats because they do not play the same talent base nor the same system.  The Air Raid system run by the Bears tends to inflate stats for receivers, so you have to take the stats with a grain of salt.  The run first offense of OSU (especially with Barrett and Elliot in the backfield) also stifles the stats for Thomas.  However, the counter argument is that defenses had to be prepared for the running game vs. OSU, which allowed favorable match ups to their receivers.  

I don't think Chad Hansen is Michael Thomas, and neither does the NFL when you realize where they were picked.  However, they share very similar production, physical ability, and possible NFL route tree projection.  The fact that Morton worked with Thomas last year should really help.  Also keep in mind that Thomas played last year with a HOF caliber QB, while Hansen will likely be catching passes from QBs that would be happy to be called league average this season.  

[win4ever]

Wanted to add that this article mentions Thomas as a role model to how he will be used this season:

http://breakingfootball.com/2017-nfl-draft-chad-hansen-scouting-report/

Also, wanted to add in some reception perception stats as well.

Michael Thomas had a success rate of 69.4% against man coverage in college, while Chad Hansen had a success rate of 64.6%.

Michael Thomas had a success rate of 77.1% against zone coverage in college, while Chad Hansen had a success rate of 83%.

Michael Thomas had a success rate of 66.7% against press coverage in college, while Chad Hansen had a success rate of 67.3%.  

Michael Thomas had a success rate of 50% on contested catches in college, while Chad Hansen had a success rate of 25%.

Also according to route tree, these are the routes that Thomas ran with the highest frequency in descending order:

Curl, Slant, Nine, Post, Screen, Dig, Comeback, Out (tie with comeback), Flat, Corner

Chad Hansen:

Curl, Nine, Slant, Screen, Dig, Post, Comeback, Comeback, Flat, Corner, Out (He has a 0% here)

http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-2016-nfl-draft-prospects-results.html

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-understanding-chad-hansens-narrow-limited-assignment/

Onto success rates vs. each routes:

Michael Thomas had a 87.5% SRVC (success rate vs coverage) on screen passes, while Hansen had a success rate of 95.5%.

Michael Thomas had a 75% SVRC on slat routes, while Hansen had a success rate of 82.2%.

Michael Thomas had a 85.7% SVRC on curl routes, while Hansen had a success rate of 71.4%.

Michael Thomas had a 85.7% SVRC on dig routes, while Hansen had a success rate of 76.9%.

Michael Thomas had a 80% SVRC on post routes, while Hansen had a success rate of 75%.

Michael Thomas had a 76.5% SVRC on nine routes, while Hansen had a success rate of 57.4%.

Michael Thomas had a 50% SVRC on corner routes, while Hansen had a success rate of 50%.

Michael Thomas had a 80% SVRC on out routes, Hansen did not run any out routes.

Michael Thomas had a 20% SVRC on comeback routes, Hansen had a success rate of 80%.

Michael Thomas had a 66.7% SVRC on flat routes, Hansen had a success rate of 75%.

 

Michael Thomas went down on first contact 66.7% of his "in space" opportunities (15 total), while Hansen went down 60% of the time.

Michael Thomas broke the first tackle 20% of the time, while Hansen broke the first tackle 40% of the time.  

Michael Thomas broke 2+ tackles on 13.3% of the plays, while Hansen has a 0% rate.  

 

[Obrien2Toon]

Cool stuff.

Big thing I think of when I see these stats is that they actually play defense in the big 10 though.

 

 

[win4ever]

30 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

Cool stuff.

Big thing I think of when I see these stats is that they actually play defense in the big 10 though.

 

 

Thanks.

I'm not so sure it's that vast.  I went and looked at passing rating allowed based on the schedules faced.  It's not the greatest stat to use, but I can't find any metric that measures pass defense for college thoroughly.   So based on game logs of last their last year:

Thomas:

VTech (50th)

Hawaii ((98th)

Northern Illinois (39th)  Surprised

Western Michigan (79th)

Indiana (71st)

Maryland (107th)

Penn State (26th)

Rutgers (117th)

Minnesota (18th) again surprised

Illinois (28th)

Michigan State (68th)

Michigan (1st)

Notre Dame (49th)

If we add this up and divide it by 13, the average comes to 57.7 as the average ranking of defense faced.  

Hansen: 

Hawaii (114th)

San Diego State (22nd)

Texas (85th)

Arizona State (122nd)

Utah (41st)

Oregon State (33rd)

Washington (5th)

Washington State (59th)

Stanford (23)

UCLA (6th)

If we add this up and divide by 10, the average comes out to 51 as the average ranking of defense faced.  

Now this is the be all and end all of stats, but in terms of defensive rankings for passer ratings against, Hansen and Thomas are pretty neck and neck.  I wish there was a secondary unit rating system, but I can't seem to find it. 

EDIT:  https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating?date=2017-01-10

Link for the website I used.  

 

[rangerous]

pretty cool breakdown of a players stats.  at least hansen can run more than one route unlike stephen hill who could only run a go route.

[sourceworx]

No offense to you win4ever, but if people spent as much time researching and analyzing the politicians they vote for as they do their favorite football team's draft picks, maybe we'd elect better people to run our country.

Again, not knocking anyone personally. Just an observation.

[#27TheDominator]

19 hours ago, win4ever said:

Michael Thomas had a success rate of 50% on contested catches in college, while Chad Hansen had a success rate of 25%.

Bad thing is that this might be the largest disparity in their percentages.  I'd bet that way more passes are contested in the NFL.

[win4ever]

pretty cool breakdown of a players stats.  at least hansen can run more than one route unlike stephen hill who could only run a go route.

Hansen is more advanced than Hill for sure. Although much like Hill, the one thing that really worries me is the system, and the adjustment period to get acclimated to the NFL.

The other guy I compared Hansen to is Steadman Bailey, which I'm guessing is the worst case scenario here. Although I don't have success rate stats for him.

[win4ever]

No offense to you win4ever, but if people spent as much time researching and analyzing the politicians they vote for as they do their favorite football team's draft picks, maybe we'd elect better people to run our country.
Again, not knocking anyone personally. Just an observation.

I think there are people that do spend time doing that, it just doesn't get as much attention. Same for sports as well, because information quells discussion.

It's also not as fun, because politics on a macro level is corrupted. You are picking between Fitz, Geno, McCown and just hoping to tread water. The only place where a voter really has power is the micro level in the state/county level but there isn't time leftover to invest in it.

[win4ever]

Bad thing is that this might be the largest disparity in their percentages.  I'd bet that way more passes are contested in the NFL.

This is actually a concerning stat although it's a very short sample size. Watching his tape, he seemed to make well on contested catches. I would have loved to see more information on it, but it is concerning.

Just from a personal scouting point, I thought he did well with difficult catches and using his body to block out defenders, but I also don't have all of his games.

[#27TheDominator]

Interesting you pick Bailey.  He is considerably shorter, but does have the long arms.  I think he is slower too.  I hear that Bailey is still hoping to come back.  I'm sure he will get a tryout, but that is a long, rough road.  Bailey also had a couple of drug suspensions.  I think substance abuse guys generally have a more difficult time going all in for football, so I would tend to avoid them. 

[chirorob]

3 hours ago, sourceworx said:

No offense to you win4ever, but if people spent as much time researching and analyzing the politicians they vote for as they do their favorite football team's draft picks, maybe we'd elect better people to run our country.

Again, not knocking anyone personally. Just an observation.

When it comes to politics, it's like you have 2 options when you go to the bathroom, one is massive diarhea, and one is crippling constipation.   Analyze all you want, but either way your butt hurts the next day.

[win4ever]

47 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Interesting you pick Bailey.  He is considerably shorter, but does have the long arms.  I think he is slower too.  I hear that Bailey is still hoping to come back.  I'm sure he will get a tryout, but that is a long, rough road.  Bailey also had a couple of drug suspensions.  I think substance abuse guys generally have a more difficult time going all in for football, so I would tend to avoid them. 

I compared Bailey to him when he was drafted because he was in a similar system and all.  

Bailey:     5'11" - 193 lbs - 32.75 arm length- 9.8 hand size - 1.59 ten yard dash - 2.63 Twenty Yard Dash - 4.53 Forty - 34.5" vertical- 117" broad jump- 6.81 three cone drill - 4.09 twenty yard shuttle - 11 reps

Hansen:  6'2" - 202 lbs - 32.12 arm length - 10.12 hand size - 1.56 Ten yard dash - 2.63 Twenty Yard Dash - 4.47 Forty - 35" vertical- 119" broad jump - 6.74 three cone drill - 4.13 twenty yard shuttle - 11 reps

Besides the size, they were pretty identical.  

In his last year, he caught 21% of the overall passes thrown (Hansen 18%), 37% yards (Hansen 34%), and a ridiculous 56% of TDs thrown (Hansen 36%).  

The issue is of course that these are base statistics and we can't go deeper because websites like Reception Perception doesn't chart Bailey.  It also helped Bailey that Austin was just so dynamic in college that other receivers just got less attention.  We saw it with Dwayne Jarret at USC when Reggie Bush was in college, where he just had a great season with Bush around, and then regressed a bit going into the next year, when most players improve.  

With Hansen, we don't have the secondary dynamic guy, in fact that whole receiving core was remade last year.  We also don't have a running threat like Geno Smith in the pocket (say what you want to say about Geno with the Jets- he was a stud in college) causing concern for defenses.  I would love to see how often Bailey beat coverage and all, but can't find the information.  '

I think Thomas is the best case scenario and Bailey is the worst case scenario.  I think Bailey got hurt badly by being with the Rams because he mainly played with Austin Davis, Shaun Hill, Nick Foles, and Case Keenum.  

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, win4ever said:

This is actually a concerning stat although it's a very short sample size. Watching his tape, he seemed to make well on contested catches. I would have loved to see more information on it, but it is concerning.

Just from a personal scouting point, I thought he did well with difficult catches and using his body to block out defenders, but I also don't have all of his games.

 

Yeah, sample size would be pretty important on some of these stats.  Reading your first post, I am expecting a ton of "safe" pass plays.  Bubble screens, slants and the like.  Best case is that we see Enunwa and Stewart trucking DBs for decent gains.  Bright side is that those two appear like they will be excellent blockers in that game too. 

[sourceworx]

46 minutes ago, chirorob said:

When it comes to politics, it's like you have 2 options when you go to the bathroom, one is massive diarhea, and one is crippling constipation.   Analyze all you want, but either way your butt hurts the next day.

LOL nicely put.

[win4ever]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Yeah, sample size would be pretty important on some of these stats.  Reading your first post, I am expecting a ton of "safe" pass plays.  Bubble screens, slants and the like.  Best case is that we see Enunwa and Stewart trucking DBs for decent gains.  Bright side is that those two appear like they will be excellent blockers in that game too. 

Yeah, the system calls for a decent amount of safe passes, but they did take a good amount of shots down the field.  

 

I usually like to watch prospects against teams with good defenses and are technically sound, because any pro level athlete can beat guys that are starters on these low level teams.  

Just in this tape:

He shows very good release on inside slants consistently at the start of the game.  The very first play is a very good route, but notice the movement right before he turns around for the ball.  He fakes out the defender with a slight shift to the outside, throws the defender off balance, which opens him up to run down the field.  Although, in the NFL, he probably gets tackled before the end zone.  

 

Now, skip forward to about the 2:45 mark, and notice Thomas doing something similar, although it's in much more physical form.  He has to run an in out, but right before he breaks, he moves to the outside a bit, before breaking in.  This helps him get separation from the corner for the pass.  Thomas is obviously covered better in the NFL than Hansen at college, but it's a subtle move that can pay dividends.   

Back to the Hansen tape, and where things might be concerning his route running.  Fast forward to the 1:20 mark, and this is a major problem for Hansen in his routes.  He gets off the line of scrimmage with inside leverage, and then he throws it away by drifting towards the sidelines.  If you watch his tape, you will see this route numerous times.  In college, the DBs aren't as physically gifted, so you can get away with it.  However, in the NFL, the DB is going to take back inside leverage and all of a sudden the QB has to make the perfect over the shoulder pass on a play where the receiver achieved his goal of taking inside leverage. 

If you fast forward to the 2:50 mark, you will also see another issue with his routes.  He turns up field in the route instead of a straight cut, which cuts off angles.  He has to run straight into the opening to maintain his separation, otherwise the CB chasing him can cut down on the throwing angle and jump the route.  He's forcing the hand of the QB to throw only a specific type pass here instead of taking advantage of Hansen's ability to get the inside leverage.  If you fast forward to 4:40, you will see the defender do exactly that on a play where Hansen had inside leverage.  However, when he started to move up field, it naturally closed the horizontal gap between him and the defender, which allowed the guy to swat the ball away.  

The last play on the tape is where he does win a contested pass, but he needs to get better at because he's trying to catch the ball through the defender.  He needs to undercut this route when he locates this ball. but instead he catches it through the defender.  

He definitely shows potential, but he is also raw, which is pretty much the same thing people said about Thomas last year.  Thomas made huge strides in his route running ability, and his ability to play the ball in the air last year.  If Morton can make the same adjustments, then Hansen could surprise.  

[#27TheDominator]

Since you are a tape guru, how did he look against Washington?  That secondary was stacked.  I saw he had a TD, but they were routed like 66-27 or something like that.  Don't have time to look now.

[win4ever]

11 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Since you are a tape guru, how did he look against Washington?  That secondary was stacked.  I saw he had a TD, but they were routed like 66-27 or something like that.  Don't have time to look now.

I thought he looked good, although I don't think he played the full game.  I went by the Davis Webb tape for that game, and I didn't notice him out there on the field once it got ugly.  I think he was coming back from injury and they took it safe with him once they were getting crushed. 

He had the same route issue where he gets inside leverage and then floats back a couple of times.  The TD was on zone coverage where he just found a hole, but I thought he matched up well against Jones.  He beat him a few times, and then got beat a few times, so it was a decent back and forth.  I can't really tell from the game tapes because it's impossible to tell what coverage the defense was in most of the time.  He definitely didn't get shut down by Jones, although there were a few occasions where Jones just physically pushed him off the route.