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The Next Position Pick:


win4ever

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15 hours ago, adb280z said:

Other than Leonard Williams, yes I would.

Interesting.  

15 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

I wanna look it up before I answer.

 

Im goina 

Lol

6 hours ago, Dcat said:

Not knowing who the next picks at those positions were, I'd have to say yes I'd do it.  Here's why:

2015:  The only player I love from 2015 is Leo.  Would hate to lose him, but the rest of the draft IMO stunk: Devin Smith, Mauldin, Petty, Jarvis Harrison, Deon Simon.  Sacrificing Leo for the opportunity to improve with the other 5 would be a tough call (of course, improvement is not guaranteed since I don't know who the new position players would be at those positions).

2016: Lee, Hack, Jenkins, Burris, Shell, punter.  I'd make the blind swap in a nanosecond because I despise the 1st two picks.  I like the others, but awfulness of the Lee and Hack override my hopes for Jenkins, Burris and Shell.

Now I'm going to go look up who the next picks were at each position to see just how stupid my decision really is.

I think the draft was weak in general in 2015, because the choices aren't great right after either.  I don't think any of the guys later in the draft would be worth it.

2016 is much more interesting because it really depends on Lee.  If you think Lee is a horrible player, then making the switch works.  However, I think Lee still has plenty of potential so I kept going back and forth on it.  

6 hours ago, Dcat said:

OK

ok I looked it up now.  We would be better off making that switch for 2016 hands down.  It's debatable for 2015, although I like the alternatives and I'd do it. I stand by my decision.

Yeah, I went back and forth on 2016, because I wasn't sure how much value I can attribute to Lee.  

6 hours ago, JiF said:

Hard to do without looking but I'll try.  And this will be even harder because I dont recall what certain players were listed as for example; DT, DE, OLB, LB etc.

2015.  No.  Leo is a beast.  And who was the next guy taken at the same position?  Preston Smith?  Good player but I love Leo.  Were Ray and Beasley both listed at LB'ers or was Ray a DE?  Was Leo a DE or DT?  This is what I mean.  Hard to do this without knowing the exact position they were listed as in the draft.  Still.  No.  Leo is the man.

2016.  Yes.  Lee was a terrible pick for numerous reason.  The better player was taken where an undersized LB should be taken in Deon Jones followed by Sau Cravens in the mid 2nd round.  But again, wasnt Lee listed as an OLB?  So who was next, Jaylon Smith?  I mean, clearly the better prospect but homey doesnt even have 2 legs.  lol  So then who was after that, Miles Jack?  Same situation as before.  Better player but injured at the time.  And Lee is playing ILB not OLB which is my point, this hard to do considering what they're listed as and what they end up actually playing. 

Beasely was listed at DE, but we all know he's a LB really.  I kept him in my list because that's what they listed him as, although the real one afterwards is Arik Armstead.  

The next one was Kevin Dodd from the Titans, right before Jaylon Smith and Myles Jack.  For Lee, I figured to just go with LB since the next guy listed at ILB is Ragland.

5 hours ago, Freemanm said:

The answer to that depends on whether you think Dak Prescott is overrated. Would he suck on the Jets? Did his rookie year success have a lot to do with playing behind a massive O-line and having Ezekiel Elliot to hand the ball off to, or is he really that talented?

Dak wouldn't figure into this, since it was Jacoby Brisset drafted right after.

5 hours ago, Lil Woody said:

I love how everyone bangs the table crying about not taking Dak Prescott.  I'd bet he was the QB the least amount of people on message boards banged the table for. If you did, good for you. But almost nobody in America across 32 fanbases did.  Kid was an undersized prospect who got hit with a DWI in the weeks leading up to the draft. I remember people banging the table for Russell Wilson, I remember people banging the table for Drew Brees, I remember a ton of people banging the table for Johnny Manziel.  When it came to Dak Prescott it was mainly crickets. Hell Colt McCoy and Christian Ponder got more pre draft love than Dak did.

I remember a couple of people were on him until the DWI, then the barrage of how stupid could he be posts sprang up.  I also think there was some concern about the system he came from, because his coach was Dan Mullen, who coached up Alex Smith, Tebow,  and Chris Leak, so people wondered if the whole running QB system helped him put up stats.  The reality is that, he went to a perfect team for him with a dynamic WR, an amazing line, and a star RB.  It reminds me (in a much more successful way) of Sanchez where he was just thrust into a great situation and looked good.  Although, Dak has done much better than Sanchez at any point but I don't think he comes close to the same level of success in other situations.  

5 hours ago, Skeptable said:

Sure Everyone Hates Mac's draft right now because last season was a sh*t show but the players he selected last year played well when they played as rookies....

2016: (No Way... Easy Choice)

Lee: OLB sure we might have been able to better here but Vilma had a tough rookie year too. I say inconclusive, but if I remember the guy selected after him at the position has the ability to be a superstar if he recovers.

Hack: Seriously you want the next QB selected as a second rounder and think we would be better off??? haha ok

Jenkins: had a solid year, I liked the pick at the time

Burris: Has a chance to be the #2 CB on this team... no thanks

Shell: Future starting Tackle on the Jets... again no thanks

Loc: the punter... who cares...

Peake: was there a WR even selected after him? and we might have the next two selections on the team anyway with Robby Anderson and Jalin Marshall

2015: (Maybe... But giving up Leo would make switching a failure)

Leo: Potential to be a perennial all star (Nope)

Smith: Bust next WR would be great here (It could be a sack of potatoes and be better then this pick)

Mauldin: Not sure who the next LB is here but I think sticking here is the better choice

Petty: Yeah well another failed QB pick but the one drafted after him will fail too

Harrison: Sure I would take another player here to make up for a non-player

Simon: Back-up DT works for a seventh rounder

 

It's a tough one on 2016, mainly because Lee is so erratic when it comes to evaluations.  On one hand, I see him be right there for pass coverage and think that marginal improvements could make him good.  On the other hand, I see him out of place numerous times as well and think maybe he's just not that good.  I don't know what to think of him honestly at times.  If you are optimistic, then you don't switch.  If you are pessimistic on him, then switch.  I go back and forth on him. 

5 hours ago, varjet said:

I don't know how you can try and switch players at the same position out.   I think in the 1st round you really need to go BPA at a position of need.  In retrospect the 2015 and 2016 drafts were very week.  I do point out how good both Winston and Mariota are looking.  We missed on them because we won garbage time of season games.

So the Leo pick failed my test, but he is so good that that right answer was to let one of the other DEs go.  The Jets could have done that with Mo and received a comp pick.  Now they need to pay him $20mm next year.  

The Devin Smith pick was a questionable one if he was healthy.   There were other good players picked after Smith that should have been on the Jets board.  I like to look at the 5-10 picks after.  We could use Preston Smith, McKinney and Kendricks, among others.

2 37 New York Jets Devin Smith  WR Ohio State Big Ten  
  2 38 Washington Redskins Preston Smith  DE Mississippi State SEC  
  2 39 Chicago Bears Eddie Goldman  DT Florida State ACC  
  2 40 Tennessee Titans Dorial Green-Beckham  WR Missouri SEC from New York Giants  [R2 - 2]
  2 41 Carolina Panthers Devin Funchess  WR Michigan Big Ten from St. Louis [R2 - 3]
  2 42 Atlanta Falcons Jalen Collins  CB LSU SEC  
  2 43 Houston Texans Benardrick McKinney  ILB Mississippi State SEC from Cleveland [R2 - 4]
  2 44 New Orleans Saints Hau'oli Kikaha  OLB Washington Pac-12  
  2 45 Minnesota Vikings Eric Kendricks  ILB UCLA Pac-12 2014 Butkus Award and Lott Trophy winner

After Lee the following players were picked.  The receivers do not look great, but the Jets were not picking one because they picked Devin the year before.

1 21 Houston Texans Will Fuller  WR Notre Dame Ind. (FBS) from Washington [R1 - 8]
  1 22 Washington Redskins Josh Doctson  WR TCU Big 12 from Houston [R1 - 9]
  1 23 Minnesota Vikings Laquon Treadwell  WR Ole Miss SEC  
  1 24 Cincinnati Bengals William Jackson III  CB Houston The American  
  1 25 Pittsburgh Steelers Artie Burns  CB Miami (FL) ACC  
  1 26 Denver Broncos Paxton Lynch  QB Memphis The American from Seattle [R1 - 10]
  1 27 Green Bay Packers Kenny Clark  DT UCLA Pac-12  
  1 28 San Francisco 49ers Joshua Garnett  G Stanford Pac-12 from Kansas City [R1 - 11]
  1 New England Patriots Selection forfeited as a result of the Deflategate scandal[Forfeited 1]
  1 29 Arizona Cardinals Robert Nkemdiche  DT Ole Miss SEC  
  1 30 Carolina Panthers Vernon Butler  DT Louisiana Tech C-USA  
  1 31 Seattle Seahawks Germain Ifedi  OT Texas A&M SEC from Denver [R1 - 12]
  2 32

Cleveland Brown

Emmanuel Ogbah  DE Oklahoma State Big 12

I mainly used the very next player at the position because if we go far back down the list, I'm sure there will be studs, and in retrospect, we can all say we'd pick the guy that turned into a stud.  Sort of like confirmation bias, we can all go back and pick out points in Dak's tape or Jordan Howard's tape and be like "There, see, that was a sign of greatness" after the fact.  

4 hours ago, PepPep said:

Really? I can understand that you may have not liked the picks but the whether Hack and Lee develop into quality NFL starters is still up for debate simply b/c they have had so little experience in the NFL. There is simply no way to argue against that. Hack has yet to play and Lee played one season- showing some promise. 

I get the Hack hate, that was a reach pick (although I didn't like Brisset either, I thought Cook would go higher), so it's all potential for him at this point.  The Lee one is interesting because we need speed badly.  Our LBs were some of the slowest out there and it kills us at times, especially on third downs when TE/RB can run around them.  He had his moments in the sun and in the dog house, but his evaluation isn't close to being completed.  I like to see him next to Davis because Harris was a major liability in coverage, so hopefully he learns to take better angles and turn around for the ball more.  

4 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Dorial Green Becam was the next WR so he might be playing, but he is already on to his 2nd team.

I'll be honest, I was on him for that second round pick.  I thought Dorial would be a monster if he got his head right, but apparently he hasn't.  I talked about this at the time, but I was listening to a draft podcast at the time from a guy that covered him in Missouri, and he said the kid was basically dumb as a rock when it came to learning football at first.  His first season, they had to line him up near their sidelines, because he couldn't decipher the audibles.  So when a QB called an audible, he would literally turn to the sideline and some coach would tell him what the play was.  My thinking was that if he got more committed to his craft, he would be much better since he has the physical skills.  Apparently not the case.   

4 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Trust me after looking it up, and following the OP's criteria swapping is not the right answer.

2015 seems like a hold, 2016 really depends on Lee. 

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4 hours ago, j4jets said:

Without looking, its tough. You lose out on Leonard. Players like him don't come around too often to NY. I'll stick to it. 

This should've been a poll. Can a mod create a poll here? @Maxman?

You are right, I should have made this a poll.  I screwed up on that.  

4 hours ago, Obrien2Toon said:

I thought we were all about BPA,

why do we have to stay at the same position 

It's hard to determine BPA after the fact, because most people will see Hackenberg pick and say well BPA is Dak.  Or Lorenzo Mauldin pick and say BPA is David Johnson.  

I figured with the limitation of the next pick at the same position, we're picking from two franchises that made picks from the pool and compare them.  

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2 hours ago, win4ever said:

Ok, since enough time has passed, let's see the results

Leo.......Vic Beasely (a bit complicated because he's more a LB) or Arik Armstead

Devin Smith........Dorial Green-Beckham

Lorenzo Mauldin......Jordan Hicks

Bryce Petty...........Brett Hundley

Jarvis Harrison.......Robert Myers

Deon Simon.........No one after him

 

2016

Darron Lee.........Kevin Dodd

Hackenberg.........Jacoby Brisset

Jordan Jenkins.......Kyler Fackrell

Justin Burris............Rashard Robinson

Brandon Shell........Halapoulivaati Vaitai

Lachlan Edwards.....No one

Charone Peake.....Kenny Lawler

I didn't do BPA because that's obviously subjective.  We can all look at the list now and say, yeah we wanted Dak or Jordan Howard.  

New Rule: you don't get to second guess Macc even if you're right

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3 hours ago, win4ever said:

Ok, since enough time has passed, let's see the results

Leo.......Vic Beasely (a bit complicated because he's more a LB) or Arik Armstead

Devin Smith........Dorial Green-Beckham

Lorenzo Mauldin......Jordan Hicks

Bryce Petty...........Brett Hundley

Jarvis Harrison.......Robert Myers

Deon Simon.........No one after him

 

2016

Darron Lee.........Kevin Dodd

Hackenberg.........Jacoby Brisset

Jordan Jenkins.......Kyler Fackrell

Justin Burris............Rashard Robinson

Brandon Shell........Halapoulivaati Vaitai

Lachlan Edwards.....No one

Charone Peake.....Kenny Lawler

I didn't do BPA because that's obviously subjective.  We can all look at the list now and say, yeah we wanted Dak or Jordan Howard.  

I forgot about Dodd.  I thought the next OLB after Lee was Jaylon Smith, who was drafted right after Dodd.  Myles Jack a couple of picks later.  Would rather have Jaylon Smith

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5 hours ago, Dcat said:

I forgot about Dodd.  I thought the next OLB after Lee was Jaylon Smith, who was drafted right after Dodd.  Myles Jack a couple of picks later.  Would rather have Jaylon Smith

I wanted one of them, was really hoping Smith would fall in the second.  I'll be honest, I was surprised that Jack had a disappointing season because his college tape definitely said first round talent.  I could see how he fell because teams felt like his career might be short with knee issues, but he was pretty much a non factor last year for them, played like a quarter of the plays.  

Smith is intriguing and someone I would have taken a shot on too, but I think last year they were under the delusion of competing.  I have no excuses whatsoever for passing on Sydney Jones this year because he was probably top 2 CB in a loaded draft, and they passed on him for a safety during a rebuilding year.   

 

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I love how everyone bangs the table crying about not taking Dak Prescott.  I'd bet he was the QB the least amount of people on message boards banged the table for. If you did, good for you. But almost nobody in America across 32 fanbases did.  Kid was an undersized prospect who got hit with a DWI in the weeks leading up to the draft. I remember people banging the table for Russell Wilson, I remember people banging the table for Drew Brees, I remember a ton of people banging the table for Johnny Manziel.  When it came to Dak Prescott it was mainly crickets. Hell Colt McCoy and Christian Ponder got more pre draft love than Dak did.


Racism


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The next position pick essentially drops your draft position in many cases by almost a full round. That alone would generally mean lesser talent. 

If we did the same thing for the 'previous position pick', I think the answer would be yes to both drafts. I haven't looked it up but this assumes a better player than the original one. 

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this is a very difficult question even with the actual picks available.  the first thing that comes to mind is how the draft weighting is so top heavy.  that is a first round pick is worth many times more than the same pick in the second round and so it goes for round 3 through 7.  and after only two drafts, it's still too early to tell for most players.  obviously the devin smith pick is hard to justify given his injury history but at the time was he worth it?  this guy seems to have really bad luck.  darrin lee? imo there's some good talent there and to judge him after last season is simply unfair. the other thing is that a starter for one team may be on the bench on another.  i'll take it at face value that the jet players who have been drafted and are still on the team deserve to be there and also in the nfl.  that's the big separation between what mac has done versus idzik.  and also, to a great extent rex versus bowles. 

we'll see soon enough.

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21 hours ago, win4ever said:

Ok, since enough time has passed, let's see the results

Leo.......Vic Beasely (a bit complicated because he's more a LB) or Arik Armstead

Devin Smith........Dorial Green-Beckham

Lorenzo Mauldin......Jordan Hicks

Bryce Petty...........Brett Hundley

Jarvis Harrison.......Robert Myers

Deon Simon.........No one after him

 

2016

Darron Lee.........Kevin Dodd

Hackenberg.........Jacoby Brisset

Jordan Jenkins.......Kyler Fackrell

Justin Burris............Rashard Robinson

Brandon Shell........Halapoulivaati Vaitai

Lachlan Edwards.....No one

Charone Peake.....Kenny Lawler

I didn't do BPA because that's obviously subjective.  We can all look at the list now and say, yeah we wanted Dak or Jordan Howard.  

Oh, you meant every position.  I was way off on what you were looking for in this exercise.  

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On 6/27/2017 at 9:28 AM, Lil Woody said:

I love how everyone bangs the table crying about not taking Dak Prescott.  I'd bet he was the QB the least amount of people on message boards banged the table for. If you did, good for you. But almost nobody in America across 32 fanbases did.  Kid was an undersized prospect who got hit with a DWI in the weeks leading up to the draft. I remember people banging the table for Russell Wilson, I remember people banging the table for Drew Brees, I remember a ton of people banging the table for Johnny Manziel.  When it came to Dak Prescott it was mainly crickets. Hell Colt McCoy and Christian Ponder got more pre draft love than Dak did.

in a way, its the fans fault that we didnt get Prescott

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9 hours ago, j4jets said:

The next position pick essentially drops your draft position in many cases by almost a full round. That alone would generally mean lesser talent. 

Mid we did the same thing for the 'previous position pick', I think the answer would be yes to both drafts. I haven't looked it up but this assumes a better player than the original one. 

It does mean less talent, but sometimes there are clusters of guys that go together.  For example, Stewart was picked a few spots ahead of Godwin/Henderson.  I would absolutely trade Stewart for Godwin right now, which was why I was looking at this to begin with.  

That is actually my next thread though.  Not quite as easy Yes/No btw.  

 

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

this is a very difficult question even with the actual picks available.  the first thing that comes to mind is how the draft weighting is so top heavy.  that is a first round pick is worth many times more than the same pick in the second round and so it goes for round 3 through 7.  and after only two drafts, it's still too early to tell for most players.  obviously the devin smith pick is hard to justify given his injury history but at the time was he worth it?  this guy seems to have really bad luck.  darrin lee? imo there's some good talent there and to judge him after last season is simply unfair. the other thing is that a starter for one team may be on the bench on another.  i'll take it at face value that the jet players who have been drafted and are still on the team deserve to be there and also in the nfl.  that's the big separation between what mac has done versus idzik.  and also, to a great extent rex versus bowles. 

we'll see soon enough.

Yeah, a lot of draft don't even have a full set of first round talent to match the 32 picks.  Sometimes when picking in the 20's, you are picking guys graded as second round talent overall.  Not saying, they can't or won't become stars, but the grades are lower so the odds are larger.  

I thought Lee showed good coverage, but had Kyle Wilson-itis in not turning around for the ball, but rather flailing his arms in hopes of hitting the ball.  Idzik's 2015 draft might go down as one of the worst in history given team needs/draft strengths.   

We need a FS?  Clinton Dix there for the taking.  Nope.  

We need weapons galore, and the deepest WR draft in history.  Nope, we pick two busts and one guy that was on the PC for pretty much the whole first year.  

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Oh, you meant every position.  I was way off on what you were looking for in this exercise.  

Yeah, I'm going for the draft as a whole to see what other teams did at the position right after.   

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On 6/27/2017 at 9:28 AM, Lil Woody said:

I love how everyone bangs the table crying about not taking Dak Prescott.  I'd bet he was the QB the least amount of people on message boards banged the table for. If you did, good for you. But almost nobody in America across 32 fanbases did.  Kid was an undersized prospect who got hit with a DWI in the weeks leading up to the draft. I remember people banging the table for Russell Wilson, I remember people banging the table for Drew Brees, I remember a ton of people banging the table for Johnny Manziel.  When it came to Dak Prescott it was mainly crickets. Hell Colt McCoy and Christian Ponder got more pre draft love than Dak did.

We had Pennington when Brees came out, so I didn't hear much noise for him.  However, I'm a Michigan fan and I can tell you no QB scared me more as an opponent than Brees.  Back then (and even now I guess) Purdue wasn't anything great in Football and Michigan clearly had a talent advantage.  But Brees was just so darn good, especially back then in the quick pace spread offense with many receivers.  I didn't follow the draft quite well back then, but I just remember fearing Brees at Purdue because he clearly stood out as a top tier QB back then.  There have been plenty of other guys that have better stats in college, but I'm not sure how many guys I've watched be that good with a talent disparity that wide facing top end competition like that.  

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2 hours ago, win4ever said:

It does mean less talent, but sometimes there are clusters of guys that go together.  For example, Stewart was picked a few spots ahead of Godwin/Henderson.  I would absolutely trade Stewart for Godwin right now, which was why I was looking at this to begin with.  

That is actually my next thread though.  Not quite as easy Yes/No btw.  

Don't forget the poll 

:thumbup:

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On 6/27/2017 at 4:28 PM, win4ever said:

You are right, I should have made this a poll.  I screwed up on that.  

It's hard to determine BPA after the fact, because most people will see Hackenberg pick and say well BPA is Dak.  Or Lorenzo Mauldin pick and say BPA is David Johnson.  

I figured with the limitation of the next pick at the same position, we're picking from two franchises that made picks from the pool and compare them.  

Interesting exercise.  I didn't get to follow the draft as much in 2015 and 2016 as I usually do, so I wasn't sure what to make of it.  The problem is that most of us that complain about Maccagnan's draft are complaining about poor positional value.  Drafting (another) 3-4 DE or S at the top of the draft.  ILB?  I know wikipedia has Lee as "OLB" but I don't think there was a person on the planet that saw him as a 3-4 OLB, I think nfl.com compared him to Ragland.  

19 hours ago, RESNewYork said:

Now this is a great thread. OP this is why I visit this site. Would love to see this same one after this season. 

This perfectly illustrates my point.  Maybe Maccagnan was right taking Adams over Hooker or Maye over Marcus Williams, but over a QB or pass rusher?  I doubt it.  I'm pretty sure that taking two safeties is not going to look good in hindsight, but these guys apparently love Marcus Maye..  

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13 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Interesting exercise.  I didn't get to follow the draft as much in 2015 and 2016 as I usually do, so I wasn't sure what to make of it.  The problem is that most of us that complain about Maccagnan's draft are complaining about poor positional value.  Drafting (another) 3-4 DE or S at the top of the draft.  ILB?  I know wikipedia has Lee as "OLB" but I don't think there was a person on the planet that saw him as a 3-4 OLB, I think nfl.com compared him to Ragland.  

This perfectly illustrates my point.  Maybe Maccagnan was right taking Adams over Hooker or Maye over Marcus Williams, but over a QB or pass rusher?  I doubt it.  I'm pretty sure that taking two safeties is not going to look good in hindsight, but these guys apparently love Marcus Maye..  

It's still a pretty awesome achievement to draft ILBs and safeties at premium picks and still pick the wrong guy in those slots. 

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17 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Interesting exercise.  I didn't get to follow the draft as much in 2015 and 2016 as I usually do, so I wasn't sure what to make of it.  The problem is that most of us that complain about Maccagnan's draft are complaining about poor positional value.  Drafting (another) 3-4 DE or S at the top of the draft.  ILB?  I know wikipedia has Lee as "OLB" but I don't think there was a person on the planet that saw him as a 3-4 OLB, I think nfl.com compared him to Ragland.  

This perfectly illustrates my point.  Maybe Maccagnan was right taking Adams over Hooker or Maye over Marcus Williams, but over a QB or pass rusher?  I doubt it.  I'm pretty sure that taking two safeties is not going to look good in hindsight, but these guys apparently love Marcus Maye..  

Oh, I'm not really saying Macc is actually good at drafting.  I just did this to compare the same positions picks before and after.  The other ones are too dependent on hindsight because we can all rely on hindsight to say we loved X,Y, Z.  

I actually don't blame him for picking a safety this year in the first, because it's a weak QB draft and a strong secondary draft.  I blame him as heck for picking Maye over Jones though.  

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17 minutes ago, win4ever said:

Oh, I'm not really saying Macc is actually good at drafting.  I just did this to compare the same positions picks before and after.  The other ones are too dependent on hindsight because we can all rely on hindsight to say we loved X,Y, Z.  

I actually don't blame him for picking a safety this year in the first, because it's a weak QB draft and a strong secondary draft.  I blame him as heck for picking Maye over Jones though.  

As heck?

:)

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