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Maxman

If everything breaks right, what is the upper win total?

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Everything goes right. Hackenberg or Petty win the job and show promise. The defense improves, Claiborne stays healthy. The offensive line plays as well as you can expect from them.

I know, a lot of if's. But the question is, if everything breaks right, how many games can this team win?

 

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7 tops. there;s just not enough fire power on offense. 

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9 minutes ago, Paradis said:

7 tops. there;s just not enough fire power on offense. 

The offense is tough to even predict because there are so many new variables. Coordinator, tight ends, top two wide receivers are gone.

Oh and the QB situation. 

So on offense everything could break right ( a young QB emerges) and there could still be challenges.

Defense though, an equally big if...but if everything breaks right there I think the defense could realistically be pretty good. If not Bowles is definitely a goner.

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The offense is tough to even predict because there are so many new variables. Coordinator, tight ends, top two wide receivers are gone.
Oh and the QB situation. 
So on offense everything could break right ( a young QB emerges) and there could still be challenges.
Defense though, an equally big if...but if everything breaks right there I think the defense could realistically be pretty good. If not Bowles is definitely a goner.


Even if everything breaks right, the team still has to learn to win. And then keep winning. That's another whole bag of donuts. I don't see the poise and maturity to be winning more than 6-7 games even things go in our favour. Talent and experience; we're short on both.


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30 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Everything goes right. Hackenberg or Petty win the job and show promise. The defense improves, Claiborne stays healthy. The offensive line plays as well as you can expect from them.

I know, a lot of if's. But the question is, if everything breaks right, how many games can this team win?

 

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This team is going 2-14.  Wrap your brains around it.

I dont know what some of you can possibly be thinking. The QBs are lousy.  The OL is below average.  The LBs stink.  The secondary hasn't played together and has little to no experience.  The WRs have talent but are inexperienced.  This team has no depth.  The coach stinks.  The special teams stink.

If everything, and I do mean EVERYTHING; up to and including the young Jets get better quickly, the team suffers very few injuries, the special teams are infinitely better than we expect, and they play a few teams without their starting QBs.... I suppose 6-10 is a remote possibility.

 

 

 

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But as TOmShane pointed out... there is nothing "breaking right" about this team winning games.  That would, in fact, be breaking wrong for the future of this cursed franchise.

#1 overall in 2018 is the only "right."

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The criteria is if EVERYTHING goes right. Unfortunately, it is a very rare event when it does, but what if?

What of Hackenberg surprises everyone and learns something from somebody to make him suddenly accurate. What if the younger OL players step up big time, Lee and Mauldin come into their own, corners all play the best they ever have, rookies all show unusual poise and effectiveness, opponents with key injuries just at the right time, no Jets injuries, fumbles bounce into Jets hands, the right balls are dropped by them and caught by the Jets ... it goes on and on

Everything going right is the winning the lottery, it may not happen in one's lifetime but when it does, you hit it big. Everything going right will mean playoffs because that includes Miami, NE and Buffalo having everything going wrong

Just don't bet the mortgage on it, that wouldn't be smart 

 

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It really depends on the level of everything breaking right.  

What is the definition of right in this sense? 

For example, Hackenberg (or Petty) having a 22 TD/9 INT season is successfully breaking right.  However, so is a 40 TD/9 INT season, just to a greater degree.  If you are going for the possible right case scenario, I'd say about 10 games, although it's not plausible. 

Having a top tier QB last year (top 16 in QBR) and there were two losing records.  The Chargers, who had all kinds of injury issues with receivers last year, and one of the worst strings of losses.  They lost in OT to the Chiefs, after leading that game 27-10.  They lost by 4 points to the Colts, after TY Hilton caught a 63 yard pass with barely a minute left on the clock.  They lost by 1 point to the Saints, after leading 31-21 in the 4th again in the last minute.  They lost to the Raiders by 3 points.  They lost to the Broncos by 8, legitimate loss.  They lost to the Dolphins by 7, on a 60 yard interception return for a TD at the 1 minute mark.   They lost to the Bucs and Panthers, legitimate losses.   They lost to the Raiders by 3 points, then lost to the Browns of all people, and got killed by the Chiefs. 

While their record was about 5 wins, that's a team that should be around 8-8.  

The other team is the Saints, which had a historically bad defense.  They literally set records for defensive ineptitude last year.  

So if you have a QB that qualifies as a top half QB (again not probable) then a lot of things have to go bad for you to have a losing record.  

In this scenario, everything is going right, so say the receivers all take a step forward, Enunwa becomes a No. 1, one of Stewart/Hansen can function at 2, and Anderson progresses at 3, with good depth behind them.  ASJ stays off the alcohol and becomes decent, and Legget is reliable.  On defense, Claiborne stays healthy, Adams and Maye gel, and Lee takes the next step.  With relative health, this team can win 10 games.

Unfortunately, the chances of this happening are pretty slim because the greatest issue here is the QB.  The most improbable task among these is actually having one of our young QBs take the leap into being very good.  The distance between where they are now and where they need to be is vast for this change.  I say 10 wins because if you have a good QB, then everything else breaks from it.  It improves your running game, thus better ability to control the clock if you need to.  It helps your receivers because they will have better passes that they can reel in.  It improves the defense, because they aren't a mistake or two from losing the game, allows them to be more aggressive.  

I don't think that's going to happen though.  I'd be happy if Hackenberg or Petty look like starter material.

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Biggest thing that can "break right" and ruin any shot at the top pick is if Leo, Mo and Sheldon all show up healthy and play hard every week.  The amount of trouble they could cause up front could win them a few games alone.

If that happens with no major injuries and the QB protects the ball, they'd be playing meaningful games in Dec, but it's not gonna' happen.  

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4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Worst possible things that can happen to the 2017 New York Jets, in reverse order:

3. Geno Smith, 2017 Super Bowl MVP.

2. Plane crash.

1. Winning more than three games.

I'd swap #3 with #1.

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3-5 win team, max. 

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Problem with offense is even if everything breaks right there is no bell cow, I'd say 7 wins.

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5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

If Hackenberg turns out to be THE guy, we could win 10 games with our schedule, but he would need to have a Russell Wilson/Prescott type first season.

We have no talent at any of the important skill positions, so even if everything goes really well we would be a 4 or 5 win team. 

In the real world, we will likely win 0-4 games this year. 

 

 

if they get a +10 or higher turnover differential they could be winning 10+.  imo, there is talent there but it just hasn't been refined or used properly.  good teams get their players to play up to their talent level.  last season the young guys were being held back.

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6 hours ago, win4ever said:

It really depends on the level of everything breaking right.  

What is the definition of right in this sense? 

For example, Hackenberg (or Petty) having a 22 TD/9 INT season is successfully breaking right.  However, so is a 40 TD/9 INT season, just to a greater degree.  If you are going for the possible right case scenario, I'd say about 10 games, although it's not plausible. 

Having a top tier QB last year (top 16 in QBR) and there were two losing records.  The Chargers, who had all kinds of injury issues with receivers last year, and one of the worst strings of losses.  They lost in OT to the Chiefs, after leading that game 27-10.  They lost by 4 points to the Colts, after TY Hilton caught a 63 yard pass with barely a minute left on the clock.  They lost by 1 point to the Saints, after leading 31-21 in the 4th again in the last minute.  They lost to the Raiders by 3 points.  They lost to the Broncos by 8, legitimate loss.  They lost to the Dolphins by 7, on a 60 yard interception return for a TD at the 1 minute mark.   They lost to the Bucs and Panthers, legitimate losses.   They lost to the Raiders by 3 points, then lost to the Browns of all people, and got killed by the Chiefs. 

While their record was about 5 wins, that's a team that should be around 8-8.  

The other team is the Saints, which had a historically bad defense.  They literally set records for defensive ineptitude last year.  

So if you have a QB that qualifies as a top half QB (again not probable) then a lot of things have to go bad for you to have a losing record.  

In this scenario, everything is going right, so say the receivers all take a step forward, Enunwa becomes a No. 1, one of Stewart/Hansen can function at 2, and Anderson progresses at 3, with good depth behind them.  ASJ stays off the alcohol and becomes decent, and Legget is reliable.  On defense, Claiborne stays healthy, Adams and Maye gel, and Lee takes the next step.  With relative health, this team can win 10 games.

Unfortunately, the chances of this happening are pretty slim because the greatest issue here is the QB.  The most improbable task among these is actually having one of our young QBs take the leap into being very good.  The distance between where they are now and where they need to be is vast for this change.  I say 10 wins because if you have a good QB, then everything else breaks from it.  It improves your running game, thus better ability to control the clock if you need to.  It helps your receivers because they will have better passes that they can reel in.  It improves the defense, because they aren't a mistake or two from losing the game, allows them to be more aggressive.  

I don't think that's going to happen though.  I'd be happy if Hackenberg or Petty look like starter material.

This 100%

It is simple you can't win in today's NFL without a Quarterback!!

Exchange Brady for Fitz last year and we are having a totally different conversation out here about the Jets from top to bottom.  

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My concern is that teams that have these "out of nowhere" type seasons tend to emerge as the year goes on - they don't show up Day 1 and rattle of 8 wins in their first 10 games. It takes time for things to fall into place, players to 'gel' etc.

At the same time, our early schedule is our best chance at winning games against opposition that is of a similar status to us ... untried, untested, more potential than production.

So our "best scenario" may end up being somewhat convoluted ...

  • McCown starts, and does enough to win us a few early games while the O line, defense get their game together
  • At some point, for some reason, the switch is made to Petty / Hack, and the now-buzzing defense and an O line that has worked together enough allow us to play aggressive, confident football (i.e. not run-run-pass-punt) and the QB flourishes

Even then I'm seeing at best 7-8 wins. But if we got the "QB flourishes" part out of the above, I'd dare say it would be worth it.

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8 hours ago, Bleedin Green said:

If everything breaks right?  Undefeated and Super Bowl champions.

Of course, that's based on this "breaking" in question being the bones of every single football player who isn't on the Jets.

19 is the correct answer to the question but the test is fixed, Jet fans have a better chance of getting hit by lightning, all at the same time

 

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8.  I want this team to show promise under Petty or Hackenberg.   I want to see that our young guys that we currently have can be successful with the Jets for the future.  Tanking this season only means a couple of extra rebuild years.   

I have no desire to see McNown play.  Show me the Hackenberg can be a good starting NFL QB and that he develops a rapport with Enunwa and Anderson and I'm happier than tanking for a draft pick that could also very well be a bust.  

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