58-60% Comp 2900 yards 14 TD 12 Int

[BCJet]

In his rookie year Joe Flacco put up the following numbers - 60%  2917 yards  14/12 TD to Int ratio - he is a similar comp to Hackenberg as he is not a rhythm type passer, who hits on a high % of short passes, he is more of a chunk yards type QB.

The question is do those numbers, regardless of the teams W-L total, preclude us from drafting a QB in the first round of the 2018 draft?

[dbatesman]

Should they? No.

Would they? Absolutely.

[Bleedin Green]

2 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Should they? No.

Would they? Absolutely.

Yeah, that sounds about right.  We've seen far worse stats convince the team to pass on QBs until the middle/late rounds, if not for the entire draft.

Although in fairness, such a season would still probably put him in contention for a top 5 Jets' QBs list.

[Integrity28]

6 minutes ago, Bleedin Green said:

Yeah, that sounds about right.  We've seen far worse stats convince the team to pass on QBs until the middle/late rounds, if not for the entire draft.

Although in fairness, such a season would still probably put him in contention for a top 5 Jets' QBs list.

The stats that convince the Jets not to draft QBs most often are the "good college stats". 

 

[Mike135]

I think it boils down to where we finish the season.  If Hack or Petty do well enough with a crap set of weapons around them to avoid a top draft pick, they have the job moving forward.  Otherwise use a top pick on a QB.

What can really mess this up is if McCown gets any wins at QB.

[JustInFudge]

29 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Should they? No.

Would they? Absolutely.

Yes this 100%.  Hack showing that type of performance is all Mac needs to justify the selection.  He'll make sure his guy gets every chance to succeed and drafting a QB early would be him conceding on Hack and that wont look good and Big Mac likes to be good.  After all, he's got a reputation to maintain, 2015 executive of the year.

[Beerfish]

Hacks two preseason games he was 37.5 and 35.5 % completion. So he only has to improve by 25% just to be equal to flaccos lousy year.

[Kleckineau]

11 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Hacks two preseason games he was 37.5 and 35.5 % completion. So he only has to improve by 25% just to be equal to flaccos lousy year.

How was that a lousy rookie year by any standard?

 

[Bleedin Green]

28 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

The stats that convince the Jets not to draft QBs most often are the "good college stats". 

 

Clearly they've moved on from any interest in even those numbers.

[slats]

It would have to be far more than just the bare numbers, one would hope. He'd have to prove to be a solid leader. He'd have to show consistent improvement over the course of the year, ending on a high note. They'd really need to see a franchise QB in there somewhere. 

And even then, if they think a first rounder within their grasp is a can't miss guy, they shouldn't pass. The NY Jets having too many starting caliber QBs? I don't think that's been a problem around here since Robinson and Todd (not that either of them panned out, either). I'd take that problem on. 

[Integrity28]

27 minutes ago, JiF said:

Yes this 100%.  Hack showing that type of performance is all Mac needs to justify the selection.  He'll make sure his guy gets every chance to succeed and drafting a QB early would be him conceding on Hack and that wont look good and Big Mac likes to be good.  After all, he's got a reputation to maintain, 2015 executive of the year.

I think if this was truly part of his personality type, he wouldn't have cut bait on so many of the veterans he added the past 2 years. 

[peebag]

Don't care how Hack\Petty looks this year, if you're at the slot to pick one of the top qb prospects, you do so.

[Mogglez]

If he puts out those numbers in a 2-14/3-13 type of year, I truly can't imagine that we pass on a QB.  

[JustInFudge]

36 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

I think if this was truly part of his personality type, he wouldn't have cut bait on so many of the veterans he added the past 2 years. 

Maybe.  But technically, the only veterans he added that he cut bait on were Revis, Fitz and Gilchrest.  Marshall they tried to extend but he requested release. Mangold, Decker, Folk and Harris were carry overs (though he extended Harris), Pryor wasnt his, etc.  

Besides, I think the draft is different when it comes to reputation.  That's what GM's build their reputation on.  Not their ability to hit in Free Agency.  And I think it's especially different in the Hack scenario where it appears Mac was trying to out smart the rest of the league. 

[Kevin L]

I'd take those stats in a heartbeat. It would be only the 8th time this century that our starting QB threw more TDs than INTs.

[derp]

I think the Jets' defense should good enough that with some scoring the team will win enough games to knock them out of the top QB drafting range. But the offense is unproven enough that I can't see that happening without above average QB play. 

So I'd be surprised if this is an issue. But if there's a QB there I think they stockpile at the position unless you can get an absolute kings' ransom for the pick. And even then I think they take the guy and end up in a Brees/Rivers situation, Macc seems to love drafting QB's.

[BCJet]

1 minute ago, Mogglez said:

If he puts out those numbers in a 2-14/3-13 type of year, I truly can't imagine that we pass on a QB.  

At first glance I would agree with this.  That being said, what if we can add an elite Edge Rusher to our defense and build a full team around the QB?

I dont want to pass on a QB if there is an elite guy there, but as the Ravens have proven with Flacco, and even the Giants with Eli, if you surround a good but not elite (Sorry eli) QB, you can win enough to put your team in a position to go on a SB run.

Having Hack go 62%  3200 18-9 would be a dream.  Having Hack go 55% 2400 8 12, and the team drafts in the top 3 with Allen/Darnold there - thats a dream for me as well.  The issue is what if its in between, thats going to be where we can get into trouble.

[Beerfish]

48 minutes ago, Kleckineau said:

How was that a lousy rookie year by any standard?

 

It's not but I was taking up the theme that original poster had seemed to be making that flaco was at his worst in year one, or that is how i took it.

[Tony MaC]

43 minutes ago, slats said:

It would have to be far more than just the bare numbers, one would hope. He'd have to prove to be a solid leader. He'd have to show consistent improvement over the course of the year, ending on a high note. They'd really need to see a franchise QB in there somewhere. 

And even then, if they think a first rounder within their grasp is a can't miss guy, they shouldn't pass. The NY Jets having too many starting caliber QBs? I don't think that's been a problem around here since Robinson and Todd (not that either of them panned out, either). I'd take that problem on. 

Agreed. While any season where a Qb throws more TD's than INT's (and the latter is less than one a game) that's only a part of the equation- if he can look the part in all facets it bodes well for him.

Just as well the team shouldn't turn down an unbelievably obvious pick no matter what he does. Wouldn't it be funny if he was the bridge for another QB?

 

[thadude]

Good news: absolutely nothing any Jets qb does this season will preclude us from drafting a qb in round 1 next Spring

[LIJetsFan]

20 minutes ago, peebag said:

Don't care how Hack\Petty looks this year, if you're at the slot to pick one of the top qb prospects, you do so.

THIS!!!! You can never had too many adequate QB.  We haven't had even one in far too long.  I say we stock up and not pull an "I'll past because we have Geno" move ever again.  Better too many than too few.

[sourceworx]

1 hour ago, BCJet said:

In his rookie year Joe Flacco put up the following numbers - 60%  2917 yards  14/12 TD to Int ratio - he is a similar comp to Hackenberg as he is not a rhythm type passer, who hits on a high % of short passes, he is more of a chunk yards type QB.

The question is do those numbers, regardless of the teams W-L total, preclude us from drafting a QB in the first round of the 2018 draft?

If Hackenberg puts up those numbers then we won't be in a position to get one of the top QBs.

[varjet]

es ago, sourceworx said:

If Hackenberg puts up those numbers then we won't be in a position to get one of the top QBs.

I agree with this.  If Hack is that "good,", the Jets are not picking top 3.

I compared Hack and Flacco in another thread.  I think they are very comparable.  Flacco played basically minor league college ball but did not get damaged like Hack did.  Hack may be a better raw product.  It all depends what the Jets can do with Hack.

To respond to another thread though, Flacco plays in more of a Ron Ehrhardt type offense.  Let's see what Morton and Bates whip up for Hack.  

[thadude]

Hack is as similar to Flacco the way the movie The Room is similar to Room 

[JustInFudge]

24 minutes ago, thadude said:

Good news: absolutely nothing any Jets qb does this season will preclude us from drafting a qb in round 1 next Spring

I wouldnt be so sure.  The Jets didnt have a starting QB this draft, they passed on them all because of the Hack.

[thadude]

5 minutes ago, JiF said:

I wouldnt be so sure.  The Jets didnt have a starting QB this draft, they passed on them all because of the Hack.

Well yea this current regime is a toxic dumpster fire

[long suffering jets fan]

8 hours ago, BCJet said:

In his rookie year Joe Flacco put up the following numbers - 60%  2917 yards  14/12 TD to Int ratio - he is a similar comp to Hackenberg as he is not a rhythm type passer, who hits on a high % of short passes, he is more of a chunk yards type QB.

The question is do those numbers, regardless of the teams W-L total, preclude us from drafting a QB in the first round of the 2018 draft?

Didn't Flacco make it into the playoffs his first year?  If Hackenberg looks as good as Flacco did in his first year and miraculously gets us into the playoffs, we don't draft a QB.  Aside from that miracle, we're drafting one.

[Sperm Edwards]

8 hours ago, sourceworx said:

If Hackenberg puts up those numbers then we won't be in a position to get one of the top QBs.

Those are similar or outright worse QB stats (either individual or team cumulative #s) than:

• Jacksonville in 2016 (3-13)
• 49ers in 2016 (2-14)
• Cleveland in 2015 (3-13)
• Tennessee in 2015 (3-13)
• Chargers in 2015 (4-12) and 2016 (5-11)
• Tennessee in 2014 (2-14)
• Oakland in 2014 (3-13)
• Jets cumulative QBs' #s in 2014 (4-12)
• Tampa in 2013 (4-12)
• Atlanta in 2013 (4-12)
• Washington in 2013 (3-13)

I stopped after the 4 most recent years, but you get the idea. So I'd say we could easily finish with 2-4 wins even if Hackenberg puts up those rookie Flacco numbers.

By the numbers...

Flacco's '08 TD and yardage numbers, and likely the INTs as well, would have been higher if their defense (<15ppg) and ground game (20 TDs) didn't afford Harbaugh (Cameron) the luxury of running the ball 35-40x per game that year. When the D let up 20+ points, he obviously threw a lot more than when they held opponents to ≤13 pts. The latter occurred in 11 games (plus 2x more in the playoffs), so he didn't pass much on balance.

Also his rookie season wasn't 1 TD, 1 INT every week. His first 5 career games his ratio was 1:7 (team was 2-3). The final 11 he was 13:5, throwing 0 picks in 8 of those final 11 (helping the team improve to 9-2 the rest of the way).

Don't expect the 2017 Jets' defense to surrender <15ppg like that '08 Ravens D - comparable to our '09 defense by the numbers - so those meh passing #s could easily result in <5 wins.

[Tony MaC]

To this point I wasn't sure there was one true statistic that would warrant an extended look at Hack, but if he played a season with less than one pick a game (and more TD's than INTs) that might do it. 

Even then the eye test is crucial, but taking care of the football is a really high priority for this franchise. You'll take your time with a guy that does that.

 

[Sperm Edwards]

8 minutes ago, Tony MaC said:

To this point I wasn't sure there was one true statistic that would warrant an extended look at Hack, but if he played a season with less than one pick a game (and more TD's than INTs) that might do it. 

Even then the eye test is crucial, but taking care of the football is a really high priority for this franchise. You'll take your time with a guy that does that.

 

Even that depends, as far as wanting an extended look. Like I noted above, Flacco's rookie season (in the regular season) was really in 2 parts: the first 5 games, then the last 11 games.

• First 5 games = 1 TD, 7 INTs, 60 QBR, team went 2-3
• Last 11 games = 13 TDs, 5 INTs, 90 QBR, team went 9-2

Regardless, those numbers alone wouldn't be nearly enough to pass up on drafting another QB. He'd have to look great, or you'd "know" from watching that season he's about to be great the next year.

Worst case scenario, in terms of wasting a 2018 1st round draft pick, is Hackenberg becomes awesome and we can trade the never-used QB we just drafted for a 1st rounder later (even if it's a later one than the original selection). The new draftee shouldn't lose much trade value if he was on the bench only because Hackenberg was tearing the league a new one.

We could all live with that awful ending I think. I'm not passing up on a QB because there's some great TE prospect available. 

[HighPitch]

16 hours ago, peebag said:

Don't care how Hack\Petty looks this year, if you're at the slot to pick one of the top qb prospects, you do so.

Yea really. 

No matter wbat goes down this year, qb with the first pick is a no brainer

[Tony MaC]

7 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Even that depends, as far as wanting an extended look. Like I noted above, Flacco's rookie season (in the regular season) was really in 2 parts: the first 5 games, then the last 11 games.

• First 5 games = 1 TD, 7 INTs, 60 QBR, team went 2-3
• Last 11 games = 13 TDs, 5 INTs, 90 QBR, team went 9-2

Regardless, those numbers alone wouldn't be nearly enough to pass up on drafting another QB. He'd have to look great, or you'd "know" from watching that season he's about to be great the next year.

Worst case scenario, in terms of wasting a 2018 1st round draft pick, is Hackenberg becomes awesome and we can trade the never-used QB we just drafted for a 1st rounder later (even if it's a later one than the original selection). The new draftee shouldn't lose much trade value if he was on the bench only because Hackenberg was tearing the league a new one.

We could all live with that awful ending I think. I'm not passing up on a QB because there's some great TE prospect available. 

I guess drafting or not drafting a QB in rd one shouldn't be considered our standard of a successful season for Hack.

Doesn't matter if he's good or bad, Mac will go BPA regardless of anything. If we're in position to nab a can't miss prospect who's fallen to us we WILL be taking that opportunity.

Hack just needs to play well enough to be the starter the next year- its all he can do. Anything else is out of his hands.

 

[Tony MaC]

3 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Yea really. 

No matter wbat goes down this year, qb with the first pick is a no brainer

That depends on how the vaunted QB's actually do this season. Who knows, maybe this turns out to be the year of the OT or CB and the guys everybody says are can't miss are... well, can miss. 

[Sperm Edwards]

14 minutes ago, Tony MaC said:

I guess drafting or not drafting a QB in rd one shouldn't be considered our standard of a successful season for Hack.

Doesn't matter if he's good or bad, Mac will go BPA regardless of anything. If we're in position to nab a can't miss prospect who's fallen to us we WILL be taking that opportunity.

Hack just needs to play well enough to be the starter the next year- its all he can do. Anything else is out of his hands.

 

If we're in position to take one of the draft's top 2-3 QBs (presumably with a top 3-ish pick to be in that position), and they're as good as people say they are, there are only 2 options:

1. Draft the QB

2. Trade down, because someone will be willing surrender another 1st rounder and more - if not 2 first rounders and more - to trade up

Under no circumstances could/should/would the Jets draft a non-QB there at any position. It would be impossibly stupid, no matter how stubbornly rigid any GM's philosophy might be. I never say never, but it's hard to believe even Maccagnan would be that much of an imbecile.

[stoicsentry]

Keep in mind that we have many fans that are upset that Geno Smith wasn't given more of a chance. I mean, wow, that's actually something people say. Geno's best season? 59.7% completion, 13 TD/13 INT, 2525 yards (6.9 avg), 5 fumbles. THAT is acceptable QB play in Jetland. You basically just need a pulse.