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Scouting the qbs for next year thread


Joe W. Namath

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4 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

Mayfield is the opposite of Sanchez. The whole problem with Sanchez was that he was basically a mystery box after starting so few games. If he had stayed in school it would have been the usual double-edged sword. His Lewin/QBASE projection would have been better due to the increased start count but the additional film would likely have disclosed some of his issues. Mayfield's track record is immaculate. He's going to enter the draft coming off three straight seasons as the starting quarterback of a top ten passing offense (per FO S&P+). Even if the Personnel Guys think he's got an ugly girlfriend he might be Russell Wilson but I think he just goes high. None of the presumptive top guys is clean as far as the analytics. 

He might be Sanchez now but I don't think he's Leinart in a year. This notion that he's been so terrible this year is kind of ridiculous.

Any takeaways on QBASE potentially being way off on Wentz? Good or bad?

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3 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Any takeaways on QBASE potentially being way off on Wentz? Good or bad?

I dunno. FCS adjustment needs work? One example isn't important. I mean we never talk about an individual player somebody's gut missed on. But hey. Russell Wilson. Numbers got that one. Everybody else missed. The point again is that it's always a crapshoot and we're looking to maximize our odds. I'm not saying by any means don't take Wentz (or Rosen, or whoever) because of the analytics, I'm saying that anybody that's going to be in a position to make that call for us had better be a much smarter person than Mike Maccagnan.

As far as the numbers that go into quarterbacks, I think it's hard to argue. Start count as huge effing deal goes back past Lewin forecast to the Parcells rules. More starts means: 1) won and kept the gig, 2) experience, 3) feelsy tape grades are based on a bigger sample and thus more likely to be right. Completion percentage means he can throw the ball to the guy. This is key. So the underlying numbers are fine. And we're not morons so we understand what model outputs are and are not purporting to tell us. I forget the question now.

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On 10/24/2017 at 2:55 PM, sourceworx said:

I would trade our first round pick for the next five years to get Andrew Luck.

I would trade a lot for Luck but I don’t know about 5yrs 1st rd. Picks. Maybe 3 years of 1s. I don’t know though. Maybe I would. 

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On October 24, 2017 at 10:09 AM, nycdan said:

I watch Rosen and I can't help but think of Dan Marino.  Without the pot stigma.  I'd run to the podium for that.

I see no Marino in Rosen. I see Manziel without the party stigma.

I see Marino-Rodgers-Elway in Darnold ... with Ben's toughness.

Nov 18 ... mark your calendar

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its amazing. You would have thought Andrew Luck was coming out with the way people talked about this class.

Even more recent, Mariotta, Winston, Goff look ok but are they franchise QBs? Wentz looks like a franchise QB.

I don't even know what is a Franchise QB is honestly. How many are in the NFL right now.

Personally a fan of L Jackson

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1 minute ago, RESNewYork said:

its amazing. You would have thought Andrew Luck was coming out with the way people talked about this class.

Even more recent, Mariotta, Winston, Goff look ok but are they franchise QBs? Wentz looks like a franchise QB.

I don't even know what is a Franchise QB is honestly. How many are in the NFL right now.

Personally a fan of L Jackson

I think both the Rams and Eagles traded up didn't they?

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1 hour ago, jetrider said:

I see no Marino in Rosen. I see Manziel without the party stigma.

I see Marino-Rodgers-Elway in Darnold ... with Ben's toughness.

Nov 18 ... mark your calendar

Darnold reminds of Mark Sanchez....with Ryan Leaf's attitude and pre-draft hype.

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39 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Best since 1983. Thank goodness we didn’t take a QB last year, which was The Bad QB Class

Im not saying that I don't wish we had Watson right now, but honestly, while this class is starting to look like it may have been over hyped, last years class, as a whole still looks bad.  Other than Watson, Trubisky has played and has been ehhhhh.  Kizer is dog barf.  Mahomes is currently the 3rd QB in KC and according to his coaches, a long way away.  His career has yet to be written, but so far it looks the people who said that Watson was the only one worth looking at were right.  I'd take Rosen, Falk, and Mayfield over Trubisky, Kizer, & Mahomes any day.

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1 hour ago, sourceworx said:

Darnold reminds of Mark Sanchez....with Ryan Leaf's attitude and pre-draft hype.

Because of USC ... wow.

Ryan Leaf was an undisciplined immature Manziel type from the get-go. He flaked out on the Colts pre-draft interview and partied all night in Vegas the night after the draft. Leaf was a full-tilt moron unfit for any job. Darnold is nothing like that, the complete opposite. You should read up more.

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28 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Im not saying that I don't wish we had Watson right now, but honestly, while this class is starting to look like it may have been over hyped, last years class, as a whole still looks bad.  Other than Watson, Trubisky has played and has been ehhhhh.  Kizer is dog barf.  Mahomes is currently the 3rd QB in KC and according to his coaches, a long way away.  His career has yet to be written, but so far it looks the people who said that Watson was the only one worth looking at were right.  I'd take Rosen, Falk, and Mayfield over Trubisky, Kizer, & Mahomes any day.

It could well turn out that the 2018 class is better than the 2017 class, and I personally had no interest in Trubisky, Mahomes, or Kizer. My gripe is mainly with the people who argued we shouldn't take a QB last year because we could get a better one this year, which was and is one of the dumbest arguments ever advanced on this website.

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Just now, dbatesman said:

It could well turn out that the 2018 class is better than the 2017 class, and I personally had no interest in Trubisky, Mahomes, or Kizer. My gripe is mainly with the people who argued we shouldn't take a QB last year because we could get a better one this year, which was and is one of the dumbest arguments ever advanced on this website.

Can't disagree there.  I've always believed that if you believe in a guy you get him, public perception of the strength of the QB class be damned. Watson was the only one I was interested in, but I didn't like him enough as a prospect to take him at 6.  Had him as what Vince Young was as his worst case scenario, and what Vince Young could have, and should have, been as his best case scenario.  Sucks that we passed on him now that it looks like he's going to be the ladder of those two comps.  

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2 hours ago, dbatesman said:

It could well turn out that the 2018 class is better than the 2017 class, and I personally had no interest in Trubisky, Mahomes, or Kizer. My gripe is mainly with the people who argued we shouldn't take a QB last year because we could get a better one this year, which was and is one of the dumbest arguments ever advanced on this website.

You draft a qb every year until you hit on a good one

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I think what everyone was saying about the QBs was that after releasing a ton a players, it appeared as if the Jets were not going to be very good.

That said, Darnold is and will be a better prospect than any QB or player for that matter from the 17 draft.  What some, me included, saw was that if the Jets drafted Watson or Mahomes in the first and were still bad, there was potential to be in position to draft Darnold.  But because the GM had just drafted Watson, we would have to pass.

Now add that there were several other potential QBs that could emerge, like Rosen, Mayfield, Rudolph, Jackson, plus a few underclassman that were lesser know prospects like Falk, Allen, Lock, Fitzgerald, and Stidham.  There seemed to be more opportunities to get a QB in 18.

What we’ve seen is Darnold struggle because of injuries to his supporting cast and a CS trying to change an offense, Rosen being up and down, Jackson not progress, Allen and Falk showing they aren’t candidates to be even considered, and the rest of the underclassman not showing enough to warrant leaving school early.

Now as good as Watson has been, He has legit players around him.  There is no possible way that he would look as good if the Jets would have drafted him.

I don’t think that the 18 class was overhyped, I think that because of the hype that every Potential QB prospect is being micro-analyzed by everyone with an opinion.

And that said, I agreed with the draft decision  from 17.  But that means Macc and his staff BETTER find the QB of the future in 18.  At this point, I don’t care if they trade a ton to move up for Darnold or Rosen.  Don’t care if they stay put and take Mayfield, Rudolph, or Finley.  Don’t care if they wait and take Jackson, Ferguson, or anybody else later on.  But who they take better be the answer.  Better be able to show something in camp and preseason, and not be hidden because they are trash like Hack.  If not, this team will remain irrelevant for the foreseeable future.

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14 hours ago, jetrider said:

Because of USC ... wow.

Ryan Leaf was an undisciplined immature Manziel type from the get-go. He flaked out on the Colts pre-draft interview and partied all night in Vegas the night after the draft. Leaf was a full-tilt moron unfit for any job. Darnold is nothing like that, the complete opposite. You should read up more.

He's like Sanchez in that his go-to receiver is the other team. 

He's like Leaf because he blames his poor play on his coaches, instead of himself. 

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5 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Did Rosen get hurt yesterday or just suck?

Mora said he was banged up and twisted his ankle in the second quarter, but then repeated a few times it was “multiple things.” Imo, dude is just counting the days to the draft at this point

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7 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Did Rosen get hurt yesterday or just suck?

 

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Mora said he was banged up and twisted his ankle in the second quarter, but then repeated a few times it was “multiple things.” Imo, dude is just counting the days to the draft at this point

Yeah. Sucks for Rosen, UCLA has a JV High School level defense. Rosen has to carry the team every week. He has played pretty well considering he is still my favorite QB this year. Kid is tough and doesn’t shrink under pressure, but he has been getting hit a bunch the last few games. 

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57 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

He's like Sanchez in that his go-to receiver is the other team. 

He's like Leaf because he blames his poor play on his coaches, instead of himself. 

And what evidence do you have of this? I've never seen that. 

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1 minute ago, Stark said:

 

Yeah. Sucks for Rosen, UCLA has a JV High School level defense. Rosen has to carry the team every week. He has played pretty well considering he is still my favorite QB this year. Kid is tough and doesn’t shrink under pressure, but he has been getting hit a bunch the last few games. 

He’s been getting hammered all year, but it’ll still be disappointing if it comes out he pulled himself out of the game.

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1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

Did Rosen get hurt yesterday or just suck?

Finger injury.  Status for next week still uncertain from what I saw.  Looks like the Bruins OL went back to being garbage again yesterday and he got sacked 4 times in the first half.

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