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First Overall Wet Dream

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So I'm actually starting to believe in Mac n Bowles and I'm starting to get those first overall draft pick wet dreams. I can't imagine a Jets fan's life without a worry for a QB for the next 15 years to come if Sam is the real deal. But knowing our luck, he'll turn out to be Tim Couch or David Carr. I like the odds though. 

Scenario. We win wk17 and get the 2nd overall pick. What do we give up to trade to first?

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6 minutes ago, j4jets said:

So I'm actually starting to believe in Mac n Bowles and I'm starting to get those first overall draft pick wet dreams. I can't imagine a Jets fan's life without a worry for a QB for the next 15 years to come if Sam is the real deal. But knowing our luck, he'll turn out to be Tim Couch or David Carr. I like the odds though. 

Scenario. We win wk17 and get the 2nd overall pick. What do we give up to trade to first?

Nothing because you take who ever the team picking 1st doesn't pick between Darnold, and Rosen.  I was dead wrong on Rosen kid is the real deal, I prefer Darnold, but if it's Rosen I won't be upset in the least.  Sadly the Jets are better then about 4 teams, and just happen to play 4 games VS 3 of those teams, and will probably go 3-1 against them IMO, giving the Jets at best the 5th overall pick, and wiping away the Darnold, Rosen pipe dream.  Start watching Wyoming, and Louisville games the Jets are more likely to end up with Jackson, or Allen then Rosen, or Darnold IMO, and think if it's Allen this team is screwed for another 5+ years, Jackson can be a player in this league with the right coaches, and offensive system built just for him IMO so I'd be cool with that, disappointed, but ok, Allen would be Sanchez all over again, but imagine no O-line, running game, and dominant defense to support him!

And as far as the bold trust me Macc, and Bowles are not on the same page with what they want to do this season, one is trying to set up his career by getting a once in a decade type QB, while the other is trying to win as many games as he can to save his job, and if he doesn't at least put enough wins together to be able to get another job fairly soon, all is not well at Flo P.

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Jets don't need the top pick to get a potential franchise QB this season.  There are five or six QB's coming out who will be a massive upgrade over anything currently on the roster and likely better than we've seen in a Jets uniform in our lives.

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1 minute ago, AFJF said:

Jets don't need the top pick to get a potential franchise QB this season.  There are five or six QB's coming out who will be a massive upgrade over anything currently on the roster and likely better than we've seen in a Jets uniform in our lives.

Yes, but there looks like there is 2 can't miss guys, hopefully a 3rd if Jackson is the real deal making this like the 2004 draft, and hopefully the Jets pick high enough to grab one of the can't miss guys, all the others are crap shoots IMO, and will be crap shoots all the way to draft day, most will bust IMO, maybe 1, or 2 are good after the Darnold, Rosen, Jackson trio, think Allen is a HUGE bust just waiting to happen so he will so be the Jets pick.

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9 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Yes, but there looks like there is 2 can't miss guys, hopefully a 3rd if Jackson is the real deal making this like the 2004 draft, and hopefully the Jets pick high enough to grab one of the can't miss guys, all the others are crap shoots IMO, and will be crap shoots all the way to draft day, most will bust IMO, maybe 1, or 2 are good after the Darnold, Rosen, Jackson trio, think Allen is a HUGE bust just waiting to happen so he will so be the Jets pick.

I get the sentiment, but the truth of the matter is that even the best GM's have no idea how good any of these QB's are gonna' be.  Hell, John Elway tried to pay Brock Osweiller $14 million and took Lynch in the first round.  Even he didn't know that the 7th rounder already on his roster was a better option.

Think of who you view as the top 12 QB's in the NFL right now.  How many of them were taken in the top 5?

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Ideal scenario IMO is that the Jets have the top pick and 3 QB's with almost identical grades.  Another team at 3 pays a kings ransom to move up to 1 and the Jets get a QB they want and a hefty load of picks to go along with it.

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9 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The idea of asking Maccagnan to mastermind a trade down from the #1 overall pick to draft a QB that he deems worthier than the guy whom would be the consensus first overall pick is so heart-stoppingly terrifying that I can't even conceive of it. 

A "consensus" guy may emerge, much like JaMarcus Russell several years ago, but who the hell knows?  If Elway can't guess right on a QB, I don't think many folks can.

Bill O' Brien, the highly respected QB guru has gone through how many QB's in a few short seasons?  Osweiller, Hoyer, Savage?  Even if he hits on Watson, isn't that like the 8th QB they've gotten him to work with?

Ozzie Newsome, viewed by many as the best GM in the NFL, in his career with the Ravens, has drafted quarterbacks Jon Stark, Wally Richardson, Chris Redman, Wes Pate, Kyle Boller, Josh Harris, Derek Anderson and Troy Smith before finally hitting on Flacco.  Flacco was the 9th QB he drafted and the 2nd 1st rounder, but we should all panic because Mac missed on a 2nd and 4th rounder, even though Petty may actually turn out to be a solid QB, something we're less sure of because the head coach didn't give him any run with the first team offense?

If owners fired their GM every time he failed to find a franchise QB on his first try, there wouldn't really be any need to ever hire one.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, AFJF said:

A "consensus" guy may emerge, much like JaMarcus Russell several years ago, but who the hell knows?  If Elway can't guess right on a QB, I don't think many folks can.

Bill O' Brien, the highly respected QB guru has gone through how many QB's in a few short seasons?  Osweiller, Hoyer, Savage?  Even if he hits on Watson, isn't that like the 8th QB they've gotten him to work with?

Ozzie Newsome, viewed by many as the best GM in the NFL, in his career with the Ravens, has drafted quarterbacks Jon Stark, Wally Richardson, Chris Redman, Wes Pate, Kyle Boller, Josh Harris, Derek Anderson and Troy Smith before finally hitting on Flacco.  Flacco was the 9th QB he drafted and the 2nd 1st rounder, but we should all panic because Mac missed on a 2nd and 4th rounder, even though Petty may actually turn out to be a solid QB, something we're less sure of because the head coach didn't give him any run with the first team offense?

If owners fired their GM every time he failed to find a franchise QB on his first try, there wouldn't really be any need to ever hire one.

 

 

 

Whiffing on a QB in Round Four and beyond isn't a big deal. Burning a two on Christian Hackenberg--whom literally every person who's ever been paid a nickel to evaluate American football hated--is a disqualifying act. 

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Whiffing on a QB in Round Four and beyond isn't a big deal. Drafting Christian Hackenberg--whom literally every person who's ever been paid a nickel to evaluate American football hated--is a disqualifying act. 

So what should it mean when you have over a decade on the job and you still draft Kyle Boller and his career 47.8% completion percentage in the first round, as Ozzie did?

Edited by AFJF

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9 minutes ago, AFJF said:

So what should it mean when you have over a decade on the job and you still draft Kyle Boller and his career 47.8% completion percentage in the first round, as Ozzie did?

It means, don't ask Brian Billick to pick your quarterback.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d8286f0f3/article/how-to-draft-a-qb-part-4-the-kyle-boller-experience

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7 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Oh, okay.  Then I think Mac picked Leo, and Bowles did the rest.

You didn't read the article. Obviously, Newsome takes the hit for Boller, but Boller at least went where he was projected, and it should be noted that Newsome drafted Suggs in that same draft. Macc drafting Hackenberg a minimum of two rounds early and having Hackenberg be everything his critics said he was was awful. My point being, if Macc has the first overall pick, Mac needs to take the layup because he sucks at shooting threes. Homeboy can barely hit free throws.

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You didn't read the article. Obviously, Newsome takes the hit for Boller, but Boller at least went where he was projected, and it should be noted that Newsome drafted Suggs in that same draft. Macc drafting Hackenberg a minimum of two rounds early and having Hackenberg be everything his critics said he was was awful. My point being, if Macc has the first overall pick, Mac needs to take the layup because he sucks at shooting threes. Homeboy can barely hit free throws.
In a way I think I'd prefer there be one consensus top pick and we have the first pick. If we end up picking one of three guys that are all shoulder to shoulder, you can just see the next ten years of bulletin board material unfold before your eyes. Especially if any trading is involved.

My primary concern is still more to do with our ability to develop whatever QB we end up with, over picking the "right" guy originally. A great coach can do more with an average QB prospect than an average coach can do with a great QB prospect, in my mind.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

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Honestly had no idea until I just looked it up...Osweiller was a second round pick?  These guys are legitimately picking names out of a hat on draft day.  I'm convinced.

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5 minutes ago, jamesr said:

In a way I think I'd prefer there be one consensus top pick and we have the first pick. If we end up picking one of three guys that are all shoulder to shoulder, you can just see the next ten years of bulletin board material unfold before your eyes. Especially if any trading is involved.

My primary concern is still more to do with our ability to develop whatever QB we end up with, over picking the "right" guy originally. A great coach can do more with an average QB prospect than an average coach can do with a great QB prospect, in my mind.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk
 

I totally agree. There's no infrastructure here to handle getting the big QB anyway. It's something we're going to have to add after the fact and hope we don't ruin the young QB before we can do that. At least Rosen will get to watch an ILB and some strong safeties while he's getting tested for weekly concussions on the sidelines.

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3 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

Sorry guys but I think we are going to win 6 or 7 games this year and not get a sniff of those guys.

Why?  What does this team do well? And please don't say "defense," because, well, just wait and see...

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

I totally agree. There's no infrastructure here to handle getting the big QB anyway. It's something we're going to have to add after the fact and hope we don't ruin the young QB before we can do that. At least Rosen will get to watch an ILB and some strong safeties while he's getting tested for weekly concussions on the sidelines.

I have no doubt we are going to overspend on building a slightly above average offensive line for next year.  I think the young QB will be fine.

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1 hour ago, AFJF said:

A "consensus" guy may emerge, much like JaMarcus Russell several years ago, but who the hell knows?  If Elway can't guess right on a QB, I don't think many folks can.

Bill O' Brien, the highly respected QB guru has gone through how many QB's in a few short seasons?  Osweiller, Hoyer, Savage?  Even if he hits on Watson, isn't that like the 8th QB they've gotten him to work with?

Ozzie Newsome, viewed by many as the best GM in the NFL, in his career with the Ravens, has drafted quarterbacks Jon Stark, Wally Richardson, Chris Redman, Wes Pate, Kyle Boller, Josh Harris, Derek Anderson and Troy Smith before finally hitting on Flacco.  Flacco was the 9th QB he drafted and the 2nd 1st rounder, but we should all panic because Mac missed on a 2nd and 4th rounder, even though Petty may actually turn out to be a solid QB, something we're less sure of because the head coach didn't give him any run with the first team offense?

If owners fired their GM every time he failed to find a franchise QB on his first try, there wouldn't really be any need to ever hire one.

 

 

 

None of those GMs have had the opportunity to pick at the top of the draft during a draft where a franchise QB was available.  

Elay tried to pay Osweiler because he didn't have any other choice.

This is the biggest reason why the Jets doing everything they can to win 5 or 6 wins a year has kept us from solving the QB dilemma.  

The way we can look at the next draft is that is all things were even, Darnold and Rosen have the best chance to develop into stars in the NFL.  While there are several other potential stars in this draft, none of the QBs are as likely.

This is the year to go all in for the top pick because judging our QBs drafted, we need damn near a sure thing.  And because we probably won't be picking this high again for a while.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Pcola said:

None of those GMs have had the opportunity to pick at the top of the draft during a draft where a franchise QB was available.  

Elay tried to pay Osweiler because he didn't have any other choice.

This is the biggest reason why the Jets doing everything they can to win 5 or 6 wins a year has kept us from solving the QB dilemma.  

The way we can look at the next draft is that is all things were even, Darnold and Rosen have the best chance to develop into stars in the NFL.  While there are several other potential stars in this draft, none of the QBs are as likely.

This is the year to go all in for the top pick because judging our QBs drafted, we need damn near a sure thing.  And because we probably won't be picking this high again for a while.

 

 

Where they're picking shouldn't matter if you're regarded as being among the best in the NFL at what you do.  If Ozzie Newsome is a genius, should he only be held accountable for QBs he drafted in the top five, but not the bum he drafted at 16 or wherever it was that they took Boller?  

As far as the bold, with all due respect, that's your opinion.  None of us (or any GM) knows for sure which of these guys will pan out and which ones won't.  It's the hardest position to predict by far, that's why most of the top QB's in the NFL right now were taken nowhere near 1st overall.

Edited by AFJF

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8 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Where they're picking shouldn't matter if you're regarded as being among the best in the NFL at what you do.  If Ozzie Newsome is a genius, should he only be held accountable for QBs he drafted in the top five, but not the bum he drafted at 16 or wherever it was that they took Boller?  

As far as the bold, with all due respect, that's your opinion.  None of us (or any GM) knows for sure which of these guys will pan out and which ones won't.  It's the hardest position to predict by far, that's why most of the top QB's in the NFL right now were taken nowhere near 1st overall.

How did you go from, "we should let Maccagnan trade down next year" to "Ozzie Newsome once picked a bad QB? 

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43 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

How did you go from, "we should let Maccagnan trade down next year" to "Ozzie Newsome once picked a bad QB? 

Because you were discussing how horrifying it would be for Mac to be allowed to choose/trade for a QB, so I thought I would point out the fact that he's actually not the first GM to miss on one, and unlike Ozzy, he's never blown a first round pick on a bust QB.

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46 minutes ago, Scoop24 said:

Baker Mayfield is legit folks.. I think this #1 Race is more than Just Darnold and Rosen .. 

Lamar Jackson looking pretty damn good too.  

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1 minute ago, AFJF said:

Lamar Jackson looking pretty damn good too.  

Agreed he has improved a lot as a Passer. Definitely have to take him serious now . 

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47 minutes ago, Scoop24 said:

Baker Mayfield is legit folks.. I think this #1 Race is more than Just Darnold and Rosen .. 

Current QB rankings per CBS sports and the don't even include Western Kentucky QB Mike White who could be a first rounder.  I think I've seen seven of these guys named as being a first round talent.   White makes it 8.

2 Sam Darnold QB 1 Southern California Soph 6-4 225
4 Mason Rudolph QB 2 Oklahoma State Sr 6-5 230
12 Josh Rosen QB 3 UCLA Jr 6-4 220
19 Luke Falk QB 4 Washington State Sr 6-4 225
23 Lamar Jackson QB 5 Louisville Jr 6-3 200
35 Baker Mayfield QB 8 Oklahoma Sr 6-1 218
42 Josh Allen QB 7 Wyoming Jr 6-5 233
52 Jake Browning QB 6 Washington Jr 6-2 205
74 Quinton Flowers QB 9 South Florida Sr 6-0 210
79 Jarrett Stidham QB 10 Auburn Soph 6-3 214
94 Deondre Francois QB 11 Florida State Soph 6-2 205

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4 hours ago, AFJF said:

Jets don't need the top pick to get a potential franchise QB this season.  There are five or six QB's coming out who will be a massive upgrade over anything currently on the roster and likely better than we've seen in a Jets uniform in our lives.

Loving me some Baker Mayfield.

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Ah the eternal shine of the college QB stat line

If it's a stellar class at least 1 will stay in school just because of that, not to be drafted too low

Darnold won't come out unless a west coast team is picking 1st and the bills or us aren't picking 2nd

The chargers game on Xmas Eve will decide a lot

Long way to go

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14 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Current QB rankings per CBS sports and the don't even include Western Kentucky QB Mike White who could be a first rounder.  I think I've seen seven of these guys named as being a first round talent.   White makes it 8.

2 Sam Darnold QB 1 Southern California Soph 6-4 225
4 Mason Rudolph QB 2 Oklahoma State Sr 6-5 230
12 Josh Rosen QB 3 UCLA Jr 6-4 220
19 Luke Falk QB 4 Washington State Sr 6-4 225
23 Lamar Jackson QB 5 Louisville Jr 6-3 200
35 Baker Mayfield QB 8 Oklahoma Sr 6-1 218
42 Josh Allen QB 7 Wyoming Jr 6-5 233
52 Jake Browning QB 6 Washington Jr 6-2 205
74 Quinton Flowers QB 9 South Florida Sr 6-0 210
79 Jarrett Stidham QB 10 Auburn Soph 6-3 214
94 Deondre Francois QB 11 Florida State Soph 6-2 205

These rankings haven't been updated since prior to the season starting.

Have to think Rosen and Mayfield are higher.    Allen and Francois should probably drop. 

Also should add Nick Fitzgerald of Miss St, Tanner Lee of Nebraska and Drew Lock of MO.

And I'm not sure why Browning is so high.  He doesn't have an NFL arm so I would think his ceiling is a back up.  So why put him at 52?

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