Breer: The 2018 Veteran QB Market

[KRL]

Albert Breer breaks down the upcoming veteran QB market:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/05/nfl-quarterback-2018-market-kirk-cousins-drew-brees

With the options in the draft and free agency he makes an excellent point that for the
first time ever supply & demand may actually match

[KRL]

Breer is an underrated writer who always brings well researched info in his articles

[Sperm Edwards]

Pasting the article text here. Better for discussion, quoting parts, etc. than sending people off the forum to read. Just link back to the story along with it.

 

Lesson of the Week: The 2018 Veteran QB Market is Shaping Up Nicely

Remember what we harped on over the summer? That rich 2018 veteran quarterback market is taking shape. And teams are taking notice.

If your team needs a quarterback coming out of this year, your timing might not be so bad. Our lesson for the week: This could well be the closest supply will ever come to matching demand when it comes to that position in this era of the NFL.

And for some teams, because of this bumper crop, going with a veteran may actually make more sense than hitching your wagon to a rookie.

“Fans and media want their guy—the start-from-the-bottom, untainted rookie,” said one AFC exec. “And the Moneyball guys will say it’s cheaper through the draft, which is true. Bu if the point is to have a functional starting quarterback, any football guy will tell you that while everyone wants a Brady or Rodgers, the reality is those are fewer and father between.

“So a Kirk Cousins or a Jimmy Garoppolo? I think football guys are drooling over that. If a guy like that gets out in free agency? You see what K.C. can do with Alex Smith. Put Cousins on a good squad with a good coach, I don’t know many football guys that’ll say that won’t work. And all those guys you named, they all can play at a starting caliber level … You can solve your problem before you get to the draft.”

The exec then added, “The endgame is to have a starting quarterback, and these guys are available and proven. The draft, there are no guarantees these kids will become that.”

OK, so really, the only thing that’s changed since the start of training camp is Matthew Stafford coming off the list, as most of us expected he would, as a result of his five-year, $135 million extension with the Lions. What else is there to watch for? Here we go…

 

1. Drew Brees turns 39 in January. That said, he’s been lights out through four games, and is on pace to post his best passer rating in six years, having lifted the Saints through a rough start. He’s also a free agent-to-be with a no-franchise-tag provision in his contract. And if there’s any kind of upheaval in the New Orleans brass after the season, it’s worth asking whether there’s a better place for him to chase another ring. He told me last summer he wants to play into his mid-40s.

2. Kirk Cousins was a little up and down in Week 1, but has been outstanding since, lighting up the Raiders in Week 3 and playing plenty good enough to beat the Chiefs in last Sunday night’s loss. Another franchise tag will cost the Skins more than $34 million for 2018, and they might be forced into a corner on that one. Also, this much seems clear: the 49ers, and noted Cousins enthusiast Kyle Shanahan, will be looking for a quarterback in March.

3. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t playing, and was up and down in the preseason. Ideally, the Patriots would like him to eventually succeed Tom Brady. But so long as Brady wants to keep playing, this situation figures to get a little fiscally (a franchise tag would be worth about $7 million more than Brady is scheduled to make) and socially (see: Garoppolo’s desire to play) awkward in 2018.

4. Neither Sam Bradford nor Teddy Bridgewater is playing right now, and one of the two will almost certainly be in Minnesota as starter in 2018. The other? Well, that’s complicated by Bridgewater’s injury, and whether his contract would toll or not if he sits the whole year. But as it stands now, both are on expiring deals, and whoever isn’t the presumed starter for next year would probably look around.

5. Alex Smith has been off the charts, completing 76.0 (!) percent of his passes for 1,067 yards, eight touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 124.2 rating for the perfect Chiefs. But … he does have the 10^th pick in the 2017 draft, Patrick Mahomes, sitting behind him. Based on Smith’s play, and his affordable contract, this could well turn into a mid-2000s Chargers situation—where Brees held off Philip Rivers for two years before bolting for New Orleans. Either way, it’s worth monitoring.

6. The Bengals have been reluctant to deal AJ McCarron because they like him. And his deal is up after this year, and others certainly have taken note of their trepidation to let him go.

7. Tyrod Taylor needs to be accounted for here. But based on how Buffalo’s playing, his $16 million number for 2018 looks like a bargain.

8. Flip side? Jay Cutler was pretty average through two games, then laid an egg against the Saints in London, which would seem to increase the chances he walks away for good after this year—and make Ryan Tannehill, turning 30 next summer, feel a little more secure.

Add all this up, and to the aforementioned bumper crop of quarterbacks expected in next year’s draft, and it should be a fun March and April at the game’s most important spot.

 

• We have a newsletter, and you can subscribe, and it’s free. Get “The Morning Huddle” delivered to your inbox first thing each weekday, by going here and checking The MMQB newsletter box. Start your day with the best of the NFL, from The MMQB.

• Question or comment? Story idea? Email us at talkback@themmqb.com.

[The Crusher]

" Jay Cutler pretty average?" Child please!

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

6 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

" Jay Cutler pretty average?" Child please!4

How did he stop from laughing when Tanny called and offered him $10m for the season - could just see him laying on the couch thinking "is this a prank call?" are you serious?

[Warfish]

No to most.  Draft a QB at whatever spot we have.  Baker Mayfield at pick #12 + Petty + Hack > Teddy "Will He Walk Again" Bridgewater or a Pats Castoff Unknown or a 83 year old Drew Brees. 

[sourceworx]

McCarron is interesting to me. He wouldn't be very expensive, and wouldn't prohibit you from taking a QB in the draft. The problem is he may end up as the Bengals' starter before this season is over.

[Obrien2Toon]

That part about Garapolo getting franchised and making 7M more than Brady is ridiculous.

They really need to look into the Pats shady dealings with Brady

[#27TheDominator]

11 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

" Jay Cutler pretty average?" Child please!

I think he was pretty average the first two weeks.  He was actually pretty good week 1.  65%/450 yards/2TD/1INT through two weeks is probably better than expected.   FWIW, the only Jets QB with more ypg than that since Vinny in 2000 earned himself a deal more lucrative than Cutler's.

[AFJF]

Kirk Cousins or Alex Smith and draft one.

[The Crusher]

19 minutes ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

How did he stop from laughing when Tanny called and offered him $10m for the season - could just see him laying on the couch thinking "is this a prank call?" are you serious?

Oh he 100% check the number because he thought it was a college friend pranking him. 

[De-Jet-Erate/Duane]

18 minutes ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

How did he stop from laughing when Tanny called and offered him $10m for the season - could just see him laying on the couch thinking "is this a prank call?" are you serious?

This just reminds me of Lou Brown.... I don't know, I got a guy on the other line about some white walls

[#27TheDominator]

6 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

McCarron is interesting to me. He wouldn't be very expensive, and wouldn't prohibit you from taking a QB in the draft. The problem is he may end up as the Bengals' starter before this season is over.

Interesting? Sure, but they had better look long and hard.  He is kind of a chicken arm and did not look good against the Steelers in the playoffs.  In his limited action, the only game he put up over 200 yards he entered down 13-0 in the 2nd and with the Steelers scoring almost every drive.  His stats for the playoff game (23/41, 212, 1/1) probably don't even tell the whole story, as they literally did nothing for the first half and he fumbled 3 times (lost one).  OTOH, the Bengals sh*tting the bed in the playoffs is nothing new and certainly not limited to McCarron.

Seems too much like Pennington to me. That is not the worst thing, but I don't want to give him a particularly big deal either and he is probably looking at Osweiler/Glennon money.  

[The Crusher]

7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think he was pretty average the first two weeks.  He was actually pretty good week 1.  65%/450 yards/2TD/1INT through two weeks is probably better than expected.   FWIW, the only Jets QB with more ypg than that since Vinny in 2000 earned himself a deal more lucrative than Cutler's.

That first game will be the best one he plays this year. Cutler will Cutler. 

[#27TheDominator]

Just now, The Crusher said:

That first game will be the best one he plays this year. Cutler will Cutler. 

Don't doubt that.  Not like he is going to spend the extra time learning the playbook 

[The Crusher]

Just now, #27TheDominator said:

Don't doubt that.  Not like he is going to spend the extra time learning the playbook 

His dog already chewed it. 

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

His dog already chewed it. 

That dog could chew on it all season and you'd still be able to read it. 

[sourceworx]

22 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Interesting? Sure, but they had better look long and hard.  He is kind of a chicken arm and did not look good against the Steelers in the playoffs.  In his limited action, the only game he put up over 200 yards he entered down 13-0 in the 2nd and with the Steelers scoring almost every drive.  His stats for the playoff game (23/41, 212, 1/1) probably don't even tell the whole story, as they literally did nothing for the first half and he fumbled 3 times (lost one).  OTOH, the Bengals sh*tting the bed in the playoffs is nothing new and certainly not limited to McCarron.

Seems too much like Pennington to me. That is not the worst thing, but I don't want to give him a particularly big deal either and he is probably looking at Osweiler/Glennon money.  

He doesn't have a huge arm, but you're exaggerating a bit. It isn't as bad as Chad's was. Chad's wasn't even that horrible until the injuries started mounting up.

I also think he'd be a cheaper option than most of the guys on Breer's list. Cheap enough that you could still consider a Mayfield or Falk if you liked one of them.

[batman10023]

40 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

That part about Garapolo getting franchised and making 7M more than Brady is ridiculous.

They really need to look into the Pats shady dealings with Brady

i am sure they have a wink/wink deal somewhere in here.  or Brady just really wants to win.

[slats]

53 minutes ago, Warfish said:

No to most.  Draft a QB at whatever spot we have.  Baker Mayfield at pick #12 + Petty + Hack > Teddy "Will He Walk Again" Bridgewater or a Pats Castoff Unknown or a 83 year old Drew Brees. 

This is basically where I'm at. I don't really see a viable solution here. 

4 minutes ago, sourceworx said:

He doesn't have a huge arm, but you're exaggerating a bit. It isn't as bad as Chad's was. Chad's wasn't even that horrible until the injuries started mounting up.

I also think he'd be a cheaper option than most of the guys on Breer's list. Cheap enough that you could still consider a Mayfield or Falk if you liked one of them.

They really have to exhaust the Petty and Hackenberg options before handing someone else's backup a starting QB contract. 

[Sperm Edwards]

6 minutes ago, slats said:

This is basically where I'm at. I don't really see a viable solution here. 

They really have to exhaust the Petty and Hackenberg options before handing someone else's backup a starting QB contract. 

At this point I'd be satisfied in knowing whether or not we need to add a veteran backup to replace Petty/Hackenberg. Is he reliable enough to start a month if needed, without automatically dropping the team out of contention? If yes, then he's fine for the role.

The whole "mentor" thing sounds wonderful and cuddly, but I really think is a waste of a roster spot if he's not making the team a contender that year. Pay McCown $6m/year to be the QBC for all I care. He doesn't need a valuable roster spot and to further rob the team of some $7m (on top of Fitz's $12m last year) that could have been used towards a player with an actual future.

[Warfish]

17 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

At this point I'd be satisfied in knowing whether or not we need to add a veteran backup to replace Petty/Hackenberg. Is he reliable enough to start a month if needed, without automatically dropping the team out of contention? If yes, then he's fine for the role.

We absolutely do NOT need a veteran Journeyman starter or backup QB next year.  Period.  Petty will be in his 4th year, Hack his third in 2018.  THEY are veterans at that point.

The only choice is Draft Pick/Petty/Hack, with either Hack/Petty starting in 2018 and the Draft Pick sitting one season.

But I fear Macc, frankly.  The idea of him spending his wad on a veteran journeyman QB or some unknown backup someplace else scares me.  Him drafting a CB at pick #10 scares me.  

The path for the Jets is bright......but the GM, and his often "I'm smarter than everyone else" way of doing business scares the sh*t out of me.

[MDL_JET]

 Cousins absolutely.

I'd only take Alex Smith and Brees if we also drafted a QB high. But who knows what direction they would take if they signed one of them. 

I really don't understand why Garrappolo is getting so much love for such an unknown. But I guess that's just what the market is. 

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, Warfish said:

We absolutely do NOT need a veteran Journeyman starter or backup QB next year.  Period.  Petty will be in his 4th year, Hack his third in 2018.  THEY are veterans at that point.

The only choice is Draft Pick/Petty/Hack, with either Hack/Petty starting in 2018 and the Draft Pick sitting one season.

But I fear Macc, frankly.  The idea of him spending his wad on a veteran journeyman QB or some unknown backup someplace else scares me.  Him drafting a CB at pick #10 scares me.  

The path for the Jets is bright......but the GM, and his often "I'm smarter than everyone else" way of doing business scares the sh*t out of me.

No doubt. It's worthwhile to find out if Petty is adequate as a backup. I'll allow that he isn't automatically adequate just because it's his 4th season. If they feel he isn't nearly as good as McCown - who belongs as a backup himself - then it's wise to see how much less.

They don't necessarily need to spend several million on a veteran just because they decide Petty or Hackenberg (or both) are unworthy of the #2 spot next year. Clemens, Moore, Daniel, and plenty of others hover around the $1m to $1.5m/year mark, and there are younger FA veterans as well. They can spot start, but won't endanger a rookie sitting because (in his first rookie summer) he's not already clearly better than the next Fitz/McCown I fear we'll add.

I'm fine with the 2018 depth: #1 draft pick - #2 $1m veteran - #3 winner between Hack/Petty. But they have to get one of the other two on the field to help make that judgment.

I get that they see them every day in practice and we don't, but c'mon not every QB plays as well as in practice when they know they can (and will) get hit. They're not helpless babies; each has started plenty of football games before. I'm not in favor of those two playing a combined half a season or less in 2017 and then committing 2/3 of our QB depth chart to them in 2018. Something like that could lead to starting a draft pick before he's ready as well, simply because they still have no confidence in either of the other two.

I think we mostly agree; McCown has to get off the field. Particularly if the rookie WRs aren't getting offensive snaps anyway.

[Jetster]

12 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

 Cousins absolutely.

I'd only take Alex Smith and Brees if we also drafted a QB high. But who knows what direction they would take if they signed one of them. 

I really don't understand why Garrappolo is getting so much love for such an unknown. But I guess that's just what the market is. 

Cousins should be #1 target ABSOLUTELY! I cant for the life of me believe for 1 second that the Skins would let him out of the building. This guy can PLAY! The 49ers this year look like the 2016 version of the Jets ONLY WORSE. They have an older Oline (Beadles-30), Kilgore (29), Staley (33). They have a bunch of guys that will be 30 or older next year, Bowman (30), Dumerville (33), Mitchell NT (31), Celek (30), Garcon (32), plus Hyde has at 27 has twice the mileage a back like Powell has & has been injured before.

I know that the script is Cousins goes to be with his mentor Shanahan, but if I'm Macc, Bowles, C.Johnson, I'm selling that the Jets are much farther along & will be competing NEXT YEAR in the AFC East if he climbs on board the Jet train! I think the Jets have much better young players & potential than the 49ers. Better defense, younger Oline, a good mix of Vets & young offensive players in Kearse, ASJ, maybe Enunwa back, Anderson, Stewart, Hansen?, Powell, McGuire, a bunch of money. 

If the Skins f*ck this up, NY Jets does not look like the abyss it once was. Especially if we see Stewart & Hansen prove to be players in 2017.

[ScarletKnight89]

The guy I like the most is Josh Rosen. But I'd take Kirk Cousins any day if the Jets went the FA route.

[Beerfish]

Beware the backup QB who does not play but plays on a good team with a good starter, especially on really really good teams, total fools gold.

Draft Qb's till we find one.  If this team was further along such as the jets were when they dumbly drafted sanchez then id say go for it get a proven vet.

[shuler82]

Josh McCown didn't make this list. Weird.

[Maxman]

3 hours ago, sourceworx said:

McCarron is interesting to me. He wouldn't be very expensive, and wouldn't prohibit you from taking a QB in the draft. The problem is he may end up as the Bengals' starter before this season is over.

He is the poor mans Mike Glennon lol.

[Lupz27]

39 minutes ago, Maxman said:

He is the poor mans Mike Glennon lol.

I thought Mike Glennon was the poor mans Mike Glennon?

[#27TheDominator]

At least McCarron's neck won't distract the other players in the huddle.

[UntouchableCrew]

I know drafting a rookie is a gamble but at least it's a cheap gamble.

Are people really confident in these FAs that they're worth the massive contracts they're going to demand? Kirk Cousins is probably going to get something in the neighborhood of 6 years 150+ million with 65 million guaranteed, locking us into him for years and years.

Meanwhile we can develop our own guy who could very well be much better.

[DMan77]

13 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I know drafting a rookie is a gamble but at least it's a cheap gamble.

Are people really confident in these FAs that they're worth the massive contracts they're going to demand? Kirk Cousins is probably going to get something in the neighborhood of 6 years 150+ million with 65 million guaranteed, locking us into him for years and years.

Meanwhile we can develop our own guy who could very well be much better.

It's tricky...I think if your team has everything else, or is just a step or three away, then yes you overpay for a QB and hope you can fill in the cracks in the draft or trade or other FA... 

But when you're lacking on talent, and don't have anything around him, then no I don't think it's worth the massive contract. I think it handcuffs you from building the foundations you need to around him.

But that's just me. I know there's certainly a philosophy that says you get a QB at any cost and then just try and fill in every other blank...

For me though, I want some things already in place before I hand over a ginormous contract to someone. Maybe it's having a solid OL, or some stud WRs or a great pass rush... Just something that can compliment the QB.

[UntouchableCrew]

1 minute ago, DMan77 said:

It's tricky...I think if your team has everything else, or is just a step or three away, then yes you overpay for a QB and hope you can fill in the cracks in the draft or trade or other FA... 

But when you're lacking on talent, and don't have anything around him, then no I don't think it's worth the massive contract. I think it handcuffs you from building the foundations you need to around him.

But that's just me. I know there's certainly a philosophy that says you get a QB at any cost and then just try and fill in every other blank...

For me though, I want somethings already in place before I hand over a ginormous contract to someone.

Right. I'd rather draft a QB and use the cap space to add pieces around him to give him a chance. Spending so much money on a FA QB when the team isn't close... I dunno doesn't make much sense.

[Bugg]

4 hours ago, Obrien2Toon said:

That part about Garapolo getting franchised and making 7M more than Brady is ridiculous.

They really need to look into the Pats shady dealings with Brady

The Pats will figure some way to finagle having both Brady and Garapolo, unless of course Brady retires. Despite all the bravado the Pats defense awfulness means Brady is passing way more than any 40 year old should. He's taking lots of hits and bumps. Not written in stone he will be back.