Breer: The 2018 Veteran QB Market

[Paradis]

2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Out at a drinking function.  How has Falk looked tonight?  Saw the 13-10 score I think?

Oregon's D is bringing the heat. He had one drive with 3 NFL throws. The rest has been up and down. Threw a few balls behind his receivers. 

[Mogglez]

4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Oregon's D is bringing the heat. He had one drive with 3 NFL throws. The rest has been up and down. Threw a few balls behind his receivers. 

Thanks.  I gotta catch up to him and Mayfield when I get home tonight.  Particularly Baker because of the upset.  Any insight on that guy too?

[Greenseed4]

47 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Yeah. That Chiefs offense is actually loaded with weapons, they have phenomenal coaching, and they have a great defense to compliment it.  Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, by themselves, are better than anything we've had on offense in the last 10 years.  You're delusional if you believe anything otherwise.  

A rookie WR or Lineman doesn't make us better than mediocre.  In a couple of weeks, after we've played the meat  I of our schedule, all of you #realfans will fall right off your cloud 9 high from beating the Dolphins and Jaguars and realize that we're not close to competing.  We're just the best "bad" team around.  

We're not competing next year.  We're not a potentially sneaky team this year.  We're not "better than people think".  We just played two teams who just happen to suck more than us.  The only reason Alex Smith would be a perfect fit for us is because he's mediocre without the pieces around him.  Just like this team.

The weaponz you're touting as the next big thing were all found in the third round or later.

Part of the reason they're doing well is the man under center throwing to them.  

[Paradis]

5 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Thanks.  I gotta catch up to him and Mayfield when I get home tonight.  Particularly Baker because of the upset.  Any insight on that guy too?

nope - i was on daddy duty. I have that one PVR'd for the same reason later

[Paradis]

Falk came out of the half swinging. Looking good.

[kdels62]

4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Falk came out of the half swinging. Looking good.

That TD throw was better than anything we've seen from McCown all season.

[greenwave81]

On 10/5/2017 at 10:30 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

No doubt. It's worthwhile to find out if Petty is adequate as a backup. I'll allow that he isn't automatically adequate just because it's his 4th season. If they feel he isn't nearly as good as McCown - who belongs as a backup himself - then it's wise to see how much less.

They don't necessarily need to spend several million on a veteran just because they decide Petty or Hackenberg (or both) are unworthy of the #2 spot next year. Clemens, Moore, Daniel, and plenty of others hover around the $1m to $1.5m/year mark, and there are younger FA veterans as well. They can spot start, but won't endanger a rookie sitting because (in his first rookie summer) he's not already clearly better than the next Fitz/McCown I fear we'll add.

I'm fine with the 2018 depth: #1 draft pick - #2 $1m veteran - #3 winner between Hack/Petty. But they have to get one of the other two on the field to help make that judgment.

I get that they see them every day in practice and we don't, but c'mon not every QB plays as well as in practice when they know they can (and will) get hit. They're not helpless babies; each has started plenty of football games before. I'm not in favor of those two playing a combined half a season or less in 2017 and then committing 2/3 of our QB depth chart to them in 2018. Something like that could lead to starting a draft pick before he's ready as well, simply because they still have no confidence in either of the other two.

I think we mostly agree; McCown has to get off the field. Particularly if the rookie WRs aren't getting offensive snaps anyway.

Thank you...I've been posting that in multiple threads myself.  McCown has no business being on the field...at all.  He serves NO purpose, especially with veteran WR's getting the majority of the snaps.

[AFJF]

On 05/10/2017 at 7:03 PM, UntouchableCrew said:

I know drafting a rookie is a gamble but at least it's a cheap gamble.

Are people really confident in these FAs that they're worth the massive contracts they're going to demand? Kirk Cousins is probably going to get something in the neighborhood of 6 years 150+ million with 65 million guaranteed, locking us into him for years and years.

Meanwhile we can develop our own guy who could very well be much better.

The last thing I'm worried about is watching this team pinch pennies while they pass on proven QB's and only take a QB at the top of round one.  Then we get to watch Cousins ball out or Smith continue winning 70% of his games while the Jets wind up with another Mark Sanchez.  Get two and if they both pan out, you're in a good spot.

[AFJF]

I'd happily take a proven vet with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio over the past seven seasons.

 

 

[Mogglez]

1 hour ago, Greenseed4 said:

The weaponz you're touting as the next big thing were all found in the third round or later.

Part of the reason they're doing well is the man under center throwing to them.  

Not really, but you can keep telling yourself that to make yourself feel better about signing him next year.

Hill and Hunt are extraordinary talents that have thrived because of great coaching.  They, and that coaching staff, have done an even better job of making a very average to mediocre QB look decent.

[Mogglez]

36 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I'd happily take a proven vet with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio over the past seven seasons.

 

 

Again, if you think that is what you're gonna get with Alex Smith here, you're not gonna have a ton of fun.

[Mogglez]

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

We win a couple games against bottom feeders -- and all of sudden people are talking about signing Alex Smith to 20mil and going all in?!?! WTF is going on around here??

#RealFanz.

That's what's going on.

[Mogglez]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

nope - i was on daddy duty. I have that one PVR'd for the same reason later

Cool, gimme your thoughts when you catch up because I'm sure you'll get there before me.  I'm not going to lie, I enjoy watching Mayfield.  I see a lot of Russell Wilson there.  The whole transfer of schools arch is pretty similar too.  I think the  drug free Johnny Manziel is the lazy comp.  Baker actually looks like he could fit into a pro style offense.  Truth be told, I think he's another out of this class that would do quite well in our WCO.

[AFJF]

4 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Again, if you think that is what you're gonna get with Alex Smith here, you're not gonna have a ton of fun.

I don’t know what his exact stats will be but I’m not sure anyone else does either.  

[Greenseed4]

8 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Not really, but you can keep telling yourself that to make yourself feel better about signing him next year.

Hill and Hunt are extraordinary talents that have thrived because of great coaching.  They, and that coaching staff, have done an even better job of making a very average to mediocre QB look decent.

Have you seen Alex Smith 2017?

He is playing lights out. 

[Mogglez]

8 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I don’t know what his exact stats will be but I’m not sure anyone else does either.  

You're right.  No one does.  However, his track record on teams with mediocre-bad talent is pretty damning and it's a the best thing you can go off of considering that we are, at best, a bad-mediocre team.  The worst thing you could do is set yourself up for disappointment by looking at the Chiefs situation compared to the Jets and expecting to get the same results.  

[Mogglez]

5 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Have you seen Alex Smith 2017?

He is playing lights out. 

Yeah. 

I've seen the same game managing QB who couldn't (or wouldn't) throw the ball deep if he had a shotgun pointed at his head.  I see the same limitations I've seen going back to 2011, except his coaching staff has done a phenomenal job of compensating for them with deadly offensive weapons that the Jets don't come close to possessing.

If you think that Alex Smith would be putting up those numbers with our roster, you're beyond reason.

[Greenseed4]

9 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Yeah. 

I've seen the same game managing QB who couldn't (or wouldn't) throw the ball deep if he had a shotgun pointed at his head.  I see the same limitations I've seen going back to 2011, except his coaching staff has done a phenomenal job of compensating for them with deadly offensive weapons that the Jets don't come close to possessing.

If you think that Alex Smith would be putting up those numbers with our roster, you're beyond reason.

Right. Except now he's throwing the deep ball, hence the deep threat (Hill) having game. He hasn't started taking deep shots like this until Mahommes started lighting it up in preseason...breathing down his neck

If he's available, and we are out of position to draft Darnold, Rosen, or Allen...(note: our current draft slot would be #17 if the season ended today), we would be better off with a "mediocre" vet than a mediocre rookie who can't take snaps under center. 

[Mogglez]

13 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Right. Except now he's throwing the deep ball, hence the deep threat (Hill) having game. He hasn't started taking deep shots like this until Mahommes started lighting it up in preseason...breathing down his neck

If he's available, and we are out of position to draft Darnold, Rosen, or Allen...(note: our current draft slot would be #17 if the season ended today), we would be better off with a "mediocre" vet than a mediocre rookie who can't take snaps under center. 

Yeah nah, I'd be willing to bet that his ridiculous jump to 8.8 yards per attempt drops wayyyy back down to match up closer to his pathetic career average of 6.8, but whatever psychs you up for the dink and dunk phenom next year.

Even if you actually believe this ridiculous notion of Mahomes breathing down his neck, forcing him to suddenly care about taking chances, his career suggests that this is an outlier for the guy and isn't sustainable or repeatable with the same results.  This type of #positivethinking is what landed Fitzpatrick a 12 million dollar deal despite everyone except the #realfanz seeing the true Fitz for what he was, and look at how that turned out.

Also, stop putting Allen as a top 3 QB as if missing out on him is some sort of massive loss.  He f*cking blows chunks.  Missing out on that scrub would be a blessing.

[Greenseed4]

1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

Yeah nah, I'd be willing to bet that his ridiculous jump to 8.8 yards per attempt drops wayyyy back down to match up closer to his pathetic career average of 6.8, but whatever psychs you up for the dink and dunk phenom next year.

Even if you actually believe this ridiculous notion of Mahomes breathing down his neck, forcing him to suddenly care about taking chances, his career suggests that this is an outlier for the guy and isn't sustainable or repeatable with the same results.  This type of #positivethinking is what landed Fitzpatrick a 12 million dollar deal despite everyone except the #realfanz seeing the true Fitz for what he was, and look at how that turned out.

Also, stop putting Allen as a top 3 QB as if missing out on him is some sort of massive loss.  He f*cking blows chunks.  Missing out on that scrub would be a blessing

They picked Mahommes at #10. I think Alex Smith noticed.  

Maybe he didn't. Maybe it's just a coincidence that they lost Maclin, Charles, and Ware and all of a sudden Smith has the league best QB rating. Prolly because of Tyreek Hill, Albert Wilson, Chris Conley and Kelce. Amirite?! Weaponz, right? 

There are at least 26 teams with MORE weaponz. Your argument is a joke.

But that's cause you're not a #realfan, right? You just want to complain about the sad state of the team because our young roster is winning games. 

You want us to lose so we can can fit your agenda and draft Rosen, but guess what, if we are outside the top-5 we ain't getting Sam, or either of the Joshes.  Nobody should give a sh*t about your QB evals. 

Not just because you are stuck in 2016; when Rosen had six games worth of decent YouTube highlights and all Alex Smith did was lead his team to the playoffs. But because you're (1) discounting one of the most physically talented prospects (who plays in a pro style system, and has landed on every pundits' watch list) and (2) you're knocking Smith for being an accurate passer who "manages" games because he's careful with the ball, and last season he excelled at dinking-and-dunking--Newsflash: we run a dink-and-dunk offense.  

If we can't draft one of the top-3 draft prospects, perhaps we should look into getting a decent QB in free agency. 

Smith just happens to be one.  There are others. I imagine we'll explore those options as well.  If that's okay with you.  If not, perhaps you're the ridiculous delusional #nonfan. 

[BigO]

On 10/5/2017 at 9:18 AM, The Crusher said:

" Jay Cutler pretty average?" Child please!

Mac you dumbass. Should have signed Cutler not McCowan. We would have that precious #1 pick. ?

[BigO]

On 10/5/2017 at 8:32 PM, Lil Woody said:

Cousins is either a Redskin or a 49er.

The rest of the options are just sh*t.

Can't wait to see which journeyman scrub we rally behind for 2018.  This carousel is ******* awesome...RIGHT?

Cousins is a 49'er in waiting. Signed sealed delivered.  That's another team off the list to draft a QB in 2018.  McCowan will start here next year - guaranteed- and we'll draft some QB with our #1. No way Mac signs an expensive free agent QB.  This team has mediocre talent and desperately needs upgrades everywhere. 

[AFJF]

21 minutes ago, BigO said:

Cousins is a 49'er in waiting. Signed sealed delivered.  That's another team off the list to draft a QB in 2018.  McCowan will start here next year - guaranteed- and we'll draft some QB with our #1. No way Mac signs an expensive free agent QB.  This team has mediocre talent and desperately needs upgrades everywhere. 

This is not true.

[KRL]

I've been saying this since camp, name recognition does not equate to talent.
Stop rating this team according to whether you know a player's name or not.
The perfect example has been Revis and Mo Claibrone.  Even now media & fans
still know Revis name more than Claiborne's.  But Claiborne is a far superior
CB than Revis was over the last 1.5 years of his career

[Mogglez]

6 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

They picked Mahommes at #10. I think Alex Smith noticed.  

Yup. Alex Smith finally decided to become good because of the first round draft pick.  You got me.

Maybe he didn't. Maybe it's just a coincidence that they lost Maclin, Charles, and Ware and all of a sudden Smith has the league best QB rating. Prolly because of Tyreek Hill, Albert Wilson, Chris Conley and Kelce. Amirite?! Weaponz, right? 

Yeah you goober.  The great coaching staff has helped too, the one point you keep casually glancing over.  Andy Reid and his offensive staff are a world's difference from Todd f*cking Bowles.

There are at least 26 teams with MORE weaponz. Your argument is a joke.

The only joke here is that you think Alex Smith, after over a decade in the league, has finally become a Tom Brady type of QB who elevates everyone around him and is no longer the pathetic game manager he's been since Jim Harbaugh came in and made him something other than a massive bust.

But that's cause you're not a #realfan, right? You just want to complain about the sad state of the team because our young roster is winning games. 

No, I'm not a #realfan.  #RealFanz like you have been blowing their loads to the wins against the Dolphins, who just got shut out by the Saints defense (lol) 20-0, and the Jaguars, a team that might have a worse QB situation than us.

You want us to lose so we can can fit your agenda and draft Rosen, but guess what, if we are outside the top-5 we ain't getting Sam, or either of the Joshes.  Nobody should give a sh*t about your QB evals. 

I want us to lose so we can finally grab a franchise QB. Idgaf whether or not people want to read my evaluations.

Not just because you are stuck in 2016; when Rosen had six games worth of decent YouTube highlights and all Alex Smith did was lead his team to the playoffs. But because you're (1) discounting one of the most physically talented prospects (who plays in a pro style system, and has landed on every pundits' watch list) and (2) you're knocking Smith for being an accurate passer who "manages" games because he's careful with the ball, and last season he excelled at dinking-and-dunking--Newsflash: we run a dink-and-dunk offense.  

Anyone capable of having a coherent thought process knew about Rosen and his talent well before 2016.  I said that if he was fully healed up, he'd pass Sam before last f*cking summer.  Maybe people should actually listen to me because I got laughed at then, and now a lot of those same people are in my corner wondering what the hell happened to Darnold. 

Josh Allen f*cking sucks.  No one gives a f*ck about his billion dollar body because anyone with a clue knows the guy has a 1 cent brain.  Hackenberg still has all the tools in the world.  How has he done?  Lemme guess your response to this one :"hE's sTiLl YoUnG, wE sHoLdN't GiVe Up On HiM!!!1!"  Sounds to me like you're the one no one should listen too when it comes to QBs.  Alex "literally Peyton Manning" Smith and Josh Allen?  LOL.

We run a West Coast Offense that, in a perfect world, would be identical to the WCO that Sean Payton runs.  It has a ton of deep stuff in it.  Our QBs f*cking suck.  That's the only problem that has left us a dink and dunk team.

If we can't draft one of the top-3 draft prospects, perhaps we should look into getting a decent QB in free agency.

This has definitely worked out well for us, and many others, in the past.  

Smith just happens to be one.  There are others. I imagine we'll explore those options as well.  If that's okay with you.  If not, perhaps you're the ridiculous delusional #nonfan. 

Smith f*cking blows.  The only QB that is remotely close to being interesting is Garoppolo because he was a great QB prospect himself and is in a unique situation that will allow him to shake free.  The only ridiculous people on this forum are the guys like you, who haven't learned a damn thing from Fitzpatrick and are stoked on beating the Dolphins and Jaguars.  We aren't going to the playoffs.  We aren't gonna surprise people.  We're gonna pick welllllllll ahead of #17.  We'll win today, but after that?  Get ready sunshine.

 

[Mogglez]

1 hour ago, AFJF said:

This is not true.

Yeah it is.

[Mogglez]

10 hours ago, Paradis said:

Falk came out of the half swinging. Looking good.

Just caught up.  "Slow" start but, my goodness, did he respond well.  I want him.  I want him really bad.

[AFJF]

Just now, Mogglez said:

Yeah it is.

Only if you’re of the belief that any player who is not All-Pro must suck, because there’s no such thing as middle ground or “good” players.

 

[The Crusher]

1 hour ago, BigO said:

Mac you dumbass. Should have signed Cutler not McCowan. We would have that precious #1 pick. ?

Easily. 

[Mogglez]

13 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Only if you’re of the belief that any player who is not All-Pro must suck, because there’s no such thing as middle ground or “good” players.

 

Middle ground would be considered "mediocre".  Most of our offensive weapons fall underneath that category.  I like Anderson, Stewart, ASJ, McGuire, and even Kearse.  I wanna see what Chad Hansen could do, but Bowles would rather trot out Kerley so it'll be a while before I can see that.

They are not enough to win a title and they are not remotely close to being the talent that someone like Smith needs to look competent.  At least not yet.  Our WR1 isn't on this roster if I had to guess.

This "hype" people have given some of these guys reminds me of 2013 when people thought that David Nelson was a "good" player.  Then 2014 happened and people realized, after Decker got hurt, that mayyyyyyybe David Nelson, Jeremy Kerley, and Chaz Schilens weren't the underrated studs they were making them out to be.

[AFJF]

2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Middle ground would be considered "mediocre".  Most of our offensive weapons fall underneath that category.  I like Anderson, Stewart, ASJ, McGuire, and even Kearse.  

They are not enough to win a title and they are not remotely close to being the talent that someone like Smith needs to look competent.  At least not yet.

This "hype" people have given some of these guys reminds me of 2013 when people thought that David Nelson was a "good" player.  Then 2014 happened and people realized, after Decker got hurt, that mayyyyyyybe David Nelson, Jeremy Kerley, and Chaz Schilens weren't the underrated studs they were making them out to be.

ASJ, Powell, McGuire, Carpenter, Shell, Kearse, Anderson, Kerley, Winters, Stewart are just fine IMO. Could they add some players to improve the position groups?  Sure.  Do they have to replace all of them because none of them are talented?  I don’t think so.

[AFJF]

And we’re not even including Leggett who can’t block to save his life, but has a high ceiling as a pass catcher.

I get that fans are mad, but saying there’s no talent or there are “holes everywhere” is incorrect IMO.

[Mogglez]

Just now, AFJF said:

ASJ, Powell, McGuire, Carpenter, Shell, Kearse, Anderson, Kerley, Winters, Stewart are just fine IMO. Could they add some players to improve the position groups?  Sure.  Do they have to replace all of them because none of them are talented?  I don’t think so.

Kerley is eh, I don't know if the Jets actually decide to keep Carp after this contract is up.  I love the guy, but we'll see.  It might cost a good chunk of change to re-sign him.  Everyone else on that list we can agree on.  However, my guess is that, again, our WR1 isn't on this roster.

[AFJF]

17 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Kerley is eh, I don't know if the Jets actually decide to keep Carp after this contract is up.  I love the guy, but we'll see.  It might cost a good chunk of change to re-sign him.  Everyone else on that list we can agree on.  However, my guess is that, again, our WR1 isn't on this roster.

Could be the case with Carp if he becomes a deadline trade chip to add picks.

WR1 may not be on the roster, but nowadays, teams produce w/o one anyway.  If you have a few guys you can send out there to get some mismatches, you can win.

If ASJ and Stewart keep doing what they’re doing, those two and Robby will fall in to that category IMO. 

Then of course Bilal and for the longer-term, McGuire, who should be able to do that as well.

As much as I may get hell for it, I haven’t given up on Jalin Marshall either.  Could be a much better slot guy than Kerley over time.

Also, I don’t see any upgrades at safety being necessary?

[dbatesman]

42 minutes ago, AFJF said:

ASJ, Powell, McGuire, Carpenter, Shell, Kearse, Anderson, Kerley, Winters, Stewart are just fine IMO. Could they add some players to improve the position groups?  Sure.  Do they have to replace all of them because none of them are talented?  I don’t think so.

 

39 minutes ago, AFJF said:

And we’re not even including Leggett who can’t block to save his life, but has a high ceiling as a pass catcher.

I get that fans are mad, but saying there’s no talent or there are “holes everywhere” is incorrect IMO.

Kerley and ASJ are up after this season. Powell, Carpenter, and Kearse are up after next season. I don't love PFF but for whatever it's worth, Shell is 63rd in the league in their tackle rankings. Leggett has played literally zero snaps this season.

When people say we have "holes everywhere," they mean that in addition to keeping up with this kind of attrition, we also have zero--literally zero--promising players at QB, LT, WR1, CB1, and edge rusher.