Early projection of 2018 NFL draft order

[Fantasy Island]

Mac is NOT picking a QB in the draft.  He already has Hackenberg and that is just the way it is going to be.  Sad but true.

[DMan77]

If you look at the current starters (or the presumed ones if some weren't injured) you'll see that 13 of them were picked 1,2,3 or 4... The remaining 19 starting QBs in the NFL were taken AFTER the top 5... 

Not all QBs and not all situations are created equal. These numbers aren't a perfect representation...

But this idea that you can only land a starting caliber QB if you're in the top 5 just doesn't match the numbers... I understanding wanting that top pick because you get to choose... But this idea that picking out of the top 4 or 5 is some kind of a death sentence just isn't right. Plenty of teams, now and in the past, have picked after the top 5 and come away with starter... 

That's the best (but of course not only) road to success in my mind... Not tanking and getting a 1st pick... It's having a young core and foundation in place because you had a few good drafts and solid roster moves; and then hitting a QB somewhere along the line. Those are the teams that succeed the quickest.

Team	Round	Pick	Name
Bucs	1	1	Winston
Cards	1	1	Palmer
Chiefs	1	1	Smith
Colts	1	1	Luck
Giants	1	1	Manning
Lions	1	1	Stanford
Panthers	1	1	Newton
Rams	1	1	Goff
Vikings (2)	1	1	Bradford
Eagles	1	2	Wentz
Titans	1	2	Mariota
Falcons	1	3	Ryan
Jags	1	3	Bortles
Chargers	1	4	Rivers
Dolphins (2)	1	9	Tannehill
Dolphins	1	11	Cutler
Steelers	1	11	Roethlisberger
Texans	1	12	Watson
Ravens	1	18	Flacco
Packers	1	24	Rodgers
Vikings	1	32	Bridgewater
Saints	2	32	Brees
Bengals	2	35	Dalton
Raiders	2	36	Carr
Browns	2	52	Kizer
Bears	3	73	Glennon
Seahwaks	3	75	Wilson
Jets	3	81	McCown
Redskins	4	102	Cousins
Cowboys	4	135	Prescott
Bills	6	180	Taylor
Pats	6	199	Brady
Bronocs	7	250	Siemian
49ers	NA	NA	Hoyer

[AFJF]

2 minutes ago, DMan77 said:

If you look at the current starters (or the presumed ones if  some weren't injured) you'll see that 13 of them were picked 1,2,3 or 4... The remaining 19 starting QBs in the NFL were taken AFTER the top 5... 

Not all QBs and not all situations are created equal. These numbers aren't a perfect representation...

But this idea that you can only land a starting caliber QB if you're in the top 5 just doesn't match the numbers... I understanding wanting that top pick because you get to choose... But this idea that picking out of the top 4 or 5 is some kind of a death sentence just isn't right. Plenty of teams, now and in the past, have picked after the top 5 and come away with starter... 

That's the best (but of course not only) road to success in my mind... Not tanking and getting a 1st pick... It's having a young core and foundation in place and then hitting a QB somewhere along the line. Those are the teams that succeed the quickest.

Team	Round	Pick	Name
Bucs	1	1	Winston
Cards	1	1	Palmer
Chiefs	1	1	Smith
Colts	1	1	Luck
Giants	1	1	Manning
Lions	1	1	Stanford
Panthers	1	1	Newton
Rams	1	1	Goff
Vikings (2)	1	1	Bradford
Eagles	1	2	Wentz
Titans	1	2	Mariota
Falcons	1	3	Ryan
Jags	1	3	Bortles
Chargers	1	4	Rivers
Dolphins (2)	1	9	Tannehill
Dolphins	1	11	Cutler
Steelers	1	11	Roethlisberger
Texans	1	12	Watson
Ravens	1	18	Flacco
Packers	1	24	Rodgers
Vikings	1	32	Bridgewater
Saints	2	32	Brees
Bengals	2	35	Dalton
Raiders	2	36	Carr
Browns	2	52	Kizer
Bears	3	73	Glennon
Seahwaks	3	75	Wilson
Jets	3	81	McCown
Redskins	4	102	Cousins
Cowboys	4	135	Prescott
Bills	6	180	Taylor
Pats	6	199	Brady
Bronocs	7	250	Siemian
49ers	NA	NA	Hoyer

Players taken in top 10 with a SB win: Manning

Players outside of top 10 with a SB win: Roethlesberger, Flacco, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Brady*

[CrazyCarl40]

6 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

We'll have a high 1, 2 seconds, and what people will predict will be a high 1 next year.... That's enough ammo to move up

Other teams like the Bills have more ammo. Won’t matter if Macc is still the GM. He won’t give up what’s necessary to get a real QB to the Jets. 

[CanadaSteve]

6 hours ago, AFJF said:

Players taken in top 10 with a SB win: Manning

Players outside of top 10 with a SB win: Roethlesberger, Flacco, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Brady*

I posted the EXACT same information about 7 days ago, and was basically told SO WHAT by a few of the tank crowd.  You got a heart.  What's your secret to attracting the ladies?  You hold the answers AFJF!

[batman10023]

9 hours ago, AFJF said:

Cool....give up whatever you have to give to get in the top three and grab a QB.

A few still viewed as top talents by NFL evaluators according to this today from Albert Breer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

if they are all top 10 prospects (the QBs), i bet they all go in the top 5. 

[CanadaSteve]

Just to show AFJF I wasn't kidding:

 

[BCJet]

9 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Aaron Rodgers says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to 24th...

Drew Brees says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to the 2nd round

OH WAIT!  Brett Favre did too....

 

Dont forget Big Ben - 3rd Qb taken in a "Great QB Draft" at pick 11

Its actually depressing coming on this board and seeing actual fans who honestly believe its possible to lose games on purpose.  Could Mac force Bowles to start Hackenberg, sure - and that would like appease 2% of the fans. While doing the following:

1.  Putting hackenberg and the others at risk to be injured if he isnt prepared with protections, etc.

2.  Ensure that the rest of the league, who Mac may need to have hire him at some point, thinks he is a complete idiot

3.  Stunt the development of the young players who have spent the last 15-20 years as winners

4.  Still not ensure the top pick

You guys who think the players can lose on purpose, arent the ones who are essentially betting their career, earnings potential, family etc on this.  None of Mac, Bowles, Hugh Jackson, Kyle Shanahan, or any of the other front office or HCs in the league are trying to lose games.

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

11 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

Having the Giants sitting in front of the Jets would give me anxiety the entire time until they're on the clock. Imagine the blow of them taking the 2nd best QB right before the Jets. Wouldn't be able to live with the aftermath.

almost so perfectly Jetsy it has to happen 

[Obrien2Toon]

11 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

If that's how it worked out, I actually don't think the Jets would be in such bad position. Aside from the Browns, they could trade up with just about anybody in front of them if they really wanted to move. From the Niners to the Giants, I think they'd all be interested in getting more picks to build their roster. 

 

Niners are taking a qb, no way they trade down

[AFJF]

50 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

if they are all top 10 prospects (the QBs), i bet they all go in the top 5. 

Yup, that’s why I said if you’re at five or six or seven, you trade up.

Looks like a couple teams who don’t need a QB will be in the top 3.

Indy has Luck and SF will likely get Cousins and the Bears just took Trubisky.

You don’t think one of those three would move down 3-5 spots to pick up a couple extra first rounders?

[Obrien2Toon]

9 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Aaron Rodgers says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to 24th...

Drew Brees says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to the 2nd round

OH WAIT!  Brett Favre did too....

 

So did Nagle, Clemens, Geno, Hack

[AFJF]

2 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

Niners are taking a qb, no way they trade down

Good.  If the niners take a QB, the Jets sign Cousins and draft best available QB at 6 or 38.

[AFJF]

40 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Just to show AFJF I wasn't kidding:

 

Good stuff.

I get the fascination with getting the “top guy”, but it’s not as if those guys always pan out and you can’t win a SB with guys taken outside of the top two or top five.

 

[nyjunc]

some fans enjoy the draft more than actual games, I will never understand it.

[Gastineau Lives]

53 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Dont forget Big Ben - 3rd Qb taken in a "Great QB Draft" at pick 11

Its actually depressing coming on this board and seeing actual fans who honestly believe its possible to lose games on purpose. 

Literally 0 people believe this. It's depressing that people continue to argue this point with a wall.

[FTL Jet Fan]

12 hours ago, Maddog45 said:

The guy is an idiot for stating the truth ? Lmao wow

He is a Di*k because first they say we are tanking and this goof comes and says we can't event tank right. F*ck him, and F ESPN. I just want our team to be a contender hopefully with a young franchise QB, how ever we find him. 

[Gastineau Lives]

27 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Good stuff.

I get the fascination with getting the “top guy”, but it’s not as if those guys always pan out and you can’t win a SB with guys taken outside of the top two or top five.

 

This literally has nothing to do with Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and BakerMayfieldlamarrjacksonfalkrudolph, so unless you're prepared to talk about how it is specifically better to take one of those guys ahead of Darnold and Rosen, you're just giving a history lesson.

You are saying, quite literally, "Baker Mayfield is just as good or better than Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold because Aaron Rodgers was picked at 24 and Ben Roethlisberger was picked at 11. I am also comfortable waiting until the 3rd round to take a QB because that's where Russell Wilson went."

or you are saying:

"Welp, anything can happen, I don't have a specific idea what that is, but I'm sure it's going to be great."

[Warfish]

19 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

some fans enjoy the draft more than actual games, I will never understand it.

Spot on. 

I blame the whole "Fantasy Football" thing for two things:

1. Making once-dedicated "Team fans" into more generic "NFL fans".  Guys who care as much about how the QB of the Lions do as they do how the QB of the Jets do because somethign something fantasy team points.

2. Making fans into obsessive draft-heads.  To be fair, fantasy is only part of the blame here, the other is the massive over-commercialization of amateur (i.e. college) sports.   What was supposed to be something kids do as part of becoming adults as a side activity to their education has become a massive industry of exploitation and commercialism.  Because the NFL is too cheap to have it's own minor league system, they get to milk the college players for talent the same way schools milk them for money.

Add the two above issues to a desperate fanbase, and there you go.  The Draft > The Season if the season appears to be anything less than a Super Bowl.

It's why every jets forum I've been on has banished the overt draft-heads to a draft forum, because otherwise they will spam the main forum everywhere they can, making every thread a draft thread. 

Even in week 1.

Frankly, because Max is so hands off, there are alot of folks who get away with draft threads on the main forum that really belong (especially at this stage of the season) in the draft forum.  The Draft obsessives have it pretty good here at JN.

[BCJet]

9 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This literally has nothing to do with Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and BakerMayfieldlamarrjacksonfalkrudolph, so unless you're prepared to talk about how it is specifically better to take one of those guys ahead of Darnold and Rosen, you're just giving a history lesson.

You are saying, quite literally, Baker Mayfield is just as good or better than Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold because Aaron Rodgers was picked at 24 and Ben Roethlisberger was picked at 11.

Actually, no, people are not literally saying Mayfield is better then Rosen.  What people who understand how difficult evaluating QBs is are saying is that there is no guarantee whatsoever that Rosen will be better then mayfield and therefore there is no guarantee whatsoever that having the first or second pick will result in picking a better player then having the 6th or 10th pick and statistical history backs that up.

If the tankers want to say that going 0-16 would allow us to control our "draft pick destiny" moreso then picking 6-10 that fact is indisputable.  But to sit here and argue that the team should lose on purpose to take Josh Rosen, who could easily wind up being a worse NFL player then Mayfield or Luke Falk, just doesnt make sense and that is backed up by historical facts

[Warfish]

15 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This literally has nothing to do with Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and BakerMayfieldlamarrjacksonfalkrudolph, so unless you're prepared to talk about how it is specifically better to take one of those guys ahead of Darnold and Rosen, you're just giving a history lesson.

You are saying, quite literally, Baker Mayfield is just as good or better than Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold because Aaron Rodgers was picked at 24 and Ben Roethlisberger was picked at 11.

A valid point. 

Each class of prospective QB's should be evaluated on their own merit, not based on what different people in different classes on different teams did years ago.

With that said, I hope you're consistent here:  For example, when a posters says "we should play Petty/Hack more, after all, Manning was 3-13 in HIS first season!".

Now, on the issue of who we pick:

We will not have the #1 or #2 picks.  Math all but eliminates that as a possibility now.  Thus Darnold and Rosen may/are out of our ability to pick. 

Logic would indicate we fans should be watching, and evaluating, the other prospects we WILL have a chance to draft.  Players like Mayfield, Falk, etc.

[KRL]

What's sad about these threads is the majority of people talking about the QB's in the
draft have never seen them.  All they're doing is repeating what they heard about the
QB's from the local media (who also have never seen them).  So it's really the blind
leading the blind, anyone who has truly watched college football knows that there are
multiple first round QB's this year.  It's up to the front office to pick the right
one

[Gastineau Lives]

Just now, Warfish said:

A valid point. 

Each class of prospective QB's should be evaluated on their own merit, not based on what different people in different classes on different teams did years ago.

With that said, I hope you're consistent here:  For example, when a posters says "we should play Petty/Hack more, after all, Manning was 3-13 in HIS first season!".

Now, on the issue of who we pick:

We will not have the #1 or #2 picks.  Thus Darnold and Rosen may/are out of our ability to pick. 

Logic would indicate we fans should be watching, and evaluating, the other prospects we WILL have a chance to draft.  Players like Mayfield, Falk, etc.

I definitely will be paying more attention to them and, if we draft one of them will be optimistic and enthusiastic about the good parts of their games and hope they develop. As Jet fans, all we ever seem to have is optimism and disappointment. Maybe this time we don't get the latter.

[Gastineau Lives]

3 minutes ago, KRL said:

What's sad about these threads is the majority of people talking about the QB's in the
draft have never seen them.  All they're doing is repeating what they heard about the
QB's from the local media (who also have never seen them).  So it's really the blind
leading the blind, anyone who has truly watched college football knows that there are
multiple first round QB's this year.  It's up to the front office to pick the right
one

This is true. But if you had to lay odds on which QB's would be the best ones with the surest chance of success, what would those look like? Can you live with a Baker Mayfield or a Luke Falk or Lamarr Jackson or a Mason Rudolph if you build a good enough team around them? I'm honestly asking because you are knowledgeable about these things and I respect your opinion.

[Gastineau Lives]

10 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Actually, no, people are not literally saying Mayfield is better then Rosen.  What people who understand how difficult evaluating QBs is are saying is that there is no guarantee whatsoever that Rosen will be better then mayfield and therefore there is no guarantee whatsoever that having the first or second pick will result in picking a better player then having the 6th or 10th pick and statistical history backs that up.

If the tankers want to say that going 0-16 would allow us to control our "draft pick destiny" moreso then picking 6-10 that fact is indisputable.  But to sit here and argue that the team should lose on purpose to take Josh Rosen, who could easily wind up being a worse NFL player then Mayfield or Luke Falk, just doesnt make sense and that is backed up by historical facts

When you say that Aaron Rodgers is awesome and he was picked at 24, you are inherently arguing that it's okay to pick a QB at 24 because number one picks don't always pan out. You are using it as an analogy for this draft, because that is the one that is being discussed, here. So yes, if you are going to use that as an argument, you must own the analogy you are making. This is not Football Draft Theory I class at The Learning Annex.

And again, no one is suggesting they lose on purpose. This team is bad enough to lose with their best effort. Or has the Cleveland Brown win caused some form of amnesia to this fact?

[Gastineau Lives]

I've forgotten Josh Allen. He's super talented, physically is all I really know about him.

[The Crusher]

4 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Other teams like the Bills have more ammo. Won’t matter if Macc is still the GM. He won’t give up what’s necessary to get a real QB to the Jets. 

Is this because he royally screwed the pooch with Hack? At this point I think he is more likely if not desperate to not do that again. I think he is likely to do whatever it takes to get a Starting level QB. So he will either over pay with draft picks or a deal for a FA QB. Classic over compensation on the brink of outright desperation. 

[BCJet]

9 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

When you say that Aaron Rodgers is awesome and he was picked at 24, you are inherently arguing that it's okay to pick a QB at 24 because number one picks don't always pan out. You are using it as an analogy for this draft, because that is the one that is being discussed, here. So yes, if you are going to use that as an argument, you must own the analogy you are making. This is not Football Draft Theory I class at The Learning Annex.

And again, no one is suggesting they lose on purpose. This team is bad enough to lose with their best effort. Or has the Cleveland Brown win caused some form of amnesia to this fact?

I never mentioned Rogers.

My point is that there is simply no way to say that this team, with an OT, DE, WR, or RB picked at pick 10, with Luke Falk or Baker Mayfield picked in the second round is a worse team then if we picked Rosen #1.  Could he be Peyton Manning, absolutely and thats why scouts love him - could he be Jeff George, absolutely.

[Gastineau Lives]

8 minutes ago, BCJet said:

I never mentioned Rogers.

My point is that there is simply no way to say that this team, with an OT, DE, WR, or RB picked at pick 10, with Luke Falk or Baker Mayfield picked in the second round is a worse team then if we picked Rosen #1.  Could he be Peyton Manning, absolutely and thats why scouts love him - could he be Jeff George, absolutely.

OT, DE, WR, RB never bust, I guess.

[CrazyCarl40]

18 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Is this because he royally screwed the pooch with Hack? At this point I think he is more likely if not desperate to not do that again. I think he is likely to do whatever it takes to get a Starting level QB. So he will either over pay with draft picks or a deal for a FA QB. Classic over compensation on the brink of outright desperation. 

I think it’s a little of him holding out hope for his 2nd rounder, but we’ve also seen in past drafts in the early rounds that he isn’t willing to go up and get the player he wants. I really don’t think he should be making the decision either way. 

[Maddog45]

52 minutes ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

He is a Di*k because first they say we are tanking and this goof comes and says we can't event tank right. F*ck him, and F ESPN. I just want our team to be a contender hopefully with a young franchise QB, how ever we find him. 

I mean we did **** up the tank job , so in theory he's right , if it's the way it's said then I understand you , he's making us seem like a joke and we still are , we haven't proven anything

[BigO]

11 hours ago, AFJF said:

Unrelated to football, but I found out years ago that in Tombstone, Val Kilmer is not saying "I'll be your Huckleberry" as many of us had assumed, but he's saying "Huckle bearer", which is another word for pallbearer, or one who carries your coffin.  Yeah, blew my mind too.

I like Huckleberry better so when I watch it again for the 24th time he'll be saying I'll be your Huckleberry. Sounds more interesting  -  then bang ? right between the eyeballs. 

Next year we need to do this to Brady and Belicheat. Not this year. I want one of those top 3 QB's. We'll be your Huckleberry.....Bang ? Bang ? 

[JetFreak89]

9 hours ago, DMan77 said:

If you look at the current starters (or the presumed ones if some weren't injured) you'll see that 13 of them were picked 1,2,3 or 4... The remaining 19 starting QBs in the NFL were taken AFTER the top 5... 

Not all QBs and not all situations are created equal. These numbers aren't a perfect representation...

But this idea that you can only land a starting caliber QB if you're in the top 5 just doesn't match the numbers... I understanding wanting that top pick because you get to choose... But this idea that picking out of the top 4 or 5 is some kind of a death sentence just isn't right. Plenty of teams, now and in the past, have picked after the top 5 and come away with starter... 

That's the best (but of course not only) road to success in my mind... Not tanking and getting a 1st pick... It's having a young core and foundation in place because you had a few good drafts and solid roster moves; and then hitting a QB somewhere along the line. Those are the teams that succeed the quickest.

Team	Round	Pick	Name
Bucs	1	1	Winston
Cards	1	1	Palmer
Chiefs	1	1	Smith
Colts	1	1	Luck
Giants	1	1	Manning
Lions	1	1	Stanford
Panthers	1	1	Newton
Rams	1	1	Goff
Vikings (2)	1	1	Bradford
Eagles	1	2	Wentz
Titans	1	2	Mariota
Falcons	1	3	Ryan
Jags	1	3	Bortles
Chargers	1	4	Rivers
Dolphins (2)	1	9	Tannehill
Dolphins	1	11	Cutler
Steelers	1	11	Roethlisberger
Texans	1	12	Watson
Ravens	1	18	Flacco
Packers	1	24	Rodgers
Vikings	1	32	Bridgewater
Saints	2	32	Brees
Bengals	2	35	Dalton
Raiders	2	36	Carr
Browns	2	52	Kizer
Bears	3	73	Glennon
Seahwaks	3	75	Wilson
Jets	3	81	McCown
Redskins	4	102	Cousins
Cowboys	4	135	Prescott
Bills	6	180	Taylor
Pats	6	199	Brady
Bronocs	7	250	Siemian
49ers	NA	NA	Hoyer

LOL, this thread is hilarious. We have some real statisticians on this board for sure. Even this post, you realize that your "evidence" completely contradicts your own point right? You just showed how you can get 13 starting QB's out of 4 picks while the other 19 were found in the other 220 picks. 

The fact that you are comparing 4 to 220 and the outcome is as close as it is proves the point that it is MUCH easier to find a starting QB within the top 4 picks than it is in the other 220. 

[FTL Jet Fan]

Just now, Maddog45 said:

I mean we did **** up the tank job , so in theory he's right , if it's the way it's said then I understand you , he's making us seem like a joke and we still are , we haven't proven anything

Exactly, we were a joke because the media parasites thought we were tanking and now we don't have a losing record so they say we can't tank right. Respectable journalism at its finest.

[Gastineau Lives]

3 minutes ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

Exactly, we were a joke because the media parasites thought we were tanking and now we don't have a losing record so they say we can't tank right. Respectable journalism at its finest.

This too, is true.