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Gas2No99

Early projection of 2018 NFL draft order

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1 hour ago, MDL_JET said:

Having the Giants sitting in front of the Jets would give me anxiety the entire time until they're on the clock. Imagine the blow of them taking the 2nd best QB right before the Jets. Wouldn't be able to live with the aftermath.

They grabbed David Webb last year. He looks like a promising prospect. Don't see them reaching for a QB with their top pick especially since Eli has several years ahead of him left.  And their OL is atrocious. They trade back and grab best LT on board.  

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39 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Cool....give up whatever you have to give to get in the top three and grab a QB.

A few still viewed as top talents by NFL evaluators according to this today from Albert Breer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We'll have a high 1, 2 seconds, and what people will predict will be a high 1 next year.... That's enough ammo to move up

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Idk it's hard to like any one other than top two , I tried looking at mayfield reminds me of manzel in NFL / maaaaybe could be Russell Wilson idk too much on him yet as in leadship skills and he lost his job to Pat Mahomes , guy from wyo has an arm and fast, pocket presence not there and decision making really iffy , Luke falk is okay , I like how he beat usc and his decision making , idk about undercenter and leadership skills and other qb qualities yet, Rudolph reminds me of Bryce petty on Baylor beating up scrubs on big 12 defenses.

Darnold has that it factor , give him the ball 2 mins left in the 4th , he's ice cold veins . Rosen reminds me of Matt Ryan could be even better . That's why I say either 1 of those 2 should be on the jets . 

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2 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

If that's how it worked out, I actually don't think the Jets would be in such bad position. Aside from the Browns, they could trade up with just about anybody in front of them if they really wanted to move. From the Niners to the Giants, I think they'd all be interested in getting more picks to build their roster. 

 

Exactly. When you project ever so slightly and look at the big picture, I don't see the Jets winning more than 6 games.  6-10 lands them at the 5-6 spot.  Browns, 49ers, Giants, Cards, Chargers and Jets - the last 3 can easily ocupy that 4th slot and with the Browns, more than likely are hunting for a QB.  So even if we fall to 6, magic number, we can get the 4th best QB on the board. And seeing how numerous ones will be available in this draft it's a positive proposition. Or, we could trade up since we have 2 #2's to work with.  Either way we getting a QB in round 1.

 

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No way I think Mac sticks with the 3-5 best qbs , and gets suck with another hackenburg , he'll get fired. If we stupidly win 6 games with mcclown I think he pulls the trigger for a top two pick like philly with wentz . People keep mentioning all these qbs that weren't top 2 picks , who cares it's luck and luck that jets don't have , if we did we would've had Marino , mo Lewis doesn't kill Bledsoe , and other crap which contributes to the SOJ. That's why I say go with the consensus top qbs , the chances of hitting are higher than those after them . The first overall team could pick anyone they want and they sure as hell aren't picking mayfield or Allen and they won't be forced to choose between them like us .

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If you look at the current starters (or the presumed ones if some weren't injured) you'll see that 13 of them were picked 1,2,3 or 4... The remaining 19 starting QBs in the NFL were taken AFTER the top 5... 

Not all QBs and not all situations are created equal. These numbers aren't a perfect representation...

But this idea that you can only land a starting caliber QB if you're in the top 5 just doesn't match the numbers... I understanding wanting that top pick because you get to choose... But this idea that picking out of the top 4 or 5 is some kind of a death sentence just isn't right. Plenty of teams, now and in the past, have picked after the top 5 and come away with starter... 

That's the best (but of course not only) road to success in my mind... Not tanking and getting a 1st pick... It's having a young core and foundation in place because you had a few good drafts and solid roster moves; and then hitting a QB somewhere along the line. Those are the teams that succeed the quickest.

Team Round Pick Name
Bucs 1 1 Winston
Cards 1 1 Palmer
Chiefs 1 1 Smith
Colts 1 1 Luck
Giants 1 1 Manning
Lions 1 1 Stanford
Panthers 1 1 Newton
Rams 1 1 Goff
Vikings (2) 1 1 Bradford
Eagles 1 2 Wentz
Titans 1 2 Mariota
Falcons 1 3 Ryan
Jags 1 3 Bortles
Chargers 1 4 Rivers
Dolphins (2) 1 9 Tannehill 
Dolphins 1 11 Cutler
Steelers 1 11 Roethlisberger 
Texans 1 12 Watson
Ravens 1 18 Flacco
Packers 1 24 Rodgers
Vikings 1 32 Bridgewater
Saints 2 32 Brees
Bengals 2 35 Dalton
Raiders 2 36 Carr
Browns 2 52 Kizer
Bears 3 73 Glennon
Seahwaks 3 75 Wilson
Jets 3 81 McCown
Redskins 4 102 Cousins
Cowboys 4 135 Prescott
Bills 6 180 Taylor
Pats 6 199 Brady
Bronocs 7 250 Siemian
49ers NA NA Hoyer
       

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2 minutes ago, DMan77 said:

If you look at the current starters (or the presumed ones if  some weren't injured) you'll see that 13 of them were picked 1,2,3 or 4... The remaining 19 starting QBs in the NFL were taken AFTER the top 5... 

Not all QBs and not all situations are created equal. These numbers aren't a perfect representation...

But this idea that you can only land a starting caliber QB if you're in the top 5 just doesn't match the numbers... I understanding wanting that top pick because you get to choose... But this idea that picking out of the top 4 or 5 is some kind of a death sentence just isn't right. Plenty of teams, now and in the past, have picked after the top 5 and come away with starter... 

That's the best (but of course not only) road to success in my mind... Not tanking and getting a 1st pick... It's having a young core and foundation in place and then hitting a QB somewhere along the line. Those are the teams that succeed the quickest.

Team Round Pick Name
Bucs 1 1 Winston
Cards 1 1 Palmer
Chiefs 1 1 Smith
Colts 1 1 Luck
Giants 1 1 Manning
Lions 1 1 Stanford
Panthers 1 1 Newton
Rams 1 1 Goff
Vikings (2) 1 1 Bradford
Eagles 1 2 Wentz
Titans 1 2 Mariota
Falcons 1 3 Ryan
Jags 1 3 Bortles
Chargers 1 4 Rivers
Dolphins (2) 1 9 Tannehill 
Dolphins 1 11 Cutler
Steelers 1 11 Roethlisberger 
Texans 1 12 Watson
Ravens 1 18 Flacco
Packers 1 24 Rodgers
Vikings 1 32 Bridgewater
Saints 2 32 Brees
Bengals 2 35 Dalton
Raiders 2 36 Carr
Browns 2 52 Kizer
Bears 3 73 Glennon
Seahwaks 3 75 Wilson
Jets 3 81 McCown
Redskins 4 102 Cousins
Cowboys 4 135 Prescott
Bills 6 180 Taylor
Pats 6 199 Brady
Bronocs 7 250 Siemian
49ers NA NA Hoyer
       

Players taken in top 10 with a SB win: Manning

Players outside of top 10 with a SB win: Roethlesberger, Flacco, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Brady*

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6 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

We'll have a high 1, 2 seconds, and what people will predict will be a high 1 next year.... That's enough ammo to move up

Other teams like the Bills have more ammo. Won’t matter if Macc is still the GM. He won’t give up what’s necessary to get a real QB to the Jets. 

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6 hours ago, AFJF said:

Players taken in top 10 with a SB win: Manning

Players outside of top 10 with a SB win: Roethlesberger, Flacco, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Brady*

I posted the EXACT same information about 7 days ago, and was basically told SO WHAT by a few of the tank crowd.  You got a heart.  What's your secret to attracting the ladies?  You hold the answers AFJF!

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9 hours ago, AFJF said:

Cool....give up whatever you have to give to get in the top three and grab a QB.

A few still viewed as top talents by NFL evaluators according to this today from Albert Breer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

if they are all top 10 prospects (the QBs), i bet they all go in the top 5. 

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9 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Aaron Rodgers says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to 24th...

Drew Brees says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to the 2nd round

OH WAIT!  Brett Favre did too....

 

Dont forget Big Ben - 3rd Qb taken in a "Great QB Draft" at pick 11

Its actually depressing coming on this board and seeing actual fans who honestly believe its possible to lose games on purpose.  Could Mac force Bowles to start Hackenberg, sure - and that would like appease 2% of the fans. While doing the following:

1.  Putting hackenberg and the others at risk to be injured if he isnt prepared with protections, etc.

2.  Ensure that the rest of the league, who Mac may need to have hire him at some point, thinks he is a complete idiot

3.  Stunt the development of the young players who have spent the last 15-20 years as winners

4.  Still not ensure the top pick

You guys who think the players can lose on purpose, arent the ones who are essentially betting their career, earnings potential, family etc on this.  None of Mac, Bowles, Hugh Jackson, Kyle Shanahan, or any of the other front office or HCs in the league are trying to lose games.

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11 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

Having the Giants sitting in front of the Jets would give me anxiety the entire time until they're on the clock. Imagine the blow of them taking the 2nd best QB right before the Jets. Wouldn't be able to live with the aftermath.

almost so perfectly Jetsy it has to happen 

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11 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

If that's how it worked out, I actually don't think the Jets would be in such bad position. Aside from the Browns, they could trade up with just about anybody in front of them if they really wanted to move. From the Niners to the Giants, I think they'd all be interested in getting more picks to build their roster. 

 

Niners are taking a qb, no way they trade down

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50 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

if they are all top 10 prospects (the QBs), i bet they all go in the top 5. 

Yup, that’s why I said if you’re at five or six or seven, you trade up.

Looks like a couple teams who don’t need a QB will be in the top 3.

Indy has Luck and SF will likely get Cousins and the Bears just took Trubisky.

You don’t think one of those three would move down 3-5 spots to pick up a couple extra first rounders?

Edited by AFJF

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9 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

Aaron Rodgers says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to 24th...

Drew Brees says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to the 2nd round

OH WAIT!  Brett Favre did too....

 

So did Nagle, Clemens, Geno, Hack

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2 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

Niners are taking a qb, no way they trade down

Good.  If the niners take a QB, the Jets sign Cousins and draft best available QB at 6 or 38.

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40 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Just to show AFJF I wasn't kidding:

 

Good stuff.

I get the fascination with getting the “top guy”, but it’s not as if those guys always pan out and you can’t win a SB with guys taken outside of the top two or top five.

 

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53 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Dont forget Big Ben - 3rd Qb taken in a "Great QB Draft" at pick 11

Its actually depressing coming on this board and seeing actual fans who honestly believe its possible to lose games on purpose. 

Literally 0 people believe this. It's depressing that people continue to argue this point with a wall.

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12 hours ago, Maddog45 said:

The guy is an idiot for stating the truth ? Lmao wow

He is a Di*k because first they say we are tanking and this goof comes and says we can't event tank right. F*ck him, and F ESPN. I just want our team to be a contender hopefully with a young franchise QB, how ever we find him. 

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27 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Good stuff.

I get the fascination with getting the “top guy”, but it’s not as if those guys always pan out and you can’t win a SB with guys taken outside of the top two or top five.

 

This literally has nothing to do with Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and BakerMayfieldlamarrjacksonfalkrudolph, so unless you're prepared to talk about how it is specifically better to take one of those guys ahead of Darnold and Rosen, you're just giving a history lesson.

You are saying, quite literally, "Baker Mayfield is just as good or better than Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold because Aaron Rodgers was picked at 24 and Ben Roethlisberger was picked at 11. I am also comfortable waiting until the 3rd round to take a QB because that's where Russell Wilson went."

or you are saying:

"Welp, anything can happen, I don't have a specific idea what that is, but I'm sure it's going to be great."

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19 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

some fans enjoy the draft more than actual games, I will never understand it.

Spot on. 

I blame the whole "Fantasy Football" thing for two things:

1. Making once-dedicated "Team fans" into more generic "NFL fans".  Guys who care as much about how the QB of the Lions do as they do how the QB of the Jets do because somethign something fantasy team points.

2. Making fans into obsessive draft-heads.  To be fair, fantasy is only part of the blame here, the other is the massive over-commercialization of amateur (i.e. college) sports.   What was supposed to be something kids do as part of becoming adults as a side activity to their education has become a massive industry of exploitation and commercialism.  Because the NFL is too cheap to have it's own minor league system, they get to milk the college players for talent the same way schools milk them for money.

Add the two above issues to a desperate fanbase, and there you go.  The Draft > The Season if the season appears to be anything less than a Super Bowl.

It's why every jets forum I've been on has banished the overt draft-heads to a draft forum, because otherwise they will spam the main forum everywhere they can, making every thread a draft thread. 

Even in week 1.

Frankly, because Max is so hands off, there are alot of folks who get away with draft threads on the main forum that really belong (especially at this stage of the season) in the draft forum.  The Draft obsessives have it pretty good here at JN.

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9 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This literally has nothing to do with Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and BakerMayfieldlamarrjacksonfalkrudolph, so unless you're prepared to talk about how it is specifically better to take one of those guys ahead of Darnold and Rosen, you're just giving a history lesson.

You are saying, quite literally, Baker Mayfield is just as good or better than Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold because Aaron Rodgers was picked at 24 and Ben Roethlisberger was picked at 11.

Actually, no, people are not literally saying Mayfield is better then Rosen.  What people who understand how difficult evaluating QBs is are saying is that there is no guarantee whatsoever that Rosen will be better then mayfield and therefore there is no guarantee whatsoever that having the first or second pick will result in picking a better player then having the 6th or 10th pick and statistical history backs that up.

If the tankers want to say that going 0-16 would allow us to control our "draft pick destiny" moreso then picking 6-10 that fact is indisputable.  But to sit here and argue that the team should lose on purpose to take Josh Rosen, who could easily wind up being a worse NFL player then Mayfield or Luke Falk, just doesnt make sense and that is backed up by historical facts

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15 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This literally has nothing to do with Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and BakerMayfieldlamarrjacksonfalkrudolph, so unless you're prepared to talk about how it is specifically better to take one of those guys ahead of Darnold and Rosen, you're just giving a history lesson.

You are saying, quite literally, Baker Mayfield is just as good or better than Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold because Aaron Rodgers was picked at 24 and Ben Roethlisberger was picked at 11.

A valid point. 

Each class of prospective QB's should be evaluated on their own merit, not based on what different people in different classes on different teams did years ago.

With that said, I hope you're consistent here:  For example, when a posters says "we should play Petty/Hack more, after all, Manning was 3-13 in HIS first season!".

Now, on the issue of who we pick:

We will not have the #1 or #2 picks.  Math all but eliminates that as a possibility now.  Thus Darnold and Rosen may/are out of our ability to pick. 

Logic would indicate we fans should be watching, and evaluating, the other prospects we WILL have a chance to draft.  Players like Mayfield, Falk, etc.

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Just now, Warfish said:

A valid point. 

Each class of prospective QB's should be evaluated on their own merit, not based on what different people in different classes on different teams did years ago.

With that said, I hope you're consistent here:  For example, when a posters says "we should play Petty/Hack more, after all, Manning was 3-13 in HIS first season!".

Now, on the issue of who we pick:

We will not have the #1 or #2 picks.  Thus Darnold and Rosen may/are out of our ability to pick. 

Logic would indicate we fans should be watching, and evaluating, the other prospects we WILL have a chance to draft.  Players like Mayfield, Falk, etc.

I definitely will be paying more attention to them and, if we draft one of them will be optimistic and enthusiastic about the good parts of their games and hope they develop. As Jet fans, all we ever seem to have is optimism and disappointment. Maybe this time we don't get the latter.

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3 minutes ago, KRL said:

What's sad about these threads is the majority of people talking about the QB's in the
draft have never seen them.  All they're doing is repeating what they heard about the
QB's from the local media (who also have never seen them).  So it's really the blind
leading the blind, anyone who has truly watched college football knows that there are
multiple first round QB's this year.  It's up to the front office to pick the right
one

This is true. But if you had to lay odds on which QB's would be the best ones with the surest chance of success, what would those look like? Can you live with a Baker Mayfield or a Luke Falk or Lamarr Jackson or a Mason Rudolph if you build a good enough team around them? I'm honestly asking because you are knowledgeable about these things and I respect your opinion.

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10 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Actually, no, people are not literally saying Mayfield is better then Rosen.  What people who understand how difficult evaluating QBs is are saying is that there is no guarantee whatsoever that Rosen will be better then mayfield and therefore there is no guarantee whatsoever that having the first or second pick will result in picking a better player then having the 6th or 10th pick and statistical history backs that up.

If the tankers want to say that going 0-16 would allow us to control our "draft pick destiny" moreso then picking 6-10 that fact is indisputable.  But to sit here and argue that the team should lose on purpose to take Josh Rosen, who could easily wind up being a worse NFL player then Mayfield or Luke Falk, just doesnt make sense and that is backed up by historical facts

When you say that Aaron Rodgers is awesome and he was picked at 24, you are inherently arguing that it's okay to pick a QB at 24 because number one picks don't always pan out. You are using it as an analogy for this draft, because that is the one that is being discussed, here. So yes, if you are going to use that as an argument, you must own the analogy you are making. This is not Football Draft Theory I class at The Learning Annex.

And again, no one is suggesting they lose on purpose. This team is bad enough to lose with their best effort. Or has the Cleveland Brown win caused some form of amnesia to this fact?

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