Jump to content
Gas2No99

Early projection of 2018 NFL draft order

Recommended Posts

Registered members do not see this ad. Click here to create your free account today.
Registered members do not see this ad. Click here to create your free account today.
4 hours ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Other teams like the Bills have more ammo. Won’t matter if Macc is still the GM. He won’t give up what’s necessary to get a real QB to the Jets. 

Is this because he royally screwed the pooch with Hack? At this point I think he is more likely if not desperate to not do that again. I think he is likely to do whatever it takes to get a Starting level QB. So he will either over pay with draft picks or a deal for a FA QB. Classic over compensation on the brink of outright desperation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

When you say that Aaron Rodgers is awesome and he was picked at 24, you are inherently arguing that it's okay to pick a QB at 24 because number one picks don't always pan out. You are using it as an analogy for this draft, because that is the one that is being discussed, here. So yes, if you are going to use that as an argument, you must own the analogy you are making. This is not Football Draft Theory I class at The Learning Annex.

And again, no one is suggesting they lose on purpose. This team is bad enough to lose with their best effort. Or has the Cleveland Brown win caused some form of amnesia to this fact?

I never mentioned Rogers.

My point is that there is simply no way to say that this team, with an OT, DE, WR, or RB picked at pick 10, with Luke Falk or Baker Mayfield picked in the second round is a worse team then if we picked Rosen #1.  Could he be Peyton Manning, absolutely and thats why scouts love him - could he be Jeff George, absolutely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, BCJet said:

I never mentioned Rogers.

My point is that there is simply no way to say that this team, with an OT, DE, WR, or RB picked at pick 10, with Luke Falk or Baker Mayfield picked in the second round is a worse team then if we picked Rosen #1.  Could he be Peyton Manning, absolutely and thats why scouts love him - could he be Jeff George, absolutely.

OT, DE, WR, RB never bust, I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Is this because he royally screwed the pooch with Hack? At this point I think he is more likely if not desperate to not do that again. I think he is likely to do whatever it takes to get a Starting level QB. So he will either over pay with draft picks or a deal for a FA QB. Classic over compensation on the brink of outright desperation. 

I think it’s a little of him holding out hope for his 2nd rounder, but we’ve also seen in past drafts in the early rounds that he isn’t willing to go up and get the player he wants. I really don’t think he should be making the decision either way. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

He is a Di*k because first they say we are tanking and this goof comes and says we can't event tank right. F*ck him, and F ESPN. I just want our team to be a contender hopefully with a young franchise QB, how ever we find him. 

I mean we did **** up the tank job , so in theory he's right , if it's the way it's said then I understand you , he's making us seem like a joke and we still are , we haven't proven anything

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, AFJF said:

Unrelated to football, but I found out years ago that in Tombstone, Val Kilmer is not saying "I'll be your Huckleberry" as many of us had assumed, but he's saying "Huckle bearer", which is another word for pallbearer, or one who carries your coffin.  Yeah, blew my mind too.

I like Huckleberry better so when I watch it again for the 24th time he'll be saying I'll be your Huckleberry. Sounds more interesting  -  then bang 💥 right between the eyeballs. 

Next year we need to do this to Brady and Belicheat. Not this year. I want one of those top 3 QB's. We'll be your Huckleberry.....Bang 💥 Bang 💥 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, DMan77 said:

If you look at the current starters (or the presumed ones if some weren't injured) you'll see that 13 of them were picked 1,2,3 or 4... The remaining 19 starting QBs in the NFL were taken AFTER the top 5... 

Not all QBs and not all situations are created equal. These numbers aren't a perfect representation...

But this idea that you can only land a starting caliber QB if you're in the top 5 just doesn't match the numbers... I understanding wanting that top pick because you get to choose... But this idea that picking out of the top 4 or 5 is some kind of a death sentence just isn't right. Plenty of teams, now and in the past, have picked after the top 5 and come away with starter... 

That's the best (but of course not only) road to success in my mind... Not tanking and getting a 1st pick... It's having a young core and foundation in place because you had a few good drafts and solid roster moves; and then hitting a QB somewhere along the line. Those are the teams that succeed the quickest.

Team Round Pick Name
Bucs 1 1 Winston
Cards 1 1 Palmer
Chiefs 1 1 Smith
Colts 1 1 Luck
Giants 1 1 Manning
Lions 1 1 Stanford
Panthers 1 1 Newton
Rams 1 1 Goff
Vikings (2) 1 1 Bradford
Eagles 1 2 Wentz
Titans 1 2 Mariota
Falcons 1 3 Ryan
Jags 1 3 Bortles
Chargers 1 4 Rivers
Dolphins (2) 1 9 Tannehill 
Dolphins 1 11 Cutler
Steelers 1 11 Roethlisberger 
Texans 1 12 Watson
Ravens 1 18 Flacco
Packers 1 24 Rodgers
Vikings 1 32 Bridgewater
Saints 2 32 Brees
Bengals 2 35 Dalton
Raiders 2 36 Carr
Browns 2 52 Kizer
Bears 3 73 Glennon
Seahwaks 3 75 Wilson
Jets 3 81 McCown
Redskins 4 102 Cousins
Cowboys 4 135 Prescott
Bills 6 180 Taylor
Pats 6 199 Brady
Bronocs 7 250 Siemian
49ers NA NA Hoyer
       

LOL, this thread is hilarious. We have some real statisticians on this board for sure. Even this post, you realize that your "evidence" completely contradicts your own point right? You just showed how you can get 13 starting QB's out of 4 picks while the other 19 were found in the other 220 picks. 

The fact that you are comparing 4 to 220 and the outcome is as close as it is proves the point that it is MUCH easier to find a starting QB within the top 4 picks than it is in the other 220. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Maddog45 said:

I mean we did **** up the tank job , so in theory he's right , if it's the way it's said then I understand you , he's making us seem like a joke and we still are , we haven't proven anything

Exactly, we were a joke because the media parasites thought we were tanking and now we don't have a losing record so they say we can't tank right. Respectable journalism at its finest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I've forgotten Josh Allen. He's super talented, physically is all I really know about him.

He is Jay Cutler"esque" all the physical tools but when you watch him he just seems to either not care or plays a little timid. He scares the hell out of me. Do not want as a JETS QB, which means thats who we will draft.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This is true. But if you had to lay odds on which QB's would be the best ones with the surest chance of success, what would those look like? Can you live with a Baker Mayfield or a Luke Falk or Lamarr Jackson or a Mason Rudolph if you build a good enough team around them? I'm honestly asking because you are knowledgeable about these things and I respect your opinion.

Two QB's that have really caught my eye are Luke Falk and Baker Mayfield.  Here's why:

- With the offense Morton has shown Falk would fit because he has a fast release, he's
extremely accurate and enough arm strength to keep defenses honest.  Even though he's
in a gimmick offense he's been given enough reponsibility to adjust the play according
to the defense.  And finally his biggest "flaw" is he stays in the pocket too long because
he goes through his progressions looking for receivers (which most gimmick offense OB's
don't do)

- The biggest knock on Mayfield would be his height but with Morton coming from NO (Brees)
he shouldn't have a bias against him. Other than that Mayfield reminds me of Russell Wilson
with his mobility in and out of the pocket, arm strength, accuracy and "it" factor.  He
seems to have the ability to lift his team which was particularly on display when they
went into Ohio St. and beat them.  His performance also covers up for a defense that isn't
very good     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Is this because he royally screwed the pooch with Hack? At this point I think he is more likely if not desperate to not do that again. I think he is likely to do whatever it takes to get a Starting level QB. So he will either over pay with draft picks or a deal for a FA QB. Classic over compensation on the brink of outright desperation. 

The qb is too risky.  Mac will prefer a FA and continue to try and find another David Carr. 

27 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

I think it’s a little of him holding out hope for his 2nd rounder, but we’ve also seen in past drafts in the early rounds that he isn’t willing to go up and get the player he wants. I really don’t think he should be making the decision either way. 

Macc is too much about roster depth.  I don't see them giving up ok picks, except maybe for Darnold. 

14 minutes ago, Stark said:

He is Jay Cutler"esque" all the physical tools but when you watch him he just seems to either not care or plays a little timid. He scares the hell out of me. Do not want as a JETS QB, which means thats who we will draft.

The Jets are not playing an offense that fits Josh Allen.  DArnold and Mayfield are better fits.  WCO, move ball around.  Rosen could do anything, but he should scare people

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, varjet said:

The qb is too risky.  Mac will prefer a FA and continue to try and find another David Carr. 

Macc is too much about roster depth.  I don't see them giving up ok picks, except maybe for Darnold. 

The Jets are not playing an offense that fits Josh Allen.  DArnold and Mayfield are better fits.  WCO, move ball around.  Rosen could do anything, but he should scare people

I agree that Darnold and Mayfield are good fits for WC offense, and I also agree that Rosen could play in any system. Rosen doesn't really scare me at all, as long as his shoulder is not injured again this year he should be fine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

OT, DE, WR, RB never bust, I guess.

Whats your point exactly?

I clearly stated that you cant project that the first QB be better then one picked later.  Then added the fact that you get an additional player picked in the top 10.

Do other positions bust - again, yes.  Just as I said that if you argument is that picking higher allows us to control our own destiny, that is true.  

So what are you saying exactly, other then wishing that the team lost games on purpose which is no different then yelling at the sky when it rains

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Spot on. 

I blame the whole "Fantasy Football" thing for two things:

1. Making once-dedicated "Team fans" into more generic "NFL fans".  Guys who care as much about how the QB of the Lions do as they do how the QB of the Jets do because somethign something fantasy team points.

2. Making fans into obsessive draft-heads.  To be fair, fantasy is only part of the blame here, the other is the massive over-commercialization of amateur (i.e. college) sports.   What was supposed to be something kids do as part of becoming adults as a side activity to their education has become a massive industry of exploitation and commercialism.  Because the NFL is too cheap to have it's own minor league system, they get to milk the college players for talent the same way schools milk them for money.

Add the two above issues to a desperate fanbase, and there you go.  The Draft > The Season if the season appears to be anything less than a Super Bowl.

It's why every jets forum I've been on has banished the overt draft-heads to a draft forum, because otherwise they will spam the main forum everywhere they can, making every thread a draft thread. 

Even in week 1.

Frankly, because Max is so hands off, there are alot of folks who get away with draft threads on the main forum that really belong (especially at this stage of the season) in the draft forum.  The Draft obsessives have it pretty good here at JN.

Max, if true then please become more hands on :)  For Pete sake, I just placed one poster on iggy who has been spamming every thread I read with draft angst.  I think he might be a troll who is proud of his neg rep status.  We're 3-2, damn it.  I don't mind a draft reference or two but please PM the spammers off to the draft forum.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This is true. But if you had to lay odds on which QB's would be the best ones with the surest chance of success, what would those look like? Can you live with a Baker Mayfield or a Luke Falk or Lamarr Jackson or a Mason Rudolph if you build a good enough team around them? I'm honestly asking because you are knowledgeable about these things and I respect your opinion.

Why ask this question?  Seriously!  Unless you're a gambling addict and totally out of control you don't bet w/o knowing what you're doing.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

LOL, this thread is hilarious. We have some real statisticians on this board for sure. Even this post, you realize that your "evidence" completely contradicts your own point right? You just showed how you can get 13 starting QB's out of 4 picks while the other 19 were found in the other 220 picks. 

The fact that you are comparing 4 to 220 and the outcome is as close as it is proves the point that it is MUCH easier to find a starting QB within the top 4 picks than it is in the other 220. 

Aw, you're cute.

Did you actually read my post? It's okay, I understand reading is hard for some.

My main point was this: But this idea that you can only land a starting caliber QB if you're in the top 5 just doesn't match the numbers..

I think if you go back and read you'll see my point was that it's very possible to find a QB after. No where did I say you had the SAME or better odds. 

My point, is that not having a top 4 is not the death sentence people want you to think it is. All this "Sigh, same old Jets for drafting well and winning games and not getting that 1st pick!" is silly. 

OF COURSE if you pick higher you should get the more talented guys. But it's entirely possible to find winners AFTER that. And most teams have. That's all it shows.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, BigO said:

I like Huckleberry better so when I watch it again for the 24th time he'll be saying I'll be your Huckleberry. Sounds more interesting  -  then bang 💥 right between the eyeballs. 

Next year we need to do this to Brady and Belicheat. Not this year. I want one of those top 3 QB's. We'll be your Huckleberry.....Bang 💥 Bang 💥 

Script says Huckleberry and that term is accurate for that usage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Whats your point exactly?

I clearly stated that you cant project that the first QB be better then one picked later.  Then added the fact that you get an additional player picked in the top 10.

Do other positions bust - again, yes.  Just as I said that if you argument is that picking higher allows us to control our own destiny, that is true.  

So what are you saying exactly, other then wishing that the team lost games on purpose which is no different then yelling at the sky when it rains

You can repeat the same thing over and over again and it still doesn't become true. It only shows your lack of a real argument. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw this from Kiper a minute ago.

This 2018 quarterback class for the NFL draft could be special. I have five QBs in my top 25 overall, and -- it's early -- but I could see six going in the first round next April. The caveat there is that a few are underclassmen and could return to school. My top three right now: USC's Sam Darnold, UCLA's Josh Rosen and Wyoming's Josh Allen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

If that's how it worked out, I actually don't think the Jets would be in such bad position. Aside from the Browns, they could trade up with just about anybody in front of them if they really wanted to move. From the Niners to the Giants, I think they'd all be interested in getting more picks to build their roster. 

 

Yea but I think the Bills could if they wanted to, trade up into the top 5 - I believe they've got a lot of extra picks to play with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, peebag said:

Yea but I think the Bills could if they wanted to, trade up into the top 5 - I believe they've got a lot of extra picks to play with.

The Jets pick at six or seven will blow away a lot of what the Bills can offer since their 1 looks like it’ll be mid-20’s.

Also, If Tyrod keeps playing like this, do they still go QB?

Edited by AFJF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, AFJF said:

The Jets pick at six or seven will blow away a lot of what the Bills can offer since their 1 looks like it’ll be mid-20’s.

Also, If Tyrod keeps playing like this, do they still go QB?

Jill's are ending up in the top 10 , watch . Tyrod is trash. They're gonna have ammo for a trade up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Maddog45 said:

Jill's are ending up in the top 10 , watch . Tyrod is trash. They're gonna have ammo for a trade up

Cool...gimme a buzz on draft day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BCJet said:

Dont forget Big Ben - 3rd Qb taken in a "Great QB Draft" at pick 11

Its actually depressing coming on this board and seeing actual fans who honestly believe its possible to lose games on purpose.  Could Mac force Bowles to start Hackenberg, sure - and that would like appease 2% of the fans. While doing the following:

1.  Putting hackenberg and the others at risk to be injured if he isnt prepared with protections, etc.

2.  Ensure that the rest of the league, who Mac may need to have hire him at some point, thinks he is a complete idiot

3.  Stunt the development of the young players who have spent the last 15-20 years as winners

4.  Still not ensure the top pick

You guys who think the players can lose on purpose, arent the ones who are essentially betting their career, earnings potential, family etc on this.  None of Mac, Bowles, Hugh Jackson, Kyle Shanahan, or any of the other front office or HCs in the league are trying to lose games.

Who the hell wants or thinks the players or coaches will lose on purpose? Anyone with a brain knows the players and coaches need play to win now, for their own careers and don't give a sh*te about draft picks. I think us fans that wanted to go 1-15 rather than a "hard fought and gritty" 5-11 wanted no McCown, No Kerley, no vet QB so Petty or Hack has to start. No Kearse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

You can repeat the same thing over and over again and it still doesn't become true. It only shows your lack of a real argument. 

As I asked - what point are you trying to make? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, AFJF said:

Cool....give up whatever you have to give to get in the top three and grab a QB.

A few still viewed as top talents by NFL evaluators according to this today from Albert Breer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will be taking Quenton Nelson at 6.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Brady's a catcher said:

Who the hell wants or thinks the players or coaches will lose on purpose? Anyone with a brain knows the players and coaches need play to win now, for their own careers and don't give a sh*te about draft picks. I think us fans that wanted to go 1-15 rather than a "hard fought and gritty" 5-11 wanted no McCown, No Kerley, no vet QB so Petty or Hack has to start. No Kearse.

No kerley is one thing.  But playing Hack literally puts the players at risk.  Did you see his ability to manage blocking assignments against the Giants?  How could Bowles or Mac in good conscience put him out there?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×