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Early projection of 2018 NFL draft order

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Early projection of 2018 NFL draft order

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The Jets' hot start has done irreparable harm to their chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick. But hey, a shot at a top-five pick isn't so bad.

Good morning! It's never too early, I tell you, to look ahead to the NFL draft. Even with the embers of Week 5 still burning, we already have a fascinating draft angle to beat you over the head with:

The New York Jets can't even tank right!

That's right. If the Jets' misfit roster assembly was intended to ensure the No. 1 overall pick in 2018, it already has failed. A surprising 3-2 start has left them a (slightly) better chance of making the playoffs than sitting atop of the final draft order.

How do we know that? As longtime readers know, we use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project each team's most likely draft spot using the best information we have at the moment.

To be clear, what follows is not what the draft order would look like if the season had just ended. Instead, it is a prediction based on the strength of each team's remaining schedule as well other data inputs that encapsulate the team's performance to date. (Here is a fuller explanation.) We'll update this list periodically over the course of the season, one that will carry special interest given the stellar class of quarterbacks that could be available.


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1. Cleveland Browns

Record: 0-5
FPI odds of top pick: 49.0 percent
FPI odds of top-five pick: 96.3 percent

Comment: If any team's process (and results) suggest tanking, it's the Browns'. They are now 1-20 since owner Jimmy Haslam assembled an unconventional front office and endorsed analytics-based roster

building. Trading down and emphasizing draft pick volume is smart strategy, and it has helped the Browns add talent. But they have outsmarted themselves by leaving the quarterback position unattended. If they take one near the top of the 2018 draft, perhaps we'll look back in a different light. They will have acquired the talent around the quarterback first before dropping in the passer, rather than the other way around. For now, the benching of rookie DeShone Kizer is a reminder that the Browns don't have a starting-caliber quarterback on their roster -- a primary reason they are at the top of this list.

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2. San Francisco 49ers

Record: 0-5
FPI odds of top pick: 32.2 percent
FPI odds of top-five pick: 91.7 percent

Comment: On the bright side, the 49ers have been one of the most competitive 0-5 teams in NFL history. They've lost four consecutive games by three or fewer points, one of only two teams to do so in the Super Bowl era. But their offense isn't inspiring much confidence after scoring 15 or fewer points in three of five games. Per FPI, the 49ers can expect the third-lowest expected points added via their offense this season. In other words, the close losses aren't inspiring much confidence. If it plays out that way, general manager John Lynch will have a chance to snag a quarterback after trading out of the spot used by the Bears to select Mitchell Trubisky.

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3. Chicago Bears

Record: 1-4
FPI odds of top pick: 9.3 percent
FPI odds of top-five pick: 73.1 percent

Comment: The Bears almost certainly won't be in the market for a quarterback at the top of the 2018 draft. (I say "almost" because they did trade up to draft Trubisky a couple months after guaranteeing Mike Glennon $18.5 million. So, anything's possible.) That could make the Bears' spot an early pivot point in the draft, allowing them to cash in and trade down with a team that needs a quarterback.

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4. Indianapolis Colts

Record: 2-3
FPI odds of top pick: 3.3 percent
FPI odds of top-five pick: 62.9 percent

Comment: Kind of high for a 2-3 team? Let's not forget that the Colts' two victories are against the Browns and 49ers, who are both 0-5. Although quarterback Andrew Luck is expected back at some point, for now FPI doesn't consider the Colts a favorite for any of their remaining games. The closest is a Week 12 home game against the Tennessee Titans, whom FPI gives a 57 percent chance of winning. New general manager Chris Ballard might well have a high pick, quite possibly in the top five, to use next spring.

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5. New York Giants

Record: 0-5
FPI odds of top pick: 3.6 percent
FPI odds of top-five pick: 47.6 percent

Comment: The Giants are winless and have lost receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (broken ankle) for the season. Shouldn't they have better chances here than, say, the Colts? FPI still has some respect for their defense and favors the Giants to win five more of their remaining 11 games. Not everyone thought the Giants could improve on their 11-5 record from last season. But still, a tumble to 5-11 record and a top-five pick is beyond the endgame most of us would have expected.

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The Jets' hot start has done irreparable harm to their chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick. But hey, a shot at a top-five pick isn't so bad. Joe Robbins/Getty Images

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6. New York Jets

Record: 3-2
FPI odds of top-five pick: 33.9 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 80.2 percent

Comment: FPI gives the Jets a 0.3 percent chance to get the top pick and a 0.4 percent chance to make the playoffs. At the moment, they don't even have a 50 percent chance to land in the top five, a distressing position for anyone hoping they can get in on the quarterback draft bonanza. Instead, the Jets might well be headed into franchise purgatory: Not good enough to compete for the playoffs but not bad enough to be in play for a top-level draft pick. The Jets, man. The Jets.

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7. Miami Dolphins

Record: 2-2
FPI odds of top-five pick: 17.5 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 60.8 percent

Comment: The Dolphins have endured one of those bizarre NFL starts that even good teams can struggle to recover from. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill's training camp knee injury began a chain of events that included the displacement of the franchise by Hurricane Irma, no home games until Oct. 8 and the resignation of offensive line coach Chris Foerster after a disturbing video surfaced. FPI is giving the Dolphins a 4.9 percent chance to make the playoffs. Their schedule still includes two dates with the New England Patriots as well as games against the Kansas City ChiefsCarolina PanthersDenver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons. Those teams are a combined 15-3.

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8. Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 1-4
FPI odds of top-five pick: 16.9 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 57.6 percent

Comment: Oh, the poor Chargers. They have stumbled to a slow start amid national coverage of their apparently nonexistent fan base in Los Angeles. Their top 2017 draft picks, receiver Mike Williams and guard Forrest Lamp, are injured. And, well, Philip Rivers isn't getting any younger. At 35, Rivers ranks No. 26 in the NFL in Total QBR (39.6). They look like a team that will be a big part of this 2018 draft conversation.

 

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9. Arizona Cardinals

Record: 2-3
FPI odds of top-five pick: 19.0 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 59.3 percent

Comment: You wonder if the Cardinals are careening toward a franchise overhaul. The competitive window of this team, fronted by quarterback Carson Palmer (37), might have closed. FPI is giving them a 6.9 percent chance to make the playoffs in a division that includes the Seattle Seahawks and the newly competitive Los Angeles Rams.

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10. Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 2-3
FPI odds of top-five pick: 8.2 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 39.6 percent

Comment: This position doesn't mean too much for the Bengals at this point in the season. They have won two consecutive games after an 0-3 start, and FPI doesn't see too much difference in their chance to draft in the top 10 than those of the Oakland Raiders, Rams or even the Dallas Cowboys. But FPI still gives them a better chance to earn that draft position than make the playoffs (17.5 percent).

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Jets, in a manner only they can do, are giving new meaning to the term Pick 6: Williams, Adams, . . . . Rosen?

We've had "The Best player in the Draft" fall to us TWICE @ 6, so WHICH QB drops to 6?

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2 minutes ago, Maddog45 said:

Lmaooo what an article , just as if I wrote it , smart guy seeing thru the bullsh*t

IT's NOT FAKE NEWS, it was written by an idiot at ESPN.

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7 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

Jets, in a manner only they can do, are giving new meaning to the term Pick 6: Williams, Adams, . . . . Rosen?

We've had "The Best player in the Draft" fall to us TWICE @ 6, so WHICH QB drops to 6?

Rosen to 6 is like trump showing his tax returns AINT HAPPENING , drop the pipe lmao

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5 minutes ago, Maddog45 said:

Rosen to 6 is like trump showing his tax returns AINT HAPPENING , drop the pipe lmao

Same was said, at the time, regarding Leo & Adams.

Never had the pipe, it's been logged up between your colon & mouth the entire time. B)

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If that's how it worked out, I actually don't think the Jets would be in such bad position. Aside from the Browns, they could trade up with just about anybody in front of them if they really wanted to move. From the Niners to the Giants, I think they'd all be interested in getting more picks to build their roster. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

Jets, in a manner only they can do, are giving new meaning to the term Pick 6: Williams, Adams, . . . . Rosen?

We've had "The Best player in the Draft" fall to us TWICE @ 6, so WHICH QB drops to 6?

I like the way this guy thinks!!!!!

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4 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

Same was said, at the time, regarding Leo & Adams.

Never had the pipe, it's been logged up between your colon & mouth the entire time. B)

Leo and Adams aren't QBs , like I said it ain't happening . Period

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5 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

I like the way this guy thinks!!!!!

We HATE each other, remember? You had me on your Ignore list.

We are MORTAL INTERNET NEMISI! :P

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20 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

Jets, in a manner only they can do, are giving new meaning to the term Pick 6: Williams, Adams, . . . . Rosen?

We've had "The Best player in the Draft" fall to us TWICE @ 6, so WHICH QB drops to 6?

Having the Giants sitting in front of the Jets would give me anxiety the entire time until they're on the clock. Imagine the blow of them taking the 2nd best QB right before the Jets. Wouldn't be able to live with the aftermath.

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13 minutes ago, Maddog45 said:

Rosen to 6 is like trump showing his tax returns AINT HAPPENING , drop the pipe lmao

 

6 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

Same was said, at the time, regarding Leo & Adams.

Never had the pipe, it's been logged up between your colon & mouth the entire time. B)

 

1 minute ago, Maddog45 said:

Leo and Adams aren't QBs , like I said it ain't happening . Period

 

So there IS NO DENIAL of the pipe's purported location?

Good enough for me, GOOD NIGHT! :lol:

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1 minute ago, MDL_JET said:

Having the Giants sitting in front of the Jets would give me anxiety the entire time until they're on the clock. Imagine the blow of them taking the 2nd best QB right before the Jets. Wouldn't be able to live with the aftermath.

"But hey, we beat Cleveland!  So there's that!"

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1 minute ago, Gas2No99 said:

 

 

 

So there IS NO DENIAL of the pipe's purported location?

Good enough for me, GOOD NIGHT! :lol:

I don't need to deny your homo crap over the Internet , we are not kids , I know my preferences is women , now you on the other hand thinking about pipes in another mans mouth , left field , you look like you're representing sus gang hard in these streets.

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19 minutes ago, Maddog45 said:

I don't need to deny your homo crap over the Internet , we are not kids , I know my preferences is women , now you on the other hand thinking about pipes in another mans mouth , left field , you look like you're representing sus gang hard in these streets.

Just keep digging deeper, please. You're SOOOO close to having everyone turn on you and then banish you. Keep it up! :)

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1 minute ago, Gas2No99 said:

Just keep digging deeper, please. You're SOOOO close to having everyone turn on you and then banish you. Keep to up! :)

Yea , people don't like me because I keep sh*t 100 , old folks don't like the young crowd here , I'm supposed to follow the crowd of mediocrity like a sheep , no way

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1 minute ago, Maddog45 said:

Yea , people don't like me because I keep sh*t 100 , old folks don't like the young crowd here , I'm supposed to follow the crowd of mediocrity like a sheep , no way

You are a putrid, insolent, irrational tool. 

If you're the "Young Crowd," then SOCIETY, let alone the Jets, are F*cked.

If I get banned for calling you out and merely echoing the sentiment of other posters here regarding your VILE existence, then so be it. 

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Cool....give up whatever you have to give to get in the top three and grab a QB.

A few still viewed as top talents by NFL evaluators according to this today from Albert Breer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by AFJF

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Picking 15th?  He'll be your huckleberry.

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Unrelated to football, but I found out years ago that in Tombstone, Val Kilmer is not saying "I'll be your Huckleberry" as many of us had assumed, but he's saying "Huckle bearer", which is another word for pallbearer, or one who carries your coffin.  Yeah, blew my mind too.

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1 hour ago, Maddog45 said:

Rosen to 6 is like trump showing his tax returns AINT HAPPENING , drop the pipe lmao

Aaron Rodgers says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to 24th...

Drew Brees says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to the 2nd round

OH WAIT!  Brett Favre did too....

 

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1 minute ago, CanadaSteve said:

Aaron Rodgers says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to 24th...

Drew Brees says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to the 2nd round

OH WAIT!  So did Brett Favre too....

 

If only we could hit the lotto like that huh wouldn't it be great , knowing the jets ..... SAME OL JETS

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2 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Aaron Rodgers says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to 24th...

Drew Brees says hi.

OH WAIT!  He dropped to the 2nd round

OH WAIT!  So did Brett Favre too....

 

But we don't want anyone like that.  Jets need somebody like Derek Carr or Big Ben or Dak or Russell Wilson, and they all went in the first two picks, right?

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Just now, AFJF said:

But we don't want anyone like that.  Jets need somebody like Derek Carr or Big Ben or Dak or Russell Wilson, and they all went in the first two picks, right?

True....I never thought of it that way.

OH WAIT!

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