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Sperm Edwards

If we did end up with the #1 pick

What would you do?  

43 members have voted

  1. 1. What would you do?

    • No trading up, because there are plenty of QBs in this class. But DO take a QB at #1 if we end up with that pick, and thereby turn down RGIII-trade type compensation.
      24
    • "Don't trade up" means no QB prospect is worth all that. If we get an RGIII-trade type of offer, definitely trade down to ~#6-10-ish.
      19


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I've read enough opinions (not just on JN) that say it's not worth the huge cost to move up to #1, especially in a QB class like this.

If you are strongly against trading up from ~picks #6-12 up to #1 do you also feel it's a no-brainer to trade down to gain the Rams' end of the RGIII deal? Something like trading from #1 down to ~#6-12 overall in 2018, and pick up a 2nd rounder ~#40-45 overall in 2018, plus more 1st round picks in 2019 and 2020?

We'd still (presumably) get a QB worthy of a top 10ish overall pick, plus we'd have upcoming:

  • three 2nd round picks in 2018 (more than enough to also use a 2nd rd pick on a QB in 2018 and not sweat it)
  • two 1st round picks in 2019
  • two 1st round picks in 2020

My own stance has been that, in taking a QB at #1 (a consensus #1 overall talent QB prospect; not reaching two picks even higher for Blake Bortles), you're surrendering all that compensation whether you naturally ended up at #1 overall or traded up to get there. But one is far more controversial than the other.

Just curious what others think.

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I said no with the assumption that they have one guy graded head and shoulders above the others.

If three guys have similar grades and a team at three wants to move up...sure.

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I'm kind of confused by your wording...

Are you saying, stay put at #1 and take QB vs. taking a trade down?

I'd take the trade down because Im really only slightly interested in one prospect, Rosen.  And that dude is a total wild card. 

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Darnold and Rosen are way better than the rest of qb field that it warrants a trade up from any spot, if you want the highest chance in hitting a franchise qb its them , **** the hackenburg route and drafting 3-6 best ranked qb , why gamble with the extreme odds , this idiot Mac did it once better not do it again and anyone who wants to gamble with the odds of drafting a qb other than those 2 are on the same boat as Macc. It doesn't matter what other teams have done and their luck, that's something the jets never had . Just get the top pick and draft either one , pay whatever price, could've been FREE if they tanked right or cheaper if they lose every game from here on out

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Obviously at the end of the day it comes down to a few factors -- namely how much better do you believe the #1 guy is than the rest and what spot in the first round are we moving down to (and will another guy we're comfortable with be there.)

That said, in a vacuum my instinct is to just take the QB you think is the best. For me that's Darnold.

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26 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I've read enough opinions (not just on JN) that say it's not worth the huge cost to move up to #1, especially in a QB class like this.

If you are strongly against trading up from ~picks #6-12 up to #1 do you also feel it's a no-brainer to trade down to gain the Rams' end of the RGIII deal? Something like trading from #1 down to ~#6-12 overall in 2018, and pick up a 2nd rounder ~#40-45 overall in 2018, plus more 1st round picks in 2019 and 2020?

We'd still (presumably) get a QB worthy of a top 10ish overall pick, plus we'd have upcoming:

  • three 2nd round picks in 2018 (more than enough to also use a 2nd rd pick on a QB in 2018 and not sweat it)
  • two 1st round picks in 2019
  • two 1st round picks in 2020

My own stance has been that, in taking a QB at #1 (a consensus #1 overall talent QB prospect; not reaching two picks even higher for Blake Bortles), you're surrendering all that compensation whether you naturally ended up at #1 overall or traded up to get there. But one is far more controversial than the other.

Just curious what others think.

The only real difference is a matter of perception.  It's the same concept that goes along with a player being kept around another year based on the cap hit of him being cut this year vs next year, when we know the reality is that it actually costs the team more money to keep him around.

If a team stays at the #1 pick, they will only be evaluated by the vast majority of people based on the player they take, nothing more.  There would be little-to-no news in the future related to the trade down they could have made.  If the pick works out, no one will care what they turned down, if the pick is a failure, that's what everyone will truly be judging.  Sure, they turned down having more by not making a trade, but given that those are things that they never had, it quickly becomes forgotten by most, and there's little to point to other than reported rumors.

On the flip side, if a trade actually happens, there will be endless scrutiny of every single degree of cost that came along with acquiring that pick.  Even if the pick turns out to be pretty good, but not great, and the picks they gave up returned comparable talent, it would quickly make the list of the GMs mistakes the moment things take a negative turn.  So again, much more a matter of perception than reality.

As far as my opinion goes?  It would be heavily dependent on the circumstances come the time of the draft.  If you have a player who the team is convinced stands out above and beyond all of the others by a healthy margin, then you keep the #1 pick or pay the price to move up for it.  If it's a lot closer race, then you certainly don't trade up, and the willingness to trade down would simply be dependent on getting a good enough offer.

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Depends entirely on the evaluation of the players.  If there are 3 QBs all with equal value to your team, you can trade down to 2 or 3 if one of those teams feels they have to have their guy.  If you feel Rudolph, Rosen and Mayfield are all a 3-sided coin flip, then by all means go for it and trade down a slot or two.  

But for me, based on what I have seen so far, I like Rosen enough to take him and not look back unless the bounty was utterly ridiculous.  Someone offers me something like an extra 1st and 2nd this year, and 1st next year to move down a slot or two, I would consider it but even then...

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So lets Hypothetical:

Sam Darnold, QB, USC (Pick #1/#1)

vs.

Baker Mayfield, QB (#12-15, 2018 Draft)
Mitch Hyatt, OT (#40-45, 2018 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade WR or RB, (#12-15, 2019 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade O-Lineman, (#12-15, 2020 Draft)

Which would you choose?

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7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So lets Hypothetical:

Sam Darnold, QB, USC (Pick #1/#1)

vs.

Baker Mayfield, QB (#12-15, 2018 Draft)
Mitch Hyatt, OT (#40-45, 2018 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade WR or RB, (#12-15, 2019 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade O-Lineman, (#12-15, 2020 Draft)

Which would you choose?

Most of this board is of the trade down mentality.  OTOH, when you see a QB you love you pounce.  I am not a Mayfield fan and I know almost nothing about Darnold I haven't read on here, but if you are talking about what I would consider a can't miss QB - say Elway vs the rest of the 1983 draft?  I do that - and I would have easily been considered correct in at least 3 out of the 5 choices. 

That is what defines the GM.  You find the guy you want and grab him.  It is also why many of us have soured on Maccagnan - he seemed to grab onto Hackenberg and that seems insane and seemed that way from the start.

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I've read enough opinions (not just on JN) that say it's not worth the huge cost to move up to #1, especially in a QB class like this.

If you are strongly against trading up from ~picks #6-12 up to #1 do you also feel it's a no-brainer to trade down to gain the Rams' end of the RGIII deal? Something like trading from #1 down to ~#6-12 overall in 2018, and pick up a 2nd rounder ~#40-45 overall in 2018, plus more 1st round picks in 2019 and 2020?

We'd still (presumably) get a QB worthy of a top 10ish overall pick, plus we'd have upcoming:

  • three 2nd round picks in 2018 (more than enough to also use a 2nd rd pick on a QB in 2018 and not sweat it)
  • two 1st round picks in 2019
  • two 1st round picks in 2020

My own stance has been that, in taking a QB at #1 (a consensus #1 overall talent QB prospect; not reaching two picks even higher for Blake Bortles), you're surrendering all that compensation whether you naturally ended up at #1 overall or traded up to get there. But one is far more controversial than the other.

Just curious what others think.

I would be inclined to take the compensation and roll the dice at 10-12.  Unless you are ABSOLUTELY sure that the guy you take with the first overall pick is a can't bust talent, like an Andrew Luck or a Peyton Manning.  Right now, I would not call any of the QB's in this draft class that, but there is a lot of potential in a lot of players.

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13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So lets Hypothetical:

Sam Darnold, QB, USC (Pick #1/#1)

vs.

Baker Mayfield, QB (#12-15, 2018 Draft)
Mitch Hyatt, OT (#40-45, 2018 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade WR or RB, (#12-15, 2019 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade O-Lineman, (#12-15, 2020 Draft)

Which would you choose?

Darnold. You could buy linemen like how oak did and win . You could buy wrs and rbs could be found late rounds . A LT is different though , game changing LT goes top 10. Darnold is the smart choice. 

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16 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So lets Hypothetical:

Sam Darnold, QB, USC (Pick #1/#1)

vs.

Baker Mayfield, QB (#12-15, 2018 Draft)
Mitch Hyatt, OT (#40-45, 2018 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade WR or RB, (#12-15, 2019 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade O-Lineman, (#12-15, 2020 Draft)

Which would you choose?

With that option, I would most definitely take option B

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If you think you are looking at a special QB you go get him. Barring a Ricky Williams, herschel walker mega deal, I don't mind the premium price tag because presumably the Jets will try to build an offense to surround the kid in free agency. 

The key is winning on the QBs rookie deal. 

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

So lets Hypothetical:

Sam Darnold, QB, USC (Pick #1/#1)

vs.

Baker Mayfield, QB (#12-15, 2018 Draft)
Mitch Hyatt, OT (#40-45, 2018 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade WR or RB, (#12-15, 2019 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade O-Lineman, (#12-15, 2020 Draft)

Which would you choose?

I would draft Josh Rosen

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

So lets Hypothetical:

Sam Darnold, QB, USC (Pick #1/#1)

vs.

Baker Mayfield, QB (#12-15, 2018 Draft)
Mitch Hyatt, OT (#40-45, 2018 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade WR or RB, (#12-15, 2019 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade O-Lineman, (#12-15, 2020 Draft)

Which would you choose?

Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (Pick #1/#1).

But I guess to stick with your hypothetical and choose between Darnold and all of those other guys... Darnold.  

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I have zero confidence in Mike Maccagnan to accomplish anything that isn’t brain-dead obvious. While it would be cool to reap the extra picks and still end up with a viable QB prospect, I think it’s beyond the abilities of our GM to not run himself into a brick wall in that scenario.

100% CORRECT. Macc can't be trusted to pick the next franchise QB. Not based on his track record.

Darnold is a sophomore and playing like one. He can't handle the pressure now in Southern California. How is he going to handle it in the media capitol of the world? Especially when he will be looked upon as a savior of the franchise. The kid simply isn't ready for that type of hype and expectation. He needs at least this year and next to mature. He most likely will stay in school. It does make sense if you look at it objectively. If he stays in school and comes out for the 2019 draft he will be the best of a weak class and it will ensure his #1 status. Especially if he keeps up his up and down play. There is no doubting his talent but if the head ain't ready all the talent in the world will not be enough. If by some miracle the Jets had the #1 pick I take the trade scenario and stockpile picks. You could set yourself up for years and have multiple picks in the early rounds to do what you will with. I just don't trust Macc to make those picks or setup that scenario. It is beyond his skill set IMO and he will somehow manage to screw it up.

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11 minutes ago, JetFaninMI said:

100% CORRECT. Macc can't be trusted to pick the next franchise QB. Not based on his track record.

Darnold is a sophomore and playing like one. He can't handle the pressure now in Southern California. How is he going to handle it in the media capitol of the world? Especially when he will be looked upon as a savior of the franchise. The kid simply isn't ready for that type of hype and expectation. He needs at least this year and next to mature. He most likely will stay in school. It does make sense if you look at it objectively. If he stays in school and comes out for the 2019 draft he will be the best of a weak class and it will ensure his #1 status. Especially if he keeps up his up and down play. There is no doubting his talent but if the head ain't ready all the talent in the world will not be enough. If by some miracle the Jets had the #1 pick I take the trade scenario and stockpile picks. You could set yourself up for years and have multiple picks in the early rounds to do what you will with. I just don't trust Macc to make those picks or setup that scenario. It is beyond his skill set IMO and he will somehow manage to screw it up.

Should also be factored in that the Jets franchise doesn’t have the infrastructure to handle a QB that might need some development. They come here, never improve, and then fall off a cliff and we act like it’s some sort of hyper-coincidental bad luck that none of these guys pan out. IMO, we could have drafted Deshaun Watson and instead of tailoring the offense to his obvious skills, he’d be shoehorned into running the exact same offense that McCown is and he’d never see the field. Petty was an absolutely prolific collegiate passer and we had him basically running the Wing-T last year. Add to all this the fact that Bowles is always gonna find a reason to run the vet out there in an attempt to win every game 20-17, and young QBs are doomed to fail in this setting. If you think Jets fans are happy that the Jets are winning games right now, you should see how ecstatic the agents for Rosen and Darnold will be next May when we’re no longer able to pick their guy in the top-5

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21 minutes ago, JetFaninMI said:

100% CORRECT. Macc can't be trusted to pick the next franchise QB. Not based on his track record.

Darnold is a sophomore and playing like one. He can't handle the pressure now in Southern California. How is he going to handle it in the media capitol of the world? Especially when he will be looked upon as a savior of the franchise. The kid simply isn't ready for that type of hype and expectation. He needs at least this year and next to mature. He most likely will stay in school. It does make sense if you look at it objectively. If he stays in school and comes out for the 2019 draft he will be the best of a weak class and it will ensure his #1 status. Especially if he keeps up his up and down play. There is no doubting his talent but if the head ain't ready all the talent in the world will not be enough. If by some miracle the Jets had the #1 pick I take the trade scenario and stockpile picks. You could set yourself up for years and have multiple picks in the early rounds to do what you will with. I just don't trust Macc to make those picks or setup that scenario. It is beyond his skill set IMO and he will somehow manage to screw it up.

Who should the Jets hire to replace him to find a franchise QB?

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33 minutes ago, JetFaninMI said:

100% CORRECT. Macc can't be trusted to pick the next franchise QB. Not based on his track record.

Darnold is a sophomore and playing like one. He can't handle the pressure now in Southern California. How is he going to handle it in the media capitol of the world? Especially when he will be looked upon as a savior of the franchise. The kid simply isn't ready for that type of hype and expectation. He needs at least this year and next to mature. He most likely will stay in school. It does make sense if you look at it objectively. If he stays in school and comes out for the 2019 draft he will be the best of a weak class and it will ensure his #1 status. Especially if he keeps up his up and down play. There is no doubting his talent but if the head ain't ready all the talent in the world will not be enough. If by some miracle the Jets had the #1 pick I take the trade scenario and stockpile picks. You could set yourself up for years and have multiple picks in the early rounds to do what you will with. I just don't trust Macc to make those picks or setup that scenario. It is beyond his skill set IMO and he will somehow manage to screw it up.

He'd be a dumb ass if he stayed and he's ranked the best qb this year. If he gets hurt he's ****ed and if he goes thru a sh*t season he'll end up like Matt Barkley , top 5 player to late round pick, they'll tell him to go to the draft

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If I was really convinced that one of the QBs was a clear HOF level talent and he was there to take at 1 I would not trade the pick.

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4 hours ago, Warfish said:

So lets Hypothetical:

Sam Darnold, QB, USC (Pick #1/#1)

vs.

Baker Mayfield, QB (#12-15, 2018 Draft)
Mitch Hyatt, OT (#40-45, 2018 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade WR or RB, (#12-15, 2019 Draft)
A Mid-First Round Grade O-Lineman, (#12-15, 2020 Draft)

Which would you choose?

frankly i don't know if any fan can evaluate the talent of darnold vs mayfield and make an intelligent choice. according to the draft position points chart the no. 1 pick is worth 3000 and the 12-15 about 1100. but with so many near and future picks, the team would be able to bring some pretty good talent over a period of time.  not so bad when you consider the average career length of a player.  and you see teams like detroit who do have a top tier qb just not getting it together.  imo the trade down option is better but that depends on the relative rating of the qb's involved not their draft position points.

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6 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I've read enough opinions (not just on JN) that say it's not worth the huge cost to move up to #1, especially in a QB class like this.

If you are strongly against trading up from ~picks #6-12 up to #1 do you also feel it's a no-brainer to trade down to gain the Rams' end of the RGIII deal? Something like trading from #1 down to ~#6-12 overall in 2018, and pick up a 2nd rounder ~#40-45 overall in 2018, plus more 1st round picks in 2019 and 2020?

We'd still (presumably) get a QB worthy of a top 10ish overall pick, plus we'd have upcoming:

  • three 2nd round picks in 2018 (more than enough to also use a 2nd rd pick on a QB in 2018 and not sweat it)
  • two 1st round picks in 2019
  • two 1st round picks in 2020

My own stance has been that, in taking a QB at #1 (a consensus #1 overall talent QB prospect; not reaching two picks even higher for Blake Bortles), you're surrendering all that compensation whether you naturally ended up at #1 overall or traded up to get there. But one is far more controversial than the other.

Just curious what others think.

The going rate to move up for a consensus #1 overall talent QB prospect is still too low. This is an economically factual thing. As framed the prompt seems to be more about feelings.

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1 hour ago, Maddog45 said:

He'd be a dumb ass if he stayed and he's ranked the best qb this year. If he gets hurt he's ****ed and if he goes thru a sh*t season he'll end up like Matt Barkley , top 5 player to late round pick, they'll tell him to go to the draft

You have your opinion I have mine. His performance has been sub-par so far so unless he lights it up the rest of the way he won't be the #1 rated QB. He could get hurt at anytime so I don't see the relevance of that. If he is just mediocre the rest of the way he stays.

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1 hour ago, AFJF said:

Who should the Jets hire to replace him to find a franchise QB?

Well your guess is as good as mine. I just don't trust the guy with the pick. What they should do is let Macc do what he does best. Writing contracts. That is his strength. He knows his way around the cap but as far as player personnel moves he is mostly miss. Its hard to say who should replace him because you never know who will be available when the time comes too replace  him. I like Eric Decosta in Baltimore and Eliot Wolf from Green Bay. These are two solid guys and either would be a good choice IMO.

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