Esiason's Have and Have- Not teams

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Looking into the crystal ball

By Boomer Esiason

Special to NFL.com

(Sept. 1, 2005) -- While it's impossible to make long-term forecasts for teams and some may think it's silly, this week's column is the one I enjoy writing the most. Trying to peek through the looking glass is fun and forces me to go into greater depth and detail during my preseason study of NFL teams.

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Let's breakdown the NFL into three categories: first will be the "Haves," second will be the "Wants" and third will be the "Have Nots."

It's safe to assume that there are 10 teams that on paper are clearly better than the other 22 teams. By looking at past performances, roster additions and subtractions, coaching stability, age of roster, defense and, most importantly, their quarterback, we can see that playoff success is destined for these teams. Now whether or not they make it to the Super Bowl will depend on the health of their most important player.

In order, here are the 10 most important players of the 10 best teams, which make up the "Haves" category for this column. If any of these players are injured for any length of time, the chance for their team to make the playoffs is unlikely.

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

2. Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons

3. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

4. Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens

5. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles

6. Daunte Culpepper, Minnesota Vikings

7. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

8. Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers

9. Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams

10. Chad Pennington, New York Jets

So there you have it. Those are my top 10 teams, but not in order of who I think is the best team, rather in order of who I think is the most important player to his respective team.

As you can see, Ray Lewis and LaDainian Tomlinson are the only two non-quarterbacks; that's because these two players are so special that they can take their team on their shoulders and lead them to victory. Their presence in the locker room and starting lineup is a must for their teams to win. You might also think that Chad Pennington should be ranked higher on this list, but in my mind, the signing of Jay Fiedler as his backup will definitely reduce the impact of a Pennington injury for the Jets. Remember, last season, the Jets had to turn to Quincy Carter. Pennington may have been second on this list if that were still the case.

Some may think Tom Brady has got to be the most important player to his team. While he's high on my list, he's not in the top three based on the fact that Bill Belichick can win games running the wishbone if it came down to it. That's where coaching plays into my decision-making. In Philadelphia, Andy Reid, like Belichick, has had to out-coach his opponents while his star players have dealt with injury. Come to think of it, it seems every year the Eagles have overcome more major injuries and free-agent defections than any other team in the NFL. I may be wrong, but that's my perception.

All the teams in my top 10 can boast a great quarterback, with the exception of Baltimore. All have opportunistic defenses and stability at the head-coach position. That's why they are on this list.

The Wants

This is a group of 12 teams that, with a little bit of luck, can find themselves in the top 10, but first have to find consistency among their rosters. This group also tends to change a lot on one side of the ball. Here are a few examples.

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Great offense, but defensively has been awful. Is it the coordinator, the players or the general manager? This year they brought in names like Patrick Surtain and Kendrell Bell on defense to try to solve the problems.

2. Dallas Cowboys: Bill Parcells and company also made headlines with defensive additions like Anthony Henry and Jason Ferguson, plus added yet another quarterback with Drew Bledsoe. It's really tough to be a one-hit wonder.

3. Green Bay Packers: With yet another distraction, Brett Favre now has to deal with Hurricane Katrina as his family members have felt the wrath of the massive storm. For Favre, the past two-and-a-half years have dealt him more life lessons than most people deal with in a lifetime. So while he is a great quarterback, asking him at his age (36 in October) to carry his team is a challenge, to say the least.

4. New Orleans Saints: Much like Favre, the Saints' families have had to deal with Katrina. The governor of Louisiana showed the emotion by breaking down during a press conference; I'm sure each of the Saints' players feels that emotion as well. Asking the Saints to go through some of the same distractions that the Dolphins, Bucs and Jaguars dealt with during hurricane season last year is asking a lot, especially from a young and completely unpredictable roster that is led by the brilliant and, at times, frustrating, Aaron Brooks.

Quarterback Byron Leftwich holds the key for the Jaguars.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: While their defense should be one of the top units in the league and the head coach is high energy, this team also has an inconsistency at quarterback with Byron Leftwich. I believe this should be his breakout season, and if it is, the Jaguars will get ultimately what they want -- to get deep into the playoffs.

6. Denver Broncos: At least the Broncos are in a division where two other teams, Kansas City and Oakland, are dealing with many of the same issues. Coach Mike Shanahan is trying to revamp the defense once again this season and is relying on quarterback Jake Plummer, who can be more than erratic at times. I have to think that when Denver was winning the Super Bowl with John Elway and Terrell Davis, Shanahan had it easy compared to what he is dealing with now. By adding a minimum of six free agents on defense plus Jerry Rice and cutting third-round draft pick Maurice Clarett, the Broncos don't really seem to be anything other than a team that has been in transition since the Elway era.

7. Buffalo Bills: This is one of the big question marks of the NFL. The Bills have an outstanding defense and a running back that could have a combined 2,000 yard-season in Willis McGahee. But can quarterback J.P. Losman win the tough games on the road in New England, New York, San Diego and Tampa Bay? I have a feeling that while Losman has looked good at times during camp, their coaching staff has to be a bit edgy about its young quarterback handling the tough in-game situations.

8. Oakland Raiders: I guess on paper Kerry Collins should throw for 6,000 yards and 65 touchdowns. At least that seems to be the general opinion because of all the firepower they supposedly possess on offense. I have always believed in Collins' ability on the field, and in my heart I believe that most of his teammates respect his ability. Sometimes, however, I think Collins is too quiet for his own good, and the potential for Randy Moss to become a distraction within the body of the game is an extreme possibility. Collins and head coach Norv Turner are known in NFL circles to be great guys and have been highly successful during their careers, but the expectations for this team on offense are so high that anything less than a near-record performance will be considered a failure.

9. Seattle Seahawks: I love the personality and intelligence of Matt Hasselbeck, and I believe he is one of the top 10 quarterbacks in football. Coupled with a great coach, it is now time for the Mike Holmgren-Hasselbeck duo to take it to the next level. This team has had a series of contract snafus over the years but has seemed to finally settle. They are in the NFL's weakest division and points and yards should be plentiful, but in order for them to get to that next level, their wide receivers have to stop dropping footballs. And on defense, with no less than five projected new starters, they need to improve significantly in all areas if Seattle is going to make that quantum leap.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers: I know Ben Roethlisberger had a great season last year and exceeded all expectations, but they were misfiring against the good teams in the big games at the end of the season. When Roethlisberger talked about riding a motorcycle without a helmet during the offseason, I was wondering if he had already fallen off the bike. With the loss of Plaxico Burress, the contract situation of Hines Ward and injuries to Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis, Roethlisberger is going to realize quickly what it means to have all the pressure directed toward him. No longer can it be a rookie mistake. I believe his play is the biggest question mark coming into this season for the Steelers.

11a & 11b. Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions: Okay, try not to laugh at me, but sooner or later these perennial Have Nots will make it. With so many good players on each roster, two good football coaches and more optimism than either organization has had in quite some time, there is a belief that they will succeed. If not, exorcism will come in some form, be it coach, player or general manager.

The Have Nots

1. Washington Redskins: They could buy every available free agent, but that won't fix internal organizational problems.

2. Chicago Bears: Rookie quarterback Kyle Orton