LockeJET Posted January 15, 2010 Share Posted January 15, 2010 http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondth...009NFLDIVISION Each Tuesday morning, we preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our year end NFL power rankings and links to the 2009 NFL pre-season preview are located here. To see how far each team will go in the 2010 NFL Playoffs and who we predict has the best shot at winning SuperBowl XLIV, see our 2010 NFL Playoff Preview. The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see our season-to-date performance, click here. Divisional Matchups One side is rested, perhaps a little too much? The other has the momentum, but hasn't had a week off -- except for perhaps the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17 -- since bye week. It's the NFL Divisional round, maybe the most exciting playoff weekend of the NFL season and fresh off a 3-1 start in wildcard action, the WhatIfSports.com computer -- never one to take a week off -- tries to continue its success with 10,001 simulations of each matchup. ARIZONA AT NEW ORLEANS The Arizona Cardinals all but took the final week of the regular season off, rolling over for the Green Bay Packers and then taking the Packers down in overtime in the first round of the playoffs on Sunday. The New Orleans Saints didn't try to fool anybody in resting up for this game, giving quarterback Drew Brees and other starters the day off in the final week. Now these two offensive juggernauts will square off for the first time this season. The Cardinals showed they could put up points in a big way. They threw for 11.5 yards per attempt in that game, but that certainly was a bit of an anomaly compared to the regular season, where they ranked 12th in the league with 7.1 yards per attempt. And on the ground, they tied for just 19th with 4.1 rushing yards per carry. And even if Arizona can put together another record-setting offensive performance, getting in a shootout with New Orleans is not advised. And with a defense that gives up 4.5 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass attempt, that's exactly what the Cardinals would be doing. There's no smoke and mirrors when it comes to the Saints' offense. Only the Dallas Cowboys matched their offensive output of 6.3 yards per play on the offensive side of the ball as Brees led them to the top passing numbers in the league during the regular season and Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush helped them to a top five rushing offense as well. But the Saints' defense deserves attention as well. But the New Orleans defense gives up 5.5 yards per play, another sign that this one could lead to a shootout. Whether this game provides another offensive onslaught or not, the computer likes this game as the biggest blowout of the week, with New Orleans winning 83.9% of the time by an average score of 36-20. DALLAS AT MINNESOTA While one NFC playoff game provides the biggest blowout of the weekend, the other one provides the closest game of the week. The Dallas Cowboys dominated the Philadelphia Eagles for the second straight week during the wildcard round. The Minnesota Vikings wrapped up the bye in the final week of the season and is about the only team that got a bye that didn't take the final week of the season off. Now quarterbacks Tony Romo and Brett Favre will battle for a spot in the conference championship. Dallas shook off its December curse and then followed suit by ending any talk of a playoff slump by decimating the Eagles. Somewhat quietly, the Cowboys matched the Saints step for step on offense, actually putting up the top mark in terms of yards per play thanks to the second-ranked rushing game and the fourth-ranked passing attack. Like the Saints, Dallas leaves a little to be desired defensively, giving up 5.2 yards per play, but they do boast one of the top 10 rushing defenses, which could be critical against Adrian Peterson and the Vikings. Minnesota picked up Favre in the offseason and “the old gunslinger” has helped lead them back to the Divisional Playoffs. The Vikings mirror the Cowboys somewhat. Minnesota's offense isn't quite as prolific, but did put up nearly six yards per play thanks, somewhat surprisingly, more to Favre than to Peterson as the Vikings barely averaged four yards per carry. Defensively, Minnesota lags behind in passing, but boasts one of the best rushing defenses in the league. Perhaps the quarterbacks will be left to “gunsling it out” in what could be the most exciting game of the weekend. Dallas pulls off the road win, but just 52.9% of the time and by just a single point, most likely setting up another exciting matchup with New Orleans in the conference finale. BALTIMORE AT INDIANAPOLIS The Indianapolis Colts made all kinds of news when they took the final two weeks of the regular season off despite the fact that perfection was on the line after a 15-0 start. The Baltimore Ravens have had no choice but to duke it out every single week as they made the playoffs with a victory in the final week and then had to beat New England just to get to the top team in the AFC. Now Peyton Manning's arm will take on Ray Rice and Willis McGahee's leg. Not surprisingly, the Colts put together the best offensive season in the AFC at 5.9 yards per play. Manning's arm clearly had a lot to do with that. Indianapolis averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt, but ranked an abysmal second-to-last in the NFL in rushing, gaining just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground. Defensively, the Colts are no slouch, either, giving up just 5.0 yards per play on that side of the ball. They match their passing offense with their passing defense, giving up just 6.2 yards per attempt. But they rank just middle of the pack in terms of rushing, which is clearly the bigger number this week. Baltimore passed the ball just 10 times against the Patriots and basically lined up showing all of its cards as to which way the Ravens were going to run the ball. They still ran all over New England. The Ravens' offensive numbers don't necessarily turn heads, but their rushing numbers in the wildcard round surely did and they weren't really any fluke as Baltimore boasted the fourth-best rushing attack during the regular season. And defensively, the Ravens have never been slouches and they aren't this year, ranking third overall and, most importantly, put up top-10 numbers against the pass. In the battle of run against pass, the rushing team wins again as the Ravens move on to the AFC title game 58.2% of the time, though also by just an average of one point. NEW YORK JETS AT SAN DIEGO Can the Jets make it a perfect 2-for-2 in wildcard teams making it to the AFC Championship? New York was the last team to get in the playoffs, winning the final game of Week 17 just to get in the field. Then they duplicated the feat by beating Cincinnati for the second straight week to advance through to the Divisional Round. The San Diego Chargers are there, ready and waiting after putting together an 11-game winning streak to end the year. As was noticed in last week's surprise, the Jets are the computer's favorite to win the Super Bowl thanks to a bevy of numbers that simply stack up well. New York had just the 21st-ranked total offense in the regular season in terms of yards per play, but they're a top-5 team on the ground and that showed in a whole new way in the first round of the playoffs as Shonn Greene rushed for 139 yards on a career-high 21 carries. And defensively, the Jets are second to none as they gave up an astonishingly low 4.2 yards per play thanks to the top-ranked passing defense in terms of yards per attempt and the fourth-best rushing defense. Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers will have to tame that defense to extend their winning streak and advance to the conference championship. It could be tough for the Chargers' pass-heavy offense to make that happen, however. San Diego ranked fourth in the regular season at 5.9 yards per offensive play, but did almost all of that damage through the air. The Chargers rank first in passing yards per attempt -- yes, better than Manning and the Colts or Brees and the Saints -- yet they rank dead last with just 3.3 yards per carry. And defensively, the Bolts struggled against the run, giving up 4.5 yards per carry to rank near the bottom of the league for a defense that was simply middle of the run. In ground game versus aerial assault, yet again the computer likes the team that can run the ball and likes a battle of wildcard teams in the AFC title game. The Jets win 70.3% of the time, winning by an average score of 24-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LockeJET Posted January 15, 2010 Author Share Posted January 15, 2010 http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondth...009NFLPLAYOFFS Does Rex Ryan use WhatIfSports.com? On Wednesday, New York Jets coach Rex Ryan said his team should be favorites to win the Super Bowl. After running the playoffs 1,001 times, the computers at WhatIfSports.com have obliged. Many NFL fans believe the Jets backed their way into the playoffs, only making it in thanks to late-season victories over backup players from the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals, who had already sealed their playoff fates. But now that New York is in, their vaunted defense and impressive numbers on both sides of the ball make them favorites to win the Super Bowl as they advance through the playoffs to win it all 15.88% of the time, more than one percentage point higher than the New Orleans Saints. For the Jets to pull off what many others consider an improbable run, they'll have to live by the old adage that defense wins championships as New York is second to none on that side of the ball. The Jets boast, by far, the best passing defense in the league as they give up just 5.4 yards per pass attempt, more than half a yard better than the Buffalo Bills and nearly a yard better than their closest playoff foe, the Indianapolis Colts, in that category. And New York isn't far behind in terms of rushing as it ranked fourth in the league during the regular season, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry, 0.4 ypc behind the Baltimore Ravens. Thus, in terms of yards allowed per play, the Jets defense winds up on top by far. They gave up just 4.2 yards per play on the season, a full 0.6 yards ahead of the second-place Green Bay Packers and at least a full yard better than two-thirds of the league. Offensively, New York boasts a number that the computer likes as well. Behind Thomas Jones, the Jets rank fifth overall and third amongst playoff teams at 4.5 yards per carry. But a 17th-ranked offense in terms of passing yards per attempt drops them all the way outside the top 20 in terms of offensive yards per play. And the obvious wildcard comes with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. A first-year signal-caller is capable of completely muddling up even the strongest of numbers and that was clearly the case as the Jets nearly missed out on the playoffs altogether. Now that they're there, the numbers would signify that they could be the top contender. The Jets beat the Bengals 68% of the time in this weekend's wildcard matchup, advance to the AFC Championship 43.8% of the time, make the Super Bowl 29% of the time and win it all at a 15.88% rate. NFC PROVIDES TOP CONTENDERS Outside of the Jets, three other teams win the Super Bowl more than 13% of the time in 1,001 simulations and they all come from the NFC. The second-favorite couldn't be much more opposite from the Jets. The New Orleans Saints, top seed in the conference, hardly had to find a way into the playoffs, even resting quarterback Drew Brees and their starters in the final weekend of the season. More than that, they're opposite in terms of the numbers as well, as the Saints boast the top offense in the NFL, picking up more than six yards per play. They also have the third-ranked passing offense, gaining 8.3 yards per attempt and is tied for fifth with 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. And while the Jets have the top-ranked defense, the Saints rank just 21st in yards given up per play. Still, while their route would be different, New Orleans comes in as the second favorite, getting a bye into the second round, advancing to the NFC Championship game 59.5% of the time, making the Super Bowl at a 27.6% clip and winning it all 14.59% of the time. The Saints should see nearly equal challenges in the NFC race from the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys and both teams provide more of a balanced approach in terms of numbers on each side of the ball. The Vikings, behind quarterback Brett Favre, rank 10th in the league at 5.8 yards per play on offense and rank 14th on defense at 5.2 yards per play. Minnesota makes the Super Bowl just over 27% of the time and win it 13.99% of the time. Dallas, coming off its first successful December in recent memory thanks to the play of quarterback Tony Romo, tied in the regular season with the Saints in offense at 6.3 yards per game. But the Cowboys rank 12th defensively, also giving up 5.2 yards per play. They win the Super Bowl just 0.33% less of the time than the Vikings despite having to advance through the wildcard round. The rest of the NFC - which wins the Super Bowl more than 53% of the time - faces a tall task. The Philadelphia Eagles slipped to the sixth seed in the NFC and win it all 6.19% of the time. The Green Bay Packers make the Super Bowl more frequently at 10%, but win it at just a 4.2% clip. And the Arizona Cardinals, who made the league's final showdown a year ago, make it back just 1.6% of the time, the lowest of any playoff team. AFC'S MURKY PICTURE Outside the Jets being the prohibitive favorite in the AFC, the picture is much less clearer behind them. The Baltimore Ravens, the other wildcard team, actually have the second-best chance to win the Super Bowl for the AFC. They boast the third-best defense in the NFL, giving up just 4.9 yards per play. They also have the fourth-best rushing attack in terms of yards per play, but rank just 14th in overall offense. Baltimore's biggest hurdle on paper may come right away this weekend as the Ravens draw the Patriots in the wildcard round, but they advance more than 59% of the time, making the Super Bowl 18% of the time and win it at a 9.69% clip. Then comes the AFC teams with first-round byes - the Colts and San Diego Chargers. San Diego coasted into the playoffs, but did so on a major winning streak and keeps that rolling all the way through to a world championship 7.09% of the time thanks to the fourth-best offense and 16th best defense in terms of yards per play. Indianapolis threw away the shot at a 19-0 season in Week 16, resting its starters for much of its last two games and perhaps losing momentum towards the finish line. The Colts have the eighth-best defense and the third best offense in terms of yards per play and advance to the Super Bowl 17% of the time, but win it just 6.59%. The Wes Welker-less Patriots win it just 3.8% of the time, while the Cincinnati Bengals are the biggest underdogs of the AFC, winning the Super Bowl at just a 3.7% rate. And it would take much than a plea from Marvin Lewis to get the computer to change its mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleckineau Posted January 15, 2010 Share Posted January 15, 2010 Just give NYJ the trophy now so they dont have to hurt anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGAW Posted January 15, 2010 Share Posted January 15, 2010 They didn't get you too, did they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungGreen6 Posted January 15, 2010 Share Posted January 15, 2010 Out of curiosity does anyone know the superbowl picks for these guys like the last 5-10 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LockeJET Posted January 15, 2010 Author Share Posted January 15, 2010 Out of curiosity does anyone know the superbowl picks for these guys like the last 5-10 years? They've picked the super bowl 8 years straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungGreen6 Posted January 15, 2010 Share Posted January 15, 2010 actually they picked the patriots 2 years ago but i couldnt get anything beyond that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 Just give NYJ the trophy now so they dont have to hurt anyone. Works for me. To be honest though my brain can't even conceive the thought of the Jets winning the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 In ground game versus aerial assault, yet again the computer likes the team that can run the ball and likes a battle of wildcard teams in the AFC title game. The Jets win 70.3% of the time, winning by an average score of 24-19. Amen to that, I hope it comes true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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