Right now...who would you rather have.....

[stoicsentry]

A decent kicker-of which there are many-is nearly automatic when the team gets to the 30 yad line-that is, a 47 yard kick. Unless weather conditions are very bad.

In the dome, you extend that another 5 yards.

This is not for an outstanding kicker, mind you, just a decent one. Saying that Feeley "won" us the game because he made routine kicks that many kickers who were cut could also make is not saying much.

And his kickoffs suck.

Wow if a 47 yarder is automatic for a decent kicker then I would have to tell you that most kickers are well below decent. In fact we saw two kickers in the playoffs (Kaeding and Graham) back to back who couldn't hit from 30.

[kelticwizard]

Are you trying to say that if a team is fourth and 5 from the 30 they are NOT expecting-not hoping, expecting-their field goal kicker to make it?

That's the dividing line, and everyone knows it. In decent outdoor weather, if you need a field goal to win, get it down to the 30 yard line and rely on your field goal kicker.

[flgreen]

A decent kicker-of which there are many-is nearly automatic when the team gets to the 30 yad line-that is, a 47 yard kick. Unless weather conditions are very bad.

In the dome, you extend that another 5 yards.

This is not for an outstanding kicker, mind you, just a decent one. Saying that Feeley "won" us the game because he made routine kicks that many kickers who were cut could also make is not saying much.

And his kickoffs suck.

http://profootballfocus.com/by_position.php?tab=by_position&season=2009&pos=K&stype=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1

Perhaps the NFL should send out another memo letting Kickers know that 47 Yard FG

[sirlancemehlot]

Nick Folk went 4 of 11 between 40/49 yds last year. I got no dog in this race--y'all can battle it out. But damn. He performs like that and we'll drop 2 or 3 games on bad kicking alone.

Edit: Feely was 11 of 14. Just info to get the pot stirred up a bit.

[flgreen]

I don’t have a horse in the race either. I was just reacting to the idea that a 47 yard FG is Automatic.

　

Folk was injured last season, or at least he says he was. In 08 he was 10 of 11 40-49 in 07 his Pro Bowl year he was 3-3

　

Folk’s real problem is his kick offs. When you look at the #’s for the last three years he is weaker then Jay.

　

If Folk returns to form, and he indicated the other day he will going 7-7 with 2 over 50 he will be fine

　

Field Goal kickers are a weird group. Of all the things going on with the Jets kickers are the least of my concern. I’m more worried about the snapper.

[sirlancemehlot]

. I

[Jetsfan80]

I highly doubt anyone signs Dearth as a UFA. I have to assume that if no one does, we'll be bringing him back.

[The Pickman]

DE > K

[kelticwizard]

http://profootballfocus.com/by_position.php?tab=by_position&season=2009&pos=K&stype=r&runpass=&teamid=-1&numsnaps=25&numgames=1

Perhaps the NFL should send out another memo letting Kickers know that 47 Yard FG’s are nearly automatic.

　

Seems like most of the kickers didn’t get the last one

Thanks for sending that excellent link. It shows that of the top 16 rated kickers in this 32 team league who had any attempts between 40-49 yards, the average percentage was over 77.5 percent.

Rounded off, that means a decent kicker makes 4 out of 5 from that distance.

Which is close enough to "nearly automatic", don't you agree?

[Larz]

Thanks for sending that excellent link. It shows that of the top 16 rated kickers in this 32 team league who had any attempts between 40-49 yards, the average percentage was over 77.5 percent.

Rounded off, that means a decent kicker makes 4 out of 5 from that distance.

Which is close enough to "nearly automatic", don't you agree?

you could just as easily round that average to 3/4

hardly automatic

just sayin....

[stoicsentry]

Thanks for sending that excellent link. It shows that of the top 16 rated kickers in this 32 team league who had any attempts between 40-49 yards, the average percentage was over 77.5 percent.

Rounded off, that means a decent kicker makes 4 out of 5 from that distance.

Which is close enough to "nearly automatic", don't you agree?

I would hardly call 77.5% is not automatic.

I'm just saying, I'm going to remember all this throughout next season when Folk is shanking 35 yarders.

As to the idea that OLBs (backups, mind you) are more worthwhile than kickers, well, when you've got a team like ours, kickers are pretty important. We don't have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady here. Kicking is crucial.

[kelticwizard]

you could just as easily round that average to 3/4

Not without risking failing a fourth grade arithmetic test.

77.5 percent rounds off to 78 percent or 80 percent, depending on how precise we are getting. Football strategy decisions are generally not made with such mathematical precision.

But putting pure mathematics aside, if a team has driven down to the 30 yard line and it's fourth down, unless the weather is bad that kick is expected to be made. The team's fans expect it, the players expect it, and the coach expects it.

[Sperm Edwards]

A mediocre kicker = 75%. Feely was at 84% over 2 years with the Jets.

If the Jets kicker again attempts a ridiculous 36 FG's, you're talking about the difference between 27 FG's and 30 FG's, or about 9 points on the whole season. Having a relentless pass rush on a team with the Jets secondary is going to have more than 3 cumulative FGs impact on the opponents' offenses.

And before automatically assigning those 3 FG's to 3 wins, hitting the money shot wasn't exactly Feely's forte. Plus he isn't going to win any awards for his kickoffs, which cost us one of the Miami games last year at a minimum. Touchbacks are never returned for touchdowns.

I'd have been fine with Feely returning and I will never like Jason Taylor. But still, Taylor's QB pressure + Folk/other is more valuable to this team than Jay Feely + BT's QB pressure.

I can't believe this thread was this long.

Feely was 80% between 30-39 (NFL rank = 24th)

Feely was 79% between 40-49 (NFL rank = 21st)

This is nothing to get all weepy about.

[slats]

I'm just saying, I'm going to remember all this throughout next season when Folk is shanking 35 yarders.

Really, because that's never been his m.o.

Folk was 6/7 from 30-39 yards last year. 7/8 in 2008, 7/7 in 2007.

His bad season last year was the result of going 5/12 from 40-49 yards. Prior to that, he was excellent from that range: 11/12 in 2008, 7/8 in 2007.

Could be that the guy was really hurt, and that everything is going to be fine.

[Larz]

Not without risking failing a fourth grade arithmetic test.

77.5 percent rounds off to 78 percent or 80 percent, depending on how precise we are getting. Football strategy decisions are generally not made with such mathematical precision.

But putting pure mathematics aside, if a team has driven down to the 30 yard line and it's fourth down, unless the weather is bad that kick is expected to be made. The team's fans expect it, the players expect it, and the coach expects it.

it's exactly 2.5% from either number

you chose to round it up, to support your argument

[flgreen]

Just for the sake of argument the stat is for 40-49 yards, the % drops dramatically in the 50+ category. The discussion was on 47 yard FG

[sirlancemehlot]

Just for the sake of argument the stat is for 40-49 yards, the % drops dramatically in the 50+ category. The discussion was on 47 yard FG

[Bleedin Green]

A mediocre kicker = 75%. Feely was at 84% over 2 years with the Jets.

If the Jets kicker again attempts a ridiculous 36 FG's, you're talking about the difference between 27 FG's and 30 FG's, or about 9 points on the whole season. Having a relentless pass rush on a team with the Jets secondary is going to have more than 3 cumulative FGs impact on the opponents' offenses.

And before automatically assigning those 3 FG's to 3 wins, hitting the money shot wasn't exactly Feely's forte. Plus he isn't going to win any awards for his kickoffs, which cost us one of the Miami games last year at a minimum. Touchbacks are never returned for touchdowns.

I'd have been fine with Feely returning and I will never like Jason Taylor. But still, Taylor's QB pressure + Folk/other is more valuable to this team than Jay Feely + BT's QB pressure.

I can't believe this thread was this long.

Feely was 80% between 30-39 (NFL rank = 24th)

Feely was 79% between 40-49 (NFL rank = 21st)

This is nothing to get all weepy about.

Beautifully said.

[kelticwizard]

it's exactly 2.5% from either number

you chose to round it up, to support your argument

The actual number was 77.51+ %, which makes it closer to 80%.

However, even if it was precisely 77.5%, we are taught from elementary school onward that once you hit the 50.0% mark, you round upward. If rounding to the nearest 5%, 2.50% gets rounded up to 5%, always.

Moreover, this argument was over whether 77.5%, which rounds to 80%, qualifies as "nearly automatic", (which somehow got changed to "automatic" in this thread). If 80% doesn't qualify as "nearly automatic", what does it qualify as?

It certainly doesn't qualify as "extremely iffy" or "even-steven", so what is your description-"astonishingly likely"?

You wanna have an internet brawl over whether something is "nearly automatic" or merely "astonishingly likely"?

[kelticwizard]

Just for the sake of argument the stat is for 40-49 yards, the % drops dramatically in the 50+ category. The discussion was on 47 yard FG’s. 47 is a heck of a lot closer to 50 then it is to 40.

　

Logic kind of tells me the FG % for 47 yard FG’s is even lower then 75%

　

　

Just saying

I'm not sure logic necessarily says that. Just for the heck of it, I averaged the percentage of the 16 top rated kickers in the league last year from 50+ yards, (of those who had attempts from 50+ yards), and the percentage was 70.52%.

Not exactly a dramatic dropoff from the 77.51% this same group averaged from 40-49 yards.

Regardless, there are two things we don't know:

A. How many of those 50+ yard attempts where 56 yarders or so with a few seconds left in the half, or some other situation where the team is not really expecting success, but figured what the hell?

B. Is the dropoff between each yard marker between 40 and 49 yards linear-that is, does the percentage drop the same amount between 40-41 yards as it does between 48-49 yards? Or is there some distance-say, 48 yards-where the percentage drops hugely once you pass it, but increases little or not at all if you don't pass it?

We'll never know unless we see yard-by-yard stats, but please consider the following-ever notice that on outdoor games the announcers start talking about field goal tries if the team gets to the 30 yard line, but not so much if the team gets to the 33 or 35 yard line? I think there is a general recognition in the football world that there is a big dropoff in percentage once you pass that 47 yard line-varies with the kicker of course, but there really is a generally recognized demarcation right around that yard marker.

[Larz]

The actual number was 77.51+ %, which makes it closer to 80%.

However, even if it was precisely 77.5%, we are taught from elementary school onward that once you hit the 50.0% mark, you round upward. If rounding to the nearest 5%, 2.50% gets rounded up to 5%, always.

Moreover, this argument was over whether 77.5%, which rounds to 80%, qualifies as "nearly automatic", (which somehow got changed to "automatic" in this thread). If 80% doesn't qualify as "nearly automatic", what does it qualify as?

It certainly doesn't qualify as "extremely iffy" or "even-steven", so what is your description-"astonishingly likely"?

You wanna have an internet brawl over whether something is "nearly automatic" or merely "astonishingly likely"?

stop with the 4th grade stuff, you can round either way, except in retail sales where it is always up, and in the movie office space

just curious, how did the jets acquire feeley and on what date, and what does that tell you ?

[SenorGato]

A mediocre kicker = 75%. Feely was at 84% over 2 years with the Jets.

If the Jets kicker again attempts a ridiculous 36 FG's, you're talking about the difference between 27 FG's and 30 FG's, or about 9 points on the whole season. Having a relentless pass rush on a team with the Jets secondary is going to have more than 3 cumulative FGs impact on the opponents' offenses.

And before automatically assigning those 3 FG's to 3 wins, hitting the money shot wasn't exactly Feely's forte. Plus he isn't going to win any awards for his kickoffs, which cost us one of the Miami games last year at a minimum. Touchbacks are never returned for touchdowns.

I'd have been fine with Feely returning and I will never like Jason Taylor. But still, Taylor's QB pressure + Folk/other is more valuable to this team than Jay Feely + BT's QB pressure.

I can't believe this thread was this long.

Feely was 80% between 30-39 (NFL rank = 24th)

Feely was 79% between 40-49 (NFL rank = 21st)

This is nothing to get all weepy about.

Seriously.

Folk will be fine.

[kelticwizard]

stop with the 4th grade stuff, you can round either way, except in retail sales where it is always up, and in the movie office space

Everything I ever needed to know about math I learned by fourth grade, which is fortunate since my mathematical ability never passed that point. Upward it is. Besides the actual percentage is 77.51 something percent, so it's closer to 80% after all.

just curious, how did the jets acquire feeley and on what date, and what does that tell you ?

He was signed on Sept 8, 2008, after Nugent got injured. Two weeks earlier he had been cut by Kansas City, and two weeks before that he was cut by Miami. I honestly don't know what this tells me about him other than he was not considered an elite kicker.

[Klecko73isGod]

A mediocre kicker = 75%. Feely was at 84% over 2 years with the Jets.

If the Jets kicker again attempts a ridiculous 36 FG's, you're talking about the difference between 27 FG's and 30 FG's, or about 9 points on the whole season. Having a relentless pass rush on a team with the Jets secondary is going to have more than 3 cumulative FGs impact on the opponents' offenses.

And before automatically assigning those 3 FG's to 3 wins, hitting the money shot wasn't exactly Feely's forte. Plus he isn't going to win any awards for his kickoffs, which cost us one of the Miami games last year at a minimum. Touchbacks are never returned for touchdowns.

I'd have been fine with Feely returning and I will never like Jason Taylor. But still, Taylor's QB pressure + Folk/other is more valuable to this team than Jay Feely + BT's QB pressure.

I can't believe this thread was this long.

Feely was 80% between 30-39 (NFL rank = 24th)

Feely was 79% between 40-49 (NFL rank = 21st)

This is nothing to get all weepy about.

Somebody just slapped a bitch.

[Jetsfan80]

I honestly don't know what this tells me about him other than he was not considered an elite kicker.

Exactly. And unless you're an elite kicker, there are tons of other average kickers either in the league or unemployed just like you.

[sirlancemehlot]

Kickers are hot and cold from season to season, even from month to month within a season. It seems that some eventually level off and offer consistency as they reach a certain level of maturation (Leahy was a classic example of this). I think Feely was approaching this level of consistency and as such I felt somewhat more comfortable when he lined up than I did when Nugent, Brien or Hall lined up. He's not elite, just pretty good. Sometimes knowing your kicker is pretty good gives you the confidence to take a shot in a long or windy or rainy situation when you might not otherwise. Also, Nick Folk is currently not consistent whatsoever.

[Klecko73isGod]

Kickers are hot and cold from season to season, even from month to month within a season. It seems that some eventually level off and offer consistency as they reach a certain level of maturation (Leahy was a classic example of this). I think Feely was approaching this level of consistency and as such I felt somewhat more comfortable when he lined up than I did when Nugent, Brien or Hall lined up. He's not elite, just pretty good. Sometimes knowing your kicker is pretty good gives you the confidence to take a shot in a long or windy or rainy situation when you might not otherwise. Also, Nick Folk is currently not consistent whatsoever.

You ever think that Folk might be ready to take that next step himself? All kickers have bad years. Feely was just as terrible in his third year in the league as Folk was. Feely went 19 of 27 for the Falcons in 2003, Folk went 18 of 28 last year for the Cowboys.

Folk has shown considerable upside so I'm willing to give him a chance. Especially considering how terrible Feely was against the Colts when it mattered most.

You've said how much more comfortable you were with Feely than Doug Brien and I'll bet you've killed Brien for his misses against Pittsburgh. Well Brien's misses were under much tougher circumstances than Feely's misses against Indy. Why not kill Feely for missing twice, indoors, in lower-pressure situations than Brien's misses against Pittburgh when either one of those kicks would have set a record for the longer FG by a visiting kicker in that stadium.

[Aten]

Kickers are hot and cold from season to season, even from month to month within a season. It seems that some eventually level off and offer consistency as they reach a certain level of maturation (Leahy was a classic example of this).

Leahy wasn't consistent. Vinatieri wasn't clutch. It's all made-up nonsense. There simply is no such thing as consistency in field goal kicking, end of story.

[sirlancemehlot]

Leahy wasn't consistent. Vinatieri wasn't clutch. It's all made-up nonsense. There simply is no such thing as consistency in field goal kicking, end of story.

There is no such thing as a consistent kicker? If a guy makes 75% of his kicks over 16 games, he's a consistent kicker. If he makes 60%, he's not consistent. There is a demarcation line when it comes to kicking, as there is when it comes to passing (is 75% completion rate inconsistent?). Oh, and my post says Leahy matured into consistency. He did. It's simply true that, after struggling earlier in his career, he became a very solid kicker, setting as record for consecutive field goals at the time.

By the way, Folk missed 3 FG's from the 42 with no rush on wednesday. Is that made up nonsense?

[jgb]

let me just point out that if a kicker is the biggest worry we are probably ok. if folk collapses there are plenty of bubble dudes who can do a decent job waiting by the phone.

[kelticwizard]

my post says Leahy matured into consistency. He did. It's simply true that, after struggling earlier in his career, he became a very solid kicker, setting as record for consecutive field goals at the time.

I'll vouch for that. When Leahy first came to the Jets, myself and most fans wondered how the hell he kept his job-for awhile he couldn't hit extra points! Amazingly he kept the job for a few years being inconsistent-I'll never know why. But then, as time went on, he got better and better and by the time he was done he was very consistent and a fan favorite.

[stoicsentry]

Folk missed three in a row from 42.

Guess he's not average, since to an average kicker those are automatic.

Jets better get to work finding that elusive average kicker, since we've had very few in our history.

[Jetsfan80]

Folk missed three in a row from 42.

Guess he's not average, since to an average kicker those are automatic.

Jets better get to work finding that elusive average kicker, since we've had very few in our history.

Matt Stover.

[slats]

Folk missed three in a row from 42.

Guess he's not average, since to an average kicker those are automatic.

Jets better get to work finding that elusive average kicker, since we've had very few in our history.

If Folk doesn't work out, another kicker will.

Post again if/when Taylor sh!ts the bed. This is getting OLD.

[Sperm Edwards]

If Folk doesn't work out, another kicker will.

Post again if/when Taylor sh!ts the bed. This is getting OLD.

You're getting old.

Oh yeah, I went there.

Seriously, though. This has gotten old. When we lose the game that ends our season because we don't have the great Jay Feely AND proving we didn't get as far as we did thanks to Taylor, then complain.