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jgb

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Everything posted by jgb

  1. First time we agreed about a QB. The space-time continuum is being torn asunder. Not a surprise, lol. You can add that I don't question the fandom of those who disagree with me as yet another difference between us.
  2. K. Don't care to parse this really boring semantic debate here. Have a nice day.
  3. This was the case last year, and we didn’t.
  4. I don’t hate him. The only players I “hate” are scumbags — wife beaters, criminals, etc. But it is fair to say I am not optimistic about his future for reasons that are clear to all and don’t need to be repeated here.
  5. I hope the QB plays every snap even if there is zero movement from last year. Either he figures it out and we got our guy or he doesn’t and we move on.
  6. Better than a QB that can’t throw the ball less than 15 yards
  7. Unless you are one the the NFL’s elite teams in terms of stability, management and sustained success, it’s hard to fault Tammy’s strategy to go all in when we had a window the future be damned. As you’ve said, it was destined to end the way it did but this is the Jets we are talking about you take your shots when you get them.
  8. The whole kicking thing I really don’t get. There are what 150 college teams and most of those guys must hit 80% or better on XPs. So with like 40 college kickers coming out each year (not to mention tons of soccer players that go into professions other than soccer because it doesn’t pay the bills) we can’t find ONE that isn’t a total choke artist? Time to pull a dick vermeil and have open kickoff tryouts in the MetLife parking lot
  9. One problem is if Wilson goes down do you really think people will be on board with drafting another QB? “He got hurt haterz and deserves another year.”
  10. Huge fan of the emotional hedge. But the only futures bet I’m interested in this year is Mitch Trubisky for CBPOTY. If I’m tying up my money for months I want the potential for a better return than a 50/50 bet. But currently at only +800, not rich enough for me yet. A couple good reports about Pickett out of camp (they will come, they always do) or a decent pre-season showing, should move that in my favor.
  11. Weekly bets IMHO are the better play both from a time value of money perspective and there can be quite big variance in line swings as the public overreacts to news or short term trends.
  12. What do you think of your team’s execution? I’m in favor of it. Quite possibly the greatest exchange in NFL history.
  13. It’s a good discussion. Fair to say we disagree, but that’s what makes the world go round. And no Joe Schmo doesn’t move the line but thousands of them can. If you are confident in your read you should bet it and bet it hard, especially if you think the line will keep moving. I genuinely wish you luck because it would mean the Jets are doing well and I like to see Jets fans profit from that emotionally and financially.
  14. Is whining about whining whining? If so, don’t worry your crown is safe.
  15. Credit to Sanchez for having some memorable moments in the playoffs but you’re spot on here. Those teams could’ve gotten as far with like 25 of the 32 starting QBs. You do not pay a premium for players like that. If they play hardball you replace with a cheap journeyman and/or draft again.
  16. By this criteria, if you’re talking offense, Marion Barber III (RIP) is your RB1.
  17. Sanchez extension made Carolina picking up Darnold’s 5th year option appear Newsomesque in comparison.
  18. Only if you can pass, catch, jump, run, tackle, cover or kick.
  19. Nor am I but the existence of MW will not prevent the Jets from pursuing whatever other QB avenues are available next off season if need be. #2 needs to start as much as possible and not still be a question mark this time next year. In order of preferred outcomes: 1. He shows out. Doesn’t have to be perfect but demonstrates undeniable FQB traits (I.e. production). 2. He bombs miserably and Jets accept they need to move on. 3. He does neither of these things and we are in the same place we are now. Goes without saying we are all hoping for #1 but contemplating #2 or even being worried that it’s the most likely outcome doesn’t mean rooting for him to fail. I have insurance on my house but I don’t want it to burn down. #3 is the nightmare scenario I hope to avoid.
  20. Win total O/Us are tourist bets, sucker bets (“for fun” or “lark” bets if you want to be kind). The built-in vig is massive, information is poor, and the payout window is many, many months away — there isn’t much edge to be gained by a sophisticated gambler on a bet like this in early summer and his money sits there not doing work for many months. Pros cycle that money every week, capitalizing on their information edge and going contrarian against lines that reflect an emotional over-reaction to short term trends. This is all volume action — Joe from Parsippany plunking down a couple hundred on “this is gonna be the year!” Putting aside that “sharps” generally avoid these kind of futures bets like the plague — the exception being if they have an inside line on a team at the edge of making a blockbuster QB trade — the far more likely reason for the line creeping up is because of Jets fans pouring in money, drawn in by the promise of the off season and juiced by the best post-draft coverage the team has gotten in 10+ years. Look at this board — people are downright offended that the O/U is “so low” and want to “defend their team’s honor” by “proving Vegas wrong.” Vegas is pretty darn good at this psychology stuff. You are right about there being a bias for the over for the reasons above — Joe Schmo is much more likely to bet the over on “his” team than the under on teams he hates. I did an analysis on this board a few years ago of the win total O/Us and if you add them all up, they account for more wins than the NFL will see in a year (32 times 17 now, was 32 times 16 then). It’s even more overweighted if you consider ties. This is an additional “hidden vig” on the over. This is not a conspiracy. Remember, Vegas uses lines to balance the action, not to predict the future. After the initial line is set by a handicapper, it is at the mercy of the masses and reflects the herd bias to bet the over. If sharps were inclined to tie up their money for several months on future bets, this overweighting would quickly dissolve. Its existence shows definitively that they are not. To be fair, I have not and don’t plan to do the same analysis this year but I’d bet (ha!) it’s the same. Fundamental human psychology just doesn’t change that quickly. If you really want to play it smart, you’d avoid these bets entirely but failing that, you’d bet the under on teams who would see less wins should the Jets overachieve and take the built-in edge under bets enjoy.
  21. Seriously! Jeeze… oh and thanks for the downvote.
  22. Speaking of bad neighbors what's up with people who buy a house in a leafy subdivision just to chop down all the trees in front of their house? That really grinds my gears.
  23. The Jets will put me in the game before they risk him showing up #2 ever again
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