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jgb

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Posts posted by jgb

  1. 2 hours ago, slimjasi said:

    I have a PhD in applied physics. I'm willing to bet that I have actually used more statistics than the vast majority of this board. 

     

    FYI: As I pointed out, there is really no way to know what his yards/completion would actually be simply from converting drops into completions. 

    First point, valid.

    Second point, innate misunderstanding of statistics. If you had the requisite knowledge, you would have a way to know within an acceptable degree of statistical confidence.

    PS: I feel no need to flash my credentials here, I wish for my arguments to rise and fall based on their merits.

  2. 23 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    Read it again.  Yards per COMPLETION, not attempt.  

    8.4 yards per COMPLETION is terrible.  For reference, the # 33 rated QB in Y/C last year was Jacoby Brissett, who averaged 9.1 yards per completion.

    People don’t understand statistics innately. This is why Las Vegas thrives. Those buildings weren’t financed by good choices made by their customers.

    • Upvote 1
    • Haha 1
  3. 37 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

    For sure. 

    But this thread feels like

    us: "Zach Wilson had a solid scrimmage. It feels like he's improving. 12 for 19 with 5 drops is pretty good and without the drops, he would have really feasted"

    you: "But he sucked LAST YEAR and the drops didn't make THAT much of an impact LAST YEAR!"

    Sorry if I gave that impression. I’ve said his completion percentage in the scrimmage is both encouraging and the only metric I care about right now. I do bristle at the suggestion that drops are the (or a material) determining factor in his success or failure, that is true.

    • Upvote 1
  4. 59 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

    I think the argument is that the total number of drops is meaningless - what matters is what percentage of your passes were dropped. 

    Fine. Even adjusting down to league mean we are not talking about the difference between the worst rated passer and even an average one.

    An improvement needs to come from within. Reducing drops to league average is not going to automatically lead to competent QB play.

  5. 1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

    I don’t care who else has a similar number of drops, I’d bet Zach came on fewer passes.  And we don’t know if the dro;s we’re more impactful or not.

    He want good last year.  But no one would have had success with the receivers he had.

    A fan has the option to view things in such a way but for me, these factors which you don’t care about are critical in any objective analysis.

  6. 1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

    1221406833_ScreenShot2022-08-07at8_58_18PM.thumb.png.62819656ae8ca62211e21dcf15652dfe.png

    I didn't take your opinion but simple asked a question (note the ? at the end of my sentence)  It seemed like that's what were you alluding to - so I asked because it seemed illogical to me.  Apparently you don't believe that.

     

     

    This has been posted here a few times, but since you asked..

    I do think many here are still too backward looking looking.  That's not what I'm trying to do.  Right now my concern is about this upcoming season - the reason last year's drops came up (for me) was because those concerns resurfaced during the scrimmage.  Just like if Zach starting dirting balls in the scrimmage there would be a major concern because it was a trend from last year - but certainly wouldn't change anything from last year.

     

    Well, we disagree on the severity of the problem last year — and probably we also disagree on the relative allocation of responsibility for the drops — but we certainly agree less drops is generally better, except in the case where they are eliminated by overly-restricting the offense.

  7. 1 hour ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

    We’re saying he was good in the scrimmage, not last year. 
     

    Didn’t see the scrimmage so no opinion there. Although from the numbers I’m encouraged. I care more about his completion percentage than yards and TD/INTs at this point of the pre-season. Want to see him settled and in-rhythm. The completion % is a good thing to see.

    1 hour ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

    I looked this up previously so I don’t remember the numbers exactly.  The Chargers led the league in drops, but had like 100 more pass attempts.

    You have to go by drop percentage which the Jets led by a wide margin. 

    I’d be interested to see where he would rank if he suffered “only” a league-mean drop percentage. I hypothesize it would not reflect a material improvement as far as his various statistics go, but I leave it to a proponent of the argument to make their own case, if they wish. I’d certainly enjoy seeing the numbers.

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  8. 4 hours ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

    Some simple math can help out a lot here....  And to be clear, I am not sold in either direction on Wilson, I have seen some good signs and some bad signs, and I think like most young players he needs to develop, but as a Jets fan I hope he does develop.

    Now, for some simple math.

    Lets say Zach averaged 30 attempts per game last year.

    He had 55% completion percentage, which means he averaged 16.5 receptions per day.

    If you dd those measly 4 over the mean drops as completions so that he was at the mean, not below it, but at it, he goes up to 20.5 receptions per game.

    That amounts to a 68.5% completion.

    This in no way says hes good, or going to be good, but it does show some statistical impact on drops

    Bro. 4 drops over the mean on the season, not each game.

    This is a problem that is dramatically overblown.

  9. 50 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

    First, let me answer your question - No, it would't be a good year...But it surely might cost the Jets a game or two.

    Agree.

    50 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

    No one is saying Zach Wilson was good last year - - but where instead of drops guys made a few tough plays - he would have been better.

    Some are saying absent drops he was good. Intellectually-honest fans like you are not saying that. He would’ve been better with league-mean drops but not materially-so (still ranked last).

    50 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

     

    Now, let's look at this a different way.

    If Zach does get better  (not superstar but just competent NFL QB play) and again we lead the league in drops which costs us a game or two - which is the different between making the playoffs or not - is it still not a problem?

    Less drops is good. No one said they weren’t. My position is that they are being asked to hold way too much water to cover for the QB. I’ve countered (with math) that even reducing drops last season to the league mean he’s still ranked last. Now we have people trying to spin up these “Jets drops were more impactful than other teams.” LOL. Most Jets games were blowouts. I’d think the Chargers, who, again, led the league in drops, had a lot more game-turning drops since.. ya know… they were in close games.

    50 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

    The only point I'm making is the Jets lead the league in WR drops last year,  that trend seemed to continue in the scrimmage and that should be reason for concern.

    Where is that stat? Chargers led the league in drops according to my data source. But yes, drops are subjective, which is one of the primary problems with using them to cover for a QB. Just as one example, they don’t account for straight up breadbasket drops and drops that also are the partial fault of the QB for a suboptimal delivery point or velocity.

    50 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

     Is it your contention that leading the league in dropped passes shouldn't be a concern and is no big deal?

     

     

    This is a straw man. You’re entitled to your opinion but not to mine.

  10. 25 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

    Sorry you’re not telling the real story.  It’s been reported they lead the league in drops.  Claiming it was 4 drops over the mean doesn’t say squat about how his ranking would change if the actual number of drops were high.  Just as you don’t know when and where the drops occurred, how they could have changed TD totals etc. and his rankings. 

     

    It’s not a claim that’s it’s 4 drops over the mean. If you start erasing drops for the Jets, you need to grant this same service for other QBs.

    It’s just a throwaway argument that somehow the Jets drops were “more impactful” and thus especially damaging to the QB. Even his most ardent, intellectually-honest supporters can admit he was not good last year. There is a difference between having hope and obfuscating reality. 

  11. 10 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

    Actually yeah.
     

     How many drives were killed by drops?  If those don’t stall the jets win more games.  Score more points.  

    Week 1 the Moore dropped bomb changes that game.   On and on.
     

      It would be a good rookie season with more yards - not only on the dropped passes but the extended drives.   
     

     

    If you think the drops last year is the difference between a terrible and a good QB performance, there’s just nothing left to discuss with you.

    You can have the last word, the next word, and every word forevermore.

    • Upvote 1
  12. 43 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

    Your statement may be factually correct, while the data isn't here - I surely believe you.   I'm arguing that that data point doesn't paint an accurate picture of the drop problem.  Context here is important - and 10% of Zach Wilson's passes were dropped, which was highest in the league by far.  

    It was a real problem last year - and continued into last nights scrimmage.  

    Of course drops will happen, but when you have a young, learning and often struggling QB - WR's that can help him out is what you need - not lead the league in drop %

     

    If the Jets passers have zero drops this year and the QB is exactly the same player as he was last year otherwise, will it be a good season?

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