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manuvsteal

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About manuvsteal

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  1. This is not a definitive "mind made up" blog. For all of the Trevor Lawrence losers that are going to say Trevor Lawrence or bust, or I'm crazy because I don't agree with you, I say you are a bunch of lemmings following each other as you all walk off a cliff, without giving any thought to why you even have the opinion that you have. I'm not saying Kyle Trask is the best QB in this draft class. I am only stating that I am starting to do my homework, watch condensed film of his throws from each game. I'm also looking at his stats game by game, and I'm intrigued. Again, for all the Trevor Lawrence fanboys, this blog is not for you. I could compare Trask to a guy like Joe Burrow in that if you look at Burrow's trajectory, he wasn't on the map as the #`1 pick at the beginning of the 2019 season, but by the end of the season he'd thrown the most TD's in a season in history, and was a # 1 pick in the NFL draft. If you take out the Trevor Lawrence lemmings love, and just look at the stats, particularly against the good competition, he's got a really good track record the past 2 seasons that he's been starting. Again, this is not a definitive "pick this guy", just my thoughts that Trev Lawrence is not the only game in town. As of right now, Trask is on track to match or break what Joe Burrow did last year. If Burrow was the barometer for success, Trask is in the vicinity. Including passing stats game by game the past 2 seasons for those of you that are destined to argue without knowing what you are talking about. Pay particular attention to his completion rate and success rate against top 25 competition. I see a guy who threw 25 TD's to 7 INT's last year, and has thrown 28 TD's against 3 INT's this year in the SEC. Really looking forward to him playing against Clemson and/or Alabama to see how he holds up. Right now he's trending as a 2nd round pick, but I'd bet he's a mid 1st rounder by the end of the college football season. If the Jets were to trade down and stockpile more picks, he's a player I'd be interested in, even over guys like Justin Fields. Reports are that he is a born leader, and has a super work ethic, which at this point everyone says about their QB, so I take that with a grain of salt. Still needs to see how he spins the ball against certain coverages, his decision making, and how he deals with certain scenarios1. As of right now I like the dude as I'm not sold that Trev Lawrence is the answer. Date Opponent Surface Result Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att TD Int Rating 09/26/20 @ Mississippi Grass W 51-35 42 30 71.4 416 9.9 6 0 201.77 10/03/20 South Carolina Grass W 38-24 29 21 72.4 268 9.2 4 1 188.65 10/10/20 @ 5 Texas A&M Grass L 38-41 32 23 71.9 312 9.8 4 0 195.03 10/31/20 Missouri Grass W 41-17 36 21 58.3 345 9.6 4 1 169.94 11/07/20 + 13 Georgia Grass W 44-28 43 30 69.8 474 11.0 4 1 188.41 11/14/20 Arkansas Grass W 63-35 29 23 79.3 356 12.3 6 0 250.71 Totals 211 148 70.1 2171 10.3 28 3 197.52 Date Opponent Surface Result Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att TD Int Rating 08/24/19 + Miami (Fla.) Grass W 24-20 Did not play 09/07/19 Tenn.-Martin Grass W 45-0 5 4 80.0 40 8.0 1 0 213.20 09/14/19 @ Kentucky Turf W 29-21 13 9 69.2 126 9.7 0 0 150.64 09/21/19 Tennessee Grass W 34-3 28 20 71.4 293 10.5 2 2 168.61 09/28/19 Towson Grass W 38-0 20 18 90.0 188 9.4 2 0 201.96 10/05/19 14 Auburn Grass W 24-13 31 19 61.3 234 7.5 2 0 145.98 10/12/19 @ 1 LSU Grass L 28-42 39 23 59.0 310 7.9 3 1 145.99 10/19/19 @ South Carolina Grass W 38-27 33 21 63.6 200 6.1 4 1 148.49 11/02/19 + 4 Georgia Grass L 17-24 33 21 63.6 257 7.8 2 0 149.06 11/09/19 Vanderbilt Grass W 56-0 37 25 67.6 363 9.8 3 2 165.93 11/16/19 @ Missouri Turf W 23-6 35 23 65.7 282 8.1 2 0 152.25 11/30/19 Florida St. Grass W 40-17 41 30 73.2 343 8.4 3 0 167.59 12/30/19 + Virginia Grass W 36-28 39 24 61.5 305 7.8 1 1 130.57 Totals 354 237 66.9 2941 8.3 25 7 156.09
  2. You can be mad all you want. I don't really care. I'm a Darnold fan still, and hope he captains this team for years. The 1st round has a percentage of success in the 1st round, so maybe Lawrence works, and maybe he won't. For those of you on the Lawrence bandwagon, if he works, I'll be happy. If he doesn't work, remember your conviction today as you call for his head in a year or two. Bandwagon jumping ass fans.
  3. All responses, and still no answers to my question. What does success look like, and what does failure look like? Looking for numbers, stats, wins/losses, etc.
  4. This is not really a draft topic, but more of a we're already in the 2021 season hypothetical question. What if the Jets draft Trevor Lawrence and he stinks? I don't mean horrible, but borderline stinks. For example 2700 yards 15 TD/15 interceptions in his rookie year. Then he follows it up with a 2022 season of 19TD/13 INT in his sophomore season along with 3,000 yards. Do you try to trade him in year 3? I only ask because Sam Darnold put up 17TD/15INT and followed with 19TD/13TD in his second season. For those that hold Darnold to a standard that he should be traded for Lawrence while he was throwing to Chris Hogan, Braxton Berrios, Jeff Smith, Josh Malone this year, what would the bar be for Trevor Lawrence if he's throwing to 3 starting caliber receivers? I'm not looking for an argument per se. I am looking for an honest fans assessment of what it would mean if Trevor Lawrence had Sam Darnold's equivalency of success? Continue building around him, or cut him loose? What is the bar to say Lawrence is successful or not the QB of the future?
  5. I think you're jumping the gun a little bit. If the GM changed every year, the Jets would never have a winning team . Also, you're looking at things in hindsight and saying you could have done better. Look at it this way. All 32 team passed on Tyler Biadasz at least a few times. The Cowboys are a 2-7 team. So although I agree with you on selecting him 4th, his impact towards winning games is not significant. A QB however, has more value towards winning, and you could make the argument that James Morgan should have started the 3 games that Joe Flacco lost. You also mentioned the offensive linemen underperforming. George Fant has 1 penalty and 2 sacks surrendered this year. Brandon Shell has 4 penalties and 3 sacks. Also look at the money to re-sign Shell, an aging and poor run blocker in Kelvin Beachum, and Joe Douglas mostly made the right calls. Was he perfect? No. But he made the right calls with those two examples, he added Cameron Clark who you can't evaluate yet, and he added guys that were higher rated for lower salaries and shorter terms so that he could build the line slowly. It's not a one year fix, that would be short sighted. Last thing he did was he's added 27 draft picks in 3 years. He's added about 10 draft picks in the first 3 rounds as well. Now he can draft more linemen early, more playmakers. Overall, he's done a great job managing the cap, adding more talented players to the roster for the future, and being flexible. It's just Jets fans who have unrealistic expectations of a GM fixing everything in a year that don't seem to see that.
  6. I agree with you, but you're going to get a lot of garbage from most fans for your thoughts. Most fans look from game to game, and cast judgement. Lets say Darnold averages 2 or 3 TD's the remainder of the season for the last 7 games which is not out of the question. Same people saying you are crazy will be commenting Darnold is the future. I don't know if he is good, great, average, or bad because it's been hard to evaluate him. The next 7 games should be telling however.
  7. One of the thoughts I've had recently is why do the Jets need to sell off assets and try to make a decision? For example, in 2004 the Chargers had the exact same decision as the Jets have now. The Chargers kept Drew Brees, drafted Philip Rivers, and started Philip Rivers a year later. In my mind, trading Sam Darnold for a 2nd round pick is not worth the draft capital when you consider the Jets history over the last 20 years of 2nd round picks that have been drafted. It makes more sense if the Jets have the 1st pick to trade down a slot, and pick up an extra 2nd rounder. Even if the Jets select Justin Fields at pick 2, they could still start Sam Darnold, and give Fields the year or half year to get acclimated. The extra 2nd round pick it would take to trade down from pick 1 to pick 2 would net the Jets the same result as if they'd traded Darnold. This has multiple positive outcomes in my mind. If the team is still not good next season, it would be Darnold and not Justin Fields to not have to worry about messing him up psychologically and/or damaging him. It prevents the Jets fans, media, and everyone else from the stigma of "here we go again" messing up another young QB. Darnold plays anywhere from up to trade deadline next year, or to end of season. If he proves he's bad with a better supporting cast, the Jets still have a few time points to trade him off. Now lets say the Jets play well next season. If the Jets are good and Darnold plays well, or even at an all-pro level, it gives the Jets two great QB's and the Chargers Drew Brees dilemma. Do we keep him or do we trade him at the end of year? It gives the Jets one additional year to evaluate Darnold, and it costs literally nothing whether they are a good or bad team next season. If Darnold were a top 5 QB I'd keep him and extend a contract. If Darnold is anywhere around 10th rated to middle of the pack or worse, I'd trade him. We've seen the positive impact sitting even a few games your rookie year had on Tua, Justin Herbert, Desean Watson and how that helps to acclimate young QB's learning the playbook, offense, and speed of the NFL. If the goal is to put your young QB in the best position possible, I think the answer is to keep Darnold and draft a young QB and evaluate both next season. I'd let go of Joe Flacco, and take the training wheels off. The Jets would then have two throws at the dartboard next year in terms of leadership and evaluating the QB of the present/future.
  8. You are all missing the point. The film you are viewing shows you two things. Trevor Lawrence is good when running RPO's with one read, and no real pass defense. He is also good running the ball. My argument is when is he going to have those two scenerios in the NFL? When will he drop back, throw to his first receiver, and have no defender within 1`0 feet of the man? When will he be able to run over 260 pound linebackers? He can't do either of those things. When you take those out, he is not an accurate quarterback who can do things QB's need to do to succeed. If you want to have this conversation in a year's time, you will see a player who's been covered up by a system, and talent advantage that you can't duplicate in the pros. Show me a tight window that he can throw into, or a 10 yard out or in where he throws with accuracy and anticipation. You can't That is the point.
  9. Sometimes humans can be creatures of habit that just do, and don't think to ask why. While all of you have made your feelings known, the Jets should tank for Trevor, have any of you actually watched him play? Before you say I'm out of my mind watch the link I attached, and tell me what your feelings are again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Dr4rB8oAoo When Trevor had to play teams with legitimate NFL level talent in Ohio State, I think this is a pretty good barometer of who he will be in the NFL in terms of production, and the decisions he will make. In this game he threw passes against Jeff Okudah, and Damon Arnette who were 1st round corners, and typical of the type of players he will see on Sundays. He threw 33 passes, completing 18 and, all but about 7 of them were run pass option plays (RPO) where he had one read. He completed 54% of his passes and was mostly inaccurate when he had to throw into tight windows, come off his initial read, or move around in the pocket. In this game he always threw to his first read, and only checked to his second read twice by my count. Of the passes he completed, the receivers often have 2-3 yards of seperation, and it is exremely rare that he will have that type of window in the NFL. When he had to throw into tight windows he was inaccurate with the exception of two passes, one of which was a nice pass dropped by his receiver in the end zone, the other was caught. In short, Lawrence is a guy who locks on to one read, throws it and completes because there is so much open space. When he has to do anything other than set his feet and he has to climb the pocket, throw on the move, or throw with anticipation, there is nothing to suggest he can do it. However, people still clamor for him as the Jets savior? Last is his legs. The dude has wheels, and that is what saved Clemson in the game I linked. However, how many games is a gangly 220 pound quarterback going to run head first lowering his shoulder and absorbing contact? His main strength in NCAA football is something he won't be able to do in NFL football without getting injured. Many of you may see Trevor Lawrence as the savior of the NY Jets and the number 1 pick, and you are entitled to your opinion. If you do think that, I implore you to watch the film, and tell me the guy you see in this video (against good competition), will be successful playing the same style as Clemson has boosted his stock to. I'm not saying this guy is Tim Tebow, because Tebow couldn't throw. I do think he's the most overhyped QB coming out of college since Tebow. Great college QB, suspect NFL prospect. Clemson has fooled you all by putting lipstick on a decent but not great QB. Prove me wrong.

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