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Posts posted by hailtoyourvictor

  1. 3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    That being said, I still expect a monster year out of Robinson.  Having a balanced attack will drop Bortles' gaudy numbers a good bit, but it won't necessarily hurt Robinson.  In fact, he might be even more efficient.  And none of that impacts Robinson's elite status. 

    That's how I see it. They admittedly shouldn't need to pass as much as last year, but when they do pass they should be more efficient. Robinson probably won't see 153 targets again, but he should catch a higher % of the targets he does see. 

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  2. Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

    And vice versa; when the defense helps keep/get leads, they'll use Ivory late in games to close out opponents.

    If the Jaguars have leads that late in the game, it's more often than not going to have something to do with the passing game. The Jags won 5 games last year and in those 5 games Allen Robinson had 421 yards and 5 TDs. The idea that winning more games means Robinson will be used less is demonstrably false.

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  3. 1 minute ago, JiF said:

    By no means am I taking anything away from Robinson.  He's amazing.  

    You don't sign Ivory to the contract the did unless you have intention of using him, significantly.  You don't draft a RB in the 2nd unless you plan to use him.

    i live in Jax.  I hear the interviews. They want a ball controlled offense and want to put a focus on running the ball.  Bottles was hit more than any other QB in the league and he's back breaking turnover prone.  I'm not saying they are going ground and pound but they are putting a huge emphasis on establishing a strong run game. 


    A 2 year 10 mil contract with the type of cap space the Jaguars have isn't some huge contract.


    You don't have a QB #3 overall, followed by TWO WRs in the 2nd, then sign a TE to a monster deal and extend an UDFA WR to a big contract if you don't plan to pass. Yes, the Jaguars are going to try to establish a run game, but that run game some help the passing game become more efficient. Also, keep in mind that an improved run game = more first downs and sustained drives. Longer drives = more total plays. More total plays helps offset the volume concerns when talking about a more balanced offense.

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  4. Also, a point that you fail to mention is that teams KNEW that the Jaguars had to throw the ball last season. They had no run game and were trailing more often than not. Despite being able to sit back and double team Robinson, Robinson beasted his way to 1,400 and 14. If teams have to start respecting the run more, don't you think that could help the passing game become more efficient?


    Statistically, Robinson was the best deep threat in the NFL last season. Now the Jaguars can actually utilize play action? Nice.

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  5. On 7/25/2016 at 1:25 PM, JiF said:


    I'm not sure he produces the way he did last season. The contract they gave Ivory makes me think they plan on asking less of Bortles and put more of an emphasis on the running game.  That and like you said, Lee is healthy (who might actually be the most talented WR on that roster), Thomas is healthy too and him and Bortles were coming on strong last season.

    They also have a bunch of guys who I think can ball at WR; Rashard Greene, Bryan Walters, Arrelious Benn...they even have this dude Shaq Evans. ;-)

    Either way, Robinson has a long way to go before he's in the Julio, Antonio, Odell conversation. 


    Ivory was brought in to help the Jaguars horsecrap short yardage rushing and provide solid depth at RB (Yeldon missed some time last year and Denard isn't a good RB2). Ivory was not brought in to neuter Bortles. Also, Ivory's contract wasn't really as much as the talking heads believe. It basically breaks down to 2 years, 10 mil (5mil per) which isn't a lot considering how much spending money the Jaguars had this offseason.

  6. 23 hours ago, JiF said:

    I actually think he'll take a pretty decent to significant dip from a production standpoint this season.  They signed Kelvin Beachum and Chris Ivory to improve their running game. They drafted Yeldon last year in the 2nd.  They want to run the ball more and control the clock and take pressure off Bortles who does tend to make mistakes when pressing. Bradley is a defensive guy, he doesnt like shoot outs and doesnt like playing from behind.  They're going to be in closer games this year because their D is twice as good.

    I'd say easily over 60% of the Jags offense production came playing from behind last season.  That's not to say the dont have a potent offense, they do.  But things are different when you're playing catch up every game. 

    Robinson's stat line when trailing: 56 receptions, 1,041 yards and 11 TD's. 

    This season, they will be starting with a healthy Julius Thomas (who they didnt really have at 100% till the 2nd half of the season) and Marquise Lee (who they really havent seen at all and drafted 20 spots ahead of Robinson).  Plus, they cant keep Rashard Greene off the field either.  And Allen Hurns just signed for some serious Cheddar.

    So while we can all agree Robinson is a great talent.  I'd pump the breaks before crowing him the best of the best. 

    80 catches on 153 targets isnt exactly amazing, either. 



    They drafted Bortles #3 overall, drafted Lee in the 2nd and then traded up to draft ARob in the 2nd, signed Julius Thomas to a huge contract, and just gave Allen Hurns a huge extension. The Jaguars are built around the passing game. Ivory was brought in to help an abysmal rushing attack (especially so in short yardage situations), but make no mistake that this team is built around the passing game. Now I know rebuttal to this, because I've heard it many times this offseason, is that there will be too many mouths to feed. However, regardless of how many weapons the Jaguars have brought in, the best player on the roster is Allen Robinson and he's going to be utilized as such.


    Robinson's stats in quarters 1 through 3: 1,021 yards and 9 TDs. Let's not run with a false narrative that Robinson was some sort of garbage time hero. His quarters 1-3 production extrapolates to a season of 1,361 yards and 12 TDs.


    80 catches on 153 targets isn't amazing, but that is largely in part to Bortles using Robinson as his "throw away" target. Rather than throwing the ball out of bounds, Bortles would heave the ball to wherever Robinson was. Remember the Jags vs Jets game last year?




    or this?





    Plays like that that Robinson doesn't haul in aren't really a fault of his. As Bortles improves his accuracy and decision making, Robinson's catch % will improve because that is really the only thing keeping that catch % down. His catch radius is elite and he was very good hands.

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  7. I liked that we didn't reach for skill positions we have holes in just to fill holes.  Reach for a player and you've still got a hole; it's just shallower.  Either way you're winning dick.  Take the best player on the board, and make sure that board doesn't have guards and centers at the top no matter how great of a prospect any of them is.  If someone doesn't pan out, then he doesn't pan out.  And prepare yourself now for everyone not working out; no one drafts 8 players and all 8 of them are still with the team in 3 years.  


    Only thing I'm luke-warm about in hindsight might be Campbell. Not because I dislike him as a prospect, but because guys who are changing positions typically go undrafted.  Meaning we could have likely had him by trading down and picking him with a late 7th, or picking him up as an UDFA.  So while it's round 6 and that's pretty nitpicky, he was pick #178 not pick #200.  On the one hand you have to be true to your board, and take the next best player on your list.  But when drafting you should also be aware of where he's expected to be drafted.  Buffalo may have loved their sucky new QB more than anyone else in the draft, but that doesn't mean they had to burn the #15 pick in the country to get him.  (Same with other reach picks made by the Giants and Dallas and others).  You can take someone else who won't be there a round later and still get your guy.  Maybe I'm wrong.  Just don't know how many teams are looking to grab a project in a draft that still had solid mid-round type prospects on the board in round 6.  Naturally, if this guy turns into our RT for even just a few years, no one - including me - will lament on a point that we maybe or probably could have gotten him later.


    Favorite pick was Geno because it ends the Sanchez mistake.  Or I think that's what it means.  Accomplish that, plus it's not like the kid is devoid of talent.  He might actually be as good as he was once projected to be.  If he pans out all the other picks - even other good to great ones - are gravy, frankly.


    The Saints were very high on Campbell and drafted a smilar player at pick 183. I'm not sure Campbell makes it past 183 if the Jets don't take him at 178. The Lions were also big on him (he went to HS in Detroit, too) and had a pick at 199. I hear what you are saying, but if the Jets wanted Campbell, they probably had to take him at that spot.

  8. Out of curiosity, what is the state of your offensive line? Do you think Campbell has a decent shot at landing on the 53 man roster? You guys are more likely to use him at guard than tackle, I assume?

  9. I know most of you probably don't know much about Campbell, and I wouldn't expect you to. I have watched every Michigan game for the past umpteen years and have some ties to the Michigan Footall program. That being said, this is my breakdown of your 6th round pick.


    Campbell has 1st round size and strength. He has 1st round talent. He has had 6th round production. He dominated high school by simply being stronger than everybody and found out, the hard way, that doesn't fly in college. He needed to be worked with and taught fundementals (stance, pad level, etc.). The problem is, as most of you know, Rich Rodriguez completely neglected the defense. Take a look at the turn around Campbell has had under and NFL D Coordinator (Mattison). He has completely transformed his body and attitude and the results followed suit.


    Don't be fooled by the felony charge he had last year. You won't find a better personality. He was one of the most liked guys on the team last year. He tried to pull a Duke's of Hazard esque hood slide as a joke, but 340 pounds doesn't tread car hoods too well. There was no chance that felony charge was going to hold, and it didn't.


    Campbell's biggest issue in college was technique. He was not good at "playing low". A switch to offensive line might be huge, because 50% of the time you aren't trying to be low. If he plays guard for you guys, then that number increases (leverage isn't needed when you pull). He moves pretty well for a guy his size, so I think he will be fine with a transtion to guard.


    Lastly, he is very young. He was an early enrollee at Michigan and also graduated a semester early. He graduated with a 4 year degree from them Universtiy of Michigan in 3 1/2 years, at the age of 21.

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