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win4ever last won the day on October 1 2015

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  1. Great breakdown. I think the big problem lately has been the formation of super WR crops, where it's nearly impossible to determine how effective they are. Like when Tua was in college (or Mac Jones), they could literally pick any of the top 4 and there would be a decent chance the guy would be open. I was looking at the OSU tape, last year and this year, and the sheer amount of talent they have at WR is ridiculous. Smith-Njigba, Wilson, Olave, (and Williams the year before) are all match up nightmares in the sense that you aren't covering them one on one. I was trying to scout Wilson/Olave this year, and I almost felt like they played at half speed at times because they knew the other guy was getting the ball. You would see lazy routes because it was a quick pass the other way, and the defense couldn't really stop it anyway. Furthermore, these colleges are so good at creating open receivers via scheme that it's almost impossible to scout. I wasn't a big fan of Olave, because I felt like they schemed him open with mesh concepts and crossing routes on RPOs. In regards to Wilson/Moore, I think they are extremely similar players. Wilson is better at stacking his defender, and making sideline catches. Moore is better at coming out of his route stems, and more balanced in change of directions. However, they both win by setting up their defenders well, and are very nuanced route runners. They both attack the hips of defenders really well, and run a full route tree. The sad thing is that Mims fits perfectly as the third WR in this group, because of his size/speed, but he didn't seem motivated at all. I think the Shanahan system somewhat favors duplicity in their WR skills. We had the Rams with Kupp/Woods, both route technicians that got open because they could set up the defenders. Deebo/Ayuik are more YAC monsters that can create havoc with the ball in their hands. Cincy has a bit more traditional set up with Higgins/Chase but Chase was a generational talent with ties to the QB, so I'm not sure how much that played into the decision. I think the aspect that will really be interesting is the "triangle offense" if you will, between the two WRs plus the RB. If teams stack the box, these guys can really hurt you down the field, and if they play back, then Breece Hall could be a star.
  2. Yeah, it'd be Darnold vs. Wilson because I don't really believe in Brisset at all. They would have their QB for a decent part of the year, can rely mostly on Chubb like Darnold did with CMC. It's not ideal, but I'm guessing it's better than a disgruntled Baker on the team. I'm not sure who else even goes after Mayfield at this point. I thought the Steelers, but they just spent a first rd pick on an older QB, so I doubt they want him to sit much, and it's an inter-division trade. Only other team I can think of is the Seahawks.
  3. I thought he had trade value, but they got caught in the Watson cycle. If they traded Mayfield, without getting Watson, in a year where the QB draft was abysmal, they look dumb for tanking a possible contender. If they kept Mayfield, I think it would have been fine to bank on him possibly coming back from injury and then going from there. But they went all in on Watson, who most likely will be suspended, and tanked Mayfield's value in the process, and tanking this season anyway, without the picks for next year. Watson already screwed them over with the last minute switch (every indication was Atlanta). I think their big fear was him going to the Steelers and instantly becoming a solid starter, so they want to have some control. I still think a Mayfield/Darnold trade might end up happening, because at this point, there's no benefit of cutting him. Both on 5th year options, Darnold won't make any issues, and Mayfield offers more upside for the Panthers.
  4. The Baker Mayfield situation was handled so weirdly. He easily outplayed Sam Darnold, and his last healthy season was a top 15-ish QB, yet no one wants him. Darnold netting a 2nd and 4th, while Baker basically has to be cut is a bigger feather in Douglas' cap than the Adams trade at this point.
  5. Finally got my hands on some All-22, and have plenty of time recovering from surgery next week. I really wanted to break down Burks, but now I'm going between Burks/Pierce. From Youtube tapes, I'm really surprised by Burks lack of burst. I thought he was much more explosive on film than pretty much any of his numbers. I thought maybe he would re-do the 40 at his pro-day but he stood by it, even if disappointing, which makes me think that's the higher end of the spectrum that he expected. The lack of physical capabilities worry me because in college, you can scheme players open with ease, especially if you have a mobile QB (which he did). I don't know, if we draft him, I'll probably do a deeper dive I guess so I can talk myself into it.
  6. That's going to be hard to tell, I think we're still straddling the line of "athletic enough" to be mobile, but has elite arm strength to make up for it. Guys like Allen/Mahomes can bypass rules like throwing across the field because of their abilities, and I think more teams will look for that in QBs. It's just going to be really hard to tell, because the mental aspect of the deciphering the game is nearly impossible to scout. On a tangent, I wonder if that mixes in with OL now. If the stable pass protector isn't as needed as the more mobile guys that can create holes. Maybe it's not about maintaining a pocket, but creating lanes. I thought about it watching a Ravens/Steelers game, and it showed Hayward wasn't rushing around the edge as much. They were so fearful of Lamar stepping up and running through the C gap, that they didn't try to run around the edge. Would the implementation of mobile QBs, then change the dynamics of OL (especially OT) scouting? Do you want the guy that can hold you back consistently, or do you want the aggressive guy that can push you back to create holes for the QB to escape, but risk being beaten more often?
  7. I think there's a systemic change now, where teams are more enamored with tools than production in college. We saw it work out with Allen over Rosen, Murray replacing Rosen, Lamar, Mahomes, Herbert. Heck, there is no reason way Lance put anything on tape better than Fields/Mac Jones. Even the draft community being enamored by Wilson. 10 years ago, I don't think Wilson/Lance/Fields go ahead of Jones. He had the "production and enough talent angle, while winning on the big stage" resume to be picked higher. But teams seem to be on the clean slate approach, just wanting the tools, and then allowing their team to develop the QB and take out the bad tendencies. A very good example is Rodgers, coming out, he was basically all tools, and a weird delivery. They are doing the same approach with Love. You want athletes first now, be it running or big arm, and then build the mental side afterwards. I think the days of mentally prepared studs coming out of college ready are extremely rare, like a Joe Burrow recently. Look at Malik Willis getting hype now, this guy has some of the worst reads out there in the class, but there is first round hype on him because the raw athlete is too intriguing. The RPO system is so prevalent from pop warner on up that you really can't rely on production as much, but rather the tools. Can he make this read? Can he make this throw? I think that's what Miami is finding out about Tua, because he checks every other box. He's accurate, he's mobile, he has the production in college, but his arm just isn't there. There's only so much you can scheme up with a young QB. I think we are going to go the college way soon, more and more QBs are going to be duel threat studs rather than the pocket passer we're used to seeing, and that requires pure athleticism.
  8. The issue with Darnold highlights probably the biggest problem with QB scouting in general. It's the most important position in football, because it transcends athletic ability to such a degree that you can't confidently scout them consistently. Darnold's issues are mostly post-snap reads, where he just can't read a defense. It stems from the RPO based offenses in college, which dictate moves based on those reads. If X (unblocked defender) chases RB, pull back the ball the ball. If the safety moves down, first read is 1 receiver, if LB moves back, first read is 2 receiver. The QB isn't reading the defense, they are reading the situation. The issue here is that the unblocked defender essentially works out as a delayed blitz running free. When the defender realizes that the RB doesn't have the ball, he has a direct path to the QB, at which point it's make the throw or bail time. Ultimately, this forces the QB to either make a no-read throw, or run around the pocket. You just don't have the time to do anything else. Unfortunately, this means QBs aren't used to sitting in the pocket and making reads, they are used to pre-determined reads, and then improvising. They come to the NFL and realize those easy reads just aren't there, you have to understand defensive shells and make reads while in the pocket. Darnold is very jittery in the pocket because he's not accustomed to sitting in the pocket and going through progressions. There's a sense of calmness with someone like Brady who goes from one progression to another. There's a sense of panic from someone like Darnold, who's hoping the next progression is open. We all made fun of Gase when reports came out he didn't like Darnold to audible, but part of the reasoning is that he just gets fooled on pre-snap looks, and checks into bad plays. Ultimately, with McCaffery, you saw a ton of checkdowns because he wasn't making the reads down the field. Once he got hurt, that was over. Ideally, you want QBs to learn this trait with good OL that teaches them to stay in the pocket. Even more importantly, there has to be a coverage eraser as a receiver. Someone that can beat the defense even if the defense has called the correct play. We see this a ton with Allen/Williams for the Chargers, where they can beat good coverage. Same with Diggs, Hopkins, Hill/Kelce, Chase/Higgins/, etc. You want those weapons so when you make the wrong read, you can still survive. I think that's what separates good QBs from bad ones, they can survive the bad reads by getting the ball to their playmakers. The bad ones get sacked or intercepted to kill drives. Darnold never had that to develop, so it's no surprise he hasn't improved. It's a combination of both things going wrong for him.
  9. Berrios had a pro-bowl season as a returner, and we were Trevor Lawrence deciding to run out of bounds away from picking No. 1 in this draft. While Berrios is good, PR/KR are mostly interchangeable, unless you have a special Devin Hester type on the team. I'd much rather take that money and spend it on more important positions, be it signing a player, or signing a better player to more money that is available through the cheap PR/KR.
  10. A late round draft pick, just like Berrios. For example, when factoring in contracts, I would take someone like Dazz Newsome over Berrios for next year. This year, a guy like Velus Jones Jr. He's not going to crack the top 3 WR spot as a rookie, but provides similar skills to Berrios, and he'll be a late round draft pick. I'd rather use the money elsewhere.
  11. I might be in the minority, but I let Berrios walk. 4th WR/KR/PR types are exactly the areas you try to fill with cheap talent. Remember when everyone was upset Andre Roberts? I don't want to overpay for a guy at that point, let him go somewhere else for anything over $4 million. If our 3rd WR is Berrios, we have major problems.
  12. I'll take Cooper as WR1. His stats are similar in 3 year average to Diggs before the deal to Buffalo, and he's only 1 year older.
  13. I haven't gotten All-22 yet, but he's one of those guys that is interesting in terms of physical capabilities (I think he'll measure high, run fast) and get hyped. I didn't like the tape I've seen so far though: Pro: He can high point the ball, and knows how to use his size as an advantage. Physical profile is ideal, will have size/speed combination Con: The only real route that I saw him get open on a consistent basis was the double move, fake slant and go type moves. He has a reset step with his back foot at the snap, we talked about the same issue last year with Bateman. He loses time at the snap because he resets his back foot. He doesn't just give away his intended route, he practically draws a map for the cornerback. Very limited in terms of route technique, will turn his head towards where he's going on a slant or out, and slows down out of cuts. He doesn't read the defender much at all. There's an interception against Georgia this year (I think it ended up a pick 6) where the slot safety (or CB?) is playing well off the line. The defender moves prior to the snap, but Ross runs a very lazy slant expecting the defender to be far away. The defender undercuts it and takes it to the house. He didn't threaten the defender at all with route set up. He could have just exploded off the line and stopped the defender in their tracks, but he casually ran to a spot. It looked like something Mims would do this year. He seems to have a lot of rapid foot fire moves at the stem of a route, but that doesn't work nearly as well on the NFL level, unless you mix it up. All he's doing is slowing down, and NFL CBs would just wait until he makes a move one way or another, and react. I don't see the separation quite as much on in-rhythm passes. Saw manufactured touches, and extended plays where he got open, but that primary read/beats coverage in stride with QB seemed to be missing. Overall: I love his physical profile, and I thought he'd be a monster after his freshman debut. I'm not impressed with him, but I would take a shot in the 4th or so just because he has so much potential. So far, I like Alex Pierce or Christian Watson more than Ross, which is something I thought I would never say.
  14. I don't think the hiring process being evaluated is going anywhere because that's nearly impossible to prove. It's impossible to prove in other industries in business where resumes can be compared, so rarely anything as subjective as what makes a good coach. I think the main problem is the lack of front office personnel that are non-white because these coaching hires are all subjective. I'll use Gase as an example. Take out locker room fit, and pure Xs and Os, he probably does really well on the whiteboard. He has a plan for developing QB, how to breakdown film, etc. He's an idiot in media relations and locker room culture, and doesn't know how to adjust from his plan for players that don't quite fit. Rex Ryan has great media relations and locker room culture, but he doesn't know offense if it was baked into his brownies. Todd Bowles was too much of a players coach, didn't actually know how to lead a team, a prime example of Peter's principle. In all three cases, there's a subjective analysis aspect to the hire that we got wrong. It's the mandate to lose that is really the possible smoking gun because there's millions riding on these games now with the general public, and every little move is going to be criticized. I understand the desire for tanking, because the game incentivizes it, and it's unavoidable. Even if you have a lottery system, there are going to be teams tanking to get into the lottery. It would then have the pitfalls of the lottery being rigged as well. There's a part of me that thought the Jags tanked against the Jets this year, the goal line play calls were just dumb. I'm sure the Giants were tanking as well. Look at the Eagles last year, they basically tanked the last game. Got a higher pick, which they traded out of and got a bounty. There's always an incentive to tank if you look at your team needs specifically, no matter the fan rhetoric "Love of the game" and what not. The players don't have much incentive because their paychecks are based on performance rather than wins. I wonder if there is going to be an investigation into this because that's going to change gambling considerably. There are games that are taken off the betting floor if there are major injury concerns (if star player is questionable), and I wonder if certain teams vying for the bottom of the draft might have their spreads eliminated. Interesting off-season so far, and I'm here to watch it all burn for the Dolphins.
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