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Everything posted by win4ever

  1. I think there's a lot of factors that played into the bad stats, that have been partially fixed. 1. None of the defenses were scared of the tight ends last year, which meant a ton of floating coverages from defenses. If you have a stud like Kittle, a defender or more is dedicated to him, so that defender has to read the TE before worrying about anything else. This is why you will sometimes see stud TEs wide open on delayed releases because the dedicated defender assumes the guy is blocking and hurries to a different position. When you have average guys, it's still the same but not quite as rigid. When you have absolute losers like we did, the defense doesn't care, they play it the opposite way. They have defenders is space that make up the ground IF the TE releases. The delayed release, chip block, or just regular routes are useless because we had guys that could legitimately be covered by defensive ends. I don't think I've ever seen a group that couldn't catch or run this badly. They've fixed it to the point that it's average now, which fits in much better with the offense. The wide zone running scheme needs good tight ends, that can block and catch because both the passing and running game feeds from it. If you are playing defense against the run, you better commit to getting around the TE, which works wonders for play action because the TE can chip release behind you, for easy passes. If you are playing defense for the pass, you can no longer be aggressive on the run blocking either, allowing the TE to set the edge. I'm not saying this year is going to solve everything, but there's a reason the Jets went heavy on in-line TEs rather than an Evan Engram or Greg Dulcich because they need the versatility. I think there's a good chance they carry 4 TEs on the team, especially if Cager/Yeboah step up. 2. There's a big infusion of option routes around the league, and I think the Pats were really the first to master it. Essentially, WRs have the option to choose their routes at the stem based on the defense. A simple version would be an in-route against man where you continue to run, and an in-route against zone where you sit. A more complicated one would be deal with revolving safeties, as if one of them blitzed, the WR may have an option to cut into the vacated spot at the stem. Both of these require timing with the WR plus knowledge of how they read that play. You watch someone like Gronk with Brady, they are on the same page when it comes to these option routes because they know exactly what the other is going to read, which allows Brady to anticipate, instead of waiting to see the move first. You would see this often in NE where if they had a miscommunication, Brady would lecture the receiver on the route because it's not the receiver screwing up a 10 yard slant, but not reading the safety and turning that slant into an in route to under-cut the safety over the top. I think this is being fixed as well, because of all the throwing camps Wilson has been engaged in. The other aspect was that, it was a new system for everyone last year. Corey Davis, Moore, pretty much everyone were new to system along with the QB, so they weren't making the same reads. There's an interception by JC Jackson in the first Pats game, where Wilson throws it behind Corey Davis, gets tipped and intercepted. The problem with the play is that the LB (or safety, can't really tell) blitzes up the middle, and Davis is the first read. He's supposed to run a 10 or so yard in-route. However, once the safety blitzed, he needs to cut that yardage short because he no longer needs to run beyond the LB/S zone, the middle of the field is open. Davis still runs his route without the option, Wilson has a free runner up the middle, and makes a bad throw. If Davis makes the in route into a 5 yard slant route, he has inside leverage on JC Jackson. However, Davis runs the route as if setting up the in-cut, which allows Jackson to undercut it. I think a second year together with Davis/Moore/Berrios will go a long way. 3. Wilson needs to understand the levels of the field, and that you can't just call 4 verticals because you have a strong arm. This goes back to like Madden days. I remember playing Madden in like 2005 or so, and you could literally call a Hail Mary on every play, just wait until the WRs run all the way down the field, and then run back towards you to make the easy 40 yard completion. Over the years, that became impossible. While not nearly the same level of adjustment, it's similar to throwing constantly down the field at BYU vs the NFL. Just because you have a strong arm doesn't mean you can out throw the defense consistently. As we saw with Mike White, you have to take the underneath stuff consistently, so defenses have to pick and choose which areas to defend. Wilson didn't realize this early, so he would throw it into tight windows where his guys wouldn't make the play. Later on in the year, he realized it but had no one to get open, which is why I think he started to rush more often. I remember this being an issue with Fitzpatrick as well when he was around, especially a game against the Eagles. They would consistently rush 3 in a wide formation, drop back into coverage, basically daring Fitz to run, and he would just bounce around the pocket. All Fitz had to do was read the nose tackle and run in the A/B gap around it for open field. In the same sense, the Jets didn't have the players to threaten all levels of the field, which is probably why they were in on Hill. They needed someone to threaten the screen/deep pass game along with Moore. I think their set up now is much better than last year, albeit not ideal. Moore/WIlson can threaten screen pass or deep, depending on the depth of the CB. Davis/CJ/Conklin can threaten the middle of the field. Carter/Hall out of the backfield. They can actually force the defense to cover all areas of the field, which allows for mismatches, and misdirection to be effective. Wilson still has a bunch of issues to work around, especially his pre-snap reads and pocket integrity. But I can't remember a time where the Jets actually built the offense to suit their QB. Possibly Sanchez when they got Edwards/Holmes/Keller but they didn't sustain that one.
  2. I agree, the presence of new cases could complicate issues for Watson. I thought the trade deal after the grand jury decision on the first wave of cases indicated that they thought it was over, and could just presume a 1 year punishment as the worst case scenario. He even got the contract structured to the point that sitting out this year doesn't mean anything. However, I think the only way this remains a issue two years from now is if audio/video leaks because the NFL is going to pressure basically everyone they can to bury this. I thought the NBA ref game fixing scandal would change the sport, but here we are with refs having the same level of power to influence the league because they made sure it slowly went off the news cycle. Ideally, I hope Watson is suspended for 2 years, and the Browns void his contract so he can lose all that money. But considering he got the richest contract after all of this (plus giving up 3 first round draft picks) seems to indicate the NFL really doesn't care or believes this will stick. I don't know when they would announce anything at this point. I was sure it was going to be the pre-season before the latest accusations came forth, so now I don't know. I doubt he plays this year though.
  3. I love the nickname "Groper Cleveland" for Watson. This move reeks disaster but I feel like the NFL is going to take it on the chin by suspending him for a year, and hope things get forgotten in a year. Hell, there were a few fanbases fully committing to mental gymnastics when Watson was available. Hell, people were claiming Tyreek being a despicable human 2 years ago, and we going gaga over him this off-season. I think Watson gets suspended for a year, and then the NFL hope we all forget. The Browns fans won't care if he performs. It's sad that is the state of sports but I really doubt Watson's career is over. That trade is absolutely horrible for the Browns though.
  4. I watch a few as well, but it's hard to get a consensus because team fits vary wildly for prospects. I think these guys that mostly do it for YT style do it with teams/philosophies they are familiar with, which causes variation. I've found myself looking more for fantasy guys, which tend to skew more towards analytics, and then film breakdowns that deal more with scouting. Then just combine them with my own scouting, and go from there. Streams I've watched so far: The Franchise Guy Bootleg Football Bleacher Report
  5. This is actually a pretty interesting question. I wasn't a fan of the Wilson pick (I had Fields higher) and thought both Lance/Wilson were talent picks. The talent is amazing, but you aren't picking them on production/tape against Fields. Now the caveat is that none of us have access to the mental/leadership side of the puzzle. I don't know if Wilson killed the whiteboards and Fields drew geometric shapes, so that is the great unknown to keyboard scouting. I'm coming around on Wilson, because my big reasoning was that Wilson is a middle of the first round type pick. My comparison was Jordan Love/Ryan Fitzpatrick, but a guy that needs to sit a year and learn the system. He had way too many issues to come in right away and start. The 49ers followed that plan with Lance, we didn't. I wasn't a fan of taking a guy at 2, who would essentially have to waste 1 year of the cheap contract period as a rebuilding year. However, as with any talent pick, you look for improvements, and adjustments to NFL defenses. Wilson started to make progress as the year went on, showed that the game was slowing down for him, and his mechanics started to get in order. Now with the given progression, I think Lawrence/Wilson/Fields/Jones are extremely close. Lawrence: I'm a little worried about him, because talent wise, he went to a place that actually had people around him. Marvin Jones/Chark/Shenault/Robinson isn't a bad combination, albeit Chark got injured early. That offense was very simple to operate because it was just an extension of the Clemson scheme, but Lawrence didn't seem to adjust. Pederson is a better offensive coach, but he runs a vertical system, and that's a big adjustment for Lawrence. Fields, I still love the talent. Last year, Simms was down on him, and now he has him right behind Wilson (ahead of Lawrence) because his deep passing is quite underrated. Unfortunately, they are giving him the Mike McCagnan QB development plan, of just totaling ignoring any possible help. Jones: He gives me a lot of Pennington vibes after last year. He's not going to carry you against an elite defense, but he limits mistakes and is very good at making reads. Ceiling is higher than initially anticipated, but also has the most physical limits. Right now, I would flip a coin between Wilson/Fields at No. 1, and then really think about Lawrence/Jones. I have no idea what to think of Lance.
  6. They did, they had to pick it up last year. The 5th year option has to be decided after the 3rd year and before the 4th year. It's the same time frame for Darnold, which was why his was picked up last year as well.
  7. win4ever

    2023 Wrs

    Demus Jr was a guy that I was kinda interested in this year, if he had declared. I figured his injury would put him in the middle rounds, albeit I don't know about this mini-scouting report here. He's not really a YAC guy, his tape reminds me a good amount of Denzel Mims actually. Size/Speed but not extremely shifty after the catch. Jackson-Njigba is ridiculous on his route shiftiness, although I think he's going to high for us since I doubt we spend a first rd pick on WR again next year. I'm not sure about his long speed, as he seemed to get caught from behind a few times, but he's just so damn good at getting open. Jarret intrigues me a decent amount as well, really like his speed.
  8. As much as I disliked Wilson as the pick last year, I do think he's poised to break out at a significant amount this year. After he came back from injury, he was very good at limiting his bad throws, the ones he had to get out of his system because they worked against the below average college guys. I think my comparison was Jordan Love/Ryan Fitzpatrick type, but he needed time to learn. Last year, he showed very good improvement in most areas, even though it doesn't really show up on the stats. One of his major issues last year, was the corner strike throw as I describe it. Essentially, as a baseball term, he would would try to paint the corner of the strike zone as the perfect pitch. He didn't understand that he needed to move on from that option, rather showing his Fitzpatrick side by trying to make that perfect throw. I tried to write an series on his improvement, but the GamePass All-22 is just garbage now with the interface, and I can't even figure out how to slow it down so I can point out what I'm talking about. The other aspect that helps is that he had no help at all last year from his receivers. Be it drops, lazy routes, or just pure lack of talent, it just wasn't there. Barring injury, I'd bet the over on pretty much all stats for Wilson this year.
  9. Mims to me looked like the kid that was forced to go to school with a fever because parents couldn't take a day off from work. He looked so disinterested, that I honestly thought he had long Covid or something. I think it goes a long way if he shows commitment, because his skill set compliments Wilson/Moore very well. Having 3 threats to deep passes, can really change the defense, especially with his size. I still believe in him, and I think the Jets do as well, because this was a good year to invest in a late round WR.
  10. Great breakdown. I think the big problem lately has been the formation of super WR crops, where it's nearly impossible to determine how effective they are. Like when Tua was in college (or Mac Jones), they could literally pick any of the top 4 and there would be a decent chance the guy would be open. I was looking at the OSU tape, last year and this year, and the sheer amount of talent they have at WR is ridiculous. Smith-Njigba, Wilson, Olave, (and Williams the year before) are all match up nightmares in the sense that you aren't covering them one on one. I was trying to scout Wilson/Olave this year, and I almost felt like they played at half speed at times because they knew the other guy was getting the ball. You would see lazy routes because it was a quick pass the other way, and the defense couldn't really stop it anyway. Furthermore, these colleges are so good at creating open receivers via scheme that it's almost impossible to scout. I wasn't a big fan of Olave, because I felt like they schemed him open with mesh concepts and crossing routes on RPOs. In regards to Wilson/Moore, I think they are extremely similar players. Wilson is better at stacking his defender, and making sideline catches. Moore is better at coming out of his route stems, and more balanced in change of directions. However, they both win by setting up their defenders well, and are very nuanced route runners. They both attack the hips of defenders really well, and run a full route tree. The sad thing is that Mims fits perfectly as the third WR in this group, because of his size/speed, but he didn't seem motivated at all. I think the Shanahan system somewhat favors duplicity in their WR skills. We had the Rams with Kupp/Woods, both route technicians that got open because they could set up the defenders. Deebo/Ayuik are more YAC monsters that can create havoc with the ball in their hands. Cincy has a bit more traditional set up with Higgins/Chase but Chase was a generational talent with ties to the QB, so I'm not sure how much that played into the decision. I think the aspect that will really be interesting is the "triangle offense" if you will, between the two WRs plus the RB. If teams stack the box, these guys can really hurt you down the field, and if they play back, then Breece Hall could be a star.
  11. Yeah, it'd be Darnold vs. Wilson because I don't really believe in Brisset at all. They would have their QB for a decent part of the year, can rely mostly on Chubb like Darnold did with CMC. It's not ideal, but I'm guessing it's better than a disgruntled Baker on the team. I'm not sure who else even goes after Mayfield at this point. I thought the Steelers, but they just spent a first rd pick on an older QB, so I doubt they want him to sit much, and it's an inter-division trade. Only other team I can think of is the Seahawks.
  12. I thought he had trade value, but they got caught in the Watson cycle. If they traded Mayfield, without getting Watson, in a year where the QB draft was abysmal, they look dumb for tanking a possible contender. If they kept Mayfield, I think it would have been fine to bank on him possibly coming back from injury and then going from there. But they went all in on Watson, who most likely will be suspended, and tanked Mayfield's value in the process, and tanking this season anyway, without the picks for next year. Watson already screwed them over with the last minute switch (every indication was Atlanta). I think their big fear was him going to the Steelers and instantly becoming a solid starter, so they want to have some control. I still think a Mayfield/Darnold trade might end up happening, because at this point, there's no benefit of cutting him. Both on 5th year options, Darnold won't make any issues, and Mayfield offers more upside for the Panthers.
  13. The Baker Mayfield situation was handled so weirdly. He easily outplayed Sam Darnold, and his last healthy season was a top 15-ish QB, yet no one wants him. Darnold netting a 2nd and 4th, while Baker basically has to be cut is a bigger feather in Douglas' cap than the Adams trade at this point.
  14. Finally got my hands on some All-22, and have plenty of time recovering from surgery next week. I really wanted to break down Burks, but now I'm going between Burks/Pierce. From Youtube tapes, I'm really surprised by Burks lack of burst. I thought he was much more explosive on film than pretty much any of his numbers. I thought maybe he would re-do the 40 at his pro-day but he stood by it, even if disappointing, which makes me think that's the higher end of the spectrum that he expected. The lack of physical capabilities worry me because in college, you can scheme players open with ease, especially if you have a mobile QB (which he did). I don't know, if we draft him, I'll probably do a deeper dive I guess so I can talk myself into it.
  15. That's going to be hard to tell, I think we're still straddling the line of "athletic enough" to be mobile, but has elite arm strength to make up for it. Guys like Allen/Mahomes can bypass rules like throwing across the field because of their abilities, and I think more teams will look for that in QBs. It's just going to be really hard to tell, because the mental aspect of the deciphering the game is nearly impossible to scout. On a tangent, I wonder if that mixes in with OL now. If the stable pass protector isn't as needed as the more mobile guys that can create holes. Maybe it's not about maintaining a pocket, but creating lanes. I thought about it watching a Ravens/Steelers game, and it showed Hayward wasn't rushing around the edge as much. They were so fearful of Lamar stepping up and running through the C gap, that they didn't try to run around the edge. Would the implementation of mobile QBs, then change the dynamics of OL (especially OT) scouting? Do you want the guy that can hold you back consistently, or do you want the aggressive guy that can push you back to create holes for the QB to escape, but risk being beaten more often?
  16. I think there's a systemic change now, where teams are more enamored with tools than production in college. We saw it work out with Allen over Rosen, Murray replacing Rosen, Lamar, Mahomes, Herbert. Heck, there is no reason way Lance put anything on tape better than Fields/Mac Jones. Even the draft community being enamored by Wilson. 10 years ago, I don't think Wilson/Lance/Fields go ahead of Jones. He had the "production and enough talent angle, while winning on the big stage" resume to be picked higher. But teams seem to be on the clean slate approach, just wanting the tools, and then allowing their team to develop the QB and take out the bad tendencies. A very good example is Rodgers, coming out, he was basically all tools, and a weird delivery. They are doing the same approach with Love. You want athletes first now, be it running or big arm, and then build the mental side afterwards. I think the days of mentally prepared studs coming out of college ready are extremely rare, like a Joe Burrow recently. Look at Malik Willis getting hype now, this guy has some of the worst reads out there in the class, but there is first round hype on him because the raw athlete is too intriguing. The RPO system is so prevalent from pop warner on up that you really can't rely on production as much, but rather the tools. Can he make this read? Can he make this throw? I think that's what Miami is finding out about Tua, because he checks every other box. He's accurate, he's mobile, he has the production in college, but his arm just isn't there. There's only so much you can scheme up with a young QB. I think we are going to go the college way soon, more and more QBs are going to be duel threat studs rather than the pocket passer we're used to seeing, and that requires pure athleticism.
  17. The issue with Darnold highlights probably the biggest problem with QB scouting in general. It's the most important position in football, because it transcends athletic ability to such a degree that you can't confidently scout them consistently. Darnold's issues are mostly post-snap reads, where he just can't read a defense. It stems from the RPO based offenses in college, which dictate moves based on those reads. If X (unblocked defender) chases RB, pull back the ball the ball. If the safety moves down, first read is 1 receiver, if LB moves back, first read is 2 receiver. The QB isn't reading the defense, they are reading the situation. The issue here is that the unblocked defender essentially works out as a delayed blitz running free. When the defender realizes that the RB doesn't have the ball, he has a direct path to the QB, at which point it's make the throw or bail time. Ultimately, this forces the QB to either make a no-read throw, or run around the pocket. You just don't have the time to do anything else. Unfortunately, this means QBs aren't used to sitting in the pocket and making reads, they are used to pre-determined reads, and then improvising. They come to the NFL and realize those easy reads just aren't there, you have to understand defensive shells and make reads while in the pocket. Darnold is very jittery in the pocket because he's not accustomed to sitting in the pocket and going through progressions. There's a sense of calmness with someone like Brady who goes from one progression to another. There's a sense of panic from someone like Darnold, who's hoping the next progression is open. We all made fun of Gase when reports came out he didn't like Darnold to audible, but part of the reasoning is that he just gets fooled on pre-snap looks, and checks into bad plays. Ultimately, with McCaffery, you saw a ton of checkdowns because he wasn't making the reads down the field. Once he got hurt, that was over. Ideally, you want QBs to learn this trait with good OL that teaches them to stay in the pocket. Even more importantly, there has to be a coverage eraser as a receiver. Someone that can beat the defense even if the defense has called the correct play. We see this a ton with Allen/Williams for the Chargers, where they can beat good coverage. Same with Diggs, Hopkins, Hill/Kelce, Chase/Higgins/, etc. You want those weapons so when you make the wrong read, you can still survive. I think that's what separates good QBs from bad ones, they can survive the bad reads by getting the ball to their playmakers. The bad ones get sacked or intercepted to kill drives. Darnold never had that to develop, so it's no surprise he hasn't improved. It's a combination of both things going wrong for him.
  18. Berrios had a pro-bowl season as a returner, and we were Trevor Lawrence deciding to run out of bounds away from picking No. 1 in this draft. While Berrios is good, PR/KR are mostly interchangeable, unless you have a special Devin Hester type on the team. I'd much rather take that money and spend it on more important positions, be it signing a player, or signing a better player to more money that is available through the cheap PR/KR.
  19. A late round draft pick, just like Berrios. For example, when factoring in contracts, I would take someone like Dazz Newsome over Berrios for next year. This year, a guy like Velus Jones Jr. He's not going to crack the top 3 WR spot as a rookie, but provides similar skills to Berrios, and he'll be a late round draft pick. I'd rather use the money elsewhere.
  20. I might be in the minority, but I let Berrios walk. 4th WR/KR/PR types are exactly the areas you try to fill with cheap talent. Remember when everyone was upset Andre Roberts? I don't want to overpay for a guy at that point, let him go somewhere else for anything over $4 million. If our 3rd WR is Berrios, we have major problems.
  21. I'll take Cooper as WR1. His stats are similar in 3 year average to Diggs before the deal to Buffalo, and he's only 1 year older.
  22. I haven't gotten All-22 yet, but he's one of those guys that is interesting in terms of physical capabilities (I think he'll measure high, run fast) and get hyped. I didn't like the tape I've seen so far though: Pro: He can high point the ball, and knows how to use his size as an advantage. Physical profile is ideal, will have size/speed combination Con: The only real route that I saw him get open on a consistent basis was the double move, fake slant and go type moves. He has a reset step with his back foot at the snap, we talked about the same issue last year with Bateman. He loses time at the snap because he resets his back foot. He doesn't just give away his intended route, he practically draws a map for the cornerback. Very limited in terms of route technique, will turn his head towards where he's going on a slant or out, and slows down out of cuts. He doesn't read the defender much at all. There's an interception against Georgia this year (I think it ended up a pick 6) where the slot safety (or CB?) is playing well off the line. The defender moves prior to the snap, but Ross runs a very lazy slant expecting the defender to be far away. The defender undercuts it and takes it to the house. He didn't threaten the defender at all with route set up. He could have just exploded off the line and stopped the defender in their tracks, but he casually ran to a spot. It looked like something Mims would do this year. He seems to have a lot of rapid foot fire moves at the stem of a route, but that doesn't work nearly as well on the NFL level, unless you mix it up. All he's doing is slowing down, and NFL CBs would just wait until he makes a move one way or another, and react. I don't see the separation quite as much on in-rhythm passes. Saw manufactured touches, and extended plays where he got open, but that primary read/beats coverage in stride with QB seemed to be missing. Overall: I love his physical profile, and I thought he'd be a monster after his freshman debut. I'm not impressed with him, but I would take a shot in the 4th or so just because he has so much potential. So far, I like Alex Pierce or Christian Watson more than Ross, which is something I thought I would never say.
  23. I don't think the hiring process being evaluated is going anywhere because that's nearly impossible to prove. It's impossible to prove in other industries in business where resumes can be compared, so rarely anything as subjective as what makes a good coach. I think the main problem is the lack of front office personnel that are non-white because these coaching hires are all subjective. I'll use Gase as an example. Take out locker room fit, and pure Xs and Os, he probably does really well on the whiteboard. He has a plan for developing QB, how to breakdown film, etc. He's an idiot in media relations and locker room culture, and doesn't know how to adjust from his plan for players that don't quite fit. Rex Ryan has great media relations and locker room culture, but he doesn't know offense if it was baked into his brownies. Todd Bowles was too much of a players coach, didn't actually know how to lead a team, a prime example of Peter's principle. In all three cases, there's a subjective analysis aspect to the hire that we got wrong. It's the mandate to lose that is really the possible smoking gun because there's millions riding on these games now with the general public, and every little move is going to be criticized. I understand the desire for tanking, because the game incentivizes it, and it's unavoidable. Even if you have a lottery system, there are going to be teams tanking to get into the lottery. It would then have the pitfalls of the lottery being rigged as well. There's a part of me that thought the Jags tanked against the Jets this year, the goal line play calls were just dumb. I'm sure the Giants were tanking as well. Look at the Eagles last year, they basically tanked the last game. Got a higher pick, which they traded out of and got a bounty. There's always an incentive to tank if you look at your team needs specifically, no matter the fan rhetoric "Love of the game" and what not. The players don't have much incentive because their paychecks are based on performance rather than wins. I wonder if there is going to be an investigation into this because that's going to change gambling considerably. There are games that are taken off the betting floor if there are major injury concerns (if star player is questionable), and I wonder if certain teams vying for the bottom of the draft might have their spreads eliminated. Interesting off-season so far, and I'm here to watch it all burn for the Dolphins.
  24. I really wanted to start a podcast, focusing more on draft prospects that should be of interest to the Jets. But my 10 game parlay didn't hit, so alas can't afford the time lol. I wish we had like a panel type podcast/video segment, so we get some different viewpoints. I see a few when I try to look at prospects on YouTube (mainly fantasy based) but I think it could really work for a team based approach. The issue as always is time because it's just so hard to find time to do anything unless you are financially set at your day job.
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