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Everything posted by jamesr

  1. Doesn't that risk giving a decent team in a tough division a better result than a genuinely poor team? Like the fact that a division winner can go to the playoffs with a far worse record than a second placed team elsewhere? Divisions are not equal, so basing it on position within them will give unequal outcomes.
  2. Exactly - and the question of "who would you rather have" is also quite vague. Are they talking about winning one game, building a franchise around, adding that one last piece to a strong team - what's the context? If you're talking long term I'd want the much more consistent guy but if it's to win one game you might consider the "boom or bust" guy a bit more.
  3. Recency effect and "wow" factor. Right now Diggs has had one amazing season. Do it again. And again. Then we'll talk.
  4. NFL Europe was like watching the last preseason game every week for 10 weeks ... trying to get excited about guys who might stick around as special teamers / practice squad guys. NFL is the second most watched sport in Germany. Probably more popular than in quite a lot of places in the US.
  5. If we assume he wouldn't make it past Carolina at 6, what we the have to look at is what trade up options make sense. Clearly we will not pick a QB. It also looks very likely that the Giants will not take a QB, which makes our situation a bit trickier ... why trade up to 4 when they guy you want will probably still be there at 5? Two possibilities that will help with that. Maybe NYG want a guy at 5 that they know will be gone by 8 or 11 if they trade down (e.g. one of the top OL). The price to trade to 5 could be higher than / same as our price at 4. And if there are two potential suitors then we are a better target. But that needs another team looking to trade up - could even be Carolina if they believe he won't last till 6. (How poetic would that be?)
  6. jamesr

    FA WR's

    I'm not keen on any guy who's going to miss a significant chunk of the offseason due to injury rehab. We can't go plugging in new guys late in camp / during preseason and expecting things to just "click". If we had an experienced QB then yes, but Zach needs as much time in camp with the expected starters as he can get.
  7. Agree so much with this. If LaFleur is looking at Berrios and saying "next year we can do X, Y and Z with him that we didn't do this year" then is future value >>> his current value. If all they expect is a role player on offense that gets about the same playing time & yardage next year, plus the ST stays consistent, then his value is lower than the speculative $9m. There will be negotiations - Joe D is in no rush to get BB signed and has no need to pay the player's (supposed) asking price without some to and fro. In fact he probably has a vested interest in NOT paying the asking price, looking ahead to future negotiations. He has to be seen as a tough but fair negotiator.
  8. It's not the TDs that count so much. It's the field position / return yardage. Field position is a major factor in a lot of games. Berrios had 28 returns last year, and averaged 30.4 yards per return. On average each kick return was 5.4 yards better than a touchback. That's 28 times we started a drive with a "free" 5 yard gain. 28 times we had 5 fewer yards to go for a TD. It may not sound a lot but it does add up ... if Berrios had 150 extra rushing yards on the season people would probably look at him differently, but because it's kick return yardage it tends to get forgotten. Factor in another 200 punt return yards and that's 350 fewer yards we had to go to score in 2022. 350 return yards is every bit as valuable as 350 receiving / rushing yards. Adding it all up - Berrios contributed 820 yards and 5 TDs in 2022 as a role player. For comparison, Carter had 964 yards and 4 TDs. Moore had 592 and 6 TDs.
  9. My preferred outcome of this offseason is to sign a WR and TE in FA and also to draft one of each (likely WR Rd 1, TE Rd 2). Drafting two at either position means we're really counting on one being able to start and be solid / strong from Day 1. I think that's a tough ask and too much of a risk. I realise the FA signings are not going to be your top of the market guys, but especially at TE, a guy who is a bit below league average would still be an upgrade for us until we can work in the draft pick on a more regular basis. WR is less of an issue on that front - we have two guys who can start / deliver Day 1 (Davis / Moore) and (possibly) a decent depth guy in Berrios who can start at #3 if necessary. Hopefully the draft pick can complement these 2 / 3 and by season's end make us feel happy to move on from Davis if we wish to. But having another vet would give good depth and time for the rookie to get up to speed without being relied upon too early.
  10. Andre Roberts is 33 and is purely a returner. This year he has had 1 catch and 3 rush attempts. His punt return average was 5 yards. Berrios is 7 years younger and is a returner, WR and "gadget" player. This year he had 46 catches and 7 rush attempts. His punt return average was 13.4 yards. If all we want is a good kick returner and a meh punt returner, then yes you can get that for far less money. Let's say 1.5m for argument's sake. But you then need to pay some other guy to replace the offensive production that you lost, and in FA you usually have to pay a premium for that. Are we going to find a guy who is providing ~500 yards on offense for ~6m in FA? Possibly. But what do you gain? Two players on slightly less money overall to potentially get similar production vs. the known quantity? At the expense of continuity, familiarity in the system, and the team culture impact of discarding a guy who worked hard only to get replaced? I don't think he's a 9m a year signing, and as has been said many times this is a speculated figure from a random agent, not from Berrios or his agent. Teams seldom pay the initial asking price either, just like players seldom take a team's first offer, so there is certainly too much overreaction to the 9m figure. But if it were around 7.5m (and a lot will depend on structure, phony years etc) I would see that as a no-brainer.
  11. If he gets 9m anywhere (or reasonably close to it) then it justifies all the pro Berrios sentiment in that thread. The OP basically started out saying he was a talentless JAG that was taking a roster spot from someone more deserving. To now be arguing about whether he's worth 7m / 8m / 9m per year pretty much proves how wrong that premise was. Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
  12. I'm amazed that the previous 110 posts failed to bring in this now classic line! Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
  13. You're not alone! [emoji2] Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
  14. Not sure how relevant this is, and it's tough to find some context, but Zach had two throws (Week 5 vs. Atlanta, Week 7 vs NE) that were both very catchable balls and likely TDs that resulted in PI flags at the 2 yard line. ATL play was 41 yards, NE play was 46 yards. Both drives ended up as TDs (the latter being the infamous Mike White first career pass being a TD). Yes, I'm sure other QBs get a lot of PI flags in their favour too (not sure about Sammy D in that respect though ).
  15. Bear in mind that this is part of a journey - not the end point. They aren't trying to turn him into a game manager long term. They went from game loser --> game manager last season, next step is to progress from game manager --> game winner.
  16. The one thing that makes me think the Jets MAY be interested is that we tend to play a lot of "big nickel" defense rather than a "normal" 4-3. Hamilton would be quite versatile in that scheme, able to support both the run (better than a slot DB) and pass. Not sure that makes him "worth" the #4 or #10 pick, and the whole "hybrid role" thing does kind of scare me, but I can see at least some logic to it beyond the "generational" hype.
  17. I edited my original post after doing a quick search. There are actually quite a lot of female owners - more than I had thought.
  18. There are / were quite a few. First that sprang to mind was Georgia Frontiere was Rams owner for a long time (1979 - 2008). But Chicago, Detroit, Houston and many others have female owners / joint owners. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NFL_franchise_owners
  19. My worry with Godwin and the timing of his injury is that it will likely mean he misses quite a bit of the offseason rehabbing. We need someone who can be full on from Day 1 of camp, working with Zach to get their timing and chemistry as far as along as possible. Not someone who might be ready by preseason and they're still getting used to each other by mid season.
  20. I think generally that the OL is rather like the OC ... all their fault when it goes wrong, never get a mention when it goes well. And a good bit of that comes because we want to believe we have our franchise QB and a gem at RB, so blame is often apportioned to the line for bad plays, whether or not the star player behind them was the real culprit.
  21. Even the commentator joked that he didn't have a running game to fall back on!
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