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jamesr

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Posts posted by jamesr

  1. On 2/14/2022 at 9:14 PM, Maxman said:

    Yeah the ACL is going to be an issue for sure. Injuring it this late in the season, curious what his timeline even is for next season.

    We certainly can't go after guys who are not going to be available in training camp. We need our first team to be practicing together on the field, not on bikes on the sidelines.

  2. 1 hour ago, 68JET11 said:

    Agreed, but FA should be about plugging holes and getting the players you want to help build your team. Not spending top dollar on guys who don't play much because of injuries. Then in the draft u draft for BPA, and need hopefully in the same pick, however I'm not drafting an EDGE because we need on that doesn't belong at #4. I'd personally rather trade down, if there was a willing partner, but if that's not the case, and you have say one of the OL on the top of your draft board you take him, and then pick up the EDGE Johnson or Karlaftis at 10.

    FA is always a tricky situation - yes, you want to enter the draft with no glaring holes, but given that our biggest need is edge rusher I'm not sure what direction we'll look to go based on who is / will be available.

    Miller, Jones, Clowney, Ingram ... all very much in the older / oft-injured category and likely won't come cheap. Gregory is more a concern around suspensions than injuries ... doesn't strike me as a fit for us. Ogbah or Landry may be a better option, but they'll want to be well paid and given a decent contract length, does JD see either of them as being good value and long term guys?

    Whether or not we go (1) short term rental of declining vet, (2) long term investment in potential riser or (3) fill out the roster with a JAG or two will have a big influence on our likely draft route.

    1 or 3 will pretty much require a decent draft investment - just maybe not #4 overall - whereas 2 would potentially mean we'll only draft edge in Round 1 if one of the top two is still there at 4. Option 1 also tends to be the sort of thing you look at post-draft - who's still on the shelf who's willing to take a one-year team friendly deal.

    As for the draft itself, JD needs t have the courage to make the "bold pick" - if he views a Karlaftis or an Ojabo as a future star then they have to ignore the consensus on value IMHO. Too often with Macc we complained that he took the consensus / "safe" pick regardless of positional value; I'm hoping JD will not shy away from taking "his guy" because of concerns over public opinion and the inevitable draft grades that are handed out the day after the draft. Not advocating picking a edge just because we need one, but if he has a belief in the guy he can't let perception / job pressure get in the way of making the pick.

    • Like 1
  3. 30 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

    If the Jets addressed the OL in free agency and Hutch/Thib go in the top 3, everybody needs to buckle up because Kyle Hamilton is probably the pick

    Hamilton or Gardner, potentially.

    But don't rule out still going Edge ... I know there's a lot of talk about "value" and "drafting players too high". But TJ Watt was drafted 30th, I'm sure in part because of "value" and "not drafting him too high". If you rate a guy high enough on your board, and have a real need at that position, you take him whether or not the value is there, IMHO. Say we pass on Karlaftis or another Edge and he tears it up elsewhere, while we end up with a good guard or a DB, yet again we'll be kicking ourselves (or JD, anyway) for bad drafting.

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  4. 10 hours ago, Drums said:

    Based on the write up, Corbett sounds like a guy JD might target. Personally, I’d like to see LDT come back. I haven’t heard what his plans are but I liked him and the line got way better when he started. Then draft depth day 2+ based on their boards. Other than that, besides Williams and Scherf, the other vets sound like they would fit in. This already seems like a better group than the FA WRs. 

    There was a nice quote from LDT I saw yesterday (EDIT - also see it was posted above) ... talked about wanting to come back and how the team culture is so important to him, the relationship with the coaching staff etc. I'm hopeful we'll keep him and have him compete for the starting job; as I say above, worst case he's top quality depth.

    • Upvote 1
  5. Difference as I see it - Rams were a very good team that went all in to be a championship team. Jets aren't anywhere near to good enough to start filling some holes / shooting for the moon with FAs.

    You build it up, get good, THEN you can start to look at those few missing pieces. Right now we only have a few pieces that are NOT missing.

    • Upvote 3
  6. 7 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

    Trey Lance and Malik Willis are not “very similar” prospects.   Lance is 4’ taller, has a better arm and is a better athlete.  Willis is barely 6’ and doesn’t posses the same type of athleticism as Lance.  Even in this weak QB class,  I’m not buying that Willis is a top 10, let alone top 5 QB.   

    4' ... or 4" ?  ;-) 

     

    • Haha 1
  7. 1 hour ago, section314 said:

    Would that be worse than having an 0-16 Lions team from a few years past picking 4th because of lottery balls? I think what you and I are both kind of proving is that they should just leave the system alone.

    I'm absolutely in favour of keeping it as it is. If the (perceived) issue is around deliberate tanking to get a better draft pick, you deal with that at the owner level - everyone plays by the rules or you get kicked out / fined etc. Maybe have some sort of ethics committee to monitor etc.

    There are very few owners - if they suspect one of their group is playing the system for individual gain, they need to address it, as it is directly screwing them over as a result. and risking the overall integrity of the sport.

  8. 10 minutes ago, section314 said:

    All good points.I would not favor a draft lottery, but if they go to one, I would favor it just being the 8 last place teams. Look at this year. Two of the top 3 picks are from the same division. I know it’s not perfect, but if it happens, it’s consistent.

    If I'm a Houston fan and I'm picking 9th, behind Denver and Seattle (both 7-10) I'm going to be pretty miffed to say the least.

    You could then see more teams looking to tank more games (esp. head to head games) - which would directly contradict the objective of discouraging tanking.

  9. 14 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

     

    PFF has him as the Jets highest rated FA.  They estimate him at 3/$25M with $15M guarantees.

    Odd how more people seem to be high on resigning Foley than Berrios ... a guy who's a run stopper on the 29th D vs the run, vs a guy who is a top return man and a decent enough WR.

    But, you know, DT >>> Weaponz. ;-)  

  10. 18 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

    I think Berrios is the priority.  Great returner that could be evolving into really good slot guy. And I know many here think that because Elijah Moore is short that he is therefore our default slot guy and we can't have both Berrios and Moore on the field at the same time. Simply not true. Moore is an emerging #1 WR who can play in the slot, but is also really good outside thanks to his speed/route running.

    https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/11/23/elijah-moore-outside-wr-slot/

    The Jets and their fans marveled at Moore’s brilliance in Week 11 as he caught eight passes for 141 yards and a touchdown against Miami’s expensive secondary. Take a look at the distribution of his production in that performance:

    • Slot: 9 routes run, 1 catch, 1 target, 5 yards, 0 first downs
    • Outside: 26 routes run, 7 catches, 10 targets, 136 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 first downs

    Just about all of Moore’s damage was done from the outside. This continues the trend that had been developing over the first three games of Moore’s explosion.

    Here is a look at the distribution of Moore’s production from Weeks 8-11:

    • Slot: 29 routes run, 7 targets, 6 catches, 39 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 first down
    • Outside: 86 routes run, 23 targets, 18 catches, 297 yards, 3 touchdowns, 10 first downs
    • And here is a comparison of Moore’s efficiency over that span:

      Slot (25.2% of routes): 5.6 yards per target, 1.34 yards per route run, TD/1stD on 28.6% of targets, TD/1stD on 6.9% of routes

      Outside (74.8% of routes): 12.9 yards per target, 3.45 yards per route run, TD/1stD on 56.5% of targets, TD/1stD on 15.1% of routes

    Thanks for posting this - the whole "Moore is our starting slot WR" narrative in the Berrios thread reminded me of this exact article but I couldn't find it.

     

    • Upvote 1
  11. On 2/5/2022 at 6:54 PM, section314 said:

    If they ever do go to a lottery, make it easy. The last place finishers in each division, 8 overall, are in the lottery. The other 24 teams are positioned like they do it now. 

    Doesn't that risk giving a decent team in a tough division a better result than a genuinely poor team?

    Like the fact that a division winner can go to the playoffs with a far worse record than a second placed team elsewhere?

    Divisions are not equal, so basing it on position within them will give unequal outcomes.

  12. 2 hours ago, Jets Things said:

    11 picks is an amazing stat, but Diggs got positively torched in every other stat. 

    Exactly - and the question of "who would you rather have" is also quite vague. Are they talking about winning one game, building a franchise around, adding that one last piece to a strong team - what's the context? If you're talking long term I'd want the much more consistent guy but if it's to win one game you might consider the "boom or bust" guy a bit more.

  13. 9 hours ago, nycdan said:

    So NFL Europe fails.  And their response is to drag the pro teams across the Atlantic with increasing frequency to play games that most here can't watch live and most there don't care about.  I would imagine most players aren't thrilled with the idea, particularly those who are based on the west coast, and that the travel takes a toll.

    Do we really have to chase every last imaginary euro around the world at the expense of the quality of the games?

    Not a fan of this.

    NFL Europe was like watching the last preseason game every week for 10 weeks ... trying to get excited about guys who might stick around as special teamers / practice squad guys.

    NFL is the second most watched sport in Germany. Probably more popular than in quite a lot of places in the US. :D 

    • Upvote 1
  14. If we assume he wouldn't make it past Carolina at 6, what we the have to look at is what trade up options make sense. Clearly we will not pick a QB. It also looks very likely that the Giants will not take a QB, which makes our situation a bit trickier ... why trade up to 4 when they guy you want will probably still be there at 5?

    Two possibilities that will help with that. Maybe NYG want a guy at 5 that they know will be gone by 8 or 11 if they trade down (e.g. one of the top OL). The price to trade to 5 could be higher than / same as our price at 4. And if there are two potential suitors then we are a better target. But that needs another team looking to trade up - could even be Carolina if they believe he won't last till 6. (How poetic would that be?)

  15. I'm not keen on any guy who's going to miss a significant chunk of the offseason due to injury rehab. We can't go plugging in new guys late in camp / during preseason and expecting things to just "click". If we had an experienced QB then yes, but Zach needs as much time in camp with the expected starters as he can get.

    • Upvote 4
  16. 1 hour ago, mrcoops said:

    In reality, it really depends on the role that the Jets have in mind for Berrios going forward.

    If they see him as, effectively, the starter at slot AND the starting KR/PR, then $9M a year doesn't seem too out of line.

    If he's primarily seen as the KR/PR, and a backup WR who plays fairly regularly, then $9M is probably more than they will want to pay.

    If another team sees him as a starting slot and the Jets don't, he'll be gone.  I hope the Jets and Berrios can work out something that suits them both, because he's a valuable player no matter what his role.

    Agree so much with this. If LaFleur is looking at Berrios and saying "next year we can do X, Y and Z with him that we didn't do this year" then is future value >>> his current value.

    If all they expect is a role player on offense that gets about the same playing time & yardage next year, plus the ST stays consistent, then his value is lower than the speculative $9m.

    There will be negotiations - Joe D is in no rush to get BB signed and has no need to pay the player's (supposed) asking price without some to and fro. In fact he probably has a vested interest in NOT paying the asking price, looking ahead to future negotiations. He has to be seen as a tough but fair negotiator.

    • Upvote 3
    • Like 1
  17. 31 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

    That’s why I don’t understand why guys keep hyping up his value as a return guy. Yeah he’s good at it but it’s not a major factor in most games. He had one return TD last year, guys acting like he had 8

    It's not the TDs that count so much. It's the field position / return yardage. Field position is a major factor in a lot of games. 

    Berrios had 28 returns last year, and averaged 30.4 yards per return. On average each kick return was 5.4 yards better than a touchback. That's 28 times we started a drive with a "free" 5 yard gain. 28 times we had 5 fewer yards to go for a TD.

    It may not sound a lot but it does add up ... if Berrios had 150 extra rushing yards on the season people would probably look at him differently, but because it's kick return yardage it tends to get forgotten. Factor in another 200 punt return yards and that's 350 fewer yards we had to go to score in 2022. 350 return yards is every bit as valuable as 350 receiving / rushing yards. 

    Adding it all up - Berrios contributed 820 yards and 5 TDs in 2022 as a role player. For comparison, Carter had 964 yards and 4 TDs. Moore had 592 and 6 TDs.

     

     

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