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jamesr

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Posts posted by jamesr

  1. We beat the Dolphins twice.  They are in our division.  But I have since been convinced that we lose the tie-breakers if we both finish 11-5.

     

    The Mia win was referring to their Wk 17 game vs NE.

    And NE can win the division this week, even if we win, depending on results elsewhere that effect strength of victory. So I think it's safe to say the only way we win the division is to win out and have the Patsies lose out.

  2. Not that I expect it to happen, but if the Jets catch the Pats, the Pats wouldn't necessarily have the tie-breaker.  For example, in the unlikely event that the Jets win out and the Pats go 1-3, they could each have 11-5 records, be 8-4 in the conference, 4-2 in the division and be 1-1 head to head.   But this scenario would require the Jets to beat the Pats and Bills and the Pats to lose to the Dolphins in the last game of the season, so not likely to happen.  But if it did, what would be the tie-breaker then? 

    Tie breaks within the division are : head to head, division record, common games, conference record.

    Assuming we beat them head to head is a draw, so it goes to division. Pats are 4-0 (would be 4-1 if we beat them), we're 2-2 (would be 3-2 if we beat them). So we'd need Miami to win on the last day, and beat Buffalo, to tie this one at 4-2.

    Common games - at present Patsies are 7-1 in common games with 3 to play; Jets are 5-3 with 3 to play. Assuming the above Mia win / Buf loss scenario, they'd be 7-2 and we'd be 6-3. We'd also need to win one more game than them, which would bring us level whichever way it goes.

    As mentioned above, we'd also end on the same conference record if we win out and Patsies go 1-3. However, if we go 3-1, losing to Dallas, and Patsies go 0-4, we'd both be 10-6 but we'd win the division on the better conference record. That's the only scenario I can find where we win on that tie break.

    After that it's strength of victory - which is the combined winning % of the teams that each team has beaten ... and I'm not even going to start looking at that one. It's already getting fictitious enough! :P

  3. Pitt has to play Cincy and Denver.  Certainly reduces their chances of winning out.  And both of those teams are battling for the top seeds so they won't be resting anybody.

    If they do win both of those games, we would be in trouble. If they win one of them, we would need to beat all 3 AFC teams to get in (unless they somehow lose to Baltimore or Cleveland to close out the year).

  4. NFL Network last night said if KC, Jets, and the Steelers win out the rest of their games, the Jets get bounced and the Steelers take the 6th seed.  How is that possible?  Why wouldn't they own the 6th seed right now?

    If Jets and Steelers both win out, we're tied on record (11-5) and conference record (8-4).

    Next tie-break is record in common games, and essentially it would boil down to us having lost to Oakland, whom Pitt beat.

    I think the only permutation where we end up with the same record as Pitt and we win the tie break is if we both go 3-1, with the Jets loss being to Dallas. We end up 8-4 in AFC games, Pitt end up 7-5.

    Only reason we own the 6th seed over Pitt is due to the imbalance in the schedule - we've played 9 AFC games and are 5-4, Pitt have played 8 and are 4-4. So we're ahead as it stands now, but in two weeks, after Dallas, we'll know a lot more as we'll both have played the same number of AFC games, and Pitt will have played the tough part of their run.

    • Upvote 1
  5.  

    I never said we're in, just that it wouldn't take a real collapse for us to get in. If we win out and Pitt loses one to the Bengals, thats not us benefiting from a "real collapse" as someone had said.  

    My "real collapse" statement referred to having our Wk 17 game vs. Buffalo being a "win and in" scenario for BOTH teams. Pitt would need to lose at least two of their next three, and possibly all of them, for that to happen. Losing 3 in a row when you're in a strong play off position would be a real collapse to me.

  6. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000598293/article/chiefs-seahawks-contenders-steelers-falcons-pretenders

    New York Jets (7-5, second in AFC East): The Jets control their own destiny, which is the best thing one can say about their playoff hopes. If they win three of their remaining games -- which include matchups with Tennessee, Dallas, New England and Buffalo -- they will have no problem making the postseason. If they only win two, it will be a different story. New England and Buffalo both have already beaten the Jets, and each should have plenty to play for at the end of the season. However, the Jetsare riding the emotions that came out of their 23-20 overtime win over the Giants last Sunday. There's also something hard to define about this team that makes it worth believing in at this time of year. Maybe it's the toughness quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick displayed in playing through a thumb injury on his left hand. It could be the collective balance in this bunch, as the Jets rank in the top 10 in both total offense and defense. Whatever it is, it just feels like the Jets have fought hard enough to catch some breaks down the stretch. FINAL VERDICT: CONTENDER

    I dispute the "control our destiny" assertion - if we win out, we can still miss out, so we don't. But the writer believes the Steelers have little chance (labelled them pretenders), hence the belief that we'll be in with a 3-1 record down the stretch.

    FINAL VERDICT: CONTENDER

    Just in case that got missed the first time. :D

  7. We're in today with KC.  Pitt's out looking in.  

    We don't need anyone to have a real collapse.  Pitt needs us to collapse and KC doesn't care at this point

    We're only in the 6 seed at the moment on a technicality - the tie-breaker is % record in conference games, we're 5-4 and Pitt are 4-4, hence why we are higher.

    If both Pitt and NYJ finish on the same record, they'll get the WC spot, not us, UNLESS we have a loss to Dallas ... if that happens, we'd win the conference tie-breaker.

    But going back to the original suggested scenario - where the winner of NYJ vs Buf gets the last WC - Pitt would need to already be out of the running by Week 16. Only way that is likely to happen is if they have a real collapse, IMHO. Buffalo would need to be a game up on Pitt to be in it by Week 17, which would mean Pitt losing 2 of their next 3, and Buffalo winning all 3 (or Pitt losing all 3 and Buffalo winning 2 of 3).

  8. Man how crazy would it be if that last Bills vs Jets game decided who got the last seed for the wildcard? Can easily see it playing out like this with both teams schedules.

    I think Pitt or KC would have to have a real collapse for this to happen ... I can see it being that Jets need a win to get in, but having it being both teams in that position looks less likely IMHO.

    But you never know. ;)

  9. Look in the thread about our current kicker, Randy Bullock. He's been called a choker and such like because of a short bad stint with Houston earlier. Yet people seem to forget that when we picked up Folk he was coming off of a really bad year in Dallas (10 missed FGs out of 28). Since then he's been excellent for us.

    Seems the rush to judgement is the only way some people get any exercise these days. ;)

  10. Considering the guy has 7 wins in 11 starts (and 9 wins in his last 13 NFL games), this thread is looking pretty dumb about now...

    Any thread with the premise of "X will not happen this year because it didn't happen before" is setting itself up for trouble, IMHO.

    It's the same when people jump to conclusions about "good" and "bad" teams based on the first 5 or 6 weeks, and stick by that regardless. Like how we should have beaten a "bad" Houston team because they started 1-4 and we started 4-1. Or how KC were trash after going 1-5 (despite their schedule in those weeks being brutal).

    Every season, and every game, is different, and history often goes out the window.

    Unless you're the Cleveland Browns. :P

     

    • Upvote 4
  11. So did the Bills and Dolphins.  Yet they're looking up at us in the Wild Card chase and Division.  Partly because the Bills lost to the Giants.  The Dolphins also lost to the Cowboys in addition to getting swept by us.

    Meanwhile, the Patriots managed to lose to Philly too this past week.

    Bills and Dolphins also both lost to Jacksonville. :lol:

  12. Folk has been great for us for years.

    Bullock was a choking dog in Houston. I'm pleasantly surprised he;s has played well for us so far but in no way shape or form should be be planning to hang on to him as our long term kicker. 

    In his first year in Houston he was perfect from within 40 yards but missed 9 of 22 from 40+.

    Improved a lot in Year 2 - 30 / 35 (and 2 were blocks, not misses), going 19/22 within 40 yards and an impressive 11/13 from 40+.

    Year 3 (this year) he missed 1 FG and 2 PATs (from the longer distance) - and that got him cut. Has gone 6/6 for us so far.

  13. That Houston loss really hurt. Our main competition for a playoff spot might be KC - and they have 3 extremely winnable games coming up: Chargers, Ravens and Browns. Our schedule is not as easy, with the Patriots at home and a trip to Buffalo in week 17. Both teams could conceivably finish 10-6 and KC would win on tie-breaker. Gotta hope the Steelers lose 2 of their next 4 - which is possible, but their offense is playing lights out at the moment.

    The pessimistic dude is right, the Jets need to win out. 3-1 won't really do it.

    Play around with different scenarios here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

    I have:

    1st seed: NE 13-3, Cincy 13-3, Denver 12-4, Houston 9-7, Pittsburgh 11-5, KC 10-6 with us missing out finishing 10-6

     

    Hard to see KC losing another ... yes, they've 3 extremely winnable games, but they finish the season with Oakland at home - the same team they just beat on the road who still had play off hopes (but won't come Week 17).

    I'd argue Pitt are our bigger rivals, and the Oakland game could be the decider against us on tie breakers (% record in common games).

    But I agree that out of KC, Pitt and us, we are the lest likely to qualify. Pitt have a brutal two week stint coming up, but we have to take care of our own business first and foremost.

  14. This

    Bullock has kicked well, for us, in a small sample size - but usually when there's a lynch mob running you out of town - life wasn't rosey.

    Folk was money for us (3rd best in Jets history) Touch-back ratio wasn't high but I'll take the guy who puts the points on the board.

    Bullock was run out of town based on a small sample size, IMHO ... he missed 2 PATs and one FG earlier this year (and that's with the new PAT rules).

    Last year, although he missed one 20-29 and 2 30-39 kicks (the sort you could call "routine"), he hit 7 of 8 at 40-49 and 4 of 5 from 50+.

     

  15.  

    Texans were 3-1 heading into the Jets game.

     

     

    People read the press clippings early in the year - Texans at 1-4 - and wrote them off as garbage. Then the Dolphins beat down reinforced that (incorrect) perception.

    Just like people wrote off the 1-5 KC Chiefs. The same Chiefs who are now on a 6 game win streak and could easily extend that to 10 and the #5 seed.

     

  16. For the year, Folk has 13 TBs on 39 kick-offs (33.3%). Bullock has 11 TBs on 21 kick-offs (52.4%).

    And before you ask, Folk's career numbers are a touch under 20%, his last 4 years are 30.5%. Bullock is a touch under 50% (4 year career).

    FG wise- career for Folk is 80.6; Bullock is 81.7. If you take last 4 years only (to compare more accurately), Folk is 83.9 on FGs. 

    Breaking down by distance (again, last 4 years) :

    Bullock

    20-29      94.1%

    30-39      91.3%

    40-49      76.7%

    50+         50%

    Folk

    20-29      96.8%

    30-39      90.6%

    40-49      60%

    50+         73.3%

    That's quite surprising, to me ... Folk has struggled at 40-49 (3 of 6 this year) but is very good from 50+ (2 of 2 this year). Even Folk's career number at 40-49 is lower than Bullock to date (71.1).

    So it depends what you're looking for ... Bullock is more reliable on the 40-49 kicks, but Folk has been superior on the 50+.

    I guess it comes down to Folk post-injury - can he still do it - and money.

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