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jamesr

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Posts posted by jamesr

  1. 12 minutes ago, jetsons said:

    When moving into the top 5 you can throw all those numbers out the window... that trade is NO WHERE Worth the Value. 😉

    Way too many hypotheticals involved ... suffice to say KC would be crazy to give up most of their draft to get a guy who will still be on the board many picks later where he'll cost them far less. Whatever the rumour mill is churning out at the time about other teams being "interested".

  2. 16 minutes ago, PackerNation said:

    Haha, and yes, "the book" isn't official on what GMs go by when making a trade. A lot of things factor in a trade. There isn't some set official chart they use.

    The Packers and Chiefs(2 contenders) both will probably draft a WR in the first so the rumors are coming fast and furious. 

    Never a dull moment in draft month.😏

    I'm not saying there's one "standard chart" - every team will have their own system and will likely tweak it based on many more variables (strength of draft etc). But there's no way they just "wing it" and go with a gut feel on what seems fair / not fair.

    Teams also have to avoid getting into a pissing contest too ... otherwise they'll end up over paying / overdrafting a guy just to say they "won". Like those eBay auctions for a $100 item where two people get all competitive and end up paying $200 for it. Because, you know, they "won". ;-)  

     

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  3. 23 minutes ago, jetsons said:

     

    nah... I know who Georger Pickens is ... I'm just confused over your original statement... doesn't make sense.

    The Chiefs 2 1st rd picks (29 & 30) are like high 2nd rounders & their second 2nd rd pick (62) like a high 3rd... But the Jets 1st rd pick IS the 4th pick in the entire draft... so Yes, the Jets Can Surely get the Chiefs 2 1st's & a 2nd for their 4th... For what it's worth I wouldn't make that trade.

    Jets #4 pick = 1800 points

    KC # 29, #30 and #50 pick = 640+620+400 = 1660 points

    KC would need to throw in their #94 (124 points) to mostly even it up, if you're going by the book. That would leave them with a 2, two 4s and some 7s. You're more likely looking at some sort of future picks / players instead.

    So yes, we would expect to get those picks if KC wanted to move up. But given the cost it is unlikely that the offer will be made. So technically both statements are correct. ;-)  

    • Upvote 1
    • Haha 1
  4. 6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

    Feels like Douglas will eventually complete a trade for one of these receivers before the draft and then quietly dump Mims on the Cowboys for a fifth when no one is paying attention. I don’t think Douglas wants any part of drafting another wideout, especially this year. He knows he has to get ten year starters with these firsts. 

    At first I read that as has to get ten starters ... which is probably also true, but highly unlikely! :D 

    • Upvote 1
    • Haha 1
  5. 59 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    Correlation doesn't mean it happens 100 % of the time, and I wasn't suggesting it does by saying "100 %".  I was saying it's 100 % factual to suggest that a high RAS score is indeed highly correlated with pass rusher success.

    Ice cream sales, for instance, are highly correlated with shark attacks.  It doesn't mean every time a kid buys an ice cream cone there's also going to be a shark attack that day.  It just means shark attacks are far more likely to occur in the summer than any other time of year.  Much the same way, high athleticism makes it far more likely a pass rusher will have success, and far more unlikely that a pass rusher will not if he lacks elite athleticism.

    Don't argue math stuff if you don't have a basic understanding of how it works.  I know very little but I at least have some basic understanding of how a correlation works.

    Also have to be careful not to mix up correlation and causation ...

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kjh2110/the-10-most-bizarre-correlations

     

    • Upvote 2
  6. 1 minute ago, doitny said:

    but thats a factor too besides the arm length. no combine and no pro day. there is alot of missing info on him. maybe too much for alot of teams to take so high. 

    and are we sure NFL teams had him ranked so high? or was alot of that media hype cause he was the best Center. looking around if he turns out to be good he will have the shortest arm length for a good Center EVER!. and he plays the lowest value position on the team. now maybe a team like the Bengals who have a much better roster can take a chance but not us for many reasons.

    1. if we take an OL in rd 1 ( god help me) then were not picking a Center in rd 2. 2 out of our top 4 picks on the OL is ridiculous. 

    2. if we dont take an OL in rd 1 or 2 then we need a young backup  thats better than Fenney and McDermott. and were not going to use a 2nd and a 3rd on the OL. 

    No we're not. Mocks may do, and teams possibly do, but we'll never know for sure.

     

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  7. 9 hours ago, choon328 said:

    Edge is the most important position on defense and more of a need than CB. Why would they ever pass up an Edge at 4 for a CB in that scenario?

    Not saying that this is the scenario - but if the Edge is a Bryan Thomas prospect and the CB is a Darrelle Revis prospect, who would you choose? Or what if the edge is a Vernon Gholston prospect?

    Purely hypothetical, but you have to look at the player and the position combined, and not just draft a position because you need that position. 

    • Upvote 2
    • Post of the Week 1
  8. 1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

    You act like GM's don't use this metric.

    GMs will use the metric - but not as the be all and end all. And this is where I think that the claim that Linderbaum is "dropping" is more to do with mock drafts than actual GM draft boards.

    None of us know the exact way that teams put their boards together, but if they're significantly altering them as a result of combines and workouts it would suggest they shouldn't be running a team, IMO. Let's say the Jets had an evaluation of Linderbaum based on their scouting reports and scored him as 78 / 100. Combine and so on could potentially increase that to 79 or 80, or decrease it to 77 or 76. But if they significantly change their rating - like up to 90 or down to 60 - then they need to look long and hard about why this is the case.

    Mock drafts on the other hand are more throwaway - and if you just publish the same one every week or month, you don't get the clicks. You've almost got to have a "hot take" with guys rising and falling to get interest and stand out from all the other mocks. How often do these analysts write a new piece of "Player X still looks like a mid-second round draft pick"? They hype up 40 times and hand size and how a player can jump out of a swimming pool to create interest and attention - whether or not it actually matters.

  9. 4 hours ago, doitny said:

     

    guys his stock isnt dropping cause he is a center, or cause he cant run a cone,  its dropping cause his arms are so short. and they aren't getting any longer. 

     

    Are you saying that scouts and GMs looked at film, rated him a first round pick, then saw a measurement and decided he wasn't that good anymore?

    His arms didn't just shrink in the wash ... the whole notion that his position on draft boards is changing is laughable to me. He may be dropping down on MOCK drafts, but I doubt that teams have done a 360 on him because of a measurement.

    I guess Kyle Hamilton will be in the 2nd round too after his 40 time? 🤨

  10. 20 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

    Signing all those 1yr FA contract sucks b/c it means we have 20 holes to fill every offseason.

    or

    Signing all those 1yr FA contracts is great b/c that gives JD 20 opportunities to improve the roster every offseason.

    The way I see it, it's a good way of "auditioning" the FA signings ... on two fronts.

    1 - are they performing at a level that makes them worth an increased contract

    2 - have our draft picks worked out well enough that we don't need to give them an increased contract

    E.g. everyone thinks we're done at TE because we signed two FAs. But in two years we need to either replace or re-sign them  ... only way we can replace is if we draft and develop in advance. So it gives flexibility to draft for talent rather than need and look to get better, younger and cheaper. BUT - if it doesn't work out you have a decent vet you can extend so you don't have a new hole to fill.

    • Upvote 1
  11. 4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    Those weren’t stars, and many here recognized that the moment the players were signed.  They were merely paid star money that their previous teams were very aware weren’t worth that kind of coin. 

    Teams rarely let actual stars walk in FA or trade them.  And when they do, those players are able to pick their destinations, meaning they aren’t choosing the Jets.  

    We tend to sign the "imploding" stars rather than the burgeoning ones ... LeVeon Bell WAS a star, but not at the time that we signed him.

    The really good teams make their own stars. The wannabe good teams trade for these stars or overpay for them because they don't make their own.

    • Upvote 1
  12. 1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

    Upon reflection, both of these teams were allegedly going after Watson and both, obviously, whiffed. This trade sets the Saints up to make a move this year for Willis, and sets Philly up to reap Bryce Young next year, presuming the Saints start Willis at some point and win <6 games. 

    I think they'd have to be smitten with Willis in that case - giving up a future first where you realistically won't win a lot of games is quite a price, especially as they'll still have to trade up again to get him ... and they've already spent significant future capital.

  13. Seems odd to do this move if it's just "step one" in another trade up - without knowing what trade ups will need / who will be available. Unless they have already got some potential deals in place on a verbal agreement.

    A point that was made that makes sense - NO need to get younger and cheaper; they could be trying to accelerate that by buying an extra 1 in a draft where the "sweet spot" is supposedly the 2nd half of Round 1 / Round 2. They get two immediate starters this year instead of one, and aren't bound to specific positions of need etc.

    As usual it'll all come down to who they pick ... NO do have some odd habits on that front. ;-)

     

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  14. 9 hours ago, Dcat said:

    Eagles are doing this for one reason. Insurance that they have the 2023 draft capital to replace Hurts if they are not happy with him after year 3.  That's the reason. The only reason.  It's not because this draft sucks.  It's because they may decide to move on.  This is a BIG year for Hurts.

    There's also the added benefit of not having three first rounders all coming up for options / renewals all at once ... this makes it 2 and 2 rather than 3 and 1. Plus additional later picks for flexibility on trades etc.

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  15. 6 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

    I don’t know if this is true, but definitely sounds plausible. And if it is true, I’m an even bigger fan of BA than I already was 

    It's what was quoted in the NFL.com article.  https://www.nfl.com/news/bruce-arians-retiring-as-buccaneers-head-coach-todd-bowles-to-succeed-him

    Arians exact words are as follows:

    Quote

     I wanted to ensure when I walked away that Todd Bowles would have the best opportunity to succeed. So many head coaches come into situations where they are set up for failure, and I didn't want that for Todd. Tom (Brady)'s decision to come back, along with Jason and his staff doing another great job of keeping the core of this team intact during free agency, confirmed for me that it was the right time to pass the torch to Todd.

    Assuming that's the real motivation behind this, it's a very stand-up move to make by Arians.

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  16. 38 minutes ago, maury77 said:

    I’m looking forward to half the board claiming Douglas should win executive of the year after the team wins 5 games.

    If the Jets only have 5 wins, all he'll win is a new seat ... one which is much, much hotter than the one he currently owns. ;-)  

  17. 22 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

    It was only a matter of time, though surprised Arians did this after the news of Brady returning.

     

     

    Arians didn't want to drop Bowles into a situation where he starts a rookie / journeyman QB after years of success and become the fall guy. Brady coming back makes for a far easier transition situation.

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  18. Best strategy for the Panthers - IMHO - is to build the team up around the QB position this year (OL especially) and position yourself to draft a guy next year (or trade / FA etc). This way you can have the situation of new coach, new QB, nicely aligned for a proper reset.

    Of course, the GM himself could also get jettisoned, which makes it unlikely that this will happen. Which is the conundrum of drafting for the best interests of the team vs. drafting to try to save your own job.

     

    • Upvote 2
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