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Paradis

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Posts posted by Paradis

  1. 7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

    Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

    QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

    I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

    Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

    Below were the resulting buckets:

     

    1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

    • Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
    • Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
    • Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
    • Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
    • Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
    • Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
    • Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
    • Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
    • Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
    • Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
    • Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
    • Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
    • Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
    • Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

     

    2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

    • Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
    • Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
    • David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
    • Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
    • Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
    • Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
    • Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
    • Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
    • Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
    • Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
    • Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
    • EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
    • Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
    • Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
    • DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
    • Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

     

    3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

    • Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
    • Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
    • Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
    • Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
    • Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

     

    4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

    • Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
    • Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
    • Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
    • Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
    • Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
    • Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
    • Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
    • Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
    • Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
    • Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
    • Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
    • Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
    • Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

     

    5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

    • Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
    • Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
    • Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
    • Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
    • Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
    • Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
    • Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

     

    6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

    • Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
    • Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
    • Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
    • Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
    • JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
    • Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
    • Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
    • Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
    • Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

     

    7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

    • Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
    • Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
    • Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
    • Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
    • Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
    • Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

     

    8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

    • Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
    • J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
    • Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
    • Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
    • Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
    • Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
    • Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
    • Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
    • Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

     

    By the numbers:

    • Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
    • Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
    • Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
    • Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

     

    So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

     

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    Nice list. Lot of a names/faces in there... lol Cade McNown. 

    No statistician would be able to draw a significant correlation coefficient from this... all it tells me is that coaches matter. they know when to hit the gas and when to pull the plug.  

  2. 5 minutes ago, Jetsfan4life90 said:

    Wouldn't it be the Jets? NE would still only have 7 wins and Jets would win a tiebreaker currently between Miami and Buffalo because of the H2H matchups so far. 

    Correct. But somehow they’ll wind up in first. You’ll see. 6 teams will tie or something galactically suspicious 

    • Upvote 3
  3. 4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

    In Saleh’s presser today he was asked about playing Zonovan over Robinson.  His response focused on Knight being a better north/south runner and Robinson needing to take what yards were there instead of looking for the ‘home run’.  Interestingly, it’s similar to the criticism levied on Wilson, compared to White.  

    Finally I couldn’t help but observe that it’s only the offense that seems to have all these issues.  QB, RB and WR have all had some form of drama, but nothing on the defense.  Is that merely a coincidence?

    Well, i'm no psychic -- but I don't think LaFlower puts his dick on the table weekly, just to let 'em know....

    Thus they have to rely on more rudimentary methods of performance mgmt w/ the O

  4. 4 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

    Seems like the Jets may have a long term RT on their hands

    a 5th rounder from E michigan if memory serves... THAT's what winning teams do, hit on players later in the draft by finding those diamonds in the smaller programs (vs taking someone who's been exposed in the p5 and hoping it you can fix it)

    • Upvote 3
  5. 3 hours ago, Untouchable said:

    I think we’re up sh*ts creek without a paddle in regards to QB, to be honest.

    Jets fans feel nice and rosy right now, sure…but I’m reasonably sure that it’s akin to how Washington fans have felt about Tyler Heineke for the last couple of years.

    Sure, White is probably the best you have in correlation to your current starter, but who truly buys him as a 5+ year solution?

    White looked in command today, as he has largely done throughout his 4 starts minus the Buffalo disaster last year.

    But the fact remains that this was the first full game he has made it through without some sort of injury.

    I think this is shaping up to be a lesser version of the 2009/2010 Jets squads.

    Where we had a Top 2-3 defense, great running game (now solid), and great OL (now solid) coupled with a sizable question mark at QB.

    I guess we’ll see how it plays out.

    I would love for White to step up and prove he’s the guy, but something tells me we’ll be constantly debating Garoppolo vs Carr vs drafting the highest rated QB on the board from January throughout March/April.

    I'm uncharacteristically more optimistic than you -- but eitherway, at least we're moving forward. I felt like it was a charade with ZW. If ZW 2.0 comes out of this in the future, great, but 1.0 needed to die. 

    • Upvote 2
    • Post of the Week 1
  6. 2 hours ago, bonkertons said:

    In my mind, if we move on from Wilson this upcoming offseason, he's going to be cut. 

    Dude. It’s been 30 seconds since he was demoted. We’ll see how he shows up next offseason in training camp. “Watch and learn” works for some. 

    • Upvote 3
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