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jvill 51

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Everything posted by jvill 51

  1. Without getting into any effort questions (and I have no idea why they lined GW up tight to the line and then had him do nothing?) both of these plays to me represent the next step I want to see Zach take in his development. The first play should have been 6. Miami drops into Tampa 2, and Moore’s route is going to come open between the 2 safeties and over the dropping LB. Ball should be thrown to the X or around there. Stills can be misleading, but watch the video back at the break point and you’ll see there’s a window there for a couple beats where it’s open. The good thing is, Zach reads the coverage correctly, quickly, and gets his eyes from his first read to Moore. Again, if you watch the video focusing on Zach’s eyes you’ll see him progress to Moore. But he hesitates, either because of the flashing pressure, or because he’s unsure if he can get it over that Tampa backer. By the time he climbs the pocket to avoid the pressure he has to throw it away. I really want to see him rip that ball in there. I think he doesn’t because he’s being cautious, and because just last week he threw a 3rd down interception in field goal range. In itself that’s a good thing, progress from last week on situational awareness. And it’s for sure a tough throw. But he absolutely has the ability to make the throw, we’ve seen it, and he can make it in a safe way. The Jets drafted him 2nd overall because he can make those types of throws, and as his confidence grows I want to see him pull the trigger on that. The second play I’ve referenced a couple of times in different threads, but Zach is late on it. Based on leverage it’s obvious very early in the route that Moore is going to come open. The DB is playing way inside and has his hips towards the middle of the field. This ball needs to be out at the breakpoint of the route. It’s a little tough because he’s rolling to his left and needs to get his hips around, but right here I want to see him get those feet set and deliver. Instead he keeps rolling and doesn’t release it until we’ll after Moore’s break, where the DB has a chance to recover and the throw needs to be way more precisely located, making Moore have to make a sideline grab. You can say Moore should have made it, but Zach upped the degree of difficulty on both ends substantially by not just letting it rip when he saw it. I think both of these plays come down to the same thing: trust what you’re seeing and deliver with anticipation and confidence. Zach did a great job in this game of reading of the defense. The dolphins threw a ton of different looks at him and rotated coverages often and he didn’t flinch and didn’t get fooled. The next step is to not fool himself.
  2. That ball should have been on Moore as soon as he came out of his break. Location was fine, but if he pulls the trigger earlier he doesn't have to throw nearly as safe of a ball. I wouldn't say its a miss, but that was on Zach. One of the few mistakes I thought he made in an otherwise clean and efficient game.
  3. They played the winless Texans who had a grand total of 6 points scored deep into the 4th quarter. Trevor stunk yesterday. Trying to couch it like his team was hopelessly outmatched and he's going down guns blazing is both lame and doesn't help your case.
  4. jvill 51

    Benchmark

    Haven't seen the all 22 from this play yet, but from the stands it seemed like Zach was very late on that throw. He also didn't have to be so safe with the location, Moore was pretty open. Still, overall a very solid day stacked on top of a dominant 4th quarter from the week prior. Good stuff.
  5. Lit up? Didn’t they give up something like 200 total yards?
  6. Not to be that guy, but I will be that guy when it comes to win probability numbers. There are 10 point 4th quarter comebacks all the time. If we automatically discounted those as smoke and mirrors because 90% of the time there's no comeback (or however they're calculating whatever version of win probability you're referencing), then we're discounting a lot of great wins from a lot of great teams / QBs. They didn't also need the late pick to have a shot, I don't know where this idea is coming from. They got the late pick, and it helped sure, but if the Steelers had simply run the ball there and made a long field goal the Jets still get the ball back with over 2:00-3:30 left and 1-3 timeouts plus the 2 minute warning, with maybe slightly worse field position? If that scenario happens and the rest of the game plays out the way it did, are we now not going to call it smoke and mirrors? Seems pretty silly. And also gives little credit to the defense for making a play. This wasn't a busted coverage, followed by an onside kick recovery and a short field drive, all inside of 2 minutes. The Jets drove the length of the field twice, and got a defensive stop in between. Idk, calling that smoke and mirrors and lucky renders any close game down to a silly tit for tat in which no side earns the victory, the other one just blows it.
  7. Huh? They had just called a run and lost 5 yards the play before the pick, and there was 3:45 on the clock when they threw the pick. If they run twice there they more than likely don't come close to getting a first down, have to attempt a long field goal, and whether they make it or not give the ball back to the Jets in a one score game with either 3:30ish (if the Jets use 2 timeouts) or 2:10ish (if they don't use timeouts) left to play. In neither scenario is the game over, and the play calling didn't save anything except maybe a couple of timeouts.
  8. If you want to call the Cleveland game smoke and mirrors, fine, no issue with that. How was the Steelers game smoke and mirrors, unless we're taking the angle that any 4th quarter comeback is somehow illegitimate?
  9. Those stats could be accurate, not sure. But just off the top of my head the big play to Garrett Wilson and the 4th down conversion to Corey Davis were both against man coverage. I believe the TD to Corey Davis was as well, but I’d have to go back and double check that one. The other big 4th quarter chunks, the 1st down pass to Davis to start the final drive and his last pass of the game to Davis which put them in the red zone, were both against zone.
  10. He was definitely better against zone than man last year, that is true. Not true that the Steelers just sat in zone in the 4th though, particularly on the first TD drive they mostly played man.
  11. He can go out of bounds though. Clock is stopping after that play for the 2 minute warning whether he goes down in bounds or not. May have been tough, and I’m sure he’s not thinking about that in the moment. But even assuming it wouldn’t have been possible to go down or go out of bounds at the 1 after the cutback, then lowering his shoulder and driving for the first instead of cutting back for the TD was the right play even if he came up short or got knocked out of bounds (which was irrelevant).
  12. If Chubb goes down (or out of bounds) at the 1 they kneel 3 times and the game is over. In fact, if Kareem Hunt doesn’t go out of bounds twice before that, they could have knelt down before Chubb’s run. Cleveland’s RBs completely bungled the end of game situation, not sure how there’s much of a dispute.
  13. Maybe noise isn’t the right technical term. But Flacco threw for 2 TDs and 40% of his yards in the last 2 minutes of the game. Neither is close to sustainable over the long term, and when you’re working with such small samples the weighting (which is valuable over the long term) can skew the results (or rather, the analytical value of the results) a bit in the short term.
  14. Interesting. I’d imagine this swings things quite a bit considering nearly half of Flacco’s production came in the last 2 minutes of the game. Not that the production shouldn’t count, but adds some more statistical noise in an already small sample size.
  15. I was as big a fan of Fields coming out of the draft as anyone, but he was mostly awful last year and has been awful this year. This slap fight over whether Wilson or Fields has been better thus far is sad. I still would have selected Fields over Wilson in the draft, but that is based entirely on the college film; neither of them has done anything on an NFL field to move the needle in any direction other than down.
  16. I think it’s probably mostly the bold. He was genuinely awful in week 1 (do they release these stats after 1 game? Curious where he would have ranked), but if you look around the league so far how many QBs have actually played well? Without looking at their rankings, I think it’s fair to say 15-20 teams around the league have gotten subpar QB play on the whole, with a bunch of the top guys laying an egg or two to start the year. What we got out of Flacco week 2 is probably the most we can ask for. With good protection he can keep things mostly on schedule and hit a few chunk plays, while mixing in a few bonehead plays and errant throws. And when you look at the state of QB play in general you realize that’s not so bad. Just look at the NFC: I think it’s fair to say 10 of the 16 teams are trotting out mediocre at best to objectively bad QBs. Flacco is probably right on that borderline: with good protection he can get the ball to his playmakers and run an above average offense, with anything approaching worse than average protection you’re going to get a mediocre to awful offensive day. Not the worst thing in the world, and should provide minimum acceptable standards going forward.
  17. A lot of people are blaming game script for this but I don’t think that tells the whole story. They were very pass happy against Baltimore, even in neutral game script situations (non 2 minute, game within one score). Believe they were over 70% passing in those situations. Against Cleveland, that number was around 63% (30-18 by my count). They had 17 passes and 2 runs in 2 minute situations, which skews the numbers quite a bit in the overall split, but 63% in close game situations still would have ranked at or near the top of the league last year. Still a small sample size, but agreed that I’d like to see those number trend more towards the league average given the talent in the backfield. But, for the first time in ages, there are a ton of mouths worth feeding on offense and I think you’ll see the distribution vary a decent amount weekly depending on matchups/defenses adjusting week to week.
  18. I wouldn’t risk QB1 in any more meaningless preseason games tbh
  19. jvill 51

    Our DC

    Concerns are warranted given last season. They aren’t based on two drives in the first preseason game playing soft zones with zero blitzes and half the starters not playing.
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